There are too many Democrats

 

 Gordon L. Weil

There are too many Democrats.

That’s what the Trump impeachment trial is really about.  Republican ongoing efforts to suppress Democratic voting all across the country reflect the same political belief.

Fair elections with millions of new voters caused Trump’s defeat. That led to frustration, and frustration led to violence.  For some rioters on January 6, if their candidate could not win the vote count, they could use force to keep him in office.

Looking at American “modern” political history, measured since 1920 when women first voted in federal elections, the Democrats have won an overwhelming majority of the elections for both the U.S. House and Senate. 

Democratic dominance, beginning with Franklin D. Roosevelt’s 1932 win, lasted until the 1994 congressional elections.  That’s when the GOP defined itself as a unified, strongly conservative party, with strong appeal to southern, white voters on issues like race, guns and abortion.

Among presidents, the time in office has been about equal between the parties. But the election of Barack Obama, an African-American, caused the greatest concern to the GOP.  For some conservative politicians, his election motivated their drive to suppress the Democratic vote.

Recently, greater participation by women and Blacks has threatened GOP power. The Democrats now control  both the presidency and the Congress.

Donald Trump simply could not believe that millions more people voted for Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden than for him. In his thinking, Biden’s historic popular vote must have been the result of fraud, justifying the Capitol protest.

His impeachment and trial result from his frustration and resistance to the political reality that a changing electorate boosted the Democratic vote for president.  His mishandling of the Covid crisis undoubtedly also contributed to Biden’s support.

The GOP set out in many states to make access to the ballot box more difficult for Black and poor voters.  They erected new hurdles to voter registration, reduced the times and places for voting, and drew congressional districts to segregate Black voters and reduce the number of House seats they could influence.

The Democrats went to court to stop these moves.  But an increasingly conservative judiciary rendered decisions allowing many steps taken by Republican legislatures.  The U.S. Supreme Court even canceled part of the Voting Rights Act that authorized the federal government to block state efforts denying voting to Blacks.

Three factors worked against the GOP’s efforts to cut Democratic voting. 

Mail-in voting had been growing as part of a nonpartisan effort to increase participation, and it greatly expanded as voters became worried about exposure to Covid-19.  Election authorities under both parties paid extra attention to prevent abuse.  Millions more voted.

Under former Attorney-General Eric Holder and Stacey Abrams of Georgia, the Democrats worked to get their voters to the polls even if it meant jumping GOP-imposed hurdles. While fighting suppression in court, they also got out the vote.  Their efforts were successful, especially in bringing Black voters into the process.

Finally, the voting age population increased.  As the average age continues increasing, so does the number of older voters.  While a majority of seniors formerly voted Republican, in 2020, most went for Biden.  Thus, there were more older voters and more of them voted Democratic.

The U.S. is a democracy. The people elect their government leaders, making the country a republic.  Stealing an election by making false fraud claims or suppressing voting can undermine this democratic republic.  State GOP organizations have vowed to try again.  But the three changes counteract these efforts.

Aside from the Trump trial, what else can be done?

Congress could restore the Voting Rights Act, once again requiring federal approval of new election laws in places where discrimination has occurred.  The GOP might argue that Obama’s and Biden’s elections make the Act unnecessary, but that would ignore congressional voting and the massive efforts needed to overcome suppression.

The Democrats need to keep up those efforts if they want to hold onto their gains.  And they can support efforts by officials of either party to run clean elections, as happened in 2020.

Republicans control more state legislatures than do the Democrats, and they will draw congressional district lines for the next ten years.  The Democrats need to be similarly aggressive in the states they control.  Maine districts could be made more compact, making the Second, carried by Trump, more favorable to the Democrats.

A lot of the 2020 problems could be eliminated by the National Popular Vote. Several more states need to adopt the proposed compact before it can replace electoral voting, which gives a voter more influence in Wyoming than in Maine.  Maine could again consider joining the compact.

However Trump finishes his political career, he has warned the country that American democracy faces continued challenge and a perilous future. 

Note to readers:  This weekly column also appears a day earlier on Substack.com free of charge.  Please subscribe to it on that site.

 

If Senate doesn’t convict Trump, imperial presidency grows

 

Gordon L. Weil

Donald Trump faces possible conviction by the U.S. Senate for provoking insurrection by sending a marauding crowd to the Capitol.

Impeached once previously, he was tried and acquitted by the Senate, allowing him to remain in office.  But the voters ended his presidency, the delayed version of  conviction.

Impeachment proceedings are like criminal trials. A person is charged, indicted by House impeachment, tried by the U.S. Senate in the “guilt phase” and, if convicted by two-thirds of the senators, removed from office.  Though Trump is no longer in office, this second trial is like the “penalty phase” of a criminal trial. 

He cannot be removed from the White House, but the Senate may convict him and then ban him from again holding federal office.  It has already decided that it can try Trump even though he is no longer president.

Trump was first impeached for his attempt to induce the Ukraine president to help him discredit Joe Biden, the Democrat he would face in the election.  In an almost perfectly partisan Senate vote, the Republican majority acquitted him.

That impeachment missed some other possible charges. He had separated children from their parents seeking asylum in the U.S.  He used the presidency for personal profit.  He actively undermined federal government action in dealing with Covid-19, the country’s worst public health crisis.

American voters were free to take these matters into account.  They rendered their verdict, denying him a second term. 

That should have settled Trump’s fate.  But he refused to accept the election results and challenged them however and wherever he could, growing more extreme after each failure to overturn the election.

He argued that logic showed the election was stolen.  Biden received more votes than seemed reasonable. Mailed-in ballots, rigged voting machines, and partisan counts were all proposed as causes.  Though he had strong backing from many GOP voters, his complaints lacked evidence.

The courts rejected his complaints.  State officials, their integrity challenged, refused to nullify verified results.  The Attorney-General found no major fraud. Blatant misreading of the Constitution was rejected, even by Vice President Pence.  Trump came close to using the Justice Department, a government agency, to push his personal cause.

Finally, there was force. The president would send a militant crowd to the Capitol with the clear intent to intimidate Pence and the Congress so they would overturn the official election results.  Some Trump supporters could readily understand his fiery words as an order to use physical force to change the vote.  They occupied the Capitol, a form of insurrection.

Having spurned honest election results and pushed extra-constitutional moves to remain in office, Trump was impeached a second time.  He could not be removed, but the penalty phase could result in the Senate barring him from holding federal office again.

Before Trump, three presidents had become engaged in the impeachment process. 

Andrew Johnson was charged with violating a clearly unconstitutional law and was acquitted thanks to the votes of Republican senators, members of the opposing party.  Later, he would be elected a Democratic U.S. senator from Tennessee.

Bill Clinton was charged with actions having nothing to do with his presidency and was acquitted.  His popularity increased, and he completed two terms.

Richard Nixon was charged with covering-up his campaign’s illegal actions to subvert the 1972 election.  A House committee voted impeachment articles.  When told he would surely be convicted by the Senate, he resigned.  In effect, he was convicted. He never again held public office, and his reputation remains highly negative.

Impeachment and conviction of presidents is a partisan matter.  Only once has a senator of the president’s own party voted against him, when Mitt Romney voted to convict Trump in his first trial. Given the serious charges against Nixon, many GOP senators were ready to convict him.

The question now before the Senate is whether Trump’s extreme attempts to wipe out millions of votes merit conviction.  It would take at least 17 Republicans to join the Democrats to convict. 

If the Senate does not convict him and strip him of the possibility of running again, he may choose not to run or the people might have another chance to be his judges.

Some Republican senators may believe that support from Trump’s voters is essential to their own ambitions and refuse to vote against him.  The central question will be whether GOP senators will put condemning Trump’s role in the insurrection above their party and careers.  How many will show their independence this time?

If partisan interest prevails, he will be acquitted. The precedent will be clear. There would be no action, beyond outright bribery or treason, that could produce conviction after impeachment of a president. The Senate would write another page in the textbook for the emerging imperial presidency.

 

 

 

Biden seeks unity, but faces divided Republicans

 

Gordon L. Weil

The president-elect had planned to take a public, victory train trip into Washington for his inauguration.  Instead, his protectors had him travel securely and unseen.

Sound like Joe Biden this week?  It was, but it was exactly the same scenario for Abraham Lincoln in 1861.

The parallel goes even further. Both times, massive military protection guarded the new president’s inauguration.  Both times, the president took office in the wake of civil strife – the Capitol insurrection in 2021 and the secession of South Carolina and six other states 160 years earlier.

Both presidents assumed leadership of a country badly divided.  About half of the Republicans believe Democrat Biden had stolen his election from Donald Trump.  Even before Lincoln, the first Republican president and an opponent of slavery, took office, four more states moved toward secession from the U.S.

Biden followed Trump and Lincoln succeeded James Buchanan.  Both Trump and Buchanan were divisive one-termers who may end up with history’s lowest presidential ratings.

Both new presidents sought national unity. In his First Inaugural Address, Lincoln stressed that he did not seek to end slavery in states where it existed.  He would later agree to a proposed constitutional amendment to guarantee slavery’s survival.  He drew the line only against a state quitting the Union.

Lincoln’s attempt to appease the states that would form the Confederacy failed. Both sides knew that ultimately the addition of more free states would bring the end of slavery. Even if that were far in the future, it was unacceptable to the rebels.

Despite his attempts to reassure the southern states, he failed to prevent secession and the Civil War. In his Second Inaugural Address, Lincoln recalled his failed efforts, ruefully concluding, “and the war came.” Lincoln’s attempt at appeasement is a lesson for Biden.

Biden can also learn from more recent experience.  Obama made one-sided concessions to the Republicans. Instead of naming a strong liberal, he nominated moderate Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court. The GOP would not even give him a hearing.  Similarly, Bill Clinton made concessions, but could not avoid impeachment.

With only a slim Democratic majority in Congress and some Republicans seeming to regret the insurrection inspired by Trump, this year may provide the proper conditions for compromise.  While deals with the GOP might not fulfill the Democrats’ agenda, they could provide the basis for restoring unity.

Biden has said in his Inaugural Address that he will try for unity and to work with the GOP.  But it’s not really up to him. Will Republicans in Congress recover their traditional responsible conservatism and negotiate deals or will they remain dominated by Trumpers for whom politics is combat?

In the first vote of the new Congress, ten GOP senators opposed the first Biden nomination. These are the hardcore Trumpers, for whom unity is not only impossible but unwanted.

Unity would only come if both sides were willing to adopt policies in which their disparate views are taken into account.  The Democrats control the national government, so they have a right to set the agenda.  If there are Republicans willing to negotiate in good faith, the result would blend some of their concerns into the new laws.

First-term presidents are often considered to have the greatest power during their first year in office. Their mandate is fresh and they may enjoy their greatest congressional support. With that in mind and seeking to reverse many Trump policies, Biden plans to move forcefully and quickly. If the GOP is willing to work with him, it should react immediately.

But some Republicans insist that Trump’s impeachment trial harms hopes for unity. They ignore the fact that continued GOP backing of Trump’s unproven claim that the election was stolen has made unity impossible. The passionate denial of Biden’s win undermines efforts for compromise.

If the GOP is ready to move away from the take-it-or-leave-it politics of the Trumpers, Biden could risk disappointing the most liberal Democrats and try to achieve his objectives by accepting some limits favored by Republicans.

As the oldest president, he well knows the value of using the time you have, not waiting.  That works against appeasement, which would likely be seen as a sign of weakness.  But it could allow legislative deals on health care, the environment and the economy.  Of course, strong action on Covid-19 is essential. 

With more congressional experience than any president in 40 years, Biden appears to understand that the best way to get the other side to negotiate is by the aggressive pursuit of his program. That could gain the attention of Republicans better than would appeasement.

When he could not get what he wanted from Congress or simply wanted to assert his power, Trump often took action on his own.  He stretched the use of executive orders beyond traditional limits, often taking advantage of the loopholes left in laws by a Congress more focused on fundraising than lawmaking. 

Biden will now use the precedent set by Trump to undo Trump.  If Congress wants to reassert its lawmaking powers, it needs to get its act together. 

That requires cooperation between practical Democrats and reformed Republicans. It may not be unity, but it’s the essential first step.

Note to readers.  This column is also available by email to you through the link below. You may subscribe for free.

https://gordonlweil.substack.com/embed

 

 

Will Republicans let Trumpism survive Trump?

 

Gordon L. Weil

During the January 6 insurrection at the Capitol, an invader lowered the American flag and hauled up a Trump banner.  That action embodied the crisis of American politics. 

Three major political forces now exist: the Trumpers, the Republicans and the Democrats.  They are now openly engaged in a conflict for control of the country.  Though Trumpers proclaim it is like 1776, it is more like the Civil War.

Since the end of the post-Civil War military occupation of the South, Republicans and Democrats have shared power, with each party in control from time to time. Each party accommodated the other to a degree, knowing that one day it would be in the minority.  Both parties shared strong allegiance to the U.S.

The surprise rise of Donald Trump changed that system. His personal ambition, detachment from political tradition, and lack of partisan allegiance made him a conduit for radical populists and racists whom he could arouse by his rhetoric and who could become his reliable base.

The Trumpers were committed and numerous enough to take over the Republican Party. Traditional Republicans remained loyal to their party and feared losing power, if they did not align with Trump.  GOP office holders wanted to avoid primary challenges.

Trumpers, newly in charge of the GOP, labeled long-standing party members, like Sen. Susan Collins, as Republicans in Name Only, RINOs.  In fact, the Trumpers themselves could be considered RINOs.  

Traditional Republicans could ignore Trump’s excesses because he pursued policies consistent with some of their most cherished goals: smaller government, conservative judges, lower taxes, less regulation, and reduced focus on public welfare and on “political correctness.” They relished making unlimited war on Democrats.

The Republicans like the Democrats believed that the Constitution and the American political system provided protection against extremists gaining control.  Conservatives could use Trump and Trump could use them with positive results on policy and little risk of long-term harm.

Trump was worried that he would lose the 2020 election and started a backfire of fraud claims even before the voting.  As a television personality, he saw his crowds, his audience, as proof of his unassailable popularity.  He could not lose a “fair” election.

Forewarned, election administrators took strong steps to prevent fraud, and they succeeded. Trump, having continually pushed against customary political norms, persisted in claiming fraud, though he lacked evidence beyond the size of his crowds and what was to him the impossible magnitude of Biden’s vote.

The Trumpers, who owed their control of the GOP to Trump, remained loyal to him, even in preference to their country and its traditions.  They would not be satisfied until he was awarded a second term.  Many Republican House members and a few senators encouraged them, believing the Trumpers were a political force that could support their own ambitions.

At that point, the Republicans paid attention to what the Trumpers were doing to their party and the country.  Most would not overrule a fair election to back Trump or cede power to his loyalists.

Encouraged by Trump’s marching orders and some militant cultists, thousands of Trumpers seized the Capitol to wrest control from the elected Congress.  Only the belated use of law enforcement ended the rebellion that day, but not for good.

Thanks to Congress and public opinion, Trump’s regime ends in dishonor, and he should begin to fade away. Will Trumpism survive Trump?  Will Trumpers maintain their control of the GOP? 

If they do, the party itself will be RINO.  True Republicans will have either to try to retake control or form a new party that can attract some independent and Democratic support. A renewed and responsible Republicanism is essential for the good of the American political system.

The Democratic Party does not have the same problems. Unlike the GOP, which has become increasingly disciplined, the Democrats have long tolerated a wide range of opinion. It is a party in which a moderate conservative senator from West Virginia and a strong liberal senator from Massachusetts can both comfortably consider themselves Democrats.

The U.S. is essentially a conservative country.  President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal deployed liberal solutions and increased government’s role.  President-elect Joe Biden seems both to recognize the value of Roosevelt-style progress and America’s preference for moderate change.  The Democrats continue their traditional balancing act.

Faced not with “socialism” or a quasi-mythical enemy called “antifa,” the Republicans can serve the country and themselves by reestablishing a responsible counterbalance to the Democrats. It’s time for them to show demagogues the door.

Some Republicans try to stem the reaction to the Capitol invasion by charging that the Democrats undermine hopes for unity.  Given the GOP’s history, including its Insurrection Day its House leaders’ opposition to certifying Biden’s election, that won’t work.

The two traditional parties should renew their agreement on the rules of a functioning democracy and faithfully abide by them.  Unlike Trump, they should not bend or break those rules to serve their momentary political advantage. 

If they remain in total conflict, the traditional parties invite unrest and insurrection by those for whom there are no rules.