'One person, one vote' can't happen in presidential elections

Gordon L. Weil

In a presidential election, should a vote in Brunswick, Biddeford or Bangor, Maine, carry less than half the weight of a vote in Cheyenne, Cody or Casper, Wyoming?

That's what happened in 2016. And Wyoming wasn't the only state with more influence for each of its voters than Maine. By the same token, a Maine voter had more influence than those in some other states.

The rule of "one person, one vote" does not apply to presidential elections.

A popular vote counts each person's vote the same. But people don't vote for president. They vote for Electors, members of the Electoral College, a mythical institution not found in the Constitution.

The Constitution's drafters created a separate presidential election in each state. A state is assigned a number of Electors equal to the total of its U.S. senators and representatives. The result is not the same as votes distributed proportional to population.

Voting by state was meant as an inducement for states, then powerful political forces, to ratify the Constitution. Voting by Electors would keep government under the control of a few wise citizens, not average people who could be swayed by political campaigns.

Since 1787, the central, national power of the federal government has grown at the expense of states.

Also, the people, not a few wise men, have come to elect their leaders. The amended Constitution requires a Senate elected by the people, not by state legislatures. It now says that voters include members of all races, women and young people.

Despite such efforts to better align congressional representation with the popular will, more reform is needed, as discussed previously in this series.

But nothing at all has been done to improve the expression of popular will in the election of the increasingly powerful president. In five national elections, the president had fewer popular votes than the loser. Two of the five most recent elections produced a minority winner.

The presidential election is now a national process to elect a national leader, not separate state elections. Yet the preservation of the electoral vote serves mainly to override the will of the people. That is likely to happen more often.

Not only does the country live with this undemocratic situation, but some Electors make it worse by not voting for candidates they were elected to support. So-called "faithless Electors" amounted to about one percent of all Electors in 2016. That's more influence than Maine has.

Maine and Nebraska have tried splitting their electoral vote somewhat proportionately, but electoral math shows this method cannot produce a national result reflecting the popular will.

It is difficult to argue with the rule that each person's vote should count just as much as any other person's vote. To bring the presidential election in line with this now commonly accepted rule, the winner must be elected by the popular vote across the country. It's only fair.

Each state may determine how its Electors vote. States may require their electoral votes to go to the winner of the national election, resulting in each person's vote counting the same. If states with a combined 270 electoral votes – the majority required for winning – adopt this rule, it should automatically go into effect.

The National Popular Vote campaign reports that 15 states plus D.C. with 196 electoral votes have adopted this rule. Only 74 more votes are needed. While it is unlikely to happen in time for 2020, the change seems inevitable.

Maine came close this year to signing on, but pulled back. Political opposition, nostalgia for the Electoral College and worries about losing a little voting weight were factors. Both its electoral vote and popular vote influence are less than one percent.

Unfortunately, this is a partisan matter and not only a question of good government or fair elections. The current system favors Republicans, the minority victors in past presidential elections. Its opposition to the popular vote is part of an avowed voter suppression strategy in states voting for Democrats.

The Constitution requires state legislation on the electoral vote procedure. The Supreme Court has ruled that a referendum vote, possible in Maine and in many other states, is a legislative act. When legislatures won't act, citizens may be able to find a path of their own toward popular election of the president.

The electoral vote with its "Electoral College" can be preserved. Throughout American history, states have repeatedly changed how their Electors are chosen. The obvious threat of persistent minority rule means, once again, it's time for a change.

Note: This is the third of a series on how to reform the federal government without amending the Constitution.

Simple Senate reform can end McConnell's dictatorship

Gordon L. Weil

Note: This is the second of a series on how to reform the federal government without amending the Constitution.

A single person now prevents Congress from taking almost any action, including even to consider a bill or a nomination.

President Trump?  Another constitutional leader?  No, a mere party official – the Majority Leader in the U.S. Senate – has the absolute authority to set the national agenda.  If he (there's never been a woman) decides to keep any matter from coming before the Senate, it's dead. 

By himself, the Majority Leader can kill any measure, even proposed by the president, especially when the president leads the opposing party. 

These days, Kentucky GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell wields that power, given to him by the Republican Senate majority.   

When voters elect Republican senators, including Maine's Susan Collins, who in turn choose him, they indirectly pick the most powerful person in the federal legislative process.

Can anything be done about this dictatorial system, not foreseen when the Constitution was drafted?

Of course, it could.  If senators were bold enough to strip the majority leader of power, a Senate majority could set its own agenda.

But that would give rise to an equally serious problem.  Each state, no matter its population, has two votes in the Senate.  It would be mathematically possible for senators representing states with as little at 18 percent of the total U.S. population to control the Senate and set its agenda.

Even without that extreme case, representatives of a minority of the people could always be in charge of the Senate.  In fact, simple majority votes are often decided by senators representing less than half of the population.

Originally, the House was supposed to represent the people and the Senate was supposed to represent states.  But the Constitution was amended, replacing state legislatures' election of senators by popular vote.  At that point, a method had to be found to prevent minority rule.

"Cloture" was invented to require an extra-large majority to end debate before final Senate votes.  It virtually assures that the supermajority of 60 out of the 100 senators will represent a popular majority.  And it won't allow the majority party to steamroller the minority party, insurance against their roles being reversed later.

That works, so long as the majority leader wants it.  McConnell decided he wanted to ensure conservatives got their court picks.  Confirming Supreme Court justices was changed to require only a simple majority.  Confirmation votes became completely political and increased the possibility of minority rule.

Previously, McConnell had prevented the Senate from even considering a Supreme Court nominee of President Obama.  So, he used his considerable power to prevent consideration of one court nominee while allowing two others to be confirmed for the first time by simple majorities.  Opposition Democrats shrugged off his actions, accepting the system.

Just this week, McConnell blocked election security bills, including one that would have required backup paper ballots to blunt computer vote tampering.

The power exercised by the majority leader is far removed from democracy and open government in America.  Does he have too much power for one person in this country?

If the Senate is to take control from McConnell or any majority leader, it must find a new, fair and democratic voting system.  Because the Constitution requires only a simple majority, the way to control runaway minority government remains overcoming a higher procedural hurdle before that vote.

The solution can be found in reforming the cloture rule.  That can be done in a way that is both consistent with the democratic spirit of the Constitution and assures true majority rule.

The system that McConnell has installed for confirming federal judges should apply to all votes.  Debate should be ended by a simple majority – but with one essential condition.

While each issue would have to pass a cloture vote by simple majority, that majority would have to include senators representing a majority of the population, according to the latest census.  When the two senators from the same state disagree, its population should be divided with half attributed to each.

This fair, new rule would be quite similar to the traditional rule.  And, just as the cloture rule has been adopted and amended over time, this revised procedure could be included in Senate rules by a simple majority of the Senate, when it adopts them every two years.

This system is called qualified majority voting.  It is used today in the European Union, and it works.  Reforming Senate voting and toppling control by a single person could be easily done.  One-person rule in the American government would end.

Qualified majority voting would greatly increase the likelihood that votes would depend on support by members of both parties.  Using it in the Senate would force compromise and get decisions made.

U.S. House of Representatives should be enlarged

Gordon L. Weil

There was once a legislative district shaped like a salamander. Its creator was a man named Gerry and making more weirdly shaped districts has come to be known as gerrymandering.

Every ten years, the U.S. conducts a census and, in most states, the party that controls the state legislature then gets to draw the congressional district map for the next ten years. Last month, the Supreme Court decided it could do nothing when states gerrymandered for political purposes.

That's not all. Even if states stopped setting district boundaries for partisan purposes, many people would still be denied an equal vote. Combined, the practices cheat many voters.

Gerrymandering can be fixed by states. Improving voter equality can be fixed by Congress simply by enlarging the U.S. House of Representatives.

In many states, Republican legislatures skillfully packed Democrats into as few districts as possible, allowing the GOP to win more seats than their share of the state's vote would give it. The Democrats have done the same in one state.

Even in Maine with only two congressional districts, last time around the Republicans tried to reshape them to boost their chances.

Some states are moving to fix the districting process. In Pennsylvania, for example, the state's top court ruled that the GOP lawmakers had violated the state constitution. In Arizona, a referendum took control over districting away from the GOP legislature, giving it to an independent commission.

More states are likely to use their own laws to reduce political gerrymandering. And the Democrats have increased their focus on winning state legislative elections in 2020, so they can halt GOP mapmaking. Killing the gerrymander is good hunting for them.

Even with better districting, the country still misses "one person, one vote" in House elections. Each state gets one automatic House seat, no matter its population. As the population exploded in some states and the total number of House members didn't, truly equal representation across the country was steadily reduced.

At the moment, the district with the largest population has just about twice the number of people as the smallest. That means some voters count almost twice as much as others in House elections.

To come close to eliminating the excessive influence of some voters and also make progress in ending political gerrymandering, the size of the U.S. House of Representatives should be increased. That would lead to a major redistricting shakeup.

Congress sets the size of the House, but the last time it increased the number of members was 1911, more than a century ago. Since then, the American population has more than tripled.

Of course, the House should not grow so large as to be unmanageable. But with five new states added since then and huge population growth, it ought to be somewhat larger.

The best solution would be to make the target population of all House districts equal to the size of the small state that receives only the single, automatic vote – Wyoming. The preferential effect of the automatic vote would be eliminated.

The size of the House would then increase from the current 435 to 547. Britain, France and Germany each have larger legislatures.

The current system favors small, rural states, while holding down equal representation for California and Texas voters. Enlargement would add representatives in 39 states, and no state would lose a seat. It would reduce the overrepresentation of states that has given outsized legislative influence to the Republicans.

The result would be districts far more nearly equal in population, bringing the country closer to one person, one vote. Smaller district populations could bring representatives closer to their constituents. New seats would account for the growth of urban America.

More House members could lead to splitting up today's large, unwieldy House committees so that each member could become more expert and more active. They would not be spread over multiple committees. New members could give the House new power.

The effect on the national budget would be almost invisible. Even now, the entire Congress accounts for only about one-twentieth of one percent of federal spending.

Increasing the size of the House would require significantly redrawing district lines in all but the smallest states. Beyond state action, Congress might find it had previously unused powers to ensure compact districts and kill the gerrymander.

Concern about political gerrymandering is now mounting, showing the need for the states and Congress to act. But redistricting won't be enough. For the first time since 1911, the House should be enlarged to help preserve rule by "We, the People."

Note: This is the first of a series on how to reform the federal government without amending the Constitution.

Trump wants Fed to cut already low rates, but that could harm seniors

Gordon L. Weil

Donald Trump's strongest political case for re-election is the success of the American economy.  It's also a big risk, and he knows it.

That's why he lambasts the Federal Reserve for not lowering interest rates.  He believes that lower rates will stimulate more growth, keeping the historic Obama-Trump recovery going.

His demands for lower interest rates and his frontal attacks on Jerome Powell, his own choice as Fed chair, have created an open war between the president and the independent Fed.  

Short-term political demands can conflict with the Fed's role to protect the economy long-term.  That's what seems to be what's happening now.

The recovery from the Great Recession has been long but not especially strong.  The benefits have not been the same for all Americans.

Republicans blocked President Obama's effort for a second economic push, leaving the Fed to handle the recovery.  It cut interest rates and made money available for borrowers, successfully stimulating economic activity.

The GOP tax cut and Trump's cutback on environmental regulation have helped sustain the recovery.  But its long life, the president's strongest political argument, carries considerable risk.  Trump needs it to last even longer, through to the November 2020 election.

He has long believed in low interest rates, partly because of his experience as a borrower for real estate investments.  He argues that growth would have been higher if interest rates had been cut, and they should be slashed now to juice up higher growth.

Trump openly believes that the Fed should follow his policies.  Yet, like other central banks in free market economies that manage major world currencies, the Fed is supposed to operate independently of the politics of the day.  That's one reason its members' terms are 14 years, well beyond even two presidential terms.

Central banks take a long view of their role in promoting a stable currency and economic conditions that will increase employment.  The Fed, now composed primarily of Republican economists, has done that consistently since the Great Recession of 2008.

By cutting interest rates, it made investment and home buying easier.  As the recovery continued, it gradually began increasing rates, though they still remain well below the rates of the past 60 years. 

Taking care that its small steps would not harm the recovery, the Fed began increasing rates so that it would have a tool – its ability to again cut rates – if there were signs of a recession.  Trump ignores that longer range concern and focuses on his desire for higher growth now.

If there is any reason the Fed might cut rates, it is the uncertainty created by the president's trade moves that unsettle world markets.  Wobbles elsewhere could spread to the U.S.

Trying to impose his will on the Fed, Trump has openly sought ways to dump Powell.  He would like the powers of the near-dictator Turkish president, who just fired his central bank chief.  And he envies the Chinese ruler's day-to-day economic control.  He ignores the need to protect the stability of the dollar, the standard world currency.

Two recent picks to fill Fed vacancies were obviously unqualified and were dropped.  One of the next two named openly displays her vast ignorance of monetary policy.

Unqualified nominees who do not support the Fed's independence are unlikely to be confirmed by the Senate, though it is under GOP control.  Republican resistance is similar to its unwillingness to eliminate the requirement for 60 votes to end debate on most bills, though Trump demands it.

The Republicans recognize that the Senate majority will almost inevitably shift one day to the Democrats.  They are likely to continue to protect Fed independence and require more than a simple majority.  It's not that they oppose Trump.  But they worry about what the Democrats would do.

Beyond these policy concerns, there's a practical reason to worry about unnecessary rate cuts.  When the Fed lowers interest rates, payouts are reduced on bonds, the fixed investments on which many retirees depend, whether its obvious to them or not.  The interest rate paid on bank savings also falls.

Maine has the highest median age in the U.S.  Lowering interest rates can cut retiree income.  Because the effects of any national economic policy are not evenly distributed, lower interest rates could harm older Mainers and not be offset by a small increase in national economic growth.

With its broad, long-term focus, the Fed can take such facts into account.  Trump's focus on how to force the Fed to help him win in 2020 doesn't do that.