A real estate mogul flops
Trump’s foreign policy doesn’t work
Gordon L. Weil
He might have been good at New York property deals, which fed
his world champion ego, but he is learning that what works in Midtown does not
work in the Middle East.
After making war against Iran with a precise list of demands,
he claims success after getting far less than he sought and from what President
Obama had achieved, but which Trump killed out of spite.
If Trump could operate in the mean and tough real estate market,
why hasn’t he succeeded in dealing with Russia’s war on Ukraine, Israel and
Palestine, Iran and even North Korea?
Why did he torpedo long-standing and beneficial relationships with
Canada and Denmark?
New York real estate brings together people who are members
of the same tribe. Major developers share
his background and understand the same rules of the game. He could best them by sheer assertiveness or
downright intimidation, and they would readily do the same.
His success came because he would take risks and showed limitless
boldness and self-confidence. He knew
how to turn his media appearances into a form of personal advertising. His reputation grew large enough to make him
a favorite of celebrities and politicians.
Trump would win by using other people’s money. Thanks to his father’s backing, the banks
would lend to him. He could slow-pay or no-pay his suppliers.
Ultimately, only one developer could erect a building at
Fifth Avenue and 57th Street. He got the
location, and the result was Trump Tower.
No compromises.
Unlike the metropolitan real estate community, the complex world
scene holds multiple tribal histories and is about more than property. The Russian invasion can’t be settled by
bullying Ukraine into ceding territory to Putin. Trump can’t coerce Canada and Denmark (on
behalf of Greenland) to hand over their land to his U.S.
With his limited education and even more limited
understanding, he misses that Gotham is not Greenland. A critical element is missing – history.
As he came down the escalator at Trump Tower in 2015 to
announce his run for the presidency, he had faith that his business and media success
could translate into a political career where he would start at the top. It worked.
Better yet, after winning a majority in the 2024 elections, he crowned
himself with what seemed to be absolute power.
At first, other countries fed his ego with fawning
appeasement, enhancing his belief that he uniquely understood the world and how
it worked. But this was no real estate
market. Previously, he had not cared if he was liked, so long as he won and made
money. Increasingly, the world community
grew to dislike him and could keep him from closing deals.
Russia had long dominated Ukraine and treated Ukrainians
like the U.S. had treated Blacks. Putin
believed he could restore that relationship, and Trump, sharing his disdain,
was willing to help him. But this was
not about territory, because Ukrainians will fight to preserve their distinct
nationality. Trump failed and his role
as mediator must either adjust or fade away.
Israel had long enjoyed bipartisan American support, and
Trump used it to help Israel pursue the regional power it sought. But this would involve more than commercial deals
between Israel and a few Arab neighbors.
The Israel-Palestine conflict called for an honest broker, not merely a
man promoting short-term stunts to win himself the Nobel Peace Prize.
With Iran, Trump thought he commanded such great military power
that his opponents would quickly fold, just as they do in cutthroat real estate
battles. But Iran had the resources to
resist, and Trump, who claimed to have all the cards, had no idea how to play
them. The Iran agreement is likely to end
up with his putting lipstick on a pig.
The president was so greedy for gain, that he turned winning
into losing. In a practical sense,
Canada was already the 51st state economically when he went after it. He did not believe that it could have the resolve
to reduce its dependency. He had what he
sought, but what he really wanted was not possible – his name on the building. Same for Greenland.
He mistakenly ignored domestic policy issues, sneering at
affordability. Instead of bank loans, his
funding comes from the people, who grow unhappy and impatient when debt explodes
and inflation climbs. He overplayed his
dealmaking, leaving himself the loser at home and abroad.
He might have been able to outwit his real estate buddies,
but he did not understand that his self-promoting persona would not work in the
world where New York rules don’t apply.
The lesson for Trump: hubris matters less than history.
