Gordon L. Weil
Conventional wisdom is dead.
No pundit’s opinion on the election could foresee the assassination
attempt on Donald Trump or the debate debacle of Joe Biden. Both events changed everything, especially
for the Democrats.
Even before these developments, Biden struggled to stay even
with Trump in the polls. This is not a good position for an incumbent
president, even when running against a former president. Now, Biden and the Democrats are in even
greater risk of losing.
First, whatever the poor historical record on presidential
assassinations, the attempt on Trump merits the strongest condemnation, no
matter one’s politics. There’s too much
loose talk about violent solutions to political disputes, and it may make a
potential assassin feel justified. They
aren’t and never should be.
The attempt impels us to look at the person who is president
and their meaning to us.
When the Constitution created the office of President of the
United States, the title described the person who was the formal chief of state
and head of the federal government. The
much-revered George Washington could be succeeded by lesser leaders, because
their role was restricted to heading a limited government.
By the time of the Civil War epoch, that changed. The President of the United States became the
leader of the American people. Beyond
overseeing the faithful execution of the federal laws, the president came to
embody the political, moral and economic leadership of the nation.
Whatever his policies and practices, Trump comes across as a
personality inspiring loyalty and respect from a large part of the population. The
assassination attempt and his defiant clenched fist reply elevated his status
even further. Brimming with confidence, he picked Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, sure to
be absolutely loyal to him, as his running mate.
Whatever his policies and practices, President Biden comes
across as a modest and goals-oriented president. If you don’t want Trump, he represents himself
as the solution. But he does not come as close as Trump to having the charisma and
the aura of self-confidence needed by the nation’s leader.
While backing Biden and his policies, many Democrats seek his
withdrawal from the race for the presidency.
His age has taken its toll. While
he might be right that he could competently serve, it is doubtful that he could
provide the inspirational leadership that the country expects from a president. Good enough is not enough.
If they have a chance of defeating Trump, it comes down to
two possibilities. Trump might commit an
error that discredits him, but the assassination attempt has given him a lot of
cushion. Or the Democrats could come up with a younger, compelling candidate
who would provide Trump some real competition.
The current situation leaves the Democrats with problems in
all three elections this year – for president, the entire House of
Representatives and one-third of the Senate.
The presidential winner sometimes has “coattails” on which House
and Senate candidates ride to office.
This year, however, the Democrats must hope to win enough congressional control
to block some of Trump’s moves, should he win.
Their success was already in doubt before the Trump assassination attempt. If he has gained, his coattails may have
grown larger.
A Democratic candidate who makes a strong showing even if
they fall short, could help encourage the balance that would come between Trump
and a Democratic Congress. If the
Democrats fail, they may be forced to spend years in the political wilderness.
Biden has seemingly been convinced that his path to victory would
come from more closely aligning himself with Bernie Sander’s progressive policies.
That may have the effect of leaving behind centrist voters who seek more practical
policies and fewer partisan red lines.
Though not an exact parallel, look at the reelection of
Maine Gov. Janet Mills, who defeated Paul LePage, her one-term predecessor and a
Trump loyalist. She occupied the middle
ground, occasionally leaning to the right.
And she benefited from the abortion wars and her recognition that
progressive Democrats had nowhere else to go.
The Democrats could readily select a Biden replacement who could
follow the same pattern, especially if they were to pick a dynamic, centrist woman. It would also help if they adopt a simple
message and talk less about abstract “democracy,” when what they mean is simply
obeying the law.
Trump’s message, “Make America Great Again,” is feared by
many as a return to the bad, old days – more polluted, more unjust, more economically
unbalanced.
The Democrats could also send a similarly simple message
that might resonate. A suggestion: “Democrats
– the American Way.” That slogan could imply that MAGA, Sander’s “socialism”
and economic and ethnic injustice are all inconsistent with the nation’s traditional
aspirations.
The Democrats need a message about how they will solve practical problems and a strong candidate to deliver it.
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