Voters take control; the referendum wave

 

Gordon L. Weil

Democracy is breaking out all across the country.

Not representative democracy, the hallmark of the Republic, but the original version– direct democracy.  That’s when people themselves decide, legislating in place of their elected representatives.  In Maine and other New England states, many local governments use the Town Meeting, the people’s legislature.  That kind of popular control is becoming, well, more popular.

In Arizona a few years ago, voters grew unhappy with legislatively drawn election districts.  Through a referendum, they adopted an independent districting commission. The legislature sued the commission, claiming that it alone had power over districting.  The U.S. Supreme Court confirmed that the people are the ultimate legislature, and the commission went ahead.

Decision-making by the people had taken off early last century, and the people now adopt laws in 26 states.  The movement grew as populism placed greater trust in average voters than the U.S. Constitution’s drafters had thought wise.  A turning point came when the Constitution was amended to move U.S. Senate elections from state legislatures to the voters.

Early populism favoring government by the people grew under progressive Republican leadership in the Midwest.  That movement also promoted public control of electric power, which helps explain why Nebraska, a conservative state, is dominated by consumer-owned electric utilities and has no for-profit power companies.

In 1908, Maine became the first state east of the Mississippi to adopt popular legislative action.  Voters must approve amendments to the state constitution, as in 48 other states, but, unlike some other states, they cannot propose amendments.  They may also decide by referendum on proposed laws sent to them by state government. 

Maine also uses “initiative,” allowing voters to propose and vote on laws without state government involvement.  This includes the “People’s Veto,” allowing voters to overturn legislative acts.   However, the Legislature can amend initiatives adopted by voters.

Four of this year’s ballot items are initiatives, with three relating to Pine Tree Power, the proposed consumer-owned, non-profit utility.  It was petitioned onto the ballot after Gov. Janet Mills vetoed the referendum proposal of the Legislature. 

Question 3 asks if voters will approve Pine Tree Power replacing CMP and Versant Power as their wires company.

Question 1 asks if voters want to approve major loans by certain entities. It is meant to require a later vote on Pine Tree Power’s borrowing to acquire the utility property, giving the two ousted utilities a second chance to block the new company.

Question 2 asks if voters want to bar foreign government-backed entities from financing future Maine elections.  CMP is owned by a Spanish company and Versant is owned by a Canadian utility. Their role could arise in future votes on new power lines and the loan approval, if it is required.

Question 4, the fourth initiative, would require automobile manufacturers to standardize repair diagnostics.  They oppose it.  Its proponents claim such a law would help independent shops to service new vehicles.

There are four referendums to amend the state constitution.

Question 5 would extend the period for judicial review of written petitions by an estimated 40 days.

Question 6 would require the full text of the state constitution to be printed, not now the case.  Omitted are the state’s treaty obligations to American Indians, inherited from Massachusetts upon Maine becoming a state.

Question 7 would remove the requirement that people circulating election petitions must be Maine voters, bringing Maine into compliance with federal court rulings.

Question 8 would eliminate the current ban on voting by people under guardianship for reasons of mental illness.

If political divisiveness continues to plague the federal government, more key decision-making could be left to the states.  With many Republican red states and Democratic blue states, political divisions could align with state boundaries.

The influence of money in politics does not disappear when referendums are used. As Mainers are experiencing in the campaign about Pine Tree Power, the two investor-owned utilities are far outspending a volunteer band of citizens in an effort to defeat the proposed non-profit utility.

In referendums, unlimited spending can reveal the power of vested economic interests.  That’s less true for abortion, a social issue where politics not profit may dominate.

Last year, the Supreme Court reversed itself on the federal right to abortion, and said the issue was up to the states.  Rather than let either ancient laws or conservative legislatures decide, people resorted to referendums.  In five of six states that voted, popular votes have protected the abortion right.  More such votes are slated.

If political power shifts somewhat to the states, direct democracy there may grow, especially when statewide popular votes could overrule artificial legislative majorities made possible by partisan gerrymandering.   The abortion votes may also encourage the increased use of referendums on other issues in many states.

We could be turning a constitutional corner.

Climate crisis needs all solutions, including nuclear

 

Gordon L. Weil

A U.S. Open Tennis Tournament match was suspended so a climate protester, who had glued his bare feet to the ground, could be removed.

Though his means of expression was extreme, his protest was valid.  The U.N. group tracking progress in halting global warming issued its report almost the same day.  The world is not getting there.

Most countries have set the net emissions goal for greenhouse gasses (GHG) at zero by the middle of the century – just 27 years from now.  With massive understatement, the report says that achieving that “goal requires broad and rapid changes in existing practices.” 

Can anyone seriously believe the net zero goal for GHG – mainly resulting from carbon-producing fossil fuels – will be achieved by then?  The U.S. struggles to cut emissions and begins to try taking carbon out of the air.  Meanwhile China, the next largest producer, keeps adding coal-fired power plants.

Energy to fuel cars, heat homes and run offices and factories will come largely from electricity.  Electric power will have to come from wind, solar and even hydro to make a serious dent in the use of fossil fuels.  Sustained efforts at efficiency, which means using less, are essential but unlikely to cover the gap left by renewables.

There are good reasons for restrained enthusiasm about renewables.  They depend on the weather, which is far from being under human control and perhaps shouldn’t be.  They also are not always available just at the time they’re needed.  Continuous power supply from renewables will require electricity storage that is not yet fully developed.

Ending global warming is a matter of economics.  Oil companies talk a better game about renewables than they play.   Renewables may produce long-term savings and new jobs, but the transition may raise costs and reduce jobs.  And a new world economy increases demand for energy. 

Renewables won’t be enough.  Focusing heavily on them avoids talking about the elephant in the room.  It does not produce carbon. Its technology is available now.  It reduces dependence on questionable energy suppliers like Russia and Saudi Arabia.  It is nuclear power.

Apprehension about nuclear power has two main causes.  The first is the destructive power of the atom revealed by the two bombs that ended World War II.  The second is the demonstrated failure of some power producers to understand how or where to build a nuclear power plant, which caused accidents or even disasters.  Think Chernobyl.

The fear has been so deep that some people want to dismantle nuclear power.  Before it was closed, the Maine Yankee nuclear power plant faced no less than three referendums and prevailed in all.  For some politicians, nuclear power has become an automatic no-no.  The U.N. report, aware of political sensitivities, never uses the word “nuclear.”

Government and industry are learning that building a nuclear generating station is not the same as a traditional oil or coal unit.  In New England, that lesson was learned at the Seabrook plant in New Hampshire.  A unit was put into service only after an experienced nuclear expert replaced the local utility managers.

Industry hasn’t been helping enough.  Discharges of water from the Japanese Fukushima plant may be as harmless as claimed, but they have set back the use of nuclear power.  Many people will not trust a company that hosted a nuclear disaster.  The plant’s name should have been allowed to fade into relative obscurity.  There had to be a better way, even if it cost more.

Concerns are met by government regulators, but the process is slow.  Industry may resist and neighbors may worry.  A more uniform regulatory review process could help.  Federal regulators are developing it, but it remains to be tested in practice. 

The US, UK, Japan and other countries are working to aid the development of nuclear fusion power plants.  Fusion reactors produce little radioactive waste and require small amounts of fuel. U.S. federal aid goes to commercial developers, who seem to be the most advanced.

Even with efficiency, renewables and now nuclear in the works, much needs to be done. New generators and lines must be built. Auto charging points must work faster and be more available.  Storage, from car batteries to wind farms or hydro reserves, must be created. Like nuclear power, they can face local opposition and impose new costs – the price of reversing global warming.

Obviously, the world cannot cling to fossil fuels or bet on a single solution to the climate crisis.   There once was a song, “Wishing Will Make It So.”  Nice kids’ song, but bad public policy.

The problem is that human civilization is now being transformed by climate change. All available solutions must be used.  Renewables, efficiency, and nuclear all impose costs.  So does doing nothing.

 

 

China's claims, presidential race, Maine campaign -- all use fake numbers

Americans have an almost religious faith in numbers.  When people believe in statistics, that helps politicians.

People keep their faith despite the truth of that old saying, “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure.”

Nowhere is that more accurate than in political campaigns.  It’s evident now both in Maine and on the national and world scene.

In the campaign waged by for-profit CMP and Versant against the proposed non-profit Pine Tree Power, the two current companies say that it will take $13.5 billion to compensate them for selling their property.  That sounds daunting enough to overwhelm any other issues.

The simple answer is that the exact cost cannot now be known.  As in virtually all cases of this kind, the two sides don’t agree on a price and a court decides.  The PTP proposal even recognizes that a Maine court will decide.

Beyond that, the inflated amount results from one of the basic reasons why a lot of numbers and polls are much less reliable than they may seem.  They are based on the assumptions used.  For example, the two utilities paid for the study that yields the high number, so it’s expectable that its assumptions would help them.

In addition, there is a recent utility acquisition in Maine that could influence a court.  In 2020, Versant bought its utility from Emera.  It paid the audited value of the property plus a premium of about 21 percent.  If that same approach were used in the PTP takeover, the cost would be less than $7.5 billion.

Finally, the customers of those two utilities now pay for their poles and wires and they would continue to be responsible.  They are now paying off about $5.4 billion, so that would not be a new cost.  Somewhere in the heated and costly campaign, these facts, undermining the $13.5 billion claim, get lost.

The numbers in the presidential match-up between Biden and Trump are just as dubious. The average of major national polls has them even. The media pushes the story of a dead heat between the two seeking another four years in the White House.

There are a lot of problems with this conclusion, even if it seems to be based on the poll numbers.  The most obvious is the failure to take account of the 11 percent who did not pick either candidate.  Where will they go or will they stay home?  What about the people who refused to answer?  They are certainly enough to swing a national election.

These numbers might have some small interest if there were a national presidential election decided by the popular vote.  But there isn’t.  There are 51 separate elections (the states and DC).  To have a better view of who’s leading would require knowing about the presidential race in each state.  But polls simply do not yet exist for many states.

Timing also matters a lot.  The polls, limited as they are, are conducted 14 months before the elections.  The candidates have not yet been selected and campaign developments can affect the final result.  Court cases and potential third party participants will affect the results just as will the size of the turnout.

In short, the numbers that supposedly inform people of the likely outcome of a presidential election offer little useful guidance. They may even be biased by the way questions are asked or the voters choose to answer.  Voter beware.

Finagling the numbers doesn’t stop at the border.  China wants to show the world that the Communist Party’s version of economics is superior to the U.S. free enterprise system.  That’s a key part of its effort to attract the developing countries, turning the Southern Hemisphere into China’s sphere of influence.

According to its numbers, its economic growth looked unbelievably good. But don’t believe China’s economic data, because they have been lying.  When it became clear that its economy did not match its claims, the Director of the National Statistics Bureau there admitted that, “fraud and deception happen from time to time, in violation of statistics laws and regulations.”

Number crunchers have been recalculating when China might pass the U.S. as the world’s largest economy.  Because of its huge population and proclaimed growth, it looked like it could happen this decade. In fact, it may never happen.

The reasons are both its slower economic growth and a declining population caused by limiting family sizes plus an aging population.  Lies about the size of the Chinese population are now being revealed.

The message? Be skeptical of other people’s numbers. The real effect on you of electric rates or presidential elections or the rivalry with China matter more than the often phony numbers designed to impress or confuse you. Number One is still the most important number.