Guns may become a ‘wedge issue’ cutting both ways

Shootings from Connecticut to Colorado have caused a new national debate about safeguards on gun sales.

The debate has raised the possibility that gun legislation could become a so-called wedge issue, but one that cuts both ways, providing political opportunity to people on both sides.

What’s a wedge issue?  It is a political matter used to cause a deep enough split among members of an opposing party that the party’s ability to win elections is undermined.

If a single issue becomes important enough in the minds of at least some voters that they vote based on that issue alone, they may end supporting a party with which they usually disagree on many other issues.

Often social issues have been used as wedges, usually by Republicans seeking to pry Democratic voters away from their traditional allegiance.  Same sex marriage and abortion are perhaps the best known, but flag burning and prohibition have been used.

Wedge issues can produce great political value.  For example, a Democrat votes for a Republican with whom the voter disagrees on foreign military intervention, because of the candidate’s position on same-sex marriage.

Of course, even if a wedge issue does not produce that kind of a political payoff, it can influence office holders of the opposing party. 

Until now, opposition to virtually any proposal to place limits on the sale of guns has been used successfully as a wedge issue. 

The National Rifle Association has traditionally led this opposition, pouring funds into the political debate to ensure that, in many parts of the country, only candidates favorable to its views and those of gun manufacturers will be able to win elections. 

Many Democrats have worried enough about the effectiveness of NRA opposition to adopt its positions.  When they didn’t, the GOP candidate’s chances improved.

Recent U.S. Senate votes rejecting efforts to increase background checks on potential gun purchasers demonstrates the effectiveness of the NRA efforts.  Democratic senators from states evenly divided by party would not support any gun safeguards.

Some conservative commentators had openly worried that, if the Senate voted for increased background checks, gun laws could become a wedge issue for the Democrats in 2014.  With Senate inaction, their concern melted away.

Wedge issues begin to lose their effect when public opinion changes.  In 2004, a major national poll showed that 62 percent opposed same-sex marriage.  Now, only 42 percent hold that position, and 53 percent favor same-sex marriage.

This change has had its effect on politicians.  Recently, several leading senators have moved from opposition to support.  More states, including Maine, have voted to legalize it.

The Sandy Hook school killings in Newtown, Connecticut, and the movie theater shooting in Aurora, Colorado, seemed to have awakened public concern about the easy availability of guns.  But opponents of regulation believe that such concern will quickly decline, just as it has in the past.  

That may be true, but there is a possibility that, contrary to expectations caused by the Senate’s failure to overcome a filibuster on background checks, gun safeguards could be a wedge issue for Democrats

Polls show that a majority of Americans has almost continuously supported increased gun regulation since 1990.  Republicans and Democrats, gun owners and non-gun owners have been among those favoring stepped-up controls. 

But the NRA has mobilized its supporters no matter their affiliation.  Guns have never been a wedge issue that could peel Republican voters away from their traditional allegiances.

Two factors may be different this year.  First, the series of shootings, in relatively rapid succession over the past year, may keep the issue alive in the minds of many voters.  In other words, enough gun atrocities may have occurred to sustain public concern.

And two new leaders have emerged to face off with the NRA.  Billionaire New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, an independent, has enough money to duel politically with that organization on at least an equal basis.  He seems determined.

Gabrielle Giffords, the former Arizona Democratic member of Congress who was gunned down in Tucson, has also launched an effort to support new regulation.  She, too, seems determined to keep pressing the issue.

Rather than seeking gun control, they have more realistic goals.  They have limited their focus to a relatively modest effort for more and better background checks. 

 
Whether guns can be made a wedge issue for the Democrats, allowing them to attract GOP voters, remains in question.  If Bloomberg and Giffords keep the issue in front of voters, there is a chance for Democrats to benefit from it in the 2014 congressional elections.