‘The Art of the Deal’ fails: the Wall, Brexit

President Trump and British Prime Minister May have something in common.  They consider themselves adept at what Trump has famously called “the art of the deal.”

Relying on their self-confidence, each has made a promise they could not keep.  They lacked the skill to pull off promises that were, in fact, impossible to keep.  They enter 2019 facing the likelihood of failure.

For Trump, it is the Wall, a forbidding structure to be built along the border with Mexico to keep out all illegal Latino immigrants.  His promise to build the Wall and have the Mexicans pay for its cost was the cornerstone of his campaign and, along with tariffs, his presidency. 

Trump tried to induce the Mexican president at least to say, without discussing any details, that Mexico would pay.  Trump would set the hook and reel in the Mexican later.  But he was talking with the proud leader of an independent country, not a New York real estate mogul, who would hardly agree to pay for the Wall.

The Wall as a barrier to immigration could not accomplish what Trump promised.  Most unauthorized immigrants or asylum seekers do not enter the U.S. by illegally crossing the border.  They overstay visitor visas or cross at border control points.  As for Mexicans, more are returning home than entering.

Having made the political promise, Trump stuck with his commitment for the Wall.  His fallback was that American taxpayers would foot the bill.

The art of Trump’s deals never reckoned with Congress.  The Democrats would oppose him and some Republicans, against government spending and skeptical of the proposal, would not support it.  Congress was willing to add funding for border security, but not the Wall.

Hardly the model of a savvy negotiator, Trump threw a tantrum.  If you do not fund the Wall now, he threatened, I will shut down the federal government.  The Democrats could accept that result, since Trump said he would take the responsibility.  They would refuse him the political trophy he badly wanted for the 2020 campaign.

The Wall was an impractical and impossible promise.  While it pleased some of Trump’s supporters, he was unable to negotiate successfully with either Mexico or Congress.  His bullying did not work, bringing a shutdown.  Does it matter whose fault that was?

Just as the Wall was the symbol of an impossible American way to keep out non-white immigrants, the United Kingdom embarked on a similar effort with similar results. 

Many British disliked both the free entry of Eastern European workers and following rules made by international officials, both essential parts of the European Union.  Promised that quitting the EU would save money, end immigration and allow the U.K. to recover some of its imperial glory, a narrow majority voted to leave the EU.

Without knowing what kind of deal should result, the U.K. simply served notice it would leave by March.  May’s negotiator claimed that his country held all the cards, when, in fact, it had none.  The biggest problem was how to handle Ireland. 

The Good Friday agreement, negotiated under the leadership of Maine’s George Mitchell, had ended bloody conflict in Northern Ireland.  It was helped because both independent Ireland and the 

Northern Ireland, part of the U.K., are members of the EU, and have no economic border.  What would happen if the U.K. left the EU?

At the same time, the British learned that many campaign promises could not be kept.  Leaving the EU cost the U.K. money.  Foreign workers were needed, but they began moving out.  Financial institutions, vital to the British economy, began to make plans to transfer to the Continent.

May tried to negotiate a compromise deal, but she was forced to accept continued EU domination to keep some of the essential benefits of membership.  The EU did not want to make leaving so easy that other countries might be tempted.

Leaving the EU was a promise that cannot be kept – at least not without economic hardship.  Nobody had an idea about Ireland.  The alternative must boil down either to decide to remain in the EU or quit cold turkey with consequences that might even lead to renewed bloodshed.

Political promises are often made to be broken.  Telling voters what they want to hear is much easier than working to produce results.  It takes some courage for leaders to admit a mistake and move on to practical solutions.

Trump and May are learning that failing to understand the limits of negotiating could turn out to be the path to defeat.

Trump creates damaging uncertainty

The biggest problem facing the U.S. is not immigration, health care or a trade war.

It is uncertainty.

The inability of business leaders, pension fund managers, foreign government heads, Congress and individuals to count on usual practices and policies has created deep worries.

The stock market is not a reliable measure of all these concerns, but its deep decline reflects that uncertainty.  Even its recovery might do little to restore more confidence about the future.

The source of the uncertainty is President Trump.  He makes the abrupt changes in policy and disregards others – leaders of Congress, heads of foreign governments, economic chiefs.  Decisions are suddenly announced, often via Twitter.

Nowhere is this more evident than in Trump’s approach to the economy.  In business, he is accustomed to borrowing money to finance his real estate purchases.  He favors low interest for his business interests and has naturally become an advocate of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates low.

The Fed has gradually raised interest rates from near zero, where they were set during the recession.  They remain at historically low levels.  But Trump blames falling stock prices on the modest rate increases and wants to fire the Fed chair, his own choice, in the mistaken belief he can change Fed policy.

The law intentionally makes Fed governors independent of political leaders.  Until now, no president has ever threatened to fire the Fed chair.  Trump’s menace and not the one-quarter-of- one-percent rate increase is a cause of market uncertainty and deep decline.

The partial government shutdown probably has little direct effect.  But the president’s insistence that the Democrats help him keep his signature campaign promise to build the Wall on the Mexican border creates uncertainty.  He allowed the shutdown when they would not agree to $5 billion for the Wall.

Why the uncertainty?  He had previously rejected the Democrats’ proposal of a full $25 billion for the Wall in return for creating a long path to citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants who had been raised in the U.S.  The shutdown was caused by uncertainty about just what deal he would accept.

He suddenly announced he would withdraw American troops in Syria. That has thrown the Middle East into turmoil and uncertainty about the future in Syria, because those troops were a check on both ISIS and the Russians.  He claimed victory over ISIS, “my only reason for being there during the Trump presidency.”

While he had the right to make the decision, he saw it in personal terms – “my only reason” – and not as a matter of national concern. That decision drove Secretary of Defense Mattis to give notice.  More uncertainty.

Then, when the media interpreted Mattis’ resignation letter as a rebuke of Trump, the president abruptly fired him, eliminating the possibility of an orderly transition in this most sensitive position.  More uncertainty.

Mattis was the latest in a parade of top Trump appointees to either quit or be fired.  Several cabinet agencies now lack confirmed leaders.  Trump is looking for his third chief of staff.  More uncertainty.

In trade, Trump appropriately took on China, which abuses its economic relationship with the U.S.  But he targeted all major American trading partners on the unbelievable grounds that their exports threatened U.S. national security. 

His attacks on allies, his failure to consult with them and his support for extreme right wing groups in their countries all create considerable worries in world affairs.  He has belittled them, even tossing a couple of pieces of candy to the German Chancellor to show his low regard for her.  More uncertainty.

He induced North Korea to suspend nuclear tests and missile launches and declared victory. Meanwhile, the secretive country built more launch facilities and a major nuclear test center.  

Trump’s declarations of success allowed China and Russia to ignore many of the sanctions on North Korea.  In Asia, more danger and uncertainty.

American voters say they want the two parties to cooperate to produce results. The recent criminal justice reform bill proves they can.  But the president repeatedly attacks the Democrats in the apparently mistaken belief he can intimidate them into going along with his demands.  They won’t.  More uncertainty.

Why should the average American care?

Uncertainty threatens the economy.  It will discourage investment, resulting in fewer jobs.  The worldwide trade war will cause price increases.  Government will be increasingly deadlocked.  As the stock market falls, pensions will lose value.  Risks abroad will increase and the U.S. will have to go it alone.

The only certainty may be the uncertainty Trump creates.

‘Elections have consequences’ – more partisan warfare

“Elections have consequences, Mr. President.”

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer reminded President Trump of that fact when they met to discuss border security.  He warned the president that politics in Washington will change as control of the House passes to the Democrats and his party’s Senate minority can stop many bills there.

Trump had enjoyed almost automatic support in Congress when both houses were under GOP control.  If he now thought he could sweet talk Democrats, the target of his most heated campaigning, to support him, Schumer would educate him on divided government.

Many Americans like the idea of divided government, believing it will promote compromise and produce needed legislation.  But Mr. Trump’s own party promptly revealed that belief was a mere illusion.  Politics is not about public service.  It is about power.  Politicians today don’t readily yield power.

In Michigan and Wisconsin, Democrats took governorships from the GOP.  In both states, Republican legislatures hastily passed laws stripping governors of their powers.  Outgoing Republican governors signed the bills. 

In the U.S. House of Representatives, where Republicans had whitewashed an investigation of Russian meddling in the 2016 elections, they still took time as they went out the door to hold more hearings on Hillary Clinton’s home email server.

The two states and the House may see the situation flip under the Democratic control.

The parties can cooperate.  The only congressional review of Russia’s 2016 election interference is being carried out by the Senate Intelligence Committee, where the two party leaders work together.  They are more worried by the threat to the American democracy than to either party.

But the general rule is partisan warfare.  Senate GOP Majority Leader Mitch McConnell whips Trump’s nominees onto federal district courts at an amazing pace, faster than ever before.  He wants no debate on them.  He is surely making some mistakes in his haste, but it is impossible to know who’s unqualified.

Like the Michigan and Wisconsin moves, he wants to reduce the Democrats’ future power should they win the presidency and other offices in 2020.  He blocked an Obama Supreme Court appointment, leaving a vacancy for more than a year, to await Trump appointees.

If there is any state where the consequences of elections were clear, it’s Maine.  There may have been no “blue wave” in the country, but there was one in Maine.  The governor and both Houses of the Legislature plus an added congressional seat are now under Democratic control.

The effect is immediate.  Governor-elect Janet Mills has named an experienced human services chief who is focused on, well, human services.  The new department head replaces a commissioner who seemed dedicated to reducing help for those in need.

Maine’s lesson may be that elections have consequences only when there’s a change in political control.  If the result is divided control, compromise may be more a matter of luck than responsiveness to the voters’ desire for results.

The next elections, less than two years away, may be a major test of Schumer’s message and Trump’s appeal.

The Republican Party is now largely Trump’s party, and he is expected to lead it into the campaign, unless he is derailed by his own actions.  Congressional and state candidates are likely to be his loyal supporters.  From the GOP viewpoint, the desired consequences would be more and better Trump.

The Democrats have a bigger tent, but can only have one presidential candidate.  Will they go with a candidate of change, like Sen. Bernie Sanders, or a more centrist leader, like Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar or Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown?  Either way, Democrats want to end up fully in charge.

There was one sleeper in this year’s elections, and it could produce the greatest consequences.  Following the 2020 elections, all states with two or more House members must redraw their congressional district lines to ensure each has the same population.  Traditionally, that is done by the legislature and governor.

In recent years, the GOP in states including Texas, North Carolina and Wisconsin has designed districts to its liking.  To avoid partisanship, under recent Supreme Court decisions, more states will let independent bodies set district lines.

If Democrats control state governments after 2020, they will run redistricting, influencing the composition of the House of Representatives for a decade.  This year, seven Democratic governors replaced Republicans, and they may be key players in drawing the new lines.  State legislative elections in 2020 will matter. 

Yes, Mr. President, elections have consequences.  We are about to find out the many ways that works.