Big bucks, Russia, pundits at the ballot box

 

Gordon L. Weil

Democracy was on the ballot this year.

The issue, perhaps never before appearing in public opinion surveys, was all about opposing efforts to suppress voting and deny election results.

In recent decades, the Republicans have pursued voter suppression, trying to reduce the number of Democratic voters. Beyond that effort, even before an election, fraud claims, lacking any evidence, were ready and ballots questioned.

This political strategy has become part of partisan politics without evidence that dishonest elections are increasing. Donald Trump’s prolonged campaign against his 2020 election loss to Joe Biden set the pattern for pre-election strategy to challenge results in close contests.

Attention has been focused on the conflict on these issues, ranging from scores of court cases to the January 2021 insurrection at the Capitol. But there’s more to it than that. Forces coming from outside the district or state have also powerfully influenced the elections, including this year.

Money’s role in politics is now huge. The country has moved almost completely to accept that spending money on elections is the equivalent of speech and so cannot be limited.

Campaigns now believe that the outcome of an election can be influenced, if not determined, by how much money is spent to support candidates. This year, it has been estimated that more than $16.8 billion was spent on federal and state campaigns.

While buying a person’s votes is illegal, their choices may be “bought” by massive media, mail and canvassing efforts to reach individual voters. If you can’t get into voters’ pockets, get into their heads.

In Maine, an estimated $1 million was spent on the contest for State Senate President Troy Jackson’s seat. That’s a new record. Using the number of votes cast in the same district in 2020, that spending amounts to about $54 for each vote cast.

This spending was less concerned with a single senator than about which party controls the seat and who leads the Senate. Could the Maine Senate be bought for $18 million, the price of gaining a majority in the 35-seat body?

In today’s politics that’s pocket money. So long as campaign spending is effectively unlimited because it’s free speech, elections will be increasingly influenced by the intense campaign attacks made possible by big bucks.

Then, there are the Russians. They have resumed sending their electronic messengers to spread false information in American social media. Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, has asserted that, “we interfered, we interfere and we will interfere. Carefully, precisely, surgically and in our own way.”

They have created phony characters that spread lies to favor Republicans. The Russians believe U.S. support for Ukraine can be halted by flipping congressional control to the GOP so that no additional funds will be voted to support the opposition to their stalled invasion.

Federal agencies have done little more than warn Americans against believing posts by people whose identities cannot be verified. But the Russians have improved their targeting and benefit from the momentum of their tactics gained in past campaigns.

Another background influence has come from treating elections like sports. Relying on questionable poll results, the pundits roll out the score every day. Primaries are like playoffs. Voters are guided to the final score by the incessant reporting on who’s leading and what the big scoring maneuvers are.

Much less attention is paid to the issues and coverage of a candidate’s promises and whether they would realistically be able to keep them. Political ads focus far more on an opponent’s defects than on the candidate. When issues become complex, it’s easier to focus on politics more than on policy. And maybe more fun.

This style of campaign coverage may create its own political reality. Voters become increasingly drawn to the daily score rather than to a sustained focus on what candidates propose and their records. With campaigns as sporting events, we’ve been getting more color comment than play-by-play.

Much less significant, but largely ignored, is the unusual electoral effect of non-citizens. According to the Constitution, the census, which prescribes how House seats are distributed among states, uses the total population within a state, not only the citizens or voters. Where there are many resident aliens, legal or not, the census count may be higher.

The effect of illegal residents on the census reveals that Texas, a Red State, probably received one additional seat in the House. The state that fights undocumented immigrants may be gaining power in Congress thanks to them. That could mean that another state, say Blue State New York, has lost that seat, helping shift control of the House from the Dems to the GOP.

Money, the Russians, pundits and aliens may have influenced this year’s election outcomes more than attempts to block voters from the ballot box.

From ‘Chief Twit’ to Chief Justice, believers in intentional lies

 

Gordon L. Weil

It’s easy to believe something that’s not true. From conspiracy promoters to the highest court, people intentionally choose to do it.

Take the assault last week in San Francisco on Paul Pelosi, the husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Investigators have found he was attacked simply because he is the husband of the outspoken and controversial leader of the House Democrats.

Political differences, no matter how extreme, should not degenerate into violence. Oppose all you want, but your political views should not be reduced to a physical attack.

But the problem goes beyond that. The attack took place and it was wrong, but some try to excuse it by lying. Without any evidence, a well-known conspiracy promoter pushed the suspicion that Pelosi and his attacker knew one another and there was a fight between them. This lie could discourage GOP sympathy for Pelosi or even make it look like it was all his fault.

Relying on nothing more than this unsupported accusation by a rabid opponent of the Democrats, Elon Musk last week retweeted it to tens of thousands of people. He concluded, “there is a tiny possibility there might be more to this story than meets the eye.”

Then, Musk, the self-styled “Chief Twit” on Twitter had to give way to Musk, the new CEO of Twitter. After buying control of this social site, Musk tried to reassure worried advertisers, who dislike controversy, by proclaiming, that Twitter “obviously cannot become a free-for-all hellscape, where anything can be said with no consequences!”

But Musk’s “tiny possibility” says a lot about “free-for-all” statements that appear online in the social media. If a person harbors a bias and can conjure up a theory that might remotely be thought possible by ignoring the facts, they can promote an alternative explanation to the evidence. Spreading falsehoods may turn a situation that might benefit an opponent against them.

With the growth of social media, a kind of dumping ground for opinion as much as a forum for discussion, a tweet like Musk’s could reach more people in 24 hours than all the newspapers in America. Unlike the press which is subject to some editorial standards and review, the social media allows anybody to say pretty much anything.

The claim is sometimes made that nobody can stop this baseless talk because everybody has the right to free speech. In fact, the First Amendment to the Constitution only prevents the government from controlling speech, but it says nothing that prohibits a company, say a social media owner, from controlling speech on its own site.

Texas and Florida both passed laws that would prevent social media outfits like Facebook and Twitter from deleting false or inflammatory messages. The states argued that the companies were violating the free speech rights of conservatives. Federal judges found that the state laws, covered by the First Amendment, violated the free speech rights of the social media companies. The cases are now at the Supreme Court.

Of course, nobody is required to access social media. And the traditional media and watchdogs can reveal untruths when they are spread.

But it’s a different matter when the U.S. Supreme Court chooses to make decisions affecting millions based on false assertions contrary to the facts. It seems to be inclined to do just that on matters relating to race, the most significant issue in U.S. history.

In 2013, the Court ended federal government preapproval of voting law changes in areas where Black citizens’ voting rights had been limited. The Chief Justice wrote that Black voter registration was high, making protection unnecessary.

That dubious finding got him where he wanted to go. His decision was like saying that, when crime is low, we don’t need police. That intentionally ignores the effect that a police presence has on crime. Right after the decision, some states raced to reverse laws that protected Black voters, proving him wrong.

Threats to Black voting access, widely known and understood, were simply dismissed by a Court with little interest in civil rights. Last week, the Court seemed ready to intentionally make the same mistake. This time the case involves attempts by universities to have a diversified student body, which means Blacks may get some preference in admissions.

The justices, except for Clarence Thomas, seemed to recognize that diversity has educational value. But they wondered how long universities should be allowed to continue to pursue diversity and whether this policy unfairly denies admission to some people.

They ignored the point that, without an effort to promote diversity, it might melt as fast as voting rights did in 2013. Just as then, they were ready to believe something that’s not true – that discrimination and lack of access don’t much matter these days. The fact that the legacy of slavery has not yet been fully resolved simply escaped the attention of the justices.

Conventional wisdom could be wrong in this year’s elections

Gordon L. Weil

With the elections at hand, the conventional wisdom is that the Republicans will gain, almost certainly picking up control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate.  President Biden has a net negative rating and that’s expected to aid the GOP across the board.

The political analysts reach these conclusions based on three factors: the polls, higher retail prices that can easily be blamed on government spending, and the usual loss of seats in Congress by the president’s party in midterm elections.

Most election speculation is based on polling data.  The public is bombarded with online surveys and automated phone soundings to find out what issues matter to people and how they will vote. But there’s plenty wrong with polls.

Public opinion surveys are most reliable when they are based on a truly random sample of the population. They don’t exist.  Many people refuse or those who answer are not typical. Pollsters adjust the results and their natural bias can creep in. The survey questions may reflect political leaning if not outright bias. And the results are subject to interpretation. 

In short, polling dictates commentary and there’s good reason to be skeptical of it.  On this shaky foundation, the punditry begins.  The analysts sound authoritative, but at best they are making informed guesses.  The expectations created by polls that have the aura of being objective can affect decisions voters make at the ballot box.   Polls create momentum.

Biden tells us that the elections depend on whether the parties get their voters to the polls. The gap between a survey result and what people really do, including not even showing up to vote, is what the Democrats hope will refute the forecasts.

Inflation has become the big issue because it hits you every day.  What either party did for them six months ago matters less to many voters than what they pay for groceries or gasoline today. 

Higher prices have several causes.  The increase in the cost of oil and gas, the major economic byproduct of the Ukraine War, affects almost everything we buy.  Just like the disease itself, the economic effects of Covid-19 seem to be staying with us and are costly.  Bringing production home from China raises costs.

Though these factors are undeniable, they are simplistically boiled down to the cost of government being too high.  The GOP is the party that wants to lower taxes and cut down the size of government. 

Even if there’s a disconnect between benefiting from government action, like renewed roads or Covid-19 income support, and wanting a smaller government, the price of daily purchases may be somewhat blindly dictating the political response.  The purse beats policy.

Conventional wisdom also tells us that people are concerned about crime.  It is difficult to know what that means to each voter, but there is undoubtedly a sense that things are getting out of control when each day’s news seems to contain a report of killings of innocent people.  Without knowing how to stop these incidents, voters may feel that authorities should do better.

It’s also possible that talking about “crime” really relates to ill-considered calls to “defund” the police or police treatment of Blacks and the related reactions to tense situations.

Elections are supposed to give the people the opportunity to tell political leaders how they rate.  Whether the hopes raised in a presidential election year have been realized becomes the test.  If there’s enough disappointment, those in power suffer.  That’s considered to be the normal rule.

The country seems to be evenly divided politically.  As a result, even a small swing to one side or the other can change who’s in control of the government.  This year, there are at least two other factors at work.

One of them is Donald Trump’s effect.  The Republicans have produced some candidates who are closely aligned with him and his policies.  Do they appeal only to the right wing of the GOP, essentially ceding the election to the Democrats, or do they represent a majority of the voters?  Here’s where Biden’s emphasis on Democratic turnout may matter.

Politics in America has always contained a lot of negativity.  You are asked to vote for a candidate because of the defects of their opponent not because of their skills or policies. The chief casualty of this kind of politics is truth.  That’s one reason why elections almost inevitably lead to voter disappointment.

The other factor, mainly identified with the GOP, is voter suppression.  Reducing the effect of Democratic voters by gerrymandering districts, making access to voting difficult or even questionable vote counting are expected to be key factors in flipping the House to the Republicans.

Taking all this into account, we probably know less than we think we do about next month’s election results.