An American In Name Only? Trump broke with ten previous presidents

Gordon L. Weil

Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election, but he reacted completely differently than the ten previous presidents who had also failed in their bids to remain in office.

Ronald Reagan, in his 1981 inauguration speech, declared, “The orderly transfer of authority ... is nothing less than a miracle.”  Jimmy Carter, the president he defeated, sat beside him.

For Trump, Reagan’s “miracle” was merely a mirage. Instead of turning the White House over to his successor and assisting in an orderly transfer as Carter had, Trump attacked the election itself.

Now, the House of Representatives is holding hearings on Trump’s efforts to keep the presidency, winding up with the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the Capitol.

The American tradition of an orderly transfer originated in 1800, after the fourth presidential election when President John Adams lost to Thomas Jefferson.  Adams became the first incumbent to be denied re-election.  Like Trump, he had been soundly defeated and strongly disliked his opponent, seeing him as a danger to the young republic.

But Adams accepted the result.  Jefferson did not destroy America, and the two rivals eventually became friends.  They died on the same day, the Fourth of July marking the fiftieth anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.

The other sitting presidents before Trump who lost were John Quincy Adams (John’s son, in 1828), Martin Van Buren (1840), Grover Cleveland (1888), Benjamin Harrison (1892), William H. Taft (1912), Herbert Hoover (1932), Gerald Ford (1976), Jimmy Carter (1980), and George H.W. Bush (1992).

In 1888, Cleveland won a popular majority but lost the electoral vote to Benjamin Harrison.  Both sides claimed there had been open vote buying.  Cleveland accepted his loss and in the next election again won the presidency.  Trump, who lost the popular vote both times he ran, now dreams of pulling off the same comeback.

Two presidential elections that raised doubts about the result involved two incumbent vice presidents: Richard Nixon in 1960 and Al Gore in 2000.

In 1960, John F. Kennedy won thanks to carrying Illinois and Texas by narrow margins.  The Republican Party claimed fraud in both states, but lacked sufficient evidence.  Nixon promptly accepted his loss. 

In 2000, the election was decided by the U.S. Supreme Court voting 5-4 to halt the contested Florida ballot count, thus handing the election to George W. Bush.  Gore, after a few legal skirmishes, graciously conceded and the country moved on. 

Both Nixon and Gore presided in Congress over the official vote counts of their own defeats.  Nixon spoke, praising the peaceful turnover.  Gore rejected a formal challenge to the Florida result.  In 2021, Vice President Mike Pence would carry out the same constitutional duty.

It seemed logical to Trump and his supporters that he had won, because he received more popular votes than anybody who had ever run for president – except for Joe Biden.  Biden must have cheated, he charged. But he could not produce any evidence, relying instead on unsupported claims and outright fantasies conjured up by some of his backers.

Trump’s campaign obtained independent vote counts that did not change the result.  It brought scores of legal challenges, but consistently lost in court.  Though his claims were completely disproved, he kept pushing them. False claims became real lies. 

Ignoring the conclusions of the Attorney-General he had appointed, he unsuccessfully pressed the Justice Department to aid his claims.  He brought continuous public pressure on Pence to violate the law and throw out election results.  

As each step failed, Trump moved closer to his final, desperate move – sending his backers to the Capitol to threaten Pence’s life and reverse his defeat by force.

Unlike any other president, Trump had used the prestige of his office to press state and federal officials to support his claims. But they refused, becoming the unlikely heroes of the House hearings.  Most are members of his party, though he often labels them RINOs – Republicans In Name Only.

Trump broke with the traditional limits on how far a presidential loser should reasonably go before accepting his defeat. Did his rejection of the American political tradition mean that Trump is an American In Name Only?

The system allowed Trump to challenge the result. That he used every lawful opportunity did not make him less American. Lacking real evidence, he exhausted all legal methods to prove his case.  But he will not concede.  Instead, he persists in misleading millions of his supporters, deepening political conflict.

Trump’s knowingly false claims of fraud and his instigation of insurrection go beyond the safeguards of the American political tradition.

Committees and courts may assign responsibility.  But “we, the people” must ultimately decide if partisan or personal victory is ever again worth a mortal threat to America’s time-tested political tradition. 

Happy Fourth. 

Conventional wisdom wrongly blames Biden for inflation

Gordon L. Weil

Here’s some “conventional wisdom.”

It goes like this. High gasoline prices are the main cause of inflation. Inflation is President Biden’s fault, making him really unpopular. So the Democrats will lose control of Congress in this year’s elections.

That thinking is more wrong than right, but it may well produce the predicted political outcome. A lot of people believe it.

Anything right about it? The price of gasoline is much higher than usual, and it has increased at dizzying speed. In a country where SUVs have displaced sedans, that can hit your wallet hard. Somebody has to be held responsible for allowing the price run-up.

Because presidents tend to take credit for the economy when times are good, it’s natural they will get the blame when good times stop rolling. That leads to a demand for new leadership, which would mean turning the control of Congress over to the Republicans.

What Biden did wrong, according to his opponents, was to promote displacing oil with green resources. The oil companies cut back on production as they saw the rise of electric cars.

The world market price increased when the Middle East tried to keep up its income as demand fell. The U.S. oil industry saw a chance to boost its profits by riding that wave rather than displacing competitors by selling more oil at a lower price. As one industry analyst put it: “Returns have taken priority over growth.”

The economy grew as Covid-19’s impact began to be controlled, requiring more fuel. But oil production lagged, yielding higher prices and oil company windfall profits.

Then came the Ukraine war and the West’s effort to punish Russia’s aggression by buying much less of its oil and gas. That drove up oil prices. Biden seemed to acknowledge the critics of his pro-renewables policy by asking the oil companies to step up production and drilling.

But he also took steps to reduce costs. He ordered oil drawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. He has now proposed that Congress should temporarily suspend the gasoline and diesel tax.

Did Biden create inflation by pushing huge federal spending and increasing the national debt?

Two-thirds of the massive Covid-19 impact and stimulus spending was adopted before he came to office and was backed by both parties. It may have been more than needed and badly controlled. It gave people more money to spend, boosting inflation and savings, and now supports increased state government outlays. Much of it remains to be spent.

As Congress and the president poured funds into the economy, the Federal Reserve seemed not to take notice. It kept interest rates at historically low levels, almost zero, instead of recognizing the economy was recovering.

Now, with inflation taking off, the Fed is raising interest rates to make purchasing more expensive. That process works, but painfully. Meanwhile the rate increases appear to push inflation before slowing it. If the Fed’s effort to catch up works too well, the economy may not only cool off but go into reverse – a recession.

Nobody likes economic uncertainty, but that’s what is happening at an extreme level. After more than two years of fighting Covid-19, the virus does not seem to be running out of variants that produce waves of cases. Activities from international trade to travel to office work are affected.

China is battling Covid-19 with measures that can shut down parts of its economy. That drives up the cost of its exports to the U.S. Supply chains have been disrupted, which also results in higher retail prices. Plus a federal law blocking imports of low-cost goods produced in China by Uyghur forced labor just went into effect.

Add to this economic turmoil the proxy war between NATO and Russia on the battlefields of Ukraine. With much at stake in the world’s balance of power, this war might continue for months or even years. Like any major war, it impacts national economies.

Covid-19 plus a tougher attitude toward China and Russia are transforming the world’s economy and having a far greater effect than short-term inflation. There’s no chance that inflation will be tamed and all will return to normal. In the U.S., pay levels and prices have changed for good.

Biden bears some responsibility, of course, and he may pay politically if the prices of gasoline, diesel and heating oil remain high. But inflation’s origins pre-date his administration and the causes are more complex than those he can influence. He is not the main force behind inflation.

Conventional wisdom suffers from such short-sighted tunnel vision. As a result, we cannot readily see the light at the end of the tunnel.

This “wisdom” may prevail when people vote, but inflation and other economic challenges cannot be brought under control simply by the outcome of the November elections.

Do we want strong leaders more than popular control?

 

Gordon L. Weil

What does a loose-lipped congressional candidate in Buffalo have in common with some witnesses in the January 6, 2021 insurrection hearings?

They believe people want to follow strong political leaders.

Carl Paladino, who is seeking the Republican nomination for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, recently said that Adolf Hitler was “the kind of leader we need today.” He continued, “We need somebody inspirational. We need somebody that is a doer.”

While Paladino did not mention just what that particular “doer” did, he liked to way the Nazi Fuhrer “aroused the crowd.” The despicable substance of his arousing speeches meant nothing compared the way he got people to follow him. (Forget the Gestapo.)

During the House January 6 hearings one participant said that he was at the Capitol because former President Trump asked him to be there. Why he would readily do Trump’s bidding?

It is easy for some in the media to assume that Trump simply brought the racists out of the closet. That may be true but it’s far from the whole answer.

Paladino implied that people respond to bold, assertive, self-confident leadership for its own sake. It may not matter where the speakers want to lead people, just that they appear to take charge. Maybe that explains why the man went to Washington to attack the Capitol.

That may also explain why President Biden has become less popular than Trump was at the same point in his presidency. Biden is affable, but not a crowd-pleasing orator who can express his policies in simple slogans.

One of the marks of leadership is the ability to directly motivate others. Leadership is a learned skill, so it’s not surprising that 12 of our 46 presidents had previously served as generals. Among the most historic were professionals like Washington, Jackson, Grant and Eisenhower. Others in lower ranks, like Truman and Kennedy, had led in combat.

The U.S. was created as a republic, a representative democracy where leadership matters rather than a direct democracy where the people rule. It’s the difference between the representative town council and the direct democratic decision making of the town meeting.

In either case, the people are the sovereign, not a monarch or a dictator. As the U.S. evolved, its original republican institutions became more democratic. That is evidenced by adopting the popular election of the Senate, referendums, people’s vetoes and recall elections.

American presidents, including those with military experience, have supported democracy, even if the system blocked some of their policies. Undoubtedly one-person government might be more efficient than the intentionally more complicated and slower moving democratic system.

Autocratic leaders often argue that the democratic system is ineffective and seek authoritarian rule. Hitler took power through a democratic vote and then promptly replaced popular control with his brutally efficient regime.

If a person values efficiency above democracy, the strong, unchecked leader is popular. That’s especially true if you agree with their policies. The risk is that they will later adopt policies you dislike and you will be helpless to oppose them. What’s tempting today may be terrifying tomorrow.

Today American politics are carried out through the Republican and Democratic Parties. Though their names might imply a difference in how the country should be governed, the two major parties have historically shared a common view of how this democratic republic would operate.

But a divide has begun to emerge between them with some Republicans believing that their party should reverse the trend toward greater democracy. Voter suppression and misusing Senate voting practices have become part of the GOP agenda.

Republicans have easily slid into calling the other party the “Democrat Party” and not by its legal name – the Democratic Party. Originally, this ploy was meant only to annoy, but increasingly it has become a slur, conveying something sinister about the party.

Republicans may imply that its competitor is no longer democratic but has fallen into the hands of its extreme left wing. The Democratic Party has traditionally had a bigger tent than the GOP and that produces enough of a variety that there’s always an office holder whose patriotism can be questioned by a Republican.

Does that kind of politics go so far as to question whether representative democracy has outlived its usefulness or proven unable to meet modern needs? Elitist republic yes, popular democracy no?

This is more than a political word game played by some in the GOP. Favoring “inspirational” leaders tends to undermine our innovative system of democratic government and pave the way to more authoritarian rule. Perhaps that’s what’s intended.

We need to understand that political division is now more than a disagreement on issues. It’s about the system itself. Paladino’s views and fostering the follow-the-leader mentality of the January 6 Capitol invaders are dangerous to the American democratic republic.