Democracy in reverse: voter suppression rolls on

Gordon L. Weil

Once upon a time, giant airplanes landed on an isolated and poor Pacific island, bringing wondrous gifts, yielding the Cargo Cult.

Suddenly, during World War II, the American military arrived. A landing field was quickly laid out and aircraft flew in clothing and food the islanders had never seen.  The cargo was military, but the islanders were also rewarded.  The gifts transformed their lives, but only temporarily.  As suddenly they had arrived, the Americans left.

·         The islanders believed that their visitors from the sky might return with more gifts.  To encourage their return, the islanders built a runway, stationed a man in a hut beside it to guide the incoming flights, gave him a wooden headset that looked like the real thing and deployed a bamboo antenna.

Though the islanders wanted to believe that the cargo had been a celestial gift, there was no evidence of heavenly benevolence. With the end of the Pacific war, no plane ever came.  The hopeful Cargo Cult survived, but its hopes were always disappointed. 

In 2020, some Trump supporters claimed the election was rigged and their candidate had really won.  But they had no evidence, only their own optimistic belief.   Just like the islanders, even without evidence to support their belief, the Trump people persisted and became a cult.

But the true believers are not on a remote island, keeping their cult in isolation.  They live in the heart of the American political system and their beliefs drive them to seek to influence that system. 

Part of the reason for the survival of their belief in the stolen election is momentum.  You can start from believing that Trump is so great that logically he simply could not have lost.  Whether the ritual chant is “Build the Wall” or “Stop the Steal,” it keeps the momentum going.

But a cult’s belief in Donald Trump as a political savior only partly explains the stolen election movement and concerns about balloting.  The underlying driver is the Republican Party that can use the cult as cover for its own long-term efforts to skew elections.

The GOP operates on the strategy that reducing the size of the electorate brings it victory.  Fewer people say they are Republicans than those who are Democrats.  The Republicans are thought to be more likely to make the effort to vote, so the GOP priority can become voter suppression of typical Democratic backers rather than their own get-out-the-vote success.

In 2020, the strategy failed and, while Trump did well, Biden did better, getting more votes than any previous presidential candidate.  The Trump campaign with the help of many GOP leaders claimed in key states that voting results had been falsified.  But they could find no evidence.

The most classic failure occurred in Georgia, where a Republican secretary of state supervises elections. Though a Trump voter, he found no evidence that Trump had defeated Biden.  He resisted direct pressure from Trump to change the outcome.

The GOP has found ways to boost its chances.  Where it controls a state legislature, it lays out congressional districts to favor Republicans.  In 2020, Ohio gave Democrat Biden 45 percent of the vote but Democrats won only four of 16 districts.  This year, the Democrats have a clear path to only two seats.

African-Americans and other minorities are targeted.  Easier access to voting and reasonable registration requirements have brought out more minority voters.  When access is made more difficult, their participation is expected to suffer.

The GOP tries to limit mail-in voting, a way to make access easier that aids Democratic voters.  By making it more difficult, Republicans seem to believe that their backers will go to the polls while Democrats won’t make the effort.

Another move by Republican state legislatures is to enact laws giving their party members complete control over election administration.  Georgia has given its secretary of state such powers. 

The risk is that such officials will use their expanded powers to disallow and prevent Democratic voters from casting ballots or being counted.  Still, some GOP candidates are already claiming that if they lose, the election may have been fixed. 

They may justify distorting the election system, in the belief, with little or no evidence, that the other side has also done it.  That’s called “whataboutism.”

This year, the conduct of elections could again end up in court.  This time it would be Democrats not Republicans bringing the complaints.  What would happen if courts overturned House elections is not known.  It is obvious, though, that faith in elections, already battered by the 2020 Trump campaign and candidate, would suffer.

The leading issues in the upcoming elections may be inflation and abortion.  But perhaps the most important issue won’t appear on any ballot or be obvious to many voters – voting in our democracy.

Is the sticker that reads “I voted” in danger of becoming a rare collectible?

  

Who defines your rights? Congress, courts or states?

Gordon L. Weil

Maine Sen. Susan Collins is a leading Republican sponsor of a U.S. Senate bill to ensure a federal right to same-sex marriage.

Sen. Lindsay Graham, a South Carolina Republican, proposes a bill to impose a national limit on abortion rights.  His move would limit a right as opposed to Collins’ effort to protect a right.

There’s more to both proposals than meets the eye.  They are part of a major conflict over what individual rights are protected under the U.S. Constitution.

Justice Clarence Thomas launched the conflict when the Supreme Court overruled Roe v. Wade, ending federal protection of abortion rights.  He served notice that the abortion decision could lead to the Court reversing other decisions on rights and leaving such decisions to Congress or the states.   The Collins and Graham bills respond to the threat he raised.

The Bill of Rights includes individual rights that cannot be overridden by government.  People also have other rights beyond these few.  Who decides what rights receive federal protection?

The issue boils down to the meaning of the Fourteenth Amendment of the Constitution, which says that states cannot “deprive any person of life, liberty or property, without due process of law.”  The Court has used it to protect a wide range of rights.  Abortion was considered a constitutionally protected right until Roe was overruled.

Does “due process” only give the Court the authority to ensure a fair procedure exists to protect rights or does it tell the Court also to define the rights receiving such protection?

The Court has used due process to find rights to safe workplace conditions, contraception, homosexuality and interracial marriage.  Thomas and Justice Samuel Alito, author of the Roe reversal decision, say that legislatures not courts should decide on rights, because due process is only about procedure.  

The Roe reversal moves toward deciding that, if Congress has not acted and due process is only procedural, then the determination of rights belongs to the states. 

Same-sex marriage has been found by the Court to be a right protected under the Fourteenth Amendment, just as abortion was.  What worries Collins and her co-sponsors is the possible reversal of that right by the Court, just as abortion was.

Taking the warning from Alito and Thomas seriously, they want Congress to pass a law saying that same-sex marriage is protected.  Then, the Court could keep its hands off.

The House of Representatives, under the Democrats, will go along with the proposal. The Senate needs 60 votes to end debate before a final vote.  With 50 senators affiliated with the Democrats, Collins needs nine more Republicans. It will take more time to line them all up, so the vote won’t be held until after the November elections.

Why can’t Collins find nine Republicans?  Some may not want to take a stand either way while they are up for re-election.  After the elections but before the new Congress is seated, they can then vote on the bill. She says, “This bill is going to pass.”  That remains to be seen.

Whatever passes is almost sure to offer less protection than the Court decision.  To pick up the remaining GOP votes, the sponsors will have to accept some legislated limits on same-sex marriage.  In effect, the right could turn out to be safer, but less broad.  The law would replace the Court decision.

Similarly, Graham’s bill would limit abortion rights.  The Court allowed the states to set their own rules, which could range from prohibition to a broad right, but Graham would take that kind of discretion away.  While prohibition would remain possible, states could do no more than his restrictive bill, which would set a 15-week time limit on abortions.

He knows his bill won’t pass unless the Republicans control both houses and the presidency, not possible until 2025 at the earliest.  So his ploy now is meant simply to influence who gets elected to the Senate in November.

If Graham’s move succeeds, the process of rolling back federal protection of individual rights could take off.  The Supreme Court seems primed, already having nullified a key part of the 1965 Voting Rights Act that assured African-Americans’ access to the polls.  Congress might have to step up to its responsibilities if the Supreme Court is bent on eliminating protected rights.

The gap between the will of the people and their government in Washington deepens.  Rights that have gained federal protection over the years have gained public support and wide acceptance.  The Alito-Thomas position would place the increasingly powerful Court, cool to rights, and the dangerously divided Congress in opposition to popular sentiment.

The Court and Congress seem not to get the message.  The same-sex marriage bill, sponsored by Collins, may serve as a limited and imperfect test of whether government will start listening to the people. 

Trump named judge; he gets special breaks

 

Note to readers:  This column also available on Substack with links.

Gordon L. Weil

Donald Trump has a friend at court. He appointed her.

U.S. District Court Judge Aileen Cannon favors the former president in the Department of Justice case about the presidential documents found in an FBI search at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida resort residence.

Former U.S. Attorney General William Barr, also a Trump appointee, has noted that it is “unprecedented for a president to take all this classified information and put it in a country club.” If so, why does the judge help Trump?

Chief Justice John Roberts has tried to assure Americans that while presidents appoint judges who share their political philosophy, the jurists are independent and non-partisan. “We do not have Obama judges or Trump judges,” he said, rebutting a comment by Trump who saw things differently.

Trump was right; Roberts’ claim simply won’t wash. The 2000 Supreme Court vote by 5-4 to make Republican George W. Bush the president over Democrat Al Gore left a lot of people believing the Court made a political, not a legal, decision. There was no judicial philosophy involved.

In this case, the judge gives Trump the breaks he seeks to derail or delay the investigation of his having kept documents, many of them secret, at his unsecured offices.

Right now, Trump faces no charges in the case. Trump, not the DOJ, gives the search big publicity. Federal agencies are conducting an investigation and have not yet determined what action, if any, should be taken, beyond recovering government documents and determining any harm to national security. But the judge now protects him in several ways.

Court nominees say they will not let their personal views influence their consideration of cases. They will “follow the law.” Just what law will a judge follow? There’s so much judge-made law available, they can choose what they will follow and ignore other applicable rulings.

To begin with, another judge in the same district court has been dealing with the FBI recovery of the presidential documents removed from Mar-a-Lago. But, when Trump made an added filing, she grabbed control of it instead of turning it over to the original judge.

Legal questions about a former president’s right to control documents are supposed to be determined by the D.C. federal district court, as Cannon acknowledged but ignored. Sharing his distrust of the FBI, she accepted Trump’s demand for a special master to screen the documents before the investigation continued.

Trump kept presidential papers, claiming they are his and frustrating Justice Department efforts to recover them. There’s a law clearly stating that most of them are government property. Cannon could have ruled that at least certain documents, especially those that had been classified, could not possibly be Trump’s property. She didn’t.

Judges can range even more widely. Under certain circumstances, a judge alone, without a jury, decides what needs to be done to put matters right and may decide differently from a narrower legal ruling. That’s called “equity.” And who decides the rules of equity? Judges, usually.

She has chosen to decide on the basis of equity, because Trump’s reputation would suffer if federal prosecutors had him indicted on the basis of documents that turned out not to be acceptable evidence. She uses a non-binding opinion of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, also a Trump appointee, to support her position.

She focuses on the embarrassment that a person suffers when wrongly indicted and finds that the damage would be much worse for a former president. In his filings, Trump claims he is the front-runner for the GOP nomination and the general election in 2024. He sees the case as an attempt to undermine his chances.

But the right to challenge evidence backing up an indictment comes only after the indictment, not before it. Trump has not been indicted. Because he’s a former president, he is receiving protection not available to average citizens.

These factors matter in this case, because they permeate Cannon’s decisions. In simple terms, the judge accords Trump special treatment in her court. And says so.

For the time being, Cannon has blocked the investigation. That’s just what Trump wants. His lawyers say it would take the special master three months to complete their review. That would delay the investigation and any resolution of the case beyond the mid-term elections, thus reducing their effect on Trump’s attempt to influence congressional races.

Unless the law gives a former president special rights, they enjoy no better treatment than the average citizen, which is just what they are. In this case, a judge he appointed is making unusual decisions giving Trump favorable treatment.

Perhaps we should have confidence that the process will ultimately yield the just result. But the judge’s bias appears to add to the already declining respect for the courts. This cannot be healthy for the American system of government.

Biden, ‘Trump Republicans’ clash on meaning of ‘democracy’

Gordon L. Weil

There’s been a big misunderstanding.  Or worse.

The debate over the meaning of one word may really be about the future of our government. That word is “democracy.”

President Biden recently gave a speech on the subject, though some complained that it was as much about Democrats as democracy.  He asserted that Americans all agree on historic democracy in this country.

Biden attacked those he called “Trump Republicans,” supposedly to distinguish them from mainstream or traditional Republicans, for attempting to replace American democracy with authoritarianism.  His opponents charge that he and the Democrats want to replace democracy with socialism.

Here’s the misunderstanding.  The two sides are using at least two different meanings of the word “democracy.”  This difference is not simply a matter of one word.  It represents the nation’s deep divide.

The U.S. is a democratic republic, a country where the people exercise majority rule through their freely elected representatives.  That contrasts with direct democracy, like the Maine town meeting, where the people themselves make decisions.  Or with authoritarian rule by one person and their supporters.

Making voting as widely accessible as possible might be considered to be democratic while keeping control to a small group or even one person would be more authoritarian.

Biden correctly pointed out that there are now efforts, mostly by Republicans, to limit democracy – popular control – in the American system.  They may believe that, if some people can be kept from voting, the reduced number of voters will make it easier for the GOP to win elections.  Anti-democratic efforts take several forms. 

First, if registering to vote or actually voting is made more difficult by limiting times and locations and by imposing complex identification requirements, some people may not even make the effort to participate.  Historically, this approach has been used to reduce voting by African-Americans.

Second, if you can devise ways of counting votes that enable partisans running elections to discard ballots from certain voters, that boosts the value of the remaining votes. That’s what worries people this year in Wisconsin and Arizona.

Third, you can organize voting districts to pack almost all your opponents in the fewest districts, allowing you to pick up more seats. Republicans are much better at it than Democrats. That’s gerrymandering and it’s being used this year in Ohio. 

Fourth, you can undermine confidence in elections by claiming that unless you win, you were cheated by your opponents. That’s what Trump and his advocates did after the 2020 elections despite there being a lack of proof.

Democracy is a process, not a policy.  The core Constitution, even before the Bill of Rights and other amendments, is essentially a procedural plan and contains little that would qualify as governmental policy. Voting is the essential element of democracy.

While Biden appropriately supported voting and opposed political violence, he also touted Democratic policies that have been adopted during his administration.  His speech implied that, if Americans adhere to democracy, they will be rewarded with Democratic policies. That’s where he went off track.

Democracy is a set of procedures to ensure popular control, but it does not guarantee results.  Candidates you support will lose elections and their defeat cannot simply be blamed on cheating.

Allowing for a decent respect for the minority, the majority must rule, whatever it decides and whoever it elects. Winston Churchill, a British prime minister, is supposed to have said: “Democracy is the worst form of government except all the others.”

The misunderstanding arises when results are confused with the process itself.  Democracy can legitimately produce demands for more government action.  Better environmental protection, public safety, and health care are not “socialism,” an economic system in which government itself produces and provides products or services.

For extreme conservatives, when government assumes new responsibilities, it limits the scope of action by individuals. If people agree to cede some of their individual liberty to a common effort called government, that does not constitute replacing democracy with socialism.  Of course, the people must always retain the power to change their minds later.

Biden asserts that all Americans share a commitment to democracy. Is he right? Much depends on how you define democracy or even if you think it has run its course and is no longer useful.

Some on the extreme right fear they will be “replaced” by the coming change in the make-up of the American electorate, when members of racial minorities become the majority of voters.  That was the message of Charlottesville and likely also of the January 6 insurrection.

Anti-democratic strategies might allow them to cling to power and block change.  So they try to discredit historic democracy by claiming it leads to socialism.  

Facing this challenge, American democracy, beginning with the right to vote, needs to be defended.  Its survival requires more than pious speeches.

  

Bullets, not ballots preferred by growing ranks of unhappy partisans

Gordon L. Weil

Ballots, not bullets. A government of laws, not men.

When politicians talk about the nation’s shared values, that’s part of what they mean – a non-violent, lawful, democratic system of government.

What we really get is something much different. Four presidents assassinated plus 15 threatened. Historic assassinations of Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King. Threats against a Supreme Court justice and his family. And on down to Maine’s former Governor Paul LePage recently threatening to “deck” a Democrat.

A Maine newspaper editorializes: “Threats of violence are unacceptable. We can’t believe we have to keep saying this.”

You do have to keep saying this, because America has a culture of violence, especially political, and it is getting worse.

It began with the American frontier. In the 1800s, the country had more territory than it could govern, leaving justice to individuals on their own, often using guns for self-defense. Violence or its threat could substitute for government.

In 1865, President Abraham Lincoln was the target of an historic political assassination. Under his leadership, the Union had won the Civil War and slavery was soon to be completely outlawed. John Wilkes Booth, an actor, shot Lincoln to dramatically punish him for crushing the Confederacy.

By the end of the Nineteenth Century, the frontier had ended and government, police and courts functioned throughout the country. But violence continued and the pace of attempts on presidents picked up.

Violence or threats have followed the Lincoln pattern of punishing people for their previous actions. It cannot stop them, but it feels good to retaliate and it may intimidate others from taking similar actions.

Recently, cases seem to be piling up.

Representatives Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger voted to impeach President Trump and serve as the only Republicans on the House committee investigating the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. For their independence from blind party loyalty, they became targets for threats.

Cheney spent some of her re-election campaign funds for security. Both receive extra Capitol police protection. She lost her primary. Kinzinger knew he would lose and chose not to run. Violence was both unjustified and unnecessary.

Federal Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart approved the FBI warrant to search Trump’s Florida home for government documents taken from the White House. Florida GOP Senator Marco Rubio falsely inferred that Reinhart was a partisan Democrat. The judge and his family were threatened. His synagogue had to cancel its services because of anti-Semitic threats.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top federal epidemiologist, corrected Trump’s faulty Covid-19 cure claims, and he and his family became targets of a death threat. This month, his would-be killer got a three-year prison sentence.

U.S. Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh voted to overturn the Roe v. Wade abortion decision. He and his family were threatened. Because of the killing of the son of a federal judge and the Kavanaugh threats, Congress quickly approved added protection for Supreme Court justices and their families.

Most threats and half-baked attacks appear to come from Trump supporters, people who believe in him and the myth that his re-election was stolen. But, as in the Kavanaugh case, menace could come from the other side as well.

While there is probably no single or simple explanation for the increase in serious threats, they seem to reflect the divisive and unsettled state of the country. Since the Vietnam War in the 1960s and 1970s, many people have come to feel that government does not act for them. They are increasingly frustrated and want change.

The elections of both Obama and Trump revealed strong sentiment in favor of change, almost simply for its own sake. When those elections disappointed such hopes, some became more disaffected. The right wing has grown and increasingly favors a more authoritarian approach that rejects compromise.

Trump and LePage tapped into that sentiment to promote their own political ambitions. The result was to legitimize the breaking of traditional constraints, sneeringly labeled as political correctness. Trump’s followers have felt fewer limits on taking matters into their own hands.

If the country had seemed to be moving away from racism, anti-Semitism, violence and other extreme actions, that stopped with Trump. His sense of unlimited power was transmitted to his followers. A few thousand insurrectionists took over the Capitol, claiming they represented the American people as they threatened to hang the Vice President.

Though perhaps questionable, some polls show that a portion of the population believes political violence is acceptable. Not long ago, even conducting such a poll would have been unimaginable.

The political debate cannot get much lower than a resort to violence. The frontier, long gone, cannot be allowed to linger on. The lawless legacy of the once-ungoverned American West gets in the way of the real choice.

How do the people want the country to be governed?

Why did Trust keep official documents?

Gordon L. Weil

I am biased.  You are biased.

“Everyone is a little bit biased,” says an article published by the American Bar Association.  “A little bit” may understate matters. A recent incident shows how deeply bias can run.

A Little League pitcher’s fastball beaned a batter, who fell to the ground.  For a few minutes, the situation looked serious. But the batter had worn a helmet, so he recovered and took first base. 

The pitcher stood almost motionless with his head down, obviously regretting the errant pitch. Seeing the pitcher’s distress, the batter walked over and gave him a hug and some words of reassurance.  ESPN broadcast this action and drew many strong reactions.

Now for the bias.  Some observers applauded the hitter’s being a good sport and showing his compassion for another kid’s distress.  Others expressed extreme disdain for the batter not having charged the mound to sock the pitcher.  At least he should have done nothing, leaving the rattled pitcher to blow the game.

Some were biased in favor of a player looking out for the welfare of another player.  Others were biased in favor of winning at any cost, which left no room for compassion even in a kid’s ball game.  The fervor revealed something about what divides the country.

Move from that scene to the FBI seizure of government documents in the possession of former President Donald Trump.  

By law, official papers in Trump’s possession should have been in the National Archives but were still held by an ex-president who is now an ordinary citizen. Trump could have thought that his false claim of having won the 2020 election was aided by his holding onto documents only a president should have. 

Some Trump supporters believe that the FBI action was part of an organized plot to harass Trump as he moved toward announcing a 2024 run for the presidency.  They see him charged with technical legal violations by people who disagree with his bold political moves.  That leads them to be biased in his favor.

Others believe that Trump is an arrogant person who saw the presidency as his personal property, giving him the right to do whatever he wanted.  He never had unchecked powers and, as a private citizen, had lost whatever powers he once had.  His opponents are ready to cry, “Lock him up,” showing their bias against him.

This clash of biases is fueled by much of the media that is in business to make money.  Each bias has its own media allies who keep throwing more fuel on the fire as a way of attracting more viewers or readers.

The free expression of these biases is made possible by a virtually unique American law – the First Amendment to the Constitution.  It rules that the government cannot stop a person from saying or writing almost anything.  It’s part of a political system unlike almost any other in the world. 

How can a country function if it is so deeply divided on matters ranging from the powers of the ex-president to kids’ behavior in a baseball playoff game?

The answer is “checks and balances.”  We have been taught that decisions made by the federal government are subject to a complicated system of checks and balances designed to prevent any part of the government from having absolute control.  That’s how democracy works.  It is slow and inefficient, but can keep us safe from rule by a single person.

Checks and balances are really how almost everything works.  While one side wants the Trump investigation halted because it is a “witch hunt,” the other side has already decided the former president has no excuse for breaking the letter of the law.  No checks need be applied.

Here’s what we know free from bias.  Presidents are supposed to turn their government documents over to the National Archives. When Trump left office, some presidential documents went to his Florida home.  He later returned some, but not all, of them even after receiving a subpoena.  The FBI then took more government papers from his home. 

Trump says there was no wrongdoing.  Decisions to be made by the Justice Department, a grand jury, a trial jury, and many appeals judges may be needed to decide if laws were broken and punishment is merited. This time-consuming process is how we protect both individuals charged and the national interest.

Stopping the process anywhere along the way because it is not producing the outcome one wants would reflect bias.  The system is designed to wash out bias as much as humanly possible.

Either the American system will work in its intentionally inefficient way to yield a decision or the built-in bias of one side or the other will ultimately weaken a system on which our country depends. 

'What's the matter with Kansas?' Women's political power grows

 

Gordon L. Weil

“What’s the matter with Kansas?”

After that state’s vote to retain the state constitution’s protection of abortion, many might answer that “nothing’s the matter with Kansas.”

Unless that vote was a fluke, what happened in Kansas has sent a signal about the future of American politics.

The Kansas question was first asked by William Allen White in a classic 1896 editorial.  He criticized the state’s populism and jabbed at men who talked about big public spending, while leaving their wives struggling to find enough money for household expenses.

In 2004, Thomas Frank, a native Kansan, authored a book with the question as its title. He argued that the Republicans who controlled the state had adopted policies harming the average people who loyally elected them.  White’s conservatism had won the day.

Kansas is often considered a “solid red” state, thoroughly conservative and Republican.  Seen that way, the abortion vote was a historic break from what had become the deeply ingrained character of the state.

But that view of Kansas is at least partially wrong and is becoming even more discredited as time passes.  Two things are changing in Kansas that are likely to be occurring all across the country. 

Kansas is becoming more urban, according to the U.S. Census.  We may think of its fields of grain, but services based in cities are gaining. The Democrats are beginning to win in growing Kansas cities and their suburbs, while the Republicans lead in the shrinking rural towns. 

But the pro-choice vote in both the small towns and cities topped the Biden 2020 votes. That may have been caused by the growing power of women in politics. “Solid red” Kansas has a woman serving as governor and in one of its four U.S. House seats.  Both are Democrats. 

After the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, voter registration shot up in Kansas, where a state referendum meant to undermine the abortion right was scheduled.  The Republican legislature calculated that a low turnout, mostly for GOP primaries, would ensure its passage. 

But turnout was high, reflecting a surge in new registrants.  About 70 percent of the newly enrolled voters were women.  While there’s no way of knowing how they voted, it’s likely they were motivated to register and vote by the need to protect abortion after the Roe reversal.

Nationally, the population mix of the electorate is changing. A lot of attention is focused on Latinos and African Americans. Are Latino voters innately conservative and likely to desert the Democrats?  Faced with voter suppression, will African Americans be discouraged from voting?

One day, a majority of the American electorate will be composed of minorities.  But this preview misses the most obvious group, one that is not a minority – women. Their more active political involvement could have far greater impact than the growth in minority power.

More involvement by women is highly likely to benefit the Democrats.  In 2022, almost a third of state legislators are women and two-thirds of them are Democrats. 

Maine may be a prime example of women in politics. It ranks seventh in percentage of women legislators.  It has a history of women participating and three of its U.S. senators have been women – all Republicans. As urbanization grows in southern Maine, the state seems to lean more to the Democrats.

Some pundits seem blind to the change that is happening.  They criticize the Democrats for abandoning unionized, industrial workers in favor of better educated suburban women. They suggest that the GOP is gaining ground when it picks up blue collar Democrats.

That’s their theory and it is somewhat supported by traditionally Democratic states like Pennsylvania and Michigan having become battlegrounds. And then, along comes Kansas.

It would be easy to write off the vote there as being all about abortion. In fact, the Kansas reaction to the Roe reversal may have revealed what Democratic strategists knew.  The country is changing and they are going where the votes are.

The number of college-educated people has been rising sharply and now represents 41 percent of the population.  Women outnumber men among college graduates and their share of the total keeps increasing. 

Among people 25 and older, there are more women who have finished college than men who have finished high school. And there are fewer union members than college educated women.  

In short, the conventional wisdom about Democratic prospects may be unwise and too conventional.  It explains why the GOP clings to power in the Senate, the last place where rural states can block the federal government.  But the Republicans need to watch out for Kansas.

The vote there suggests that something more than the abortion issue was at play.  A combination of more, better educated women and urban growth are the biggest engines of political change.