Election could surprise pundits, transform politics

 

Gordon L. Weil

This election is different.

The polls say it will be decided by a handful of votes, but they could be flat wrong.  The most responsible pollsters admit that they could be wrong, and that they may be following each other in a herd.  Survey forecasts have become nothing more than conventional wisdom right now.

Candidates and campaigns on both sides have been showing signs of desperation and panic.  While that may be caused by pollsters’ forecasts, it could well reveal their own confusion.  And fear runs deep.

The main difference in the election is obvious and could be critical.  It pits a former president trying to make a comeback against the current vice president, a non-white woman. 

More than most past elections, this one is dominated by fear. The cause of confusion and fear is the daily data fix of the polls.  Polling has become an art, not a science.  Successfully completed interviews yield a poor sample of the voters and are subject to arbitrary and questionable adjustments made by competing pollsters. 

For many reasons, the polls may not forecast the election.

Polls themselves.  Their unrelenting predictions of a close race could create their own reality, influence voters, and have direct but unmeasurable effects. 

Lies.  People lie to polls.  Campaigns and their allies, including foreign governments, lie to voters.  The social media, hiding behind America’s cherished free speech, have become a political cesspool.  The effect of extreme charges offered as the truth is unmeasurable. 

Loyalty.  Donald Trump has extraordinarily loyal followers, allowing them to justify or ignore his extreme conduct, which goes beyond traditional bounds.  Their number and their turnout to vote are incalculable, but Trump counts on it heavily.

Traditional Republicans.  In 2016, Trump won with the support of people seeking change and loyal GOP voters.  This year, the opposition of traditional Republicans, led by former Rep. Liz Cheney, raises the possibility of significant defections. They may not answer polls, but they could turn out to be the real swing vote.

Women. The abortion issue has given Harris the answer to Trump’s loyal voters.  Women are motivated.  Their enthusiasm may help get out the vote, and it is possible that the existing majority of women voters over men will grow.

Men.  Some men do not want a woman as president.  They may have doubts Harris’ ability to negotiate with foreign autocrats, as Trump argues.  Also, the fact that the U.S. lags behind Britain, Germany, Italy, India and Australia and other countries in having chosen a woman leader may reveal something about the American electorate.

Youth.  Many of the new voter registrations reflect first-time, young voters.  The polls may not have been able to account for them. It is possible that many of them will respond to Taylor Swift and vote for Harris.

Economy.  The economy is healthy with recession and inflation fears quieted, but people ignore the big picture and still worry about their own pay and prices.   The economy should help Harris, but its individual effects boost Trump.  It’s the biggest single issue, but only for about a quarter of voters, so it may be overrated.

Biden.  Vice presidents don’t make policy, but they do gain valuable governing experience.  Harris may get credit for her role backing up Biden, but Trump has succeeded in linking her with the president, who remains unpopular because he was late to act on immigration and is held responsible for inflation.  Harris has had a tough time asserting her independence.

Age.  Biden was pushed out by his age, and Trump, obviously declining, would be the oldest president.  Whether his fading and the possibility of JD Vance as president matters to voters is unknown.  

Race.  The “browning of America” is inevitable, but strongly disliked by some people.  The immigration issue could well be about race.  Obama’s presidency may have raised racial sensitivity rather than easing it, and many objections to Harris may be about her being Black.  This may not be a question that people answer pollsters honestly.

Character.  The polls treat character as just another issue. But character may matter more than all issues for some voters.  Trump’s statements and threats make him highly controversial, and he has been the focus of this campaign.

Turnout.  The Democrats seek a big turnout, yielding solid majorities to end Trumpism.  The GOP worries and works hard to suppress the Democratic vote by raising false doubts about ballot security.  The surge in early voting could help the Democrats. 

Harris needs a convincing victory if she is to avoid prolonged battles over the election’s outcome and gain some political room to govern.   Trump would relish even a slim win that gets him to the White House.

Next Tuesday will show just how accurate the polls are and how different this election really is.

Big problem with polls; pollsters tinker with data

 

Gordon L. Weil

To ward against underestimating support for Donald Trump, many pollsters adjust their survey findings to increase the influence of how voters say they voted in the last election, according to a report by Nate Cohn, the New York Times chief polling analyst.

According to the report, though the pollsters have their own doubts about the validity of this recall-vote adjustment, they use it to avoid the possibility of badly missing the true outcome.  In short, they try to narrow their possible error and may try not to differ from the herd.

One major defect of the adjustment is that there’s a bias in remembering that you voted for the winner, he says.  But there might also be a bias for “changing” your vote, if the candidate’s later actions cause you to regret how you voted.  In any case, voters may not provide a correct answer.

In effect, the implicit conclusion in making this adjustment is that one election is like another.  With Trump running for a third time, the temptation to reach that conclusion may be great.  And it might be correct.

But what about the possibility that this election is different from most elections?   Kamala Harris is not white and not male.  Those are pretty big differences from the past.

And when the Supreme Court toppled Roe v. Wade, it was like a constitutional amendment.  It not only awakened the opposition of many women, but it raised questions about the meaning of personal freedom.  The issue won’t fade away. 

Texas, with one of the strictest laws in the country, challenged the power of the federal government to order it to save lives, claiming it already had such a requirement. But the legal risks for doctors making the life-and-death decision are so great that many won’t perform abortions. Today, the Supreme Court using its phantom docket (decisions with no reasons given) upheld the Texas position and further fueled the issue.

The abortion issue is likely to bring out women to the ballot box.  They may be more numerous than in the past, and they may recruit others.  A majority of voters are women.

The defection of leading Republicans from Trump, despite having endorsed him eight and four years ago, suggests that the recall-vote adjustment does not apply to them. Perhaps other traditional Republicans will follow them.  We might call this the “Liz Cheney effect,” for which no adjustment is made.

There is a wave of new voter registrations this year, as in Maine, and especially among young voters.  How does the recall-vote adjustment work when the margin of victory in a swing state may be less than the number of new voters? We might call this the “Taylor Swift effect,” for which no adjustment was made.

At the end of his analysis, Cohn writes, “A near repeat of the last presidential election is certainly a plausible outcome. In today’s polarized era, who could possibly be surprised by a repeat in Mr. Trump’s third presidential run?”  He concludes, “But if this election is different, in any direction, this year’s polls might not be able to see it coming.”  The pollsters are not reporting data; they are manipulating it.

Another conclusion may be that the pollsters are more interested in protecting their reputations than in making a serious attempt at understanding the electorate.  They may fail at both.