Census: Its links to Covid-19, seats in Congress, Maine statehood

Gordon L. Weil

Next week, we may find one small benefit in Covid-19.

On April 1, the nation's census is to be taken, and more people are likely to be staying home than would be normal. Because people are supposed to be counted by where they live, that could make the census more accurate.

The number people in the country are counted, as required by the Constitution, so that seats in the House of Representatives can be distributed fairly among the states. As the population shifts, states may gain or lose seats, though no state may have less than one.

The constitutional rule is that the census counts all the people, not only citizens or voters. The most obvious reason for this rule is that government affects everybody, whether or not they can vote for members of the House.

At the time the Constitution was drafted, women, children, and almost all people of African descent did not have the right to vote. But they were counted, though a slave counted then as only a fraction of a free person. Indians on reservations were not counted.

Today's census counts everybody, including foreigners, legal or otherwise, unless they are diplomats. The Constitution covers the rights of people, not citizens, so laws apply to everybody. Beyond that, the census influences federal government financial aid to states based on the number of inhabitants.

Every state wants as much influence as it can gain in the federal government, so the census, taken every ten years, is critically important. The House members elected in 2022 will be allocated according to the population counted next Wednesday. That allocation will last until 2032. Maine wants you to be counted.

How big is the congressional pie that will be divided? When the Constitution was drafted, George Washington insisted that districts should be as small as possible. He wanted to keep government close to the people.

There are now 435 seats in the House, a number that has not changed in a century. Meanwhile the population of the country has almost tripled according to the 2010 census.

Congress can change the number of House members, but it has refused to act. Some small states would lose influence in an enlarged House, so they resist change. Some worry that, if the House grew larger, it would be unmanageable. Added cost is a relatively small worry, because the cost of Congress is a microscopic part of the federal budget.

Each of the smallest states gets a guaranteed House seat. Because districts do not cross state lines, the allocation of seats among states must be rounded off. The result of both these factors is that some districts are far more populous than others. Right now, the Montana, with a single district, has close to twice as many people as one of the Rhode Island districts.

The problem could be greatly reduced, though not completely resolved, by a simple act of Congress. Each district could be made to have the same population as the population of the single-district state with the smallest population. In effect, that would eliminate the special weight given to the smallest states. The equal representation of states in the Senate would remain.

In that case, the House would increase in size by only about 110 members. Rounding would remain, but its impact would be reduced. A voter in Montana would count more nearly as much as a voter in Rhode Island.

State districts must meet the requirement of “one person, one vote.” Each state district has the same population. Enlarging the size of the House would ensure that rule was also applied to the country as a whole to the fullest extent possible.

The two most obvious results would be greater fairness and a lot of new faces in Congress. And enlarging the House would be a useful step in keeping Congress closer to the people.

The first census was directly relevant to Maine statehood, now celebrating its 200^th anniversary.

At the 1788 Massachusetts convention to ratify the Constitution, leaders worried that Maine delegates would reject the draft because it required a state's consent to the loss of any of its territory to create a new state. If Mainers opposed the Constitution on this point, Massachusetts might not have had enough votes for ratification. A majority of Maine delegates voted in favor.

That concern was a strong indication that all knew that Maine was on track to become an independent state.

Just two years later, in the 1790 census, Maine was counted separately from the rest of Massachusetts. Vermont and Kentucky, also census districts but not states, were similarly counted separately. All three became states.

It was up to Maine and Massachusetts to make the split. Maine decided to leave the Bay State after Massachusetts failed to help against the British invasion in the War of 1812. Massachusetts was willing to see Democratic Maine depart, reducing the threat to Federalist Party rule in the Commonwealth. In 1820, Congress used Maine, a free state, to balance Missouri, a slave state, in enlarging the Union.

The census plays a central role in America's history and government. It's important for you to be counted so you will count in that history.

Fixing coronavirus impact requires major government action

Gordon L. Weil

The coronavirus pandemic is illustrating a basic truth about the U.S.

We are poor at long-term preparing and better at short-term reacting.

The country was unprepared for dealing with a worldwide public health crisis. Even if other countries were similarly unready, that's no excuse for a country that considers itself and is widely considered by others to be the world leader.

The principal reason for lack of preparedness was the popular belief that the federal government is too big and people ought to be able to keep their own money rather than turning it over to a faceless government that independently follows it own agenda.

When the U.S. House of Representatives voted 363-40 for an economic stimulus package to deal with the virus' effect, one member opposed it because it would "expand government massively." In fact, it increases the size of government little, but it would be a major increase in government spending.

The basic function of any government is to protect public health and safety. But that takes money. Even worse, from the viewpoint of opponents, it needs funding before there is even a problem, when people would rather keep the money in their own hands. Why spend money on a police force, when there's no crime?

A variation on this theme was President Trump's initial focus on the stock market and, indirectly, on the economy. He favored leaving potentially ill people stranded on a cruise ship rather than bringing them ashore for testing and treatment. At home, they would run up the count of those affected, potentially harming the stock market.

Then, the president complained about the inadequacy of federal procedures to deal with the new virus, implying it was the fault of his predecessors. By now, he had been president more than three years, so if there were a preparedness problem, it could have been fixed on his watch. Instead, he proposed spending cuts.

Meanwhile, much of the rest of the world faces similar problems. For a century, the world has looked to the U.S. for leadership in a global crisis. This one gives the U.S. an opportunity to recover that role, work with Europe and demonstrate its superiority to the Chinese regime.

If any proof were needed of a panic, people had to look no further than the stock market. Share prices are supposed to be forecasters of the future economy. If they are to be believed, a recession seems inevitable.

How can government leaders prevent panic? Merely counting gross numbers of tests and respirators is not the path to panic's end. They need to informed, honest and complete in their explanations. That creates a sense of confidence and reduces harmful rumors.

Having taken credit for the run-up in stock prices, he worried that his political fate could be undermined by their collapse. In minimizing the crisis, he failed to understand that he would not be held responsible for developments that nobody could control. He pushed for lower interest rates and easy money, and the Federal Reserve obliged him.

Then, Trump made a major course correction. He began talking about the market being secondary to controlling the spread of the virus. He talked with the nation's governors. He stopped blaming his predecessors.

He even praised the media. In fairness to him, some of them seemed intent on tripping him up. In fairness to them, they did not report fake news.

Above all, he has backed a huge economic stimulus, contrary to the usual GOP position and closer to the Democrats. But massive new spending and creating more money will add to an already large national debt and fuel inflation. Eventually, there must be a tax increase, but the bill will be paid long after the presidential election.

The stimulus should be targeted at relieving economic pain and preserving key industries when their revenues fall to the point they cannot pay workers. Many of the opponents of "big government" now recognize that only the government has the economic power to help.

The crisis will have an impact on the presidential election. The question will be whether it has educated people that they are, in fact, choosing how to spend their own money when they elect leaders to use tax revenues in preparing to meet possible future needs and crises.

The Democratic proponents of increased government action for dealing with the long-term effects of this and other problems are not "socialists." In fact, much work can be carried out by the private sector, as in the current development of a coronavirus vaccine.

Without understanding that we must devote more resources to being better prepared, the coronavirus crisis would serve mainly as a sign of worse things to come.

States play major role in coronavirus crisis; emergency responsibilities could grow

Gordon L. Weil

In February, President Trump met with the National Governors Association. During a long and rambling session, including much praise for his policies, the president spent less than 20 seconds talking about the coronavirus. He found no need for any state action.

His full remarks: "Now, the virus that we're having to do – you know, a lot of people think that it goes away in April with the heat – as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We're in great shape though. We have 12 cases – 11 cases and many of them are in good shape now."

A month earlier, clear warnings had been issued by qualified scientists and in the media about the outbreak in Wuhan, China, of a new viral illness. The world was familiar with earlier virus outbreaks that had been taken seriously.

The World Health Organization had announced that the coronavirus was a “public-health emergency of international concern.” Trump had already shut down entry for people from China, though American citizens were admitted.

As part of a clear change in his approach to the crisis, on Monday Trump had a conference call with the governors. He was nonpartisan in tone and recognized they would need to take strong action of their own,

While it was not pleasant to dwell on the possible effect of a new viral strain, Trump had missed an unusual opportunity to mobilize national action. In a country as vast as the U.S. and with a communicable virus, getting the states involved in reacting along with the federal government would have made sense.

It still does. On Monday, Trump had a conference call with the governors. It was non-partisan in tone. Some governors were reportedly surprised that they were expected to act rather than waiting for the federal government to direct and support them.

The NGA had failed to use the opportunity to consider the threat from the virus and even to organize a regular interstate contact network. The states are frequently pushed out of the picture by the federal government, but this time was different. States may have grown accustomed to a subordinate role.

To contradict the president's original, optimistic report would have risked making the issue a part of the political campaign. The NGA tries to remain as non-partisan as possible. Still, the organization might have provided governors a briefing by a scientist.

At least, then, states might have reacted earlier. Upon returning home, governors could have checked on state preparedness for a virus and if there was anything else they should be doing. Instead, many accepted the president's reassurance that the virus was no big deal.

Did local journalists question state government officials about planning for the virus? They, too, needed to get more actively involved. Regular, complete and accurate reporting on a spreading virus is essential. Local news could focus best on matters close to affected people.

Governors are close to the concerns of people in their states. They can choose on their own to cooperate across state lines. State powers to deal with threats to public health and safety are legally greater than the powers of the federal government.

Gov. Mills declared a state of emergency, giving her almost dictatorial powers. Her major announcement received routine news coverage on local stations. Interrupting regular broadcasts for her full statement would have been justified.

The priorities of the federal government may differ from various state interests. Governors need to act to meet their own needs and not lean too much on the federal government. Trump now says they may be better at purchasing supplies than the federal government. They may be able to cooperate with one another, reducing costs and sharing experiences.

The Maine statute covering a declaration of emergency contains a major section on energy emergencies. The original version of that section was swiftly adopted by the Legislature when President Reagan abruptly ended almost the entire federal role.

The law grew out of actions previously considered by the NGA. At the time, Maine chaired the NGA energy committee (disclosure: I represented the State.) and focused its attention on energy emergency planning. The NGA could learn from that experience to promote state health emergency planning.

The American political system is deeply divided. No matter what happens in November, bitter conflict is likely to survive, undercutting federal action. Most people recognize that the post-coronavirus world will be different. Part of the change may be an increased state role.

The coronavirus reaction, with a large part of the responsibility finally coming back to the states, is a message that individual states, with the NGA as their forum, need to adjust. They should expect to meet public needs and priorities increasingly on their own.