“The Emperor has no clothes” – the naked truth about vaxing, voting and hacking

 

Gordon L. Weil

An old tale, written by Hans Christian Andersen, tells the story of a foolish emperor who is swindled into believing that he wears the finest garment, visible only to the wise. But he really strides naked on parade.  Nobody risks telling him they see nothing until an innocent child blurts out, “The Emperor has no clothes.”

That declaration has come to describe a clear fact that many people insistently get wrong.  It means, “What you think is obviously incorrect. Here is the naked truth.”

Here are some of today’s naked truths.

Vaccination against Covid-19 works.  Maine provides the best possible proof of that truth.

The counties with the lowest new case rates have the highest percentage of vaccinated people. Most people in counties that are now nearly the worst in the country have chosen not to get shots.  They risk their own health and may spread the virus to others.

The term “herd immunity” was meant to convey the idea that, when only a few people remain unvaxed, the virus won’t easily spread.  In the counties with high case rates, we can see the reverse – herd vulnerability.

Many possible explanations exist for abstaining including partisan politics and misinformation, intentional or not.  It may be a matter of mindset.  Maine health expert Dr. Dora Anne Mills has said, “We very strongly need people from conservative circles – religious, faith and business – to really stand up and promote vaccination.”

Here’s another truth that causes harm if ignored. Voting matters.  And serious voting matters seriously.

On this truth, Maine takes comfort because it comes close to leading the country in voter participation.  The U.S. in 2020 had a high rate of two-thirds of eligible voters; Maine had 76 percent participation.  So what’s the problem?

Nationally, one-third of eligible voters did not vote. Joe Biden received 51.3 percent of the vote. That means the president was elected by one-third of the possible number of voters.  While the high turnout may feel good, it’s important to look at those who did not vote. In effect, they “voted” for Biden by not voting for anybody else.

Voting in the 2020 elections influenced decisions on matters such as whose vote will count next time, the future Supreme Court, and Biden’s legislative program.  In Senate races, the GOP margin in North Carolina and the Democratic margin in Arizona were small. If either had flipped, you would never have heard of Sen. Joe Manchin’s swing vote power.

Casual voting on the basis of personality or a wedge issue cannot achieve the full value of each vote.  Who paid attention to the fate of the child tax credit when they voted for senator?  If you care, voting seriously takes thought.

Some politicians have become blind to the truth that “two wrongs don’t make a right.” They justify dubious actions on the grounds that their opponents did the same thing, excusing themselves even while implicitly admitting their actions were wrong. 

This refusal to recognize the truth is a major cause of the spiral to the bottom in American politics, made even worse when the supposed action by the other party is fabricated.  When Trump was impeached for pressuring the Ukraine to help his campaign, his backers excused him by claiming, without any evidence, that Obama had done the same thing.

This ploy may help explain why many eligible voters stay home.  Hearing the claim that both sides have gone wrong, they can conclude there’s no real difference between the parties.  So why bother voting?

Another obvious truth is ignored by government, business and individuals in the computer age.  There’s a widespread belief that voting and personal privacy can be made secure from hacking.  Not so.  Security is growing worse.

The “emperor’s new clothes” answer is that complete computer security is impossible.  Election systems are always in danger and our personal lives are always at risk of public exposure.  Still, computer experts keep trying to get technology to solve its own problems. In the end, though, the “cloud” is just somebody else’s hackable computer. 

The truth may be that we have to go backwards.  Back up everything with vital stuff like election ballots and electric grid operating manuals on paper.  When somebody makes us a “great offer,” it should be on paper so we can read the fine print.

To reduce electronic security issues, from government to individuals, we should apply the old ways of doing things on paper now, even if it takes some work, to prevent problems later.  Otherwise, it could be a case of “sin in haste, repent at leisure.”

Too often, we believe we can see the emperor’s new clothes, while ignoring the naked truth.  Unlike the foolish emperor, we may be harming others as much as ourselves.

Andersen’s amusing Danish kid’s story is a cautionary tale for everybody.

 

Strict Republican loyalty undermines constitutional system

Gordon L. Weil

The drafters of the Constitution in 1787 wisely authorized Congress to control space travel, social media and driverless automobiles.

Of course not. 

The 39 men who created the Constitution could not have imagined the future. While they proposed a new system of government, their invention was a political design, not a detailed operator’s manual. 

They knew they could not foresee the future.  But basic features like federalism, three branches of government, checks and balances and regular elections were essential. How they worked might change, though their evolution should always respect the common values embodied in the Constitution. 

If natural evolution, consistent with those common beliefs, did not keep up with the development of the nation, the Constitution would be formally amended.   While it has happened less often than they thought, the Constitution has been amended 27 times.

The drafters’ assumption about the survival of their common beliefs has been badly disappointed.  Political practices they had envisaged to fulfill the constitutional plan are in tatters. 

The Constitution, even with its amendments, is a short document.  This column is twice as long as the entire article on the judicial system.   The brief document left much room for maneuver to those ready to abandon the underlying beliefs that made it work as the drafters had intended.

Warnings that democracy is in danger are a signal that the common beliefs underlying the Constitution are being replaced by a new set of understandings.  The broad scope of the Constitution allows those who reject the common beliefs underlying it to replace them with a more authoritarian system with less popular control.

There were plenty of gradual changes in the underlying understanding over the years, but the sharp detour occurred after the Republicans won the 1994 congressional elections. Speaker Newt Gingrich imposed strict party discipline similar to the way foreign parliaments operate but not previously used in Congress.

Since then, the GOP has developed strong party loyalty.  A Republican member of Congress is now more likely to toe the party line than to represent their state, district or personal beliefs. Party loyalty has produced added GOP political strength.  That kind of loyalty has extended to state politics.

Voting is an example of the new ways of government.  While the drafters only planned popular control to cover elections for the House of Representatives, the Constitution has been formally amended six times to expand popular control.  However, it has become a cornerstone of GOP policy to try to limit access to voting.

Through their control of state governments, Republicans have drawn congressional districts to reduce the power of some voters, often minorities.  They are now transferring authority from neutral election administrators to partisans who can freely disallow Democratic votes.  They undermine methods, like mail ballots, that have increased voting.

Trying to reduce citizen election participation as a way of holding onto office is clearly against constitutional intent and the essence of democratic government.

Historically, Congress has accepted that elections have results and that presidents should have the right to pick their top staff and federal judges.  Now, the GOP has chosen to undermine presidential choice.  Their refusal to even consider President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee was a glaring case.

GOP Sen. Ted Cruz single-handedly blocks most of President Biden’s key appointments to the State Department.  He won’t relent, he says, until Biden changes his foreign policy in Europe.  Biden has been denied his own team for almost a year.

Cruz’s move is part of a larger trend in which Republicans in Congress seek to control foreign policy, despite the Constitution assigning that power to the president. Of course, Congress can try to cut off funding for presidential actions it opposes, but it was not supposed to micro-manage foreign policy.

On routine matters, partisan war replaces normal mutual accommodation. Democrats and Republicans have boosted the public debt and they have usually jointly agreed to raise the debt limit. This year, the Senate voted to force the Democrats alone to do it, but only 14 Republicans out of 50 would agree to even that.

Biden seeks to respond to public concern about deep political divisiveness. He may harbor an impossible hope if the GOP persists on its path to power by relentlessly blocking the Democrats. The Dems increasingly will seek to do the same.

What is the Republicans’ goal?  It seems to be about gaining power for its own sake more than enacting a specific agenda.  They steadfastly oppose all Democratic proposals, but offer few positive proposals of their own and refuse to compromise.

In writing this column, I regret seeming partisan, because I strongly believe we need a healthy party system.  What worries me is that the system created in 1787 is becoming all about partisan politics at the expense of popular government.  

Abortion case: Much more than women's rights at stake

Gordon L. Weil

Abortion has again arrived at the U.S. Supreme Court.  The issue boils down to whether the Court will abandon its Roe v. Wade ruling that abortion is a federally protected right and leave the issue to the states.

Its decision could place abortion at the center of next year’s political campaigns.

Abortion may be the single most controversial national issue, but there is much more behind the conflict than the question before the Court. Because abortion has been so heavily politicized, its decision will affect both national politics and the Court’s own standing.

The formal question is whether the Constitution protects a woman’s right to have an abortion.  Roe supporters maintain that the natural right of a person to control their own body is protected.  Opponents reject any such right, because they argue that abortion ends the rights of another person, the fetus.

When people assert conflicting rights, they turn to government to determine or reconcile them.  Congress has avoided action.  In effect, the political decision that was too hot for Congress was passed to the Supreme Court, putting it in the middle of the controversy.

In Roe and later decisions, it ruled that federal protection of the abortion right exists in the early stages of pregnancy, but not afterwards.  Abortion opponents, including some state governments, reject those decisions and seek Roe’s reversal, ending all federal protection.

Unable until now to reverse Roe, some states, like Mississippi in the current case, keep trying to narrow the effect of the Court’s rulings. 

Drawing abortion into the center of partisan politics began decades ago. In 1969, President Richard Nixon launched the idea of a “great silent majority.” Ever since, the Republican Party has worked hard to activate that majority by encouraging and exploiting divisive social issues. 

These are “wedge” issues.  The Republicans expect to be repaid for backing dedicated advocates on these issues by gaining their votes.  The single-issue support gives them a blank check for unrelated policies.  For example, if you elect the GOP because of abortion, you give it a free hand on the environment.  

After the 1973 Roe decision, opposition to abortion became a leading wedge issue for the GOP.

The Court’s choice is whether to keep Roe, even with more limits, or declare that its previous decision was a mistake.  If the Court retains Roe in any form, abortion opponents will campaign hard for candidates who will back more supportive appointments to the Court and restrictive legislation. The GOP will inevitably exploit the issue.

If the Court overturns Roe, some believe the result will be a divided country in which some states protect abortions while others outlaw it.  The GOP would relieve some pressure, and an uneasy accommodation would occur.  That’s an illusion.

Anti-abortion advocates will shift their attention to the states, mostly Democratic, which protect the right.  These states will come under heavy pressure, and the GOP could seek to increase its active support there.  In short, the conflict would continue, driven by the GOP effort to gain control of state governments.

Either way, the Supreme Court’s ivory tower image would be tarnished.  Its decision would add to its being seen more as a political agency than as a judicial body.  Under continual pressure, it has arrived at this position by its retreat from Roe.

It could retain respect if it chose to keep a modified Roe on the grounds of following binding precedent.  Sen. Susan Collins reported that Justice Kavanaugh told her that he regarded the case as “settled law,” gaining her support by implying that he would defer to it as a Court precedent. 

Yet precedents are often reversed.  Now Kavanaugh looks ready to overturn Roe.   Either he offered her a hollow assurance or she mistakenly gave “settled law” more weight than it deserved.

The Court has been intentionally loaded with GOP appointees whose coolness to Roe is obvious. Stacking the Court for partisan purposes goes back to John Adams, the second president.  His Federalist justices dominated the Court long after his party had died.

Chief Justice John Roberts is trying to reduce the political effect of a Court decision. He seems ready to shorten the protected period, but keep Roe.  The nature of a good compromise is that both sides end up equally unhappy.  This could qualify as a compromise, but not the last word.

The decision, which will come in an election year, may be an historic turning point. While the issue is abortion, the struggle for political control and respect for the Supreme Court are fundamental concerns. 

Beyond arguing the merits of the abortion case, Democrats need to highlight more aggressively the broader political strategy linked with it. Voters should better understand the full implications of what is at stake in the case.