Gone is the talk of “open” presidential nominating
conventions or arguments about “open” primaries, which allow independents to
vote in partisan elections.
The parties seem to have made their choices, closing a lot
of open mouths.
What remain “open” are the November election and the temper
of American voters. Because, aside from
the forecasts by overrated and underperforming pundits, the outcome is truly an
“open” question.
Uncertainty results from the surprising takeover of the
Republican nomination process by Donald Trump, one of the most unconventional
candidates in recent America history. He
has exploited public unhappiness with the current political system.
Questions remain to be settled before the election. Will the GOP and Trump make peace or at least
a truce? Will there be a third party,
conservative or moderate, to provide shelter to traditional Republicans? Will the Libertarian Party offer an
alternative? Will some Republicans
support Hillary Clinton?
The Republican Party has problems. Traditional pro-business, anti-government,
strong military Republicans have been losing ground to doctrinaire
conservatives with different interests: no gun control, no same-sex marriage,
few or no abortions and certainly no Affordable Care Act.
Trump seems to represent people who believe the entire
system is failing and even corrupt. To
them, what makes Trump attractive is his never having held elective office. He doesn’t talk like a politician. His appeal is based more on his style than on
where he stands on issues dividing the GOP.
When analysts say that Trump has no chance of winning, they
really are saying there is not a large enough constituency in the general
electorate willing to support an inflammatory and apparently racist
candidate. But could his
anti-establishment aura override concern about his excesses?
The Republican Party, in business since 1856, is part of the
American political establishment.
Already divided, the traditional party runs the risk of
disappearing. Given its divisions,
Trump’s supporters may represent a constituency using its mechanisms not to
make it either traditional or conservative, but revolutionary.
The GOP may have made matters worse by trying to be an
exclusive club. It has worked hard to
reduce voting access for minorities.
That party attitude legitimizes Trump’s views on immigrants.
Before going too far with Trump’s effect, it’s worth
remembering he has won about 11 million votes until now. In 2012, Mitt Romney, the GOP candidate, got
60.9 million votes and the total of the two major parties was 126.8 million.
Whatever his ultimate strength, Trump does reflect the
political unhappiness of a block of voters.
They believe candidates lie to them and that the answers are less
complicated than the politicians say.
They are ready to reject candidates who cannot give them simple answers
to what they see as simple problems.
Voters want to be lied to.
They want candidates who make big promises. No matter the candidate will have to deal with
Congress or that issues are complicated.
But when a candidate becomes president, he or she must be more realistic
than when campaigning. That’s when it
looks like they have been lying.
If the promises are simple and sweeping enough, yet cannot
be kept for practical reasons, voters can finally lose trust not only in
politicians but in government itself. The Trump candidacy, if he holds onto the
nomination, implies there is now a large body of voters who have lost trust in
government.
The book “What’s the Matter with Kansas?” marveled at the
way average voters oppose their own self-interest by supporting GOP policies
favoring the wealthy. Perhaps Trump has
now caught the attention of these voters.
Look at the difference in the electorate between 2000 and
2016. Then, the popular vote for
president was displaced by a court that made the decision by one vote, and the
voters accepted the result without violent protest. Now, the Trump rejectionists are truly angry,
and they are willing to rough up their opponents.
In effect, the country now has four political groups. Liberals and conservatives have long been
with us. Moderates exist, but their
numbers seem to dwindle. Add to that the
rejectionists, Trump supporters who call into question the effectiveness of the
traditional governmental system itself.
If these groups cannot compromise, then what?
This year’s election may force Americans to take stock of
their support for a system of government many have come to believe yields them
nothing while the wealthy and the politicians prosper. That’s what vocal Trump supporters say.
The November election will tell us the identity of the next
president. Perhaps more importantly, it
may tell us who we are.
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