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“Trump
is exactly what Republicans are not,” former Missouri GOP Sen. John
Danforth wrote recently.
While
that may seem extreme, the statement raises a serious issue about
Trump’s relationship to the Republicans. “GOP leaders still
puzzle over President Trump,” said a Boston Globe headline.
Is
Trump a Republican? He looks increasingly like an independent. He
attacks Republicans daily, often more fiercely than Democrats.
Trump
could be the second independent president in U.S. history. John
Tyler, the vice president who took office when the president died
just one month after the 1841 inauguration, had been added to the
Whig Party ticket for regional balance. The Whigs were the majority
in Congress, but they fought with Tyler.
So
they tossed Tyler out of the party with the result that he had no
party and no domestic policy success. In a 2017 survey of
historians, he ranked 39th out of 43 presidents.
Trump
may have become a Republican purely to have a path to national
office. Like Tyler, he was once a Democrat. By now, it is evident
that he gets along with congressional Republicans no better than
Tyler did with his adopted party.
Without
strong loyalty to the party whose label they carried, both Tyler and
Trump could easily be classified as presidents who were really
independents. And both found the American party system made it
difficult for an independent to deal with Congress.
So
far, Trump is having no more success with Congress than did Tyler,
who, like Trump, thought he could succeed by stressing his
ultra-conservative principles. Tyler was said to dislike slavery,
though he supported it and kept slaves. At best, Trump is equivocal
about white supremacists.
Having
alienated Congress, Tyler was the first president ever to face an
impeachment effort. Without real party support, he risked removal.
It’s early, but Trump could face Republican hostility matching his
own open disdain for Senate Majority Leader McConnell, House Speaker
Ryan and Sen. McCain.
Trump
clearly believes that he has a special link with many voters,
regardless of his rocky relationship with the GOP. By keeping the
support of his “core” voters, he may reason that elected
Republicans will have to follow him or risk losing to Trump-backed
primary opponents. In effect, he would create his own party.
The
media may not emphasize his ties to the “core” to his
satisfaction, but his tweets provide a direct line of communication.
The adulation of his backers and Fox News’ favorable coverage could
be all he needs. He is unfazed by falling poll numbers, probably
because he beat the polls in his surprise electoral victory.
Maine
has had more experience than other states with independent chief
executives. In recent decades, it elected two independent governors.
Gov. LePage might also be classified an independent in the Trump
pattern.
The
two independents, James Longley and Angus King, were both Democrats
who believed they would have a better chance of communicating their
message and getting on the ballot if they left the party.
Winner
with less than a popular majority, Longley was blunt talker, not
above name-calling. His term was characterized by conflict. An
upset winner frequently hostile to both parties, he chose not to run
for re-election.
LePage
has won the governorship twice without a popular majority. He shares
much of Longley’s approach, confrontational and almost entirely
independent of party, though he ran as a Republican. His positions
leave little room for compromise. He often echoes Trump.
King
was different from the others. He did not attack the parties,
adopting some policies favorable to each. He was seen as a
modernizing moderate. When he ran for reelection, most Democrats and
some Republicans were with him, and he won by a wide margin.
The
lesson of these three Maine governors seems to be that an
independent’s greatest likelihood of success results from not
taking independence to the point of going to war with the parties in
the legislative branch.
Trump’s
independence stems from having won when nobody, probably including
himself, thought he would. As president, he continues to campaign in
the belief that what worked to elect him will work in governing. He
tries to intimidate congressional Republicans and spurns Democrats.
If
Trump is correct in his belief that he represents a new kind of
politics, perhaps he could transform American government.
More
likely, he will find that an independent president must make an extra
effort to work with Congress, not against it, or risk suffering
Tyler’s fate. Having dodged impeachment, Tyler was denied
nomination for a second term. His successor was a Democrat.
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