Independent politics are coming
Democrats drop out
Gordon L. Weil
Conventional wisdom tells us that political parties are
fading away.
The Republican Party has morphed into Trump’s personal
property. He is the RINO, but he counts.
The Democrats are divided, as usual, this time between
traditional New Dealers and progressives, including the Social Democrats.
The deep discord between the two parties has turned
compromise into a dirty word and made name calling and falsehood the standard. Core partisans exist on each side, though many
voters supposedly want constructive cooperation to solve practical problems.
The media promotes this picture, helping make it seem true. But that’s not quite right.
Traditional conservative Republicans survive, but they may
detest Trump. Democrats may find unity
in their shared rejection of Trump. The existence
of a moderate middle may be more myth than reality. With Trump having become the single issue,
compromise is impossible.
The partisan division is real. The GOP developed effective party discipline,
and the normally unruly Democrats have finally reacted and become more
disciplined. In Congress, each side almost
always follows the directives of its leaders.
Each party’s supporters include strong backers and leaners. Moderates exist among the leaners, but not independents. Only a small share of voters doesn’t lean in
either direction and includes true independents who may determine election outcomes.
The media has so significantly become engaged in covering
the political split that its coverage and opinions regard independents as political
deviants rather than proponents of alternatives to division. That’s how the party leaders see it as well. Still, there are true independents.
Few members of the House and Senate slip party discipline. The five biggest House dissenters are four Democrats,
including Maine’s Jared Goldin, from districts that Trump won, and one Republican
from a district that Harris carried. In
the Senate, Susan Collins (R-ME) and John Fetterman (D-PA) represent states won
by the other party’s presidential candidate.
Two GOP senators who are leaving the Senate, have become
willing to oppose Trump. One of them, Texas
Sen. John Cornyn, and Kentucky GOP Rep. Thomas Massie, a libertarian dissenter,
became Trump victims and lost their primaries.
That’s proof that Trump’s power has suppressed independence.
Sometimes, senators march to their own tune. Kentucky GOP Sen. Rand Paul is a loyal libertarian.
The two New Hampshire Democrats (one is not seeking reelection) sometimes are more
responsive to their swing state more than to the party’s demands. In 2010, the Alaska GOP dumped Sen. Lisa
Murkowski, the leading Republican dissenter, but she won by write-ins.
Some commentators suggest that the only way out of stalemate
is the formation of a new party, a home for moderates from both sides. Theoretically, Republican moderates opposed
to Trump wouldn’t become Democrats, but could align with Democratic
centrists. Presumably, the GOP would
melt away after Trump.
While new parties have emerged and gained major party
status, it’s rare, and there are no signs of it happening now.
Long ago in Maine, some Republicans in a then solidly red
state decided to back Democrat Edmund Muskie for governor. They did not become Democrats but chose to consider
themselves as independents, and Muskie won.
That kind of choice may be happening in some of this year’s elections,
and Democrats are trying to help it along.
In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn lost in 2024 after running
a solid Senate race and is again opposing an incumbent Republican. Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank has
withdrawn from the race to improve his chances.
In South Dakota, independent Brian Bengs, formerly a
Democrat, is running. Democratic
candidate Julian Beaudion dropped out.
In Idaho, independent Tod Achilles, a former Democrat, is
running against an incumbent. Democrat
David Roth withdrew.
In Montana, independent Seth Bodnar is running with the
support of Democratic leaders. Alani
Bankhead, the Democratic nominee, resisted pressure to withdraw, and she may help
the GOP.
In Alaska, Democratic House candidate Matt Schultz dropped
out in favor of independent Bill Hill.
Under the state’s unusual voting process, the top four open primary
candidates for the Senate are on the ballot.
The fourth, a Democrat, dropped out, allowing a Republican to move
up. The result pits three Republicans
against a single Democrat, already the frontrunner.
The Democrats’ tactic of strategic withdrawal is an answer
to how to create a comfortable political space for Republicans who reject Trump’s
takeover of their party without undergoing a political transformation. It also reflects broad voter disappointment
with both parties.
If the strategy works, it could give Democratic leaders
heartburn just as Fetterman and Golden have done. Independents may support Democratic leadership,
but their party loyalty is not guaranteed. If there are independent winners this year,
they may not abandon their special status at the Capitol doorstep.
If the Democrats’ strategic withdrawal doesn’t work, it might
not be taken as a failure, but rather as a first step.
