Impeachment history reveals risk for both Trump and Dems

Gordon L. Weil

Impeachment is in the air. 

The Mueller report made no criminal charges against President Trump, but questioned some of his attempts to obstruct the inquiry.  Some in Congress believe he should be impeached for those actions.

Impeachment is almost always political, and it could well be in this case.  Only Democrats are considering impeachment.  They understand that impeachment would be a political act.

It can be voted by a majority of the House of Representatives, where Democrats now enjoy control.  After impeachment, the Senate can convict by a two-thirds vote.  That would require some GOP senators to vote to convict.  That's quite unlikely, making the House vote little more than a gesture.

For House Democrats, impeaching Trump might only be worth doing if it helped them in the 2020 elections.  If not, it could place a burden on Democratic candidates.  Obviously, nobody knows the answer.

In fairness, some Democrats believe that Trump's actions to try to kill the Mueller investigation did truly transgress the limits on presidential powers.  They may believe that the issue needs to be tested for the sake of history, not only current politics.

That possibility could have influenced Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller.  Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Attorney General William Barr went along.  All three are Republicans.  Rather than charging Trump with criminal acts, they may have chosen to leave only the impeachment option.

The Constitution contains the power of impeachment to help ensure that limits could be placed on federal officials, not only presidents, who engage in criminal activity or exceed their powers.  The House, as prosecutor, and the Senate, as court, decide.  The Supreme Court has ruled that the judiciary is not involved.

The penalty for impeachment may be political embarrassment; the penalty for conviction is expulsion.  Neither is the same as a court judgment of criminal guilt.

Several impeachment proceedings have resulted in conviction and expulsion, usually when connected to a criminal act.  But in the most important cases, no conviction was obtained.

In 1805, the House, controlled by Thomas Jefferson's Democratic-Republican Party, impeached Samuel Chase, a Federalist-appointed Supreme Court justice, who had been openly hostile to Jefferson.  Some of Jefferson's supporters voted against impeachment as did some in the Senate, which did not convict.

The Jeffersonians were politically motivated in taking action against Chase.  But some of them put the independence of the judiciary above partisanship.  Federalist judicial appointees would survive, even as presidential politics changed.

The first attempt to remove a president came when Republicans tried to oust Andrew Johnson, a Democratic senator who had been Lincoln's second-term vice president.  Republicans wanted to transform southern society, not merely suppress secession.  Johnson wanted to go easy on the South, allowing it to pursue racist policies. 

By a straight partisan vote, with southern Democrats not yet back in Congress, Johnson was impeached.  The Senate missed conviction by one vote, after seven Republicans voted to acquit.  Contrary to myth, none paid a political price for his vote. 

Maine's William Pitt Fessenden, a Bowdoin graduate, cast the first Republican vote against conviction.  He disliked Johnson's policy, but rejected using conviction for partisan political purposes.  In the end, Johnson prevailed, when a fully restored Congress backed his policy.

In 1974, a bipartisan House committee vote recommended impeachment of President Richard Nixon for covering up his campaign's break-in at the Democratic National Committee offices.  His actions may have been criminal.   

When Nixon learned that many Senate Republicans would vote to convict him, he resigned.  The elections that year yielded a crushing Democratic majority.

In 1999, the House impeached President Bill Clinton by bipartisan vote for lying to investigators about his personal, non-political transgressions.  The Senate refused to convict.  

Several Republicans, including Maine's Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, opposed conviction.  A Republican won the presidency in 2000, but the party lost seats in Congress.

History shows heavy, if not absolute, partisanship in the impeachment process.  Only in Nixon's case was impeachment connected to probable criminal action as president.  Only in his case did it, or the threat of it, work.

Because impeachment is a political act, the Democrats must make a political judgment.  Will they help or hurt themselves politically by impeaching Trump without winning conviction and possibly without a single Republican vote?  History goes both ways.

Besides, impeachment might not prevent a Trump comeback.  Federal judge Alcee Hastings, impeached and convicted, is now Florida's longest serving member of Congress.  Andrew Johnson returned to the Senate and was sworn into office by the vice president who, as a senator, had voted to convict him.

Assange, Wikileaks endanger independent press

Gordon L.  Weil

Julian Assange creates problems. 

The Wikileaks founder does it not only by releasing stolen documents, but also by his own release from the Ecuadorian embassy in London.

Assange enjoyed Ecuador's diplomatic protection, because he feared the British would send him to the U.S. to be tried for releasing secret documents.  The former Ecuadorian president shared his dislike of the U.S.  His successor differed and had Assange expelled.

Bradley (later, Chelsea) Manning was an American soldier who stole documents and passed them to Wikileaks, an online news group aimed at embarrassing governments by exposing their secret communications.  The theft was illegal and Manning, subject to military law, was imprisoned.

But the revelation itself of government secrets is a function of the free press, guaranteed by the Constitution.  Was Assange's action protected by freedom of the press?  Could he be arrested for receiving documents he knew were stolen?

A free press can keep an independent watch on government.  It represents the public, which cannot exercise control of supposedly democratic institutions if it lacks information on what its leaders are doing.

In a mass democracy, government often sees itself as separate from citizens, not subject to them.  A free press tries to help the public control their government, especially if that means revealing matters officials would prefer to keep secret.

Of course, there must be limits on what should be published. For example, the media should not directly cause the death of people or reveal actions under way that directly affect national security.

Assange's supporters see him as a member of the free press.  To hold government accountable, they find it acceptable to publish stolen documents.  Otherwise, government could shield itself behind a claim of secrecy.

The father of the concept that people have the right to break the law for a higher purpose was Henry David Thoreau, a Massachusetts man who inspired Gandhi and Martin Luther King, Jr.  He accepted that, if caught in a violation of law, a person might have to pay the penalty, even going to jail. 

The federal government has not charged Assange with a crime for publishing secrets.  Instead, he is charged with assisting Manning in breaking the law by stealing documents.  His supporters believe that even that action is protected by freedom of the press.  Assange believes he cannot get a fair trial in the U.S.

The legal war in London about turning Assange over to American justice may continue for years.  If he faces a court in the U.S., the system will be tested to see that he gets a fair trial.

But there's more.  Assange strongly dislikes the U.S. and Hillary Clinton, the 2016 Democratic presidential candidate. As an independent journalist, he is certainly entitled to criticize and embarrass both.

American intelligence agencies and the media have found that Russia tried illegally to influence the presidential election, favoring Donald Trump and opposing Clinton.  The Russians hacked the computers of the Democratic National Committee and obtained information that could harm the Clinton effort.

The Russians, well aware of Assange's opinions, turned the information over to Wikileaks.  That organization knew that it was relying on a source trying to undermine the American system of government, but published the hacked emails.

Assange and Wikileaks allowed their status as independent news providers to be exploited by knowingly helping the Russians' anti-American moves.  At that point, they shed their independence and became weapons in a war by one government against another.  In doing so, they may have lost their right to be considered journalists.

It remains unclear if Assange will ever be held accountable for assisting the Russian scheme.  If his actions are rated as just plain old journalism, public confidence in the media, already battered, will suffer even more.  Loss of independent scrutiny of government is a serious danger to the American system of government.

Faced with groups like Wikileaks, the government and others, like the Democrats, must also show greater discipline. Electronic communication is not absolutely secure and may never be.  People must recognize that any electronic message may find its way to the public.

Of course, there will be real secrets that need to be better protected.  How?

Commit less to writing.  Use more voice communication and faxes, which are far more secure than the Internet.  Avoid unimportant electronic communication, because what may seem trivial could turn out to be sensitive or open to distortion.

Above all, Americans should insist that their leaders disclose more and not hide behind the walls of secrecy they build.  But they will always need a free and independent press.

Trump seeks to end independent Fed

Gordon L. Weil

Remember the Great Recession of 2008? 

Thanks to prosperity since then, memory may have faded.  The steady growth in the American economy is largely the result of two-fisted government action by the president and the Federal Reserve.  They each used different tools.

Increased spending on public projects can help turn the economy around.  It pumps money into directly creating jobs, which produce even more jobs as the new income ripples through the country.

Soon after taking office, President Obama succeeded in getting Congress to adopt an economic stimulus that reached $831 billion.  Tax cuts were a big part of the package, along with building roads and other public facilities.  Some went to social benefit programs.  New federal debt paid the bill.

A GOP Congress denied Obama any more stimulus spending, but later it was willing to add to the public debt by adopting more tax cuts.  President Trump signed off on them, and the recovery continued.

The stimulus alone would not have brought the strong recovery.  Much of the sustained work was handled by the Federal Reserve.  On its own, it lowered interest rates, making borrowing easier for new homes and business expansion.

The Fed also stepped up lending to banks, so they could more easily offer mortgages and money for economic development.  By lowering interest rates and making more debt available, it used its powers to aid the economy.

Created in 1913, the Fed has mandates to fight inflation, when prices and interest rates rise too quickly, and to promote job creation.  Its moves affect all other banks and it serves as the federal government's bank, making it the central bank.  Other countries also have central banks.

The U.S. central bank is meant to operate outside of political control.  Its board members are appointed for 14 year terms.  The long terms are intended to insulate the Board, which receives no taxpayer funding, keeping it independent of the politics of the day.

The president and Congress may want the Fed to promote easy money, allowing them to take credit when running for reelection.  They are likely to be less concerned about long-term effects, whatever the Fed's responsibility.

When he was running for reelection in 1972, President Nixon induced the Fed chair to lower interest rates.  That produced a short-term push to the economy but led to huge inflation that hit under President Carter.

Now having slashed interest rates and bought enormous amounts of debt to beat the Great Recession, the Fed has few tools left to combat another downturn.  You cannot cut rates to stimulate the economy when they are already low. 

So the Fed has begun trying to rearm itself by gradually raising rates and reducing the amount of bank debt it holds.  By returning to normal levels, it will later be able to make cuts to help recovery in case of another downturn.  It has been going slowly, because there is little inflation.

Trump has promised great economic growth.  While he can take some of the credit for the sustained recovery, he wants levels of growth that would be unusually high.  This year, he is not achieving his goals, which probably would have eluded any president or policy.

He blames the failure to reach high growth rates on the Fed, including Jerome Powell, his own appointee as chair.  Trump believes that raising rates, even slowly and slightly, hampers the achievement of his forecast growth.  It's obvious he dislikes the Fed's independent monetary policy.

He scorns Powell, admitting he is "stuck" with the Fed chief, but keeps up his pressure.  Powell resists resigning.  But he has led the Fed to back off plans for more small rate boosts.

Trump has picked candidates for two open slots on the Board.  Stephen Moore is a political commentator with no academic or business background to help him with the complexities of monetary policy.  Herman Cain is a businessman who shows no understanding of the Fed.  Both have made misstatements about the Fed.

Trump's economics are misguided, designed only to win him an election, and his appointees, both Trump loyalists, would vote to decrease rates.  Nobody would worry about post-election inflation. 

The Fed committee that makes policy has 12 members.  So these appointees could not themselves change interest rates.  But they could politicize the Fed.

Congress created the Fed as an independent body.  It was meant to keep the economy on a steady course, not subject to political swings.

Will the Republican Senate refuse to confirm political appointees or appease Trump in hopes he will lead the GOP to electoral victory?

GOP deploys political "bluff" on Green New Deal

Gordon L. Weil

The country has been treated to a classic case of political theater, and few even knew about it.

People missed the cynical drama staged by Senate Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell mainly because much of the media spread what amounted to "fake" news.

The story began in January when some newly elected House Democrats launched a proposal dubbed "the Green New Deal."  The "New Deal" was meant to echo the broad social legislation enacted to combat the Great Depression in the 1930s.  The new version would bring sweeping economic and environmental action.

The proposals were ambitious and idealistic, reflecting deep concern about the deterioration of the environment and the income gap.  Opponents immediately ridiculed them, claiming they would outlaw everything from airplanes to cows' farts.

While it was obvious the proposals were a set of lofty objectives, backed by Senate Democrats running for president, they lacked detail.  They proposed no funding and aimed for success in ten years, which was clearly impossible.  Critics would claim they were impractical or would harm the economy.

No member of Congress expected that the Green New Deal could be adopted before the 2020 elections.  Some Democrats hoped to see if it could get the party on record in support of its goals.  Many others were wary of endorsing extreme and controversial proposals. 

Republicans relished the prospect of a split among Democrats and the possibility of being able to box the Democrats into a politically vulnerable endorsement of the proposal.  To them, the Green New Deal was not a challenge, but an opportunity.

McConnell himself proposed the Green New Deal bill in the Senate.  Republicans staged a symbolic floor debate to exaggerate and lampoon it.  The GOP leader had made sure that there would be no committee hearings on the bill and no possibility for other senators to amend it.

He then scheduled his bill for what has been called a "bluff vote."  Though the Republicans had proposed the bill, they really opposed it and would seek to kill it.  That was their bluff.  They apparently hoped that some Democrats, to please the party's most liberal wing, would err and vote for the proposal, causing an internal party split.

A couple of weeks ago, the bill was brought before the Senate.  Under today's practices, the Senate would first have to vote to end debate before the bill itself would be considered.  If the GOP blocked ending debate, the bill would theoretically remain alive.  In fact, it would be buried. 

The GOP could use this stealthy move to vote against their own bill without going on record in opposition to its lofty goals. 

The Democrats countered by deciding simply to vote "present" when their names were called.  In that way, they could avoid falling for the bluff.  With no favorable votes and not enough votes to end debate, the bill would effectively be permanently shelved.

Everybody knew the script.  The vote on cutting off debate followed predictable lines.  All Republicans voted against ending debate and Democrats, except for four, voted "present."

Three of the four were Democrats elected in normally Republican states.  Their votes, throw-aways because they did not affect the outcome, might help them burnish their credentials with GOP voters back home.

The fourth senator was Maine's Angus King.  He is an independent member of the Senate but is aligned with the Democrats.  He objected to the Green New Deal as being impractical, as did the Republicans and some Democrats, but he also objected to McConnell's bluff strategy.  Still, as an independent, he could vote this time with the GOP.

Then, the media coverage hid the whole unseemly ploy.  Virtually all news reports said the Senate had voted down the Green New Deal.  It surely would have done so if there had been a real vote, but the media downplayed or ignored that, above all, this was a "bluff vote" designed to split the Democrats.

No news reports noted the lack of the normal legislative consideration that would happen if the bill was taken seriously.  The media allowed the GOP to get away with its bit of theater.  It made no effort to explain what was in the bill or the reasoning behind it. 

In school, students may be taught how laws are made in the federal government.  The formal system described in the schoolroom is gone, replaced by the kind of tactics used on the Green New Deal.  Can you find that fact in the evening news?

When government doesn't work, people may be angry.  But they often don't know why.