Polls miss major issues, GOP’s big problems

 

Gordon L. Weil

As we come to the final six months of the political campaigns, the polls predict close races. But a number of key questions remain and raise doubts.

Will there be one or more Trump trial verdicts and will he be acquitted or convicted?

Who will Trump pick as his running mate?

Will either Biden or Trump say or do something so outrageous or incompetent as to compromise their candidacy?

Will the health of Biden and Trump hold up under the pressures of the campaign?

Will Supreme Court decisions on abortion laws, student loan forgiveness or other issues influence voters?

Will the Republicans be able to keep up with Democratic fundraising?

Will the GOP successfully suppress voting?

Will swing voters – women, young people, traditional Republicans, Blacks – switch sides or stay home?

Add to the ultimate answers to these questions, the political reality that the Republicans now bear more of a disadvantage than might be expected. As campaigns grow more intense, these critical concerns may affect the GOP’s chances for success.

The first concern is Donald Trump, the once and hopeful president.  The election seems to be about him more than any issue or event.  His unusually faithful support comes from millions who admire his unfettered and outspoken style.  He makes his simple solutions to complex issues easy to grasp, a real advantage in a complicated world.

But just how far his faithful support can carry him remains to be seen.  While his presidency and candidacy have brought him a loyal core, they have also inspired an increasingly organized opposition.  Donald Trump is the biggest unifying force the Democrats have enjoyed in many years.

Trump’s courtroom tests add to his controversial candidacy.  Never before has the leader of a national ticket been embroiled in criminal proceedings during his campaign. This situation causes incalculable risks for the GOP.  Trump might score points arguing that the charges and timing are politically inspired, but they must also hurt.

Right now, it is impossible to gauge the electoral effect of the indictments and trials, but they will certainly influence the elections.  That Trump fears their effect is shown by his efforts to sidetrack them.  The political impact of the proceedings may be as important as the possibility of his being convicted.

One sign that the Republicans are faltering in the Trump trial era is their inability to match the Democrats’ fund-raising efforts. Not only has Trump diverted some funds to his legal defense, but party coffers are relatively short of cash.

This shows up in U.S. Senate campaigns. In Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the Republicans have recruited candidates mostly distinguished by their ability to finance their own campaigns.  Their inexperience may prove politically costly as they run against veteran Democratic incumbents. Their cash is supposed to prove the critical difference.

Trump lauds himself for having appointed Supreme Court justices who buried the court-established federal right to abortion.  While activists ardently support this decision, a popular majority has far less restrictive views, putting the GOP on the defensive.  Even Trump has backpedaled far enough to anger Mike Pence, his formerly faithful vice president.

The abortion issue, central to Republican policy, is a gift that keeps on giving for the Democrats. It could turn the tide of congressional elections, just as it did in 2022.

Perhaps the most powerful Trump-GOP issue has been immigration.  Here, President Biden has been extremely vulnerable.  Facing a backlash even from Democratic states, he accepted GOP positions in order to get a bill enacted. This provided the unusual prospect of a bipartisan immigration bill, meeting key GOP demands, that could have passed.

This Republican victory might have been a big plus in November.  But Trump wanted to deny Biden any credit, even for swallowing his loss, and led the House GOP to torpedo the bill. By this action, he gave Biden a boost, enabling him to argue that the GOP put Trump’s interests above a needed national policy.  They turned victory into defeat.

If these concerns weren’t enough, tack on the embarrassing inability of the House GOP to use its slim majority effectively.  Instead, the extreme right dominates to block compromise. Stunningly, they ousted their own speaker and have rebelled against his successor who promoted a key agreement in cooperation with Democrats.

In many cases, the Republicans are their own worst enemies.  But none of their problems guarantees Democrats’ success.  These issues suggest that polling forecasts are premature, because they ignore these underlying GOP problems for the final stages of the campaign.   They suggest that we really know little about November’s likely results. 

Perhaps the GOP’s problems will matter less than, say, Biden’s age, but that’s a big gamble.  Momentum matters, and the GOP campaign may be at a point where it would suffer without a positive push.