Biden, Mills want to hold political center without losing progressives; face tough 2022 elctions

Gordon L. Weil

It may not be obvious to most voters, but we are in the midst of the 2022 political campaign.

We are learning about the politicians’ view of the voters and probably also the voters’ view of themselves.  We may be more conservative than having a Democratic president and governor might imply.

Of course, elections have consequences.  President Joe Biden gets to pick his own federal judges and to reverse by the stroke of a pen some of his predecessor’s orders.  Governor Janet Mills gets solo power to set the terms of Maine’s Covid-19 emergency thanks to Democratic control of the Legislature.

But the election was not a blank check for either of them.  Both have kept an eye on next year’s voting, when Biden would like to score almost unprecedented Democratic congressional mid-term gains and Mills would like to be reelected.

Both face a divided electorate with about half of the voters wary of government and taxes, including many who are right wing on social issues.  Both have to find ways to produce results that can satisfy some center-right voters next year without alienating the growing progressive wing of their party.

Biden knows that Congress could be taken over by the GOP next year.  So he wants key elements of his program passed this year.  While he might be able to ram some of it through Congress with only Democratic votes, that could cost him next year.

That’s why he touts compromise and has been willing to see his infrastructure bill pared down by a bipartisan congressional group.  Even with the deal, he might get a bigger result than Donald Trump had unsuccessfully proposed and it would be all federally financed.

The Republicans’ problem may be Biden’s willingness to compromise and cut deals with conservatives.  GOP Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s sole focus seems to be defeating Democrats and retaking control.  Compromise is not a tasty dish for him.

The proposed infrastructure deal reveals the rift among Republicans.  A few are willing to work on compromises with Biden.  They are similar to traditional Republicans, sometimes more practical than ideological. 

If the GOP deal makers, including Sen. Susan Collins, can find 10 GOP senators to support the compromise and prevent a filibuster, the Republicans launch the start of an open struggle to see if the party can free itself from Trumpism.  That means there’s a lot more at stake in the infrastructure bill than roads and bridges.

On his side, Biden’s compromises run little risk of creating a Democratic split. The progressives won’t like some of his moves, but they surely do not want to see Congress slip back under Republican control.  If that happened next year, they would lose any possible influence on legislation.

Biden is probably counting on their willingness to go along with him in the hope Democrats will pick up congressional seats rather than losing them as would be normal in a mid-term election.  The progressives would then stand a chance of gaining greater influence in the second two years of his term.

The big difference between Biden’s situation and Mills’ is that he is not on the ballot next year and she is.

Mills is undoubtedly more conservative than some legislative Democrats.  In what the Bangor Daily News called her “veto spree,” it reported: "The governor has vetoed seven bills from this legislative session, including several that were priorities for progressive Democrats in the Legislature."

Unlike Biden, the governor does not have the benefit of leaving the progressives nowhere else to go.  She is denied the benefit of ranked choice voting, which could have helped her next year.

RCV came about in Maine after Republican Paul LePage won thanks to a split vote between two Democrats, when one ran as an independent.  But the Maine Constitution prevents RCV, available now in federal elections and party primaries, from being used in a general election for governor.

At a time when Democrats support a referendum on replacing CMP with a consumer-owned utility, Mills is opposed, so she won’t rally full Democratic support.  The fallback would be a petition-driven referendum on the ballot at the same time as her reelection.  The pro-referendum organization already exists.

She faces defections by Democrats or, even worse for her, a Democrat-turned-independent who favors the CMP takeover and splits her vote.  LePage could be the GOP candidate who runs to again take advantage of a Democratic divide.

Both Biden and Mills show the risks faced by Democrats pushed by progressives but facing a significant conservative element in the electorate.  They are now engaged in trying to find their way.

What they do in the next few days and weeks may determine what happens in November 2022.

 

Biden vs. Trump in the Age of Resentment; trying to overcome MAGA with “Build Back Better”

 

Gordon L. Weil

It’s not about Trump.

Joe Biden knows that. So do Joe Manchin and Josh Hawley. 

It’s about people. Donald Trump exploited the discontentment of many Americans for his own political gain.  Even as he fades, the president and the two senators understand those Americans remain the critical center of national politics.

In an essay “The Bitter Heartland,” William Galston wrote about the resentment of people who believe they were gradually ignored by the Democratic Party, which had taken their support for granted. 

They saw the Democratic Party as turning from them and their bread-and-butter issues to focus on other groups who demanded the same rights and social treatment as they had enjoyed.  At first, they became Reagan Democrats, and they would later be Trump’s loyal supporters.

Galston explored the reasons for their resentment. Socially conservative and often religious, they saw the growth of progressive liberalism that could upset the traditional role of the group that had historically dominated – White men.

“Immigrants, minorities, non-Christians, even atheists have taken center stage, forcing them to the margins of American life,” he wrote. They believe liberals want to dictate how they should behave and “hold them in contempt” for their traditions.  They see Democratic liberals upholding a double standard, by only selectively supporting free speech and opposing violence.

Beyond the traditional American way of life being ignored and challenged, they were losing ground in the economy.  The need for labor from assembly line manufacturing to coal mining decreased.  College-educated technocrats deployed automation and artificial intelligence.  New forms of investment created a new wealthy class.

The traditional core voters of the Democratic Party saw their values ignored and the income gap grow between them and those who came to dominate the country, Galston wrote.

Trump sensed the opportunity to take advantage of what might be called “the age of resentment.”  He promised to halt or reverse the trends of recent decades by reviving manufacturing, reducing environmental protection and increasing trade protection.

On the social and legal level, he would stem the movements for greater equality for African-Americans, women, and those seeking sexual freedom.

Even without fully understanding the implications of his promises and actions, those resenting their lost status understood the message. “Make America Great Again” meant a return to the kind of country they had known in the decades before Barack Obama’s presidency.

The 2020 election was a defeat for Donald Trump, but not for the concerns of this core group.  Yet he had become so integral to their resentment, they had difficultly separating the two, even though Republican congressional candidates had run well, despite his loss. 

There have been three reactions to the resulting situation.  The first is the drive to re-install Trump in the White House either by forcefully reversing the election outcome or by the 2024 election.  The election deniers cannot separate their hopes for MAGA from the flawed man who had led their cause.

The second is Trumpism without Trump, perhaps best embodied by Sen. Hawley (R-MO).  Drop Trump and his personal defects but exploit his appeal. At first, that means aligning with the former president and his false election claims.  Then, if he continues to fade, loyalist Hawley or another Republican can pick up the MAGA banner.

President Biden actively pursues the third approach.  He believes the resentful core must be given the skills and opportunity to catch up with change instead of hopelessly resisting it. At the same time, he acts to protect the environment and enhance the rights of those who have been denied.

MAGA means a return to the past.  Biden’s “Build Back Better” means keeping what’s good from the past and improving it.  These are both ways to appeal to those resentful of change.

Biden’s policies require more government action.  It must improve incomes almost immediately, expand education and protect civil and social rights.  At a time when people have been schooled that taxes are bad and government is too big, he must tax more and grow government’s role.

He faces Republicans who have pledged to block him. Some swing Democrats, like Sen. Manchin (D-WV), worry more about MAGA voters than the need for social and economic changes that could parallel those of the New Deal of the 1930s.

Biden seeks results fast.  The key election ahead is not the 2024 presidential contest but next year’s congressional races.  If the Democrats lose their slim majority in Congress, he loses almost any hope for his policies.

To succeed, the Democrats must make gains now among their historic working-class voters while maintaining the momentum of equal rights.  Or, if blocked this year, Biden needs voters next year to reward him for his efforts by giving him a stronger majority.

An historic struggle – between MAGA and Biden’s BBB – is happening now.

 

Race theory, religious school funding now major education battlegrounds

 

Gordon L. Weil

A man tries to wash his hands using an automatic soap dispenser in a public restroom. No soap.

His friend has no trouble getting soap to flow from the same dispenser. It works fine.

What’s going on here?  The first man is Black and the second is White.  The sensor activates the flow of soap by bouncing light off a user’s hands. The Black man’s hands absorb too much light to reflect it back.

Nobody in this story is a racist, yet the Black has a sense of second-rate treatment.  When the faucet was designed and tested, the problem of skin color was overlooked.  Though nobody knows, the designer may have been White.

This story may illustrate the mildest possible expression of critical race theory, which is stirring controversy these days.  Its worst expression may be the George Floyd case, the public murder of a Black man by a White police officer.

Critical race theory has been described as arguing that “racism is rooted in the nation’s founding and that systemic racism continues to affect the way people of color are treated at all levels in society.”

The U.S. Department of Education under the Biden Administration has proposed that some federal aid to education require instruction favorable to this theory.  The proposal has met with strong opposition from some states.

The attorneys general of 20 states have asked the federal government to back off this plan. They claim that the theory “props up an idea based not in fact, but on the idea that the United States is a nation founded on white supremacy, patriarchy, and oppression and that these forces are still at the root of our society.”

Some people, mainly Blacks, feel the harm and danger of racism daily and believe others need a better understanding of their lives.  Other people do not consider themselves racists or implicitly to be White supremacists. Those conflicting sentiments set up the issue.

Legislatures in some of the objecting states have moved to block the teaching of this theory in their schools.  The states opposing the proposed requirement are all under Republican control and the issue risks becoming partisan.

It would be difficult to find a more difficult or serious issue in American life.  The Education Department does not profess to be neutral, but would condition the flow of federal funds on the teaching of a disputed interpretation of the facts. 

That is what has made it a political issue. Republicans may see it giving them the opportunity to defend traditional American beliefs, based on a set of values that may be widely admired if not supported by history.  For example, “all men are created equal” did not even legally apply to women and Blacks until long after the Declaration of Independence.

The federal government seeks to influence classroom instruction by requiring what must be taught and some legislatures want to ban a subject from the same classroom.  Both depart from the concept that parents control their children’s educations, within the law, acting through local school boards.

That’s not the only major case of an historic, political battle over what is taught in school.  Another is about religion.

Historically, many public schools included prayer in daily activities.  Public funds for prayer or celebrating Christmas were ruled illegal, violating the ban on government endorsing religion.  Politicians charged there was a “war on Christmas.”

Schools could still teach about religion, including the religious beliefs of the nation’s founders, without teaching religion itself. The Supreme Court decided that public funds for specific purposes should go to all schools, public or religious, though not for religious instruction.

Going further, a federal appeals court last week ruled that Vermont could not deny tuition payments for students in religious schools, which may provide religious instruction.  The result could aid religious schools, allowing them to draw students away from public education.  Maine may face a similar situation.

Using public funds to favor teaching of critical race theory or to support religious instruction places government in a position of great influence over education.  The focus on race and religion may obscure the impact on education.

What’s more, education is increasingly drawn into the current partisan conflict. By seeking to influence teaching about race or religion, the parties may be as concerned about attracting voter support as the quality of education.

Students are at risk. Education is supposed to give them the tools to make their own judgments.  If public policy leads schools to guide their thinking toward conclusions on which wide differences of opinion and belief exist, they may be influenced by whoever controls the government of the day.

Education, funded by the public, should keep the school’s doors open to all ideas and theories, however disputed, without taking sides.