Trump's the issue, but congressional math matters – especially Maine

Gordon L. Weil

Last week, President Trump travelled to Europe, jumped into British politics, patronized the Irish Prime Minister and attacked House Speaker Pelosi while he sat in front of American war graves at Normandy.

It's no surprise that Democrats and "Never Trumpers" want to see him defeated next year.  But Trump won't be the sole focus of the 2020 campaign.  Most Democratic presidential hopefuls are trying to keep voters' attention on issues.  And much will depend on congressional races.

In fact, Republicans may focus more on Trump than will the Democrats.  Because he has broad backing within his party, they strongly support his reelection with its possible coattail effect for their congressional candidates.  If the party controls the presidency and the House or Senate, it rules.

For the Democrats, there's a dilemma.  Should they try to unify around a progressive platform or seek to draw moderate voters away from Trump Republicans?  It's less about Trump than a focus on the political math.  In that calculation, Maine matters.

Looking at the House of Representatives, in 2018 the Democrats picked up a surprising number of seats in formerly GOP districts.  Not only was the vote about Trump, but it reflected reduced ability of Republican state legislatures to gerrymander, resulting in more fairly designed districts.   

The GOP will target first-term Democrats like Maine's Second District Representative Jared Golden.  He has remained independent of his party's liberal wing in hopes of boosting his narrow margin in last year's election. 

Even state legislative races will matter to congressional math.  The new legislatures will draw House district lines for the next 10 years.  Republicans have benefitted in recent decades, but their gains could be reduced or erased by Democratic legislatures or neutral redistricting commissions.

Politically influenced district lines exist all over the country.  Even with just two districts in Maine, redrawing the line could improve Democratic chances of holding both House seats.  Moving some of the party's voters into the Second District could also reduce the chances of the GOP picking up one of the state's electoral votes.

As for the U.S. Senate, Democrats held 25 of the 35 contested seats in the 2018 elections.  They surprised the pundits, losing only a net two seats.  The GOP gained only a 53-47 majority.

Next year, the situation flips with 22 GOP seats up for grabs out of 34 to be contested.  The Democrats may find that picking up the four seats needed for a safe majority will be difficult. Much depends on the mood of the voters, incumbents' records and turnout, especially among African Americans, women and the young.

Sen. Susan Collins is considered vulnerable because of her vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh and the plentiful Democratic money that could match her large war chest.  She remains popular, so much depends upon whether the Democrats can field a strong candidate.

Collins's election could prove to be a key factor in the battle for the Senate control.  If the Democrats fail to win a majority, Mitch McConnell would remain in charge, assuming he holds onto his own seat in Kentucky.  He needs Collins' support.

This congressional math suggests that there will be more to the elections next year than an up-or-down vote on Trump.  But the media will keep him the focus.

The Democrats seek to win by attacking his trade tactics that cost jobs and raised prices and the GOP tax cuts favoring the wealthy.  They believe his backing can be stripped away by showing his supporters that they have been hurt by his policies.

That means Democrats may avoid making their main focus his lack of truthfulness or treatment of women, because such arguments will not necessarily move his backers.

The Republican Party is now almost totally Trump's and he enjoys overwhelming popularity within his party.  His political challenge is how far beyond the party, whose supporters number less than either Democrats or independents, his appeal extends.  He cannot win without votes from more than Republicans.

Trump relishes the challenge and stays on message.  While he must avoid alienating his congressional allies, he pushes the limits of traditional constraints on presidential action. 

His brash style seems to remain popular with many voters.  Still, Trump's 2016 victory may owe more to a Democratic candidate who failed to inspire her party's faithful in key states like Pennsylvania and Michigan than to his appeal.  

In 2020, while the Democrats' policies emphasize women, the young, consumers and the environment, he believes he could benefit from the extended economic recovery, immigration fears and nostalgia for the America of yesteryear.

Impeach Trump? Good case on either side

Gordon L. Weil

Independence Day comes in less than a month.  Many remember it as marking end of British rule over the American colonies.  But, as the Declaration of Independence itself stated, the purpose was to end "all allegiance to the British crown."

The Declaration is not a collection of grievances about Britain.  It is a list of complaints about King George III.  For example, it charges: "He has obstructed the administration of justice...."

Because of their experience under the British king, the Founders worried about a strong executive.  For its first 13 years, U.S. lacked the office of president.  Congress had the lead role.

Congress has since given the president great powers.  Some occupants of the Oval Office claim the office is "unitary," giving the president supreme power in the government.  Forget checks and balances.  The president may exercise even greater powers than those given by the Constitution.

The drafters of the Constitution worried about such a theory.  One protective measure they included was impeachment and removal from office.  They said that federal officials who engaged in "high crimes and misdemeanors" in their conduct while in office or to gain election could be removed by Congress.

Impeachment talk grows.  More Democrats, resentful of President Trump's breach of constitutional and government traditions, now favor it.  Opponents are wary, but still complain that calls for impeachment are purely political.

The Constitution's drafters understood impeachment was a political act by elected politicians.  Otherwise, they might have turned it over to the Supreme Court, supposedly politically independent.  The Founders required a two-thirds Senate majority for removal from office, reducing the chances of purely partisan action.

The current discussion is based mainly on Special Counsel Robert Mueller's conclusion that Trump may have tried to obstruct justice, but that he cannot be prosecuted while in office.  Mueller made it obvious that the only way to decide the question now was up to Congress.

Why impeach?

It is the right thing to do.  Mueller has provided evidence of possible obstruction of justice.  Impeachment could focus on alleged obstruction and not the host of Democratic complaints.

Evidence that Trump tried to block the Mueller investigation merits hearings to yield a conclusion.  President Trump and Attorney-General Barr should not be allowed to whitewash the findings. 

Impeachment by the Democratic House is almost certain to result from an investigation.  It should not matter that the Republican Senate would not remove him.

Former Maine GOP House and Senate member Bill Cohen advocates a House investigation.  He believes that, as the facts are brought out, sentiment for further steps against Trump would grow.

That was Cohen's experience on the House committee that voted the impeachment of President Nixon in 1974.  Public opinion initially opposed ousting Nixon, but, by the time he resigned, he was sure to be removed by the Senate.

Another view is that an impeachment investigation will benefit Democrats politically by undermining Trump's support.  Some Republicans could no longer stick with their president, improving the chances for Democratic candidates in next year's elections.

Why avoid impeachment?

It won't work.  While a Democratic House might impeach Trump, a Republican Senate would not remove him.  Only if House and, possibly, Senate Republicans begin talking about impeachment would it be worth considering.

Short of impeaching the president, Congress could limit the powers it has generously given the White House.  That would take a veto-proof majority, but would Republicans split with Trump, even to help Congress restore its constitutional role? 

Impeachment might seem excessively partisan.  Just as the misguided GOP House impeachment of President Bill Clinton hurt the Republicans in the following elections, the same might be true for the Democrats in 2020.  The process could be divisive, exactly what many Americans say they don't want.

Politically, it might even help Trump.  He could point to the Democrats as being so unhappy about the results of the 2016 elections that they prevented the Wall and other useful legislation and even tried to reverse the result.  He could cast himself as the victim of the opposition.

Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi opposes impeachment, because she fears it would jeopardize chances of gaining moderate GOP support and would draw attention away from key issues.  Many of the party's presidential candidates favor impeachment, seeing it as a way to rally primary voters.

The impeachment process would get in the way of doing almost any other government business.  The U.S. would be buried in tweets and counter-tweets.

Take your pick.  Congress faces a tough decision with no easy answer.

Election clash over government's role – Europe last week, U.S. next year

Gordon L. Weil

In European restaurants, dishes on the menu have footnotes, numbers that are a key to the food allergies of each item.

The European Union has issued a rule requiring this information.  To some, this rule might seem like overkill.  Maybe customers should take of themselves.

That sort of EU power represented the main issue in last week's elections for the European Parliament.  Parties in control of several countries lean to the far right and want to weaken the EU.  Others argue that a more unified Europe produces benefits that individual countries can't.

These European elections, for a population far greater than the US, might be a preview of next year's presidential and congressional elections.  On both sides of the Atlantic, right-wing parties want to reduce the power of the central government.

The forecasts were for a low turnout and major gains for the far-right, led by the Brexit Party, which wants to get the U.K. out of the EU.  By the same token, if the American turnout is low next years, pundits might reasonably expect Trump Republicans to strengthen their hold on government.

I was in Europe during the voting and found the results surprising.  Turnout was greater than it has been in 25 years and increased for the first time in 40 years.  Although the hard-right parties gained, the left Greens and Liberal Democrats did even better.

The governing parties of the center lost seats, but more went to the left than to the right.  Overall, that left the European Parliament still under the solid control of pro-Europeans.

In Britain, the parties on either side of the Brexit battle each received the same amount of support.  The traditional Conservative and Labour Parties that have waffled on the issue were blasted in the elections.  The result could be anything from an early exit to a new UK referendum.

While the results seem to mean greater American-style polarization, it more importantly shows the growing strength of the political left.  The increased turnout seems to have been driven, at least in some countries, by young voters sending the message they like Europe, even with its rules.

To take just one practical example, the EU outlawed roaming charges on cell phones on Europe, overriding national borders.  Young people like to be able to call from Estonia to Portugal without such charges.

What might the European elections forecast for the 2020 elections in the U.S.?

The left is a strong and growing political force.  It is obviously gaining support in reaction to right-wing moves in national parliaments.  As Brexit turns the U.K. to the right, the Greens rise.  The British Liberal Democrats, once thought to be almost dead, has surged past the traditional parties.

That could mean that left-wing Democrats in the U.S. would not settle for middle-of-the-road leadership.  The rise of the left might not work as well as in Europe, because of the two party American system.

In fact, another message from Europe is that the right unifies more easily than the left.  If the Democrats splinter, that could allow for continued minority control by the Trump GOP.

Also, turnout seems to work as expected.  While small voter participation helps Republicans and the far-right, big numbers help Democrats.  That explains why the GOP seeks to suppress Democrats' voting.  But young voters, especially those voting for the first time, can change the turnout considerably.

Political parties come and they may also go, if they really miss the mood of the electorate.  British Prime Minister Theresa May resigned, because she has failed to find a Brexit solution.  Her party almost disappeared in last week's elections.  Traditional conservative parties elsewhere are also seriously challenged.

In the US, where Trump has captured the Republican Party, what would happen if there were a major Democratic victory in 2020?  Would more moderate Republicans take control, justifying Susan Collins' party loyalty during the Trump presidency, or would the party be pushed aside by a new business-oriented party.

Trump will stress his friendship for the far-right leaders in Europe as a way of showing he is in the mainstream of a new brand of politics.  But the European result suggests that this new, nationalistic movement may have peaked.  Given a chance, it did not prevail.

Just as in Europe, the U.S. now faces an election that may be an historic turning point.  The 2020 election would either add momentum to Trump's dismantling of the traditional federal government or it may be a complete rejection of attacks on government and renewed support for its role.