Presidential candidates, now including oldsters, should name their running mates

Gordon L. Weil

The world is growing older.  Except for Africa south of the Sahara, the average age is increasing.

There are more old people thanks to medical advances that, together with lifestyle changes, help prolong life.  At the same time, there are fewer young people as parents choose to have smaller families.  While China ended its rule requiring one-child families, many Chinese seem to have grown accustomed to it.

The increase in the length of life is not consistent around the world or even in the U.S.  There is a 15-year difference in life expectancy between the wealthiest and poorest Americans, according to a report in London's Financial Times.

There's also a difference between people who keep employed, even in volunteer jobs or athletic activities, and those who become couch potatoes in retirement.  Keep active and you live longer and healthier.

One major factor in extending lives is a reduction in the number of smokers.  Smoking's toll shows up as people age. 

Obesity is the new smoking.  About one-third of Americans is obese and another third is overweight. This causes high health care costs and a lower American lifespan than in Japan, France, and Greece, among many others.  The median age in the U.S. is 38.  In Japan, it is 47.3 and, in Greece, 44.5.

Maine, at 44.6, has the highest median age of any state.  That makes the state a world leader.  What it learns about dealing with aging and improving the quality of life for older people could provide valuable tools for the rest of the country and even other countries.  Here's an economic development opportunity.

Longer lives are also having political effects.  A higher percentage of older people vote than do other age groups.  Traditionally mostly Republicans, they have begun to move toward the Democrats.  In political campaigns, older Americans should be added to the list of target groups like women, minorities and the young.

The most obvious effect of an older population is among the presidential candidates.  Bernie Sanders, 77, and Joe Biden, 76, lead the Democratic pack.  Donald Trump, 72, is the oldest person ever elected president.  Elizabeth Warren, 69, could end her first term at 75, older than Trump will end his.

Robert Kaiser, 76, a former editor of the Washington Post, worries about older presidents.  He writes the presidency is "perhaps the hardest job in the world."  Aging experts think it is a job for a person of 50 more so than one of 70, he says.

Because individuals differ from one another, general findings may not apply to every older person.  But studies show that, on almost all measures of intellectual ability, old people suffer in comparison with younger adults

It may be difficult for older people to admit the reduction in their memory or ability to handle complex tasks.  You can more easily recognize reduced lung capacity or muscle strength.  For older people, including presidential candidates, mental capacity slows down like physical ability.

Ronald Reagan is currently ranked as the oldest president, though Trump would pass him.  His deteriorating mental agility while in office was recognized.  That can be a factor for today's candidates.  Plus, older presidents have a significantly greater possibility of dying in office than usual. 

Presidential candidates make only one decision during the course of a campaign that will bind them if they gain the highest office.  And it is a decision they usually make in the euphoria of their victory just before or just after they have received their party's nomination.

The nominees pick their vice presidential running mates for a variety of reasons.  A man has picked a woman.  A black has picked a white.  A northerner has picked a southerner.  A Republican has picked a Democrat.  These moves were designed to "balance" the ticket and improve chances of winning.  All, except one, worked.

But the principal role of the vice president is to be a "heartbeat away" from being president.  In 1944, Democrat kingmakers were reasonably sure that Franklin D. Roosevelt would not live through his fourth term and selected Harry Truman, a man who knew his way around Washington, to succeed him.

Given the age of some of the presidential candidates, they should recognize voters are electing two people who could be president, not just a candidate and a ticket balancer.  Of course, if older candidates make a choice, others will have to follow.  The wisdom of their choices can then be a factor in our choice.

Then, the rest of us can focus on taking off a few pounds and keeping active.

Democrats worry about possible election conspiracy claims

Gordon L. Weil

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wants the Democratic presidential candidate next year to score a landslide victory over President Trump.

If he lost by a narrow margin, she worries that Trump would challenge the result, claiming there had been a conspiracy to rig the election.  He might then refuse to leave office at the end of his term. 

Her worry might seem far-fetched, but she notes that Trump continues to challenge Hillary Clinton's nearly three million popular vote majority in 2016.  He claims there was massive illegal voting for her, though nobody has produced any evidence of it.

Pelosi's solution would be for the Democrat to win by a large enough number of votes that it would be impossible to make a potentially believable claim that Trump's defeat resulted from massive vote fraud.

Whatever they say about focusing mainly on the issues, the Democrats all have one principal goal – getting Trump out of the Oval Office.  Some assert he has made the country ripe for a major move to the left.    

The Speaker argues that the party should pick a middle-of-the road candidate who could hold onto the Trump voters who voted for Democratic congressional candidates last year.  She does not see a winning answer to Trump politics being a radical turn to the left, as do some Democratic hopefuls. 

She is concerned that Trump does not like or respect constitutional limits and practice.  He could seek to override the limits on his term in office by declaring a conspiracy-driven national emergency.  Given the Supreme Court's partisan Bush-Gore decision in 2000, Trump might even hope for legal backing allowing him to hold onto power.

If this all seems like Nancy dreaming, it underrates the role of conspiracy thinking and false information in today's political scene.  Fantastic stories are offered as explanation of major claims.  "Facts" are created to support these tales, even if there is no evidence for them.

The Washington Post Fact Checker, generally regarded as the best in the country, has documented more than 10,000 times since he took office when Trump has made a statement that was not true.  Many are repetitions.  He relies on manufactured facts to support policies he advocates.

He claims that those who oppose his misstatements are producing "fake news."  It matters little to him that these reports can provide evidence.  Similarly, this way of viewing events might make possible charges of a conspiracy to commit vote fraud.

Just how widespread a conspiracy can extend is illustrated by the claim that vaccinations cause autism in children.  There is no evidence this is true.  The result has been the dangerous spread of measles and even some deaths.  The illness could have virtually been eliminated if people were vaccinated.

Trump's own persistent claim that President Obama was not born in the U.S. is another example of a widespread but false belief spread by a claim lacking evidence.  Obama finally produced his birth certificate, but even that was questioned.  In light of Trump's refusal to reveal his tax returns, Obama probably should have ignored him.

Who was responsible for the 9/11 attacks?  For the answer, you can pick from a menu of conspiracy theories, all stated with firm conviction.  Was the 2012 Sandy Hook school massacre in Connecticut a performance by actors and staged by gun opponents, leaving nobody really dead?  No facts, no evidence.

Did Russia try to influence the 2016 presidential election in favor of Trump, even if his campaign did nothing more than accept the help?  Conspiracy claim or fact?

A conspiracy balloon should be popped by solid facts reported by the independent media relying on evidence.  A lot of that is happening, but faces two problems.

First, newspapers and cable channels have lined up editorially for or against Trump and it may seem their news coverage is biased.  That's all the more true when opinion is offered as if it were a news report.

The other reason the media may be mistrusted is that readers and viewers bring their prejudices with them.  If you readily believe in conspiracies, then you may look behind a straight news report to find a hidden meaning.  A wide sense of cynicism exists, making suspect any objective journalism.

That's why Pelosi may be right about what her party needs.  Its candidate would not only win, but must win massively.  Only then could conspiracy be forced to the fringes.

Voters can't be passive, but must make the effort to separate fact from opinion, rejecting unfounded conspiracies.  Even if free speech allows anything to be said, facts matter.

Voters need to know secrets in Trump's tax returns

Gordon L. Weil

When he ran for president, Donald Trump refused to make his tax returns public, saying they were under IRS audit.  His message was that he would make them public as soon as they were final.

A taxpayer can make his returns public even when under audit.  One reason for temporary secrecy may be that the IRS could require that they be amended and the candidate wants to present only the corrected documents.  But President Trump's permanent refusal departs from decades of practice by presidents and candidates. 

It seems obvious that Trump has no intention of ever making his returns public or turning confidential copies over to Congress.  Equally obvious is that his refusal is not based on a rule or concern about accuracy, but rather because he has something to hide.

Trump is an unusual president.  Though his sons manage his company day-to-day, he has remained in business while serving as president.  There is no law against that.  But, until now, all presidents have worked at the job full-time with no other active business.

Because of his continued company involvement, Trump receives an income from it in addition to his presidential pay.  Again, that's not illegal, but it is unprecedented.

Previous presidents have placed their financial interests in a blind trust.  An independent manager controlled their assets and had the right to buy or sell investments without the knowledge of the president.  In that way, the president could avoid any conflict of interest in taking official action for personal benefit.

It is likely that Trump's interests are not sufficiently diversified that they could readily become part of a different investment portfolio.  That leaves only two solutions if he wanted to assure voters that he has no conflict of interest.

He could simply have sold his company upon taking office and transferred the proceeds to a blind trust.  He would no longer be in the real estate business.  Or he could publish his tax returns and related financial information so that the public, courts and Congress could judge if he had any conflicts between his public office and his business.

Because Trump won't disclose his returns, there's much speculation about his reasons.  Of greatest concern would be a financial relationship with others who are subject to federal government regulation or with foreign countries trying to influence his foreign policy.

Of course, if he engaged in a business relationship with a known or accused lawbreaker, that, too, would be a problem.

Another kind of speculation, fueled by Michael Cohen, formerly his personal attorney and now a federal convict, would be the risk of embarrassment.  Perhaps he is not as fabulously wealthy as he would like the public to believe.  

Even worse, perhaps he misrepresented his wealth to obtain bank loans for his investments.

This week, the New York Times, having seen some of his tax information, said he had lost over $1 billion in ten years when he claimed to be gaining wealth.

There's also the emoluments clause of the Constitution.  It says no federal official can, without congressional approval, "accept of any present, Emolument, Office or Title, of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince or foreign state." 

By accepting money "of any kind whatever" from a foreign government, a person might be fined or even subject to removal from office.  Trump is now challenged in federal court on that matter.  If the person lied about such a payment on his tax returns, he could be charged with income tax evasion.

The House of Representatives has requested Trump's tax returns as allowed by law for its use in lawmaking and oversight activities relative to any conflict of interest. 

But Trump believes that the sole purpose of the request is to seek information that could embarrass him politically in next year's presidential election.  No tax information previously revealed to the public has changed a presidential election result.

Out of loyalty to the president, the Secretary of the Treasury, home of the IRS, has refused the congressional request.  He claims the House's request is not lawful, because it is intended to serve political purposes, not for oversight or lawmaking.

The matter will surely go the court.  Congress can make a good case that another branch of government cannot determine whether its request is relevant to its functions under the Constitution. 

But Trump may drag the case out until after the next elections, when he hopes the Republicans will regain control of Congress and he will be reelected.

Meanwhile, voters are denied their right and need to know.