Anti-vaxers cause ‘collateral damage’ to vulnerable Americans

 

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Gordon L. Weil

“We took important and dangerous action, and inevitably some innocent people were affected,” the battle report says.  It expresses regrets. 

The supposedly unavoidable harm to people who were not the intended target is labeled “collateral damage.”   You’re supposed to shrug it off as an inevitable price that must be paid to accomplish an essential objective.

Covid-19 has produced the same effect, not on some distant battlefield, but across this country.  But it is other people, not the government, who take the action, and they express no regrets.

What has turned out to be overwhelmingly important to many people is not the fight against the coronavirus, but rather their resistance to that fight, even if it causes collateral damage to their fellow Americans.

People refuse to be vaccinated because of their opposition to the kind of government power that can require them to take action for their own good and the well-being of others.  They proclaim their absolute right to freedom.  It may be a case of “my rights are more important than your lives.”

Many people have been hopeful that the vaccines would allow a return to the “old normal,” allowing for travel, crowds, and restaurants.  The unexpected resurgence of the virus, thanks to the Delta variant and the unvaxed, has been difficult to accept.  With that reluctance may have come resistance to masks and shots.

“We don’t seem to care that we have these really high infection rates,” a British professor told the New York Times. “It looks like we’re just accepting it now – that this is the price of freedom.”  Living with Covid 19 may be the “new normal” for some people.

The uncertain messages about the effectiveness of anti-Covid19 measures have inevitably raised doubts.  The scientific community has tried to discover how to deal with a sudden and worldwide deadly virus using its normal methodical process.  Mandating vaccinations usually comes only after years of trial-and-error research.

The result of both the urgency of stemming the abrupt rise in the death rate and the amazing speed in coming up with vaccines may be an overly optimistic hope that Covid 19 could be wiped out quickly. That would have been unprecedented.   The public may now be forced unhappily to accept the absence of an expected miracle.

In the end, Covid 19 can be brought under control. It is possible that the new normal will involve many people continuing to wear masks, required vaccinations, more remote work and less business travel, and the continued growth of retail business conducted online. It may be possible to lead something like normal lives though with a different lifestyle.

In Maine, the state with the oldest population, and in the U.S. as a whole, with an aging population, the lifestyle change is occurring.  Older people are among the most vulnerable to Covid 19 because of reduced natural immunity. Though vaccinated, many must drastically limit their social contacts and travel.

The spread of the coronavirus deprives retirees, who must exercise special care, of the expected benefits of retirement, including family contacts.  The activities they forfeit may never again be possible as they age. 

The effect on life in the retirement years is part of the collateral damage of the failure to fight Covid 19.  Anti-vaxers rob retirees.

Of course, the problems of seniors are not as serious as the increased hospitalization and deaths caused by the community spread of the virus that could be reduced if more of the population was vaccinated and wore masks.  This is the greatest collateral damage.

The costs they impose on others are unheeded by those whose sole concern is their own opposition to wearing a mask or getting a shot. The high-flown assertion of their freedom looks remarkably like simple selfishness.

Making the harm even more dangerous is the political exploitation of the opposition to protective measures.  The governors of Texas and Florida, both rumored to plan on presidential runs, actively oppose masks and vaccinations that would reduce health risks. They appeal to anti-vaxers for their own political gain.

Some pundits and social media multiply the effect.  They exploit news of evolving research to falsely claim that vaccines, proven to work, are not effective.  They promote resistance to any government vaccine, yet come up with unproven, dangerous remedies for those who contract Covid 19.

The emphasis on personal freedom, even at the expense of others, is part of a belief that rights are absolute. While it sounds good, it can be destructive.  Protecting the rights of each person requires some mediating mechanism.  In the U.S., that’s a freely created government.

In the end, the biggest long-term danger from Covid 19 may not be its threat to public health, but the threat posed by its opportunistic opponents to the sense of community that is essential to democracy.

Impossible to win in Afghanistan: Q&A on failed nation building and Taliban

Gordon L. Weil

The Twenty-Year War is ending with the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. 

But America’s longest ever war cannot simply be understood by the evacuation from Kabul.  Here are key questions about this wasteful conflict that can help put the war in perspective.

Why did the U.S. go to war in Afghanistan?  After the 9/11 attacks in 2001, the headquarters of the terrorist group Al Qaeda was found there, sheltered by the Taliban, religious zealots who ruled most of the country. The U.S. went in to stamp out Al Qaeda, which required ending Taliban control.

Did the U.S. mission change?  President George W. Bush committed U.S. forces without defining the conditions under which they would leave. Though he had said he opposed “nation building,” that’s just what the U.S. tried to do.  Under four presidents, it failed.

Could Afghanistan be turned into “a stable and open” society?  It has never been a unified country, but had been ruled by regional warlords.  The Soviet Union had failed to govern it and withdrew.  Even legendary novelist Rudyard Kipling had revealed how ungovernable and divided it was.

Why couldn’t the U.S. defeat the Taliban?  The Talibs have had a long history in Afghanistan and knew they could wait out the Americans.  Long ago, British statesman Winston Churchill wrote about their entrenched power.  They could endlessly develop and deploy home-grown terrorism to dominate most areas of the country.

Why couldn’t the new government in Kabul take control?   It was riddled by corruption and incompetence.  While it represented an attempt to graft Western values onto local roots, it lacked broad popular support.  It was simply an overlay on historic tribal and Taliban structures.

Also, it was an economic failure. It depended on suitcases of American dollars flown in regularly.  In contrast, the Taliban economy is based on opium sales and few public services, notably schools.

Why did the U.S. and its European allies remain there?  The goal was to prevent the growth of new terrorist bases in the country.  There was progress toward that objective so long as Western troops were on the ground. But terrorism had grown up elsewhere, and it was impractical to keep troops everywhere it might occur.

What about women in Afghan society?  The Taliban suppressed virtually all women’s rights. So long as it did not control the country, those rights could develop and did.  But the society itself did not come to value those rights enough to resist the Taliban after the U.S. troops were withdrawn.

Could the U.S. have struck a deal with the Taliban?  It tried direct talks, even excluding the Kabul government it had fostered. That alone must have sent a message that only the U.S. stood between the people and the Taliban.   Knowing they could outwait the Americans, the Taliban never would make a deal.

Why did the U.S. withdraw from Afghanistan?  It cost too much.  Funds that could have gone to meet urgent domestic needs poured continuously into the country.  Even more important, it cost the lives of Americans and others without producing the desired result.

Both Donald Trump, during his presidency, and President Joe Biden read the message from the American people that Afghanistan meant little when compared with the sacrifice, and it was time to leave. Some generals seemed to have a hard time accepting the failure and favored staying.

Why is the withdrawal a chaotic crisis?  Biden thought the government would fall to the Taliban, but that it might save key cities, resulting in a settlement of sorts.  He believed a gradual withdrawal would be possible by continued government control for a limited period.  In effect, the U.S. bought its own propaganda about the Kabul government.

Biden’s policy was based on this faulty assumption, which provided an overly optimistic view of the country’s support for the government without U.S. military backing.  He failed to order a withdrawal of diplomats and other civilians in line with the troop drawdown. This was a serious and costly error.

What about Afghans who helped the U.S.?  Biden says they will be helped to leave the country. But it would be naïve to believe that all Afghans seeking U.S. help themselves helped the U.S. Some opportunistically chose a side; some simply see a way out to the West.  Those left behind will undoubtedly survive as an American political issue.

Is all lost despite the effort?  Russia and China are not likely to do better than previous outside powers in this failed country.  The U.S. has learned a lot about the country and can use air strikes to damage terrorist bases as they develop.  In the end, the U.S. dollar might have greater long-term influence on the Afghan economy than U.S. troops had on its governance.

  

Census shows demographics favor Democrats, but GOP resists change

Gordon L. Weil

America’s worst kept secret just came out.

It’s the Census, mandated by the Constitution to be conducted every ten years to set the number of members of the U.S. House of Representatives each state gets.  Its purpose is political, and the pundits are now having a fine time with it.

It’s a poorly kept secret because it has become easier to keep track of the population annually.   This time, it confirmed some of what we already knew, but provided at least three results that caught new attention.

The country had previously recognized that the non-white population is growing faster than the white population.  The clear message is that at some point in the next 20 to 30 years, the majority in the U.S. will be non-white.

The surprise this year was that, for the first time in U.S. history, there were fewer whites than at the last count, not merely a smaller percentage.  A lower birth rate, an aging population and fewer European immigrants brought the change. The non-white American majority will develop sooner than expected.

Even Maine, while remaining the whitest state, is showing signs of change as its minority population has begun growing faster.

Race designations in the Census result are the choice of each individual respondent.  A surprise this year was sharp growth among people who classified themselves as being of mixed origins. 

Intermarriage between people from different ethnic groups has become more common and more accepted.  Though they may have called themselves Black, both former President Barack Obama and Vice President Kamela Harris could have chosen the multiple race category.

The third fact revealing change is the movement of people out of rural America to metropolitan areas.  Many big cities are growing, while small towns are declining.  Cities have more diverse populations, while rural areas have been overwhelmingly white.

In Maine, without big cities, the major urban areas have gained while rural counties have either lost population or have experienced relatively small growth. 

A widely accepted article of truth is that non-whites will predominantly be Democrats, while whites, especially those in rural America, are Republicans. That belief has led to the conclusion that country will move toward the community-oriented politics of urban Democrats and away from rural GOP conservative individualists.

Whether that thesis is true remains to be seen.  As non-whites gain increased prosperity, promised by the “American dream,” the question may be whether they change their politics as they expand their pocketbooks.

So why is a shift to the Democrats assumed?  To a considerable degree, the answer may come from the Republican Party.   At the moment, it is trying to construct political obstacles to minimize the effects of the inevitable change in the ethnic make-up of the population and block Democratic control.

The GOP tool is voter suppression.  Where Republicans now control state governments, they are passing laws making election access more complicated.  They see their traditional white supporters as being more likely to show up at the polling place than are newer, minority voters. Measures to ease voting like longer voting periods or mail-in ballots are being curtailed.

In addition, the GOP uses congressional and state legislative redistricting powers to draw specially designed districts that can produce the smallest number of Democratic legislators.  Through such gerrymandering, they can prolong their control.  That allows time to adopt laws and rules that may be difficult to topple if the Democrats gain control.

In short, the Republicans are attempting to extend their reach far into the future even as power may be slipping away from them.  They seek to delay Democrats gaining political control even as the number of non-white voters increases.

Whether this policy makes sense could be questionable.  It’s possible that some non-white voters are not natural Democrats, but resent GOP efforts to minimize their influence. In effect, the Republicans are inviting them to choose the Democrats.

Too much attention can be paid to what the Census reveals. Two other key factors don’t show up in its count, and they both seem to help the Democrats.

The increased participation of African-Americans in the electoral process shows the Obama elections were not passing events.  Two Georgia Senate races this year elected Democrats in what was a solidly GOP state, thanks to efforts to increase Black voting.  In the face of voter later suppression efforts there, the Democrats have to find ways to keep that happening.

The other change is the participation of women voters.  The major news is that white women are no longer voting similarly to white men. Their participation has grown with their independence.  The GOP has apparently ignored that change.

Political change is coming. The Census and related trends reveal that it may come sooner than