Divided government has failed; Georgia run-offs could save it or kill it

 

Gordon L. Weil

Divided government – each party controlling part of the government – seems appealing.  It could produce compromise and block extreme policies.

But divided government is a failed myth.  Its virtues are elusive, and it often produces stalemate. Look at the federal government and Maine.

In October, President Trump passed a full year, one quarter of his term in office, refusing to talk with Democrat Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House. For a man who strives to set records, this gap in basic contact may be one.

In Maine, former GOP Gov. Paul LePage vetoed more bills than all his predecessors together over 100 years.  He threatened to veto all bills from the Democratic Legislature unless it abolished the state income tax. It didn’t, and he didn’t.

Checks and balances are basic to American government. The legislative, executive and judicial branches of government are supposed to keep a check on one another, maintaining a balance of power.

In theory, if government power is divided by the parties between the executive and the legislative branches or even within the legislature, that should produce balanced policies.  That could encourage voters to split their votes.  That’s what they did this year.

If voters saw the election as a referendum on President Trump, then obviously the decision went against him and to the alternative, Joe Biden.  Some Biden voters might ordinarily have supported a Republican incumbent, but opposed Trump.

After voting for Biden, many voters picked Republicans down the ticket.  Unusual in a presidential election year, the winner’s party lost some House seats and made only slight gains in the Senate even with more GOP senators up for reelection.  There was obvious ticket splitting. 

The immediate future of divided government is a prime focus of Georgia’s January run-off elections for two U.S. Senate seats.  If the GOP holds onto even one of them, divided control will continue in Washington.  Divided for sure; shared not likely. If the Democrats win both, they will control.

The proof that the current version of divided government does not work is shown by the failure so far to adopt a Covid-19 economic support bill.  Earlier relief bills served well, but more was needed to help people, small business and states weather the ongoing economic cutbacks and closures.

With an eye on the election, the parties could not agree.  The Democrats wanted major new aid and passed a big-spending bill in the House.  Senate Republicans resisted adding to the national debt, and would not agree to even a respectable fraction of what the Democrats had proposed. 

Having adopted strict party discipline, as if Congress were the British Parliament, the Republicans united to oppose a reduced, but still generous, Democratic compromise, even though some suggested they could break ranks.

The Democrats could hope the GOP would suffer for its opposition to more government aid.  The Republicans, even defying Trump, refused major new spending.  Neither sought whatever political credit might come from compromising.

This week, a bipartisan group finally came up with a GOP-sized compromise. Pushed by human needs resulting from the Covid-19 resurgence, it proposed a temporary patch.  Passage is not certain.

Add to party discipline the rise of extremism.   Legislators may worry they will lose their seats in party primaries if they compromise on extreme conservative positions.  Compromise could be good for the country, but perhaps not for their own political survival.

Democratic President Obama appointed some Republicans as federal judges. Trump and GOP Senate Leader McConnell appoint only true GOP conservatives. No compromise. So much for the promise of shared control.

Nowhere is divided government’s demise more obvious than at the state level. Only 11 states have divided governments, usually a governor of one party with a legislature of the other.  There are now 24 Republican “trifectas” (governor, house, senate) and 15 Democratic trifectas, including Maine.

In the 2020 elections, the Republicans increased their state control.  Their one-party control means they will influence U.S. House redistricting in more cases than the Democrats.  Redistricting takes place only once every ten years.

Biden-Trump brought out many voters, but with the exception of the presidential race, the effect of the election was to underline GOP support.  In Maine, with a popular Democratic governor, Republicans gained House seats.

In some states with GOP governors and Democratic legislatures, divided government has a chance of working.  In others, with Democratic governors and GOP legislatures, the Republicans have tried to legislate away the power of the governor.

In the federal government, if the GOP controls the U.S. Senate, divided government shows little sign of working.  Sen. Collins and others would have to break with McConnell to change that situation. 

Divided government has failed. The Georgia Senate races matter, because they will either keep it alive or end it.

 

Trump’s election claims meant to undermine Biden, lay basis for 2024 run

 

Gordon L. Weil

A conservative federal judge, a lifelong Republican, gets to decide on the Trump campaign’s effort to throw out all the votes in Pennsylvania, a state critical to Joe Biden’s election.  

If you are Republican, you might hope that the judge will help his party’s candidate.  But you might be surprised to learn that the president who appointed him was Democrat Barack Obama.

If you are a Democrat, you might be outraged that Obama’s Republican judge was confirmed while his Supreme Court nominee, a Democrat, was blocked by the GOP Senate.

If you prefer the rule of law over the law of the political jungle, here’s a good judge on a bad case.

Facing the Covid-19 crisis, many states allowed for a major increase in mailed-in ballots.  Reluctant to visit polling places, voters gained lower risk access by the expanded use of absentee voting.  In some states, mailed-in ballots exceeded in-person voting.

Trump claimed that mail ballots invite vote tampering and fictitious voters.  The opportunities for cheating were so obvious to him that no evidence was needed.

He also charged that vote counters themselves cheated and election officials of both parties favored Biden.  He cast himself as the victim of a national conspiracy.  Enough votes should be thrown out to make him the election winner.

As in any human activity, some cheating must exist in the conduct of elections. Historically, it has never affected more than a few ballots, not enough to change the result.  Every case must be spotted almost immediately with hard supporting evidence.

Trump’s advocates acted like his political toadies, not trained legal experts. Despite making big promises, Rudy Giuliani ranted about conspiracy theories but offered no evidence. 

After making baseless charges, they dropped their fraud claims and admitted that both parties had been treated the same.  They still insisted the election should be overturned.

The Pennsylvania case boiled down to two voters whose ballots were rejected, because they ignored voting rules. If successful, they wanted the election nullified, leaving Pennsylvania with no electoral votes.  The judge rejected the demand that an election could be erased, because of a complaint by two voters.

While the focus has been on his futile attempt to retain office after having lost an election, Trump may be laying the foundation for his political future.  His fundraising has surely been designed to help his financial future.  Trump’s plan could be that claiming an unjust defeat now helps him build and retain a disgruntled political base for 2024. 

Just as he dismissed the Obama presidency, Trump may use his fraud claims as the basis for trying to undermine Biden.  He could lead a potentially large, dissident minority that seeks Biden’s failure. Not only would that strategy aid his next campaign, but it could weaken Biden’s moves to undo his policies.

There has been furious talk about the damage caused by Trump’s efforts to claim victory and block the transition.  Some of that talk may be written off to politics.  But the assertion that Trump threatens democracy is real.

The American system of government begins with votes by “We, the People.”  Everything else is built on that foundation.  If basic decisions, like who should hold public office, are made by anybody other than the people, that’s not democracy.

For a quarter century, partisanship has increased.  In particular, Trump and his supporters believe that more than merely disagreeing with the Democrats, they face an opposing party threatening their freedom.  If so, any action to block its access to power is acceptable.

In the extreme, this amounts to saying that to save America, you may have to throttle democracy. 

That approach can be seen in Trump’s way of governing.  His executive orders amount to authoritarian rule, not decision-making by the people’s elected representatives.

This aggressive form of government operates because congressional Republicans fear running afoul of the millions of people who support Trump.  They remain quiet, refrain from showing leadership, and allow him wide discretion.

Republican senators say Trump has the right to go to court if he believes the elections were not fair.  He relied on their forbearance.  But, without evidence, going to court is not a right.  If merely asserting a right would assure courtroom success, judges would be kings.

But many judges take their independence seriously, as did Judge Matthew Brann in Pennsylvania.  The Constitution held firm at the federal court in Williamsport, Pennsylvania.

“This Court has been presented with strained legal arguments,” Brann wrote, “... unsupported by evidence. In the United States of America, this cannot justify the disenfranchisement of a single voter, let alone all the voters of its sixth most populated state.”

In short, you can’t have America without democracy, and democracy means voters – all of them.

 

National Popular Vote for president would stop election games

 

Gordon L. Weil

The 2020 election and its huge turnout are historic. President Trump gets the credit for bringing out more voters than any other American president.  

They defied Trump’s efforts to undermine confidence in voting. Determined to vote, the people also would not let Covid-19 cut off the breath of democracy.

Despite a well-run election, with special care taken because of his attacks on mail-in ballots, Trump has done his best to undermine confidence in the outcome.  There’s no doubt he has caused lasting damage and deepened the split between his supporters and the majority of voters.

The election revealed three serious weaknesses in how the U.S. deals with its most important election – too much influence by the polls and by pundits and too little respect for the will of the people.

Polls no longer work.  In the world of “fake news” and the social media that spreads it instantly, polls do not measure public sentiment well.  The mismatch between the forecasts and the results helped feed Trump’s attempt to undermine the election.

Polls are dangerously misleading and influence voters. The pollsters know polls have failed, but they keep feeding the addiction they promote for profit.  There’s a real desire to know what people think, but polls are obviously not the way to find out; elections are.

Pundits rely on polls. They speculate continuously on each day’s polling data. They offer what is supposed to be instant analyses, but are usually thinly disguised expressions of their own hopes for the result.   

The message is that we shouldn’t trust polls or pundits.  And we should eliminate the system that allows the kind of post-election crisis created by Trump. Elect the president by national popular vote. Knowing who won would be quicker and easier, reducing the chance for protests and the influence of polls.

Choosing presidential electors by states was a compromise among the 39 men who signed the draft Constitution in Philadelphia in 1787.  They wanted to entice the states to ratify it, and they didn’t fully trust a vote of the people.

This system gives voters in small states outsized influence on the choice of president. A single Wyoming voter counts the same as 3.8 California voters or 1.8 Mainers.  That’s not fair, because presidents can be elected by a majority of electoral votes while losing the popular vote.

That happened in 2000, thanks to a partisan Supreme Court, and 2016.  In the four cases since the Civil War, the beneficiary has been the Republican Party.  If Trump’s goal were reached this year, it would be the third time in the last six elections over a period of just 20 years.

Despite President-Elect Biden’s optimism, the partisan division among Americans runs deep with almost no room for compromise.  The right believes it is the victim of the political system. The left believes Trumpers would trash democracy for authoritarian rule.

It makes it worthwhile for the Republicans to “game the system” by trying to suppress or disqualify voters in states with close results. Partisanship has overwhelmed patriotism.

Times have changed. The Constitution itself has been amended five times to extend the franchise. States play a smaller role than in the 18^th Century. The U.S. has become one media market.

“Originalists” want the country to stick to the Constitution. But it has been badly bent out of shape, especially by Trump.

For example, the Framers of the Constitution believed that federal judges should serve for life, their terms insulating them from shifting, short-term political currents. 

But if presidents and compliant Senates pack the courts with political judges, the party in power can use them to protect and extend its control even if it lost an election. Trump was stunningly clear that getting help in any electoral dispute was why he rushed his Supreme Court appointment of Amy Coney Barrett.

Of course, we will always have the opinions of pundits. But they should be taken as just opinion not expertise.  We may also always have polls, but they should continue to fade.

A national popular election would reduce the influence of polls and pundits and make gaming the system almost impossible. If not, democracy could be killed by misuse of an outdated political deal. 

The problems are all about polls, pundits and people.  The country needs less influence from the first two and more by the people. The system can be simplified.

The National Popular Vote Compact does the job without amending the Constitution. States can agree to require their electoral votes go to the national winner.  The NPV is growing closer to being adopted, having been approved by both GOP and Democratic legislatures across the country. 

Only a few more states are needed. Maine should be one of them.

 

Biden’s bipartisan dreams may turn into partisan nightmare; Maine’s role

 

Gordon L. Weil

As news reports named Joe Biden as president-elect, Donald Trump denied his defeat and launched unsupported claims of fraud. 

Only a few Senate Republicans congratulated Biden, including an equivocal Susan Collins.  Most backed his pursuing unfounded complaints, preventing or delaying a smooth transition. 

Trump, the personal president, may be nothing more than a sore loser.  But the GOP signals that it will fight Biden, not cooperate. Voters who liked the idea of divided government were fooling themselves, because the election yielded more divisive government.

The result could look like this. When his term ended in 2017, Barack Obama left over 100 vacancies among the federal judges, more than 10 percent of the seats, including one on the Supreme Court.  GOP Majority Leader Mitch McConnell blocked his nominations.

After Trump became president, McConnell whipped through hundreds of his nominees, many without careful review by the Senate.

The confirmation of federal judges is just one example of the kind of control that McConnell, with the support of a bare majority of senators, would have over President Biden.

The only way McConnell could lose his grip would be the unlikely victory of both Democrats in the Georgia Senate run-offs in January.  Should that happen, the Democrats could control the Senate.  In effect, the presidential election ends in Georgia. Watch the campaign money flow.

The Supreme Court sits quietly with a majority of justices who have expressed their hostility to the positions favored by Biden. They are said to be conservatives, but they risk being partisan.  Or they can stay out of the fray.

Faced with a hostile Senate majority, Biden’s bipartisan dreams will die an early death.  That seems already to have happened.

Of course, as Trump is fond of saying, elections have consequences. That means that if you win, you gain the right to have things your way. No compromise; it’s “my way or the highway.”

Biden favors bipartisan cooperation to adopt national policy through compromise. Unreal. Maybe he just wants a basis for later blaming the Republicans for the failures of government. Or maybe he’s fooling himself.

If he is planning a national counterattack when McConnell does his thing, he may be unduly optimistic.  People may say they want compromise, but there are few moderates who can swing behind him.  The country is deeply divided; it’s not simply a matter of disagreeing on issues.

There is no reason for McConnell to compromise. Almost as good as being able to set policy and pick the judges is his ability to stop the other side from doing it.

Maine had a major role to play in this outcome through the Senate election.  The essential issue was either taking McConnell’s power away by electing a Democrat to tip the Senate balance or backing him by reelecting Susan Collins, who has been loyal to him on most key issues.

Many Maine voters were distracted by less important issues.  That was the Republican playbook.  The Democrats came up short in trying to make McConnell the issue. Joe Biden, confident he would carry the state, never came to Maine to say he needed a Democrat in the Senate.  He will pay the price.

Maine Democrats missed George Mitchell, a former Senate Majority Leader. Now ill, he might have taught voters the central importance of the Senate election in national affairs.

To govern, Biden will inevitably have to follow the rules of the presidency laid down by one of his predecessors – Donald Trump.  He must push executive power as far as he can to work around Congress.

He can restore America’s place in the world, although the absence of foreign policy in the campaign showed that voters hardly cared. If there is any aspects of the U.S. world role people care about, it is that this country should not pay other nations’ bills or buy their cheap products.

He can stop using the presidency to give aid and comfort to racists in return for their votes. In the end, it can prove better to be politically correct – avoiding giving offense to others – than to be politically expedient – using hatred to win elections.

Executive orders, the substitute for lawmaking by Congress, will flow like a great river just as they did under Trump.  Biden will reverse its direction, the feat of political engineering for which he was elected.  The environment, civil rights, immigration could all be affected.

The branches of government in open warfare with one another, the excessive use of executive power and turning neutral courts into partisan legislatures are not trivial political issues, easily compromised. Central to the American political system, they demand attention now.

A lot more is stake than who sits in the White House for the next four years.