The real and permanent effect of the midterms

 

The real and permanent effect of the midterms

More than who governs was decided

 

Gordon L. Weil

Benjamin Franklin famously told a questioner that the draft Constitution created “a republic if you can keep it.”

The midterm elections have similarly created an historic opportunity, if we can use it.  The liberal democracy that lasted from 1933 until 2017 must be replaced.  Trumpist authoritarianism has been rejected as its successor.  The U.S. now has the chance for a do-over.

What will be done with the opportunity depends on whether the Democrats try to meet public needs and undo Trump’s damage or resort mostly to feel-good retaliation.  It also depends on whether the surviving Republicans are ready to join in governing or can’t get over their loyalty to a failed president.  The next two years will tell people if even more reform is needed.

Whatever happens, the basis of the future may have been built this year.

A major concern of the extreme MAGA right was the demographic message that sometime in the next 20 years, the American majority will be non-white.  Race-based redistricting and closing down non-white immigration, legal or illegal, is evidence of this thinking.

Throughout most of U.S. history, running the country was the birthright of white men. Everybody else either stayed in the kitchen or were treated like immature children (to put slavery, racism and discrimination in its best light).  This election marked the end of that history.

The election results show both the inevitability of demographic change and that many white people don’t worry about it.  The hallmarks of change, real and permanent, are all around. 

The House of Representatives is to be led by a Black.  The Senate by a Jew.  Texas by a Latina.  New Mexico by a member of the Laguna Pueblo tribe.

Among the most stunning signs of change is the likely election of the first Black senator from Mississippi not to have been chosen under federal occupation during Reconstruction.  Though not political, another indicator is the pride of a once anti-Catholic country in the leadership of an American pope.  

More than 100 Democratic women are expected to serve in the House along with almost 30 Republican women.  While these numbers do not reflect the percentage of women in the population, they will have a strong influence on public policy.  Speaker Nancy Pelosi was a trailblazer.  The trail is now open.  The majority leader will be a woman.  

On the Senate side, there have been 27 women from both parties serving.  Next year, for the first time, three Black women will be senators, and a state will be represented by two women of color.

In state capitols, at least 17 governors will be women, mostly Democrats.   Nationwide, about one-third of state legislators are women.  Both numbers are increasing.

The number of Blacks in high public office is also growing.  Florida and Georgia, once Confederate states, elected Black governors, one a Republican and the other a Democrat.  There will be five Black governors, four newly elected.  There may be as many as seven African American senators. 

This is progress for seating Blacks, but it is only a partial success.   The Supreme Court has placed obstacles in the path of electing Blacks to Congress by allowing race-based redistricting in some states.  The long-ago Massachusetts creator of gerrymandering probably did not envisage the tool being used for racial discrimination.

The trends toward a more open government have been under way for decades.  But the Democratic victories this year have pushed them ahead farther and faster.  If the Democrats need to find a common policy shared by moderates and progressives, it could be continuing their efforts to open more doors for more people.

The Republicans talk about their need to attract minorities.  The elections this year show they have failed.  The Democrats have “the big mo” –momentum.  The GOP has to stop itself from going backwards.

Trump, who is the godfather of Cabinet firings, has dismissed only women so far.  This would be a good moment for him to clean house, though he would surely lose some champion sycophants.  The most likely candidate seems to be Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, whose abuse of power otherwise sets him up for impeachment.

Most of this year’s new faces have risen to public office from modest beginnings.  They represent a triumph of merit over power derived from tax breaks, political skill over brute financial force.  The American system makes both possible, but voters have shown their sentiments by rating corruption as one key reason for their dumping Republicans.

Trump could be a good Republican and halt deficit spending.  That might mean raising the tax bills on himself and his Fortune 400 friends.  The rule of celebrity and wealth, with its gilded office, overblown East Wing, and triumphal arch, must end.  Trump should take a good look at himself in the reflecting pool.

Otherwise, 2026 was just the beginning.

Voters on brink of a major correction --more at stake than next Congress

Voters on brink of a major correction

More at stake than next Congress

 

Gordon L. Weil

On election night, the congressional seat count will be the focus.

Will Trump and his MAGA Republicans be rejected?  Will Democratic progressives advance their movement at the expense of moderates?  Whose votes made the difference – women, young, stay-at-homes?   Pundits, candidates and campaigns will have ready answers.  But there may be more to the outcome than these immediate conclusions. 

Three currents run through the electorate.   Right-wing Trumpers, traditional moderates and left-wing progressives have been seeking acceptance by the voters.  Just as 2020 signaled a turning point with Trump’s comeback and his emphasis on authoritarian government, voters this year may make a correction, either returning to moderation or turning toward liberalism.

The U.S. is an historically conservative country.  But the Great Depression so disrupted it that an enhanced role for government under the liberal New Deal became necessary and possible.  Social Security was its hallmark. 

After the Second World War, the U.S. tried to live up to the lessons it had learned.  Reacting to the defeat of Nazi fascism and the growing rivalry with Communist dictatorship, the country stayed the course.

One symbol of the new American center was the Supreme Court decision ending legal racial discrimination.  A national road network was built for the first time.  Voting rights were extended to more of the population, notably Blacks and the young.  Medicare was created.  Environmental rules began to be written.

Congress could often find compromises on major issues.   While some deep disagreements existed, congressional cooperation reflected a broad national consensus based on shared values.  Each side accepted some of the arguments of the other, and losses did not result in all-out political war.

But voters became discontented, because the government, though liberated from historic conservatism, had not paid adequate attention to the hopes and needs of many people.  Discrimination persisted.  Prosperity did not live up to political promises.  Taxes had grown too far and too fast.   Some voters believed they were losing control.

People increasingly wanted change and were frustrated when it did not happen.   Donald Trump, searching for a winning platform, cultivated this discontent and made it into his program.  Though to many it seemed like a marginal view, he managed to use his celebrity to develop and exploit and grow this part of the electorate.

Surprisingly to many, he succeeded.  He was unconstrained by historical norms and drew support from many who gave change a higher priority than continuity.  In 2024, he defeated the moderate center that had failed to bring about change.  Trump took his victory as not only for a mandate for his right-wing movement but as an endorsement of his free-wheeling, egotistical style.

Given broad authority by the Supreme Court, he exceeded even the greatly loosened norms.   He openly enriched himself.  He began a war he could not finish, imposing heavy costs on average people, including even his most steadfast supporters.  He tried to manipulate the legal system.  He bragged and he threatened, even his closest allies.  His ambitions grew, but his popularity fell.

Because he was so closely identified with the Republican Party that had been swallowed by his MAGA, his problems became his party’s problems.   This year’s elections are a judgment on Trump, which he invited, but also on the future of the movement he has headed.

Just as the right became unhappy with politics as usual, so did the left.  The government’s agenda looks backwards and favors the wealthy elite over average people.  The left wants to restore and augment government to support the broad popular needs, such as for health care.  The right scorns it as socialist, but it has sought to make community interest equal to individual interest.

Progressives seek government social benefit programs, financed by higher taxes on the wealthy who have been favored by Trump.  They might support his closed borders but not indiscriminate deportations.  They respond to calls for change by forward-looking policies rather than a return to an unrecoverable past.

The Democratic progressives have been tested by these elections.  Voters may reveal wider acceptance of the progressive agenda or simply conclude that it is an isolated outburst of frustration whose goals are not broadly popular.

The returns will show if Trump’s MAGA can withstand its setbacks and continue to rule with a brand of authoritarianism that suits the public mood for dismantling much of what the moderates built.  If it has failed, it may leave behind thousands of bitter and disaffected citizens.

The progressives have faced closer scrutiny by the voters.  If they succeed, they will be serious contenders to lead the Democratic Party in 2028.  If they have failed, they probably will hang on to fight another day.

The future of the moderates depends on whether the traditional GOP can be revived and the Democrats’ platform, dictated by whoever emerges to lead them.   That process begins now.

 

Trump, always dominant, now seems desperate

 

Trump, always dominant, now seems desperate

Power ebbs, as time passes

 

Gordon L. Weil

Trump’s time is passing.

He has been at the center of national affairs for 10 years. History teaches that, without dictatorial control, political power often passes in about a decade.  Hitler, the worst despot in history, lasted 12 years.  Napoleon was French emperor for 10 years. 

Under a democratic system, U.S. presidents are limited to two four-year terms.  French President Macron is nearing the end of his ten-year presidency.

No matter how popular a national leader may be, their standing begins to erode the moment they take office.  The reasons are obvious.

Officeholders make decisions, and even positive moves have negative consequences.  Adversely affected groups grow, decreasing the initial popularity of an office holder.  President Trump’s immigration enforcement, going well beyond “the worst of the worst,” has undermined support among some minorities.

Another cause of lost popularity occurs when promises made during an election campaign are not kept or, even worse, the opposite action is adopted.  Trump has emphasized that he keeps his promises, contributing to his electoral appeal.  But the Iran war has marked a departure from his promises to avoid lengthy foreign wars and to bring prices down.

During a leader’s term, they exhaust the promises inherent in their campaign platform.  Either they achieve their goals or they abandon them.  Voters grow tired of their leadership, limiting their influence.  Trump made big promises on tariffs and their economic effects.  When he failed to produce promised results, voters suffered long-term harm and their confidence in him waned.

At their worst, a long-term leader may become overly impressed by their supposed popular support and their resulting power, which may encourage them to go beyond acceptable limits.  They may believe they can exercise unlimited discretion.   The enrichment of Trump and his family, thanks to his presidency, has produced hostility from people who had supported him.

While these trends may exist for any leader as their term lengthens, they have become especially evident for Trump.  The problem for him, as it has been for many of his predecessors in history, is hubris, defined as “exaggerated pride or self-confidence.”

He is unyielding in his self praise and his claims to intellectual superiority over just about anybody else.  It showed in his campaign claim that, “I will be the greatest jobs president that God ever created.”   Hubris allows him to override good advice in favor of his own instincts, often unsupported by facts. 

His super self-confidence radiates out through his undeniable charisma.  His unchecked and assertive personality arises from a career in forcing his way to success.  Assertion is everything and denial is absolute.  His personal style has been the key element in the creation of a core of supporters –the essential MAGA followers – whose allegiance is cult-like.

As his appeal erodes, Trump has two ways of retaining his authority.  One, the more dangerous, is to sabotage the political system so that elections, the central mechanism of popular control, are undermined by baseless challenges.  That is the story of the 2020 presidential election and its aftermath in the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.

The other tool Trump uses is a series of efforts to gain popular support with government largesse.  Here are his major offers:

1. DOGE dividend.  As much as $5,000, it was to be paid from savings in federal government operations.  While it did not happen, Trump has proposed a payment to each adult American citizen of $5,000, if the Republicans win the midterms and presumably have the votes for this $1 trillion plus payout.

2. Warrior dividend.  Members of the Armed Forces were paid $1,776 as a one-time bonus.  Redirected from military housing.

3. Tariff dividends or rebates.  Taxpayers were promised $2,000 either from tariff benefits or to compensate for the costs of tariffs, later ruled unlawful.  Nothing has been paid.

4. Trump accounts. A $1,000 one-time payment funds education accounts for a limited group of children.  Approved by Congress, these payments have begun.

5. Affordable Care Act rebates.  Some, facing large premium increases, receive $500 redirected from existing Obamacare funds.  Payments have begun.

6. Medicare Part B.  Many Medicare recipients will receive $90 from the program. Payments from another designated purpose have begun.

Faced with skyrocketing diesel prices resulting from the Iran war, Trump moved to lift sanctions on Russia, allowing diesel sales that he hoped would lower prices.  Intended to help with the midterms and reduce Iran war opposition, it will not work, because it is too little and too late.  Trump has also ignored deep popular dislike of doing favors for Russia. 

His other last-minute moves are likely to fail.  To swing voters, he may now appear desperate, no longer dominant.

For Trump, hubris carries him onward, and he concludes, “Bottom line, it’s all gonna work out.   You know why?  It always does.”

Big men meet Murphy's Law, face unintended consequences

 

Big men meet Murphy’s Law

Unintended consequences are a theme

 

Gordon L. Weil

American aerospace engineer Edward A. Murphy, Jr. coined a saying that came to the world as Murphy’s Law:  "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong."

Because humans are imperfect, Murphy’s Law may merely state the obvious, though it’s often ignored.  For overly self-confident leaders, unwilling to listen to others’ advice, the Law is virtually certain to apply.

Major events in the world are determined these days by people, full of their own power and pride, acting while either ignoring advice or not even seeking it.  They may believe they have reached their exalted positions because they are superior and are thus less liable to error.

Their actions may involve risk, a recognition that they may fail to achieve their desired results.  The outcome could turn out worse than expected, but trying to achieve their goal is worth the risk.  Taking risks is an important part of life, but the cost of possibly negative outcomes must be considered.

People with inflated self-confidence believe they are virtually risk free.  They foresee positive results and believe that any minor negatives can be handled without undermining the achievement of their objective.  Still, they may find their actions have unexpected and high costs. 

In recent years, world events have been determined by men who undertook actions with excessive confidence and chose to ignore the possibility of unintended consequences.

Russian President Vladimir Putin deeply regretted the end of his country’s dominance through the Soviet Union and sought to restore it.   Resentful of Ukraine’s independence, in 2014 he seized Crimea.  Having encountered no resistance from the West, he was encouraged to continue.

In 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in the expectation that it could quickly fall.  It would gain an added buffer between itself and NATO.  Given the defense organization’s internal weaknesses and Russia’s 2014 experience, he seemingly expected to restore at least some Russian influence in Eastern Europe.

Surprisingly, Ukraine effectively repelled the invaders.  Europe, experiencing a territorial invasion for the first time since 1940, reacted strongly, enjoying substantial U.S. backing.  The Baltic states were strengthened.  Choosing no longer to be a buffer, Finland joined NATO, as did Sweden. 

Putin’s plan failed, and Russia found itself engaged in a long war, suffering military losses, shortages and inflation.  Ukraine attacks key facilities.  Russia has lost vital oil revenues, becoming increasingly dependent on China.  What Putin saw as an easy victory over a weak neighbor, produced confrontation with NATO, not a buffer.

Putin’s Ukraine invasion had unintended consequences.

While negotiations with Iran were underway in February 2026, President Donald Trump decided to go to war against Iran, seeking several goals, most notably the end of its nuclear development program for peacetime or military purposes.  He mistakenly expected a quick war and complete victory.

Instead, Iran managed to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for the world’s oil trade, resulting in shortages and sharply increased prices for petroleum products and fertilizer.  Economies across the world were harmed, and consumer prices in the U.S. soared.  The sole American objective became the re-opening of the waterway, which its war had closed.

Trump’s Iran war has unintended consequences.

Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist leader, has promised to make Taiwan, formerly a territory of his country, once again a part of it.  By increasing his navy’s presence and potential control over the China Sea, claiming it as China’s internal waters, he moved his army closer to being able to invade and reclaim Taiwan.

Japan is China’s biggest Asian rival.  Faced with Chinese ambitions, it has shifted its military policy from defense to deterrence, while greatly boosting its military spending.  The unexpected, new policy reflects its decision to provide an independent deterrent while remaining aligned with the U.S.   China now faces a constraint on its plans.

Xi’s expansionism has unintended consequences.

On October 7, 2023, Hamas, the terrorist group controlling Gaza, launched a brutal, surprise attack on Israel.  Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader, understood that Hamas was risking Israel’s retaliation, but believed its defenses had weakened.  Proportionate retaliation would be an acceptable price to pay for pressuring Israel to accommodate some Palestinian demands.

Sinwar faced a powerful Israeli response.  Ultimately, the Arab presence in Gaza was thrown into question and hope for the creation of an independent Palestinian state, accepted by Israel, evaporated.  Turmoil has grown in the Middle East.

Under Sinwar’s leadership, Hamas assumed a risk, but the extreme costs, including his own death, were unintended consequences. 

Despite these recent cases, powerful leaders continue to ignore the likelihood of unintended consequences. 

Warned about an AI doomsday by some of its developers, Trump asserts, "the only control or 'guardrails' that AI needs is a STRONG AND SMART (High IQ!) PRESIDENT, and the U.S.A. has that, in spades!"

“Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.”

 

The president who threatens his own country

 

The president who threatens his own country

Trump at war with his opponents

 

Gordon L. Weil

People should be either sad, angry or worried.  Or all three.

Recent news reveals far more than mere political disagreement.  It’s normal in a democracy for people to disagree and to argue that they know better than the opposition.  It’s the new normal to turn opposition into hatred and disagreement into unyielding conflict, threatening the country.

In his speech to the Republican rally that was called a convention, President Trump engaged in fear-mongering, repeatedly claiming that a Democratic congressional victory would bring Communist control.  This is not acceptable political talk nor can it be dismissed as campaign rhetoric; some people take it seriously because he says so. 

Rally participants shouted out for the killing of Democratic Senate candidates.  Sen. Ted Cruz was speaking at the time, but wanted to give the impression he had not heard, though many others did.  To ensure continued control by Trump Republicans, anything goes.  If Trump’s view prevails, no political opposition to his authoritarian government could survive.

Trump divides.  Upon taking office, the Trump administration abruptly fired the head of the armed forces, a Black man, and the head of the Navy, a white woman.    The actions implied that they got their jobs because of favoritism, not their experience and ability.  Without evidence, such prejudicial judgments can be understood as legitimizing racism and sexism.

He rejects affirmative action, but goes further to remove from office people he sees as taking the place of the historical ruling class.  He tries to rewrite or deny history.   Slavery cannot be erased as part of that history, yet that’s now being attempted in museums and national parks.

Beyond the federal government avoiding efforts promoting diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI), he withholds government funding to force non-governmental institutions, from universities to law firms, to follow his line.  Critical scientific research, through which America has led the world, will be severely crippled.

The president uses the augmented powers given to him by the Supreme Court to use the federal government for personal enrichment and retribution against his critics.  The DOJ brings spurious legal actions against critics and opponents, while openly admitting that the evidence of their supposed crimes must be found only after charges are brought.  That’s not how justice works.

These moves may intimidate their subjects into submission or retreat.  They certainly constitute harassment, aimed at making life more difficult and costly for his critics.  He never uses these tactics against supporters and, in fact, pardoned people who attacked the Capitol police in 2021.

He sues the news media and seeks regulatory penalties for those who simply question him.  Freedom of speech is a one-way street for his administration.  If successful, he could control or eliminate expressions of opposition to his actions.

He has terrorized his own political party and converted it into his personal property.  Anxious to hold onto their seats in Congress, Republicans temporize or keep quiet.  They follow him, because they’re scared of him.  The GOP, historically against more federal debt, now gives him all that he wants.  Their interest in survival exceeds their obligation to public service.

The Trump administration operates on the principle that the U.S. is the most powerful nation in the world, militarily and economically, and can force others to do what it demands.  Tariffs and warships, not diplomacy, are the prime instruments of foreign policy.  Adding insult to injury by making wild claims against other countries is part of this policy.

He reduced military support for South Korea, an essential ally in restraining China’s ambitions, because it does not support his Iran war.  He openly disdains Europe, demanding its support without consulting it.  He covets Greenland.  He turns Israel, long supported by both parties, into a partisan issue.   All this is personal politics, not leadership.

Canada has long been a willing dependent of the U.S.  Trying to achieve its complete subservience to the U.S., Trump levied high tariffs and launched aggressive and extravagant insults.  In Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, he found a rare opponent who would not be intimidated and who knows that Trump’s America is forfeiting its global standing.

The world’s problem is not Donald Trump.  It’s that the American people elected him a second time after experiencing his first term.  It’s not that you cannot trust Trump; it’s that you cannot trust America.  Turning away from America is a painful but inevitable process.

The elections this year are a referendum on Trump.  If Trump Republicanism survives, then more of the same can be expected.  Increasingly, average people may see Trump policies threatening their standard of living, their rights and their opportunity.

The question is not about whether the divided Democrats can get out of their own way.  It is whether the American people pay enough attention to look out for their own good.

Disagree?  Please comment.

Trump: president v. judges

 

Trump faces his loyal opposition

President v. judges

Gordon L. Weil

 

A war has been going on within the federal government since the day Donald Trump returned to the presidency.  Last week, a major battle took place, and Trump lost.

The war is not between the president and Congress or the Supreme Court.   It’s waged between him and federal district court judges, even some he appointed.  It’s not about parties to cases; it is a direct confrontation between the judges and the president. 

Trump believes that his 2024 election victory gave him almost unlimited freedom of action.  Hundreds of federal cases have been filed in U.S. district courts challenging his assertion of authority, frequently expressed through a massive flood of executive orders.

Federal cases start in district courts.  They decide on both the facts and the law.   The judges make the key decisions that often determine their outcome.  Appeals courts, including the Supreme Court, may decide if the law was applied properly.

Speaking of presidential actions, President Nixon said, “when the President does it, that means that it is not illegal, by definition.”  Trump agrees, which amounts to saying that he is the law.  District courts often get to decide on its validity in practice.   If they decide against him, some of their decisions may have national implications.

This arrangement inevitably sets up possible confrontations between Trump’s Department of Justice and district courts in the cases that have been brought against the Trump administration all over the country.

Courts usually decide carefully, and that can take time.  They may suspend the Trump action while considering a case.  But he is impatient and often asks appeals courts to block the suspension. They may allow his order to go into effect for an extended period, intentionally restricting the role of the district court.  The DOJ also finds ways to delay proceedings.

When a district court decides against him, Trump frequently attacks the judge.  Even if he had appointed some of the judges whose decisions he dislikes, he may call them weak or misguided.  He claims others are political partisans or incompetents.

Top DOJ’s lawyers have previously worked for Trump when he was out of office.   As federal government representatives, they may transition to supporting him as president.  But judges have increasingly found the quality of DOJ legal work substandard and inconsistent with the rules they must follow.

Taken together, these situations have brought to the surface the rift between Trump and many judges.  While Congress, his executive branch and even the Supreme Court conform to his views, the district courts have become the principal source of the checks and balances that are supposed to limit the other branches.

Last week, the conflict broke into the open, with a Florida district court judge ruling firmly against the president as a private citizen and head of the executive branch.

In 2019, Trump’s personal tax records were leaked to the press, and the culprit ended up in prison.  But Trump sued the IRS for an apology and compensation.

To bring a dispute to a court, the parties must be “adverse,” having conflicting interests creating a case for the court to handle.  Adverse parties may settle the case by agreement between themselves, leaving the judge and the court with no further role. 

Trump and the IRS reached what they called a settlement.  The IRS would apologize.  He would be compensated by gaining total freedom from IRS audits.  A $1.776 billion fund would compensate people who had supposedly been mistreated by the Biden administration.  While the DOJ says that fund has been dropped, Trump has not formally agreed, and the deal stands.

The district court judge found that Trump was trying to use a deal he had created with the IRS, which is under his control, to gain significant personal benefit.  First, he filed his complaint.  Then, without further proceedings, he settled the supposed claim.  The settlement legitimizes freedom for him and his family from IRS scrutiny.

But the judge ruled that, without adverse parties, there was no case and thus no settlement.  She found that the original filing did not qualify as a case, but was a contrived way to benefit Trump and his family.

The judge also ruled that the DOJ violated the Court’s rules and should pay the costs of other parties.   Rules violations by the DOJ’s lawyers would be referred to the bar authorities in states where they are licensed.   One such lawyer is Todd Blanche, Trump’s former personal attorney, nominated to be the U.S. Attorney General.

This judge and other district court judges can take on the president thanks to the life tenure of federal judges.  The war will continue, so they need that protection given them by the nation’s founders.

 

 

Bellwether election coming up -- One May race could tell it all

Bellwether election coming up

One May race could tell it all

 

Gordon L. Weil

Is he a good Republican?  

Reject Obamacare?  Check.   Close Department of Education?  Check.  Loosen gun control? Check.  Claim global warming is pseudoscience?  Check.  Balance the budget? Check.

That’s Thomas Massie, the Republican House member from Kentucky’s Fourth District.  He’s an 84 percent backer of President Trump, while Maine GOP Sen. Susan Collins, classified as a moderate, backs him 96 percent.  That makes him a despised rebel.

Trump backs a well-financed candidate challenging Massie in the May 19 primary.  The president now defines what it means to be a Republican and will tolerate no independence.  If successful, Massie’s rival could help end the president’s political heartburn.

The race comes down to Massie versus Trump.  It will be a test of Trump’s popularity among Republicans and if the traditional budget-balancing party, the classic conservative GOP, still exists and can make a comeback.  The district is solid red, so its vote will take the pulse of Republican support.

Massie, like Kentucky U.S. Senator Rand Paul, is a libertarian.  Like Paul, he is true to his beliefs and is closely aligned with deep conservatism.   Government should do less, a lot less, and sharply cut the mounting national debt.  If that means no aid to Israel, no Iran war, little foreign involvement, that’s all right.  Just not with Trump.

The primary represents a test for Trump of his own choosing.  He demands and usually gets total loyalty from GOP House members.  In the first year of his second term, Trump appeared to enjoy unlimited and complete power.  Massie’s opposition has mostly been annoying, though he led in getting some of the Epstein papers made public.  Most House Republicans treat him as a pariah.

But the corruptive force of Trump’s power is challenging his hold on the party and the country.

Part of Trump’s 2024 electoral success depended on his making inroads into traditional Democratic constituencies.  Some of his actions have harmed the interests of social and ethnic groups, which split to support him.  Their disappointment may now emerge as a barometer of his standing.  At the same time, Democrats who did not vote in 2024 may also rejoin their party.

His purification of the Republican Party by discrediting and defeating traditionalists pushes away potential supporters.   They have sustained his policies, but will they begin to respond to voter concerns and become more independent of Trump’s threats as the campaigns progress?  He should have cause for concern.

His failure to tame inflation, a major factor in his victory, affects middle-class voters who backed him because of his cost-cutting promises.

His attack on the pope and his self-portrayal as Jesus has aroused open opposition among religious conservatives.

His obvious discrimination against Blacks and women, beginning with the dismissal of the Chair of the Joint Chiefs, a Black, and the head of the Navy, a woman, has offended some in these large constituencies and may lead to increased opposition.

His abuse of the law by demanding the prosecution of his political opponents, going back to the 2020 elections, creates discomfort.

His indifference to Ukraine accompanied by his inexplicable Russian sympathies, his attempt to take Greenland from Denmark, an ally, and, contrary to his promise, his launching the Iran war without consulting Congress or American allies have all faced strong opposition.

His trade policy and his absurd desire to make Canada the 51st state has imposed new costs on American consumers and manufacturers.

His family’s unprecedented and open enrichment by benefitting from his policies and foreign friendships displeases people.

Taken together, these concerns have raised questions even among his core backers that he is losing mental acuity and focusing almost entirely on his personal reputation and legacy.  The prospects for the next two and a-half years are not positive.

If the Massie election reveals GOP disaffection from Trump, it could help elect traditional Republican backers elsewhere, enabling them to gain more influence.  In Congress, that could loosen Trump’s virtually total control and promote compromise.  Trump could be forced to deal with his skeptics and opposition.

Conventional wisdom is that the Democrats should hammer affordability and back away from more controversial issues favored by progressives.  Yet it’s possible that any Democratic vote, moderate or progressive, helps the party, because it is united in its opposition to Trump.

Increasingly, Trump is making himself into the 2026 campaign issue, above even immigration, taxation or Iran.  If Massie wins the Kentucky primary convincingly, that could signal a strong rejection of his MAGA politics.

Looming over this scene is the specter of Hungary’s landslide defeat of right-wing Premier Viktor Orban, who indulged in the same style of governing as Trump.  It would be an almost impossible stretch for the Democrats to gain two-thirds control of Congress as did Orban’s opposition, but they could put the brakes on Trump.

  

Trump is above the law

Trump is above the law

Enforcement is elusive

 

Gordon L. Weil

He broke international law!  He violated the Constitution!

Angered and frustrated by his actions, some of President Trump’s critics and political opponents utter these words.

So what? 

Nothing changes, largely because Trump firmly believes that he is smarter than his opponents and acts within the sweeping immunity the Supreme Court gave him two years ago.  His 2024 election victory makes him an all-powerful president.    

“Law is a system of rules that are created and enforced through social or governmental institutions to regulate behavior.  It is a fundamental aspect of any civilized society, providing the framework within which individuals and entities operate,” says a widely recognized definition.

Trump has said, “I don’t need international law.”  When asked what he would rely upon, he answered, “my own morality, my own mind. It’s the only thing that can stop me.”  Does international law apply?  “It depends on what your [my] definition of international law is.”  

These days, charges fly that Trump violates international law when he threatens Iran, writing, “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.”  It is easy to claim that threat violates international law, but where’s the enforcement?  While international courts exist, the U.S. has not accepted them for most matters.

International law is a collection of formal agreements and widely accepted customs that are meant to “regulate behavior” among nations.  The formal agreements, usually in the form of treaties, obligate the countries that have ratified them.  The customs are determined by their long-term use by a great many nations.

The obvious enforcement mechanism is self-interest.  For example, if a nation does not want foreign vessels within 12 miles of its shores, its boats will not venture that close to the shores of other countries.  Behind that rule is the possibility a coastal state will sink foreign vessels within the limit, an undesirable choice because of its potentially disastrous consequences.

That rule may take the form of a treaty, as it has. The U.S. has not ratified that treaty, but most major countries have.  Not the U.S., which, like China, may ignore it.

In the U.S., a government of laws is replaced by the will of a single person.  The form of government becomes elective authoritarian.

His warnings about leaving NATO become credible.  His threat to erase Iran’s civilization is credible.  Quitting an alliance or exercising coercion, both banned by treaties ratified by the U.S., is not lawful, but he believes he can do it.

If he pursues this belief, the international order fails, at least as far as the U.S. is concerned.  Allies will not support the U.S.  Ultimately, other countries could undertake economic retaliation and refuse to enter other agreements with the U.S.  He provides an incentive for other countries to use the system for their own relations, eventually isolating the U.S.

Trump believes that the U.S., with the foremost military and largest economy, can dictate its terms to the world.  But new trade agreements being reached among other countries and refusals by historic allies to fully back the U.S. in Iran are signs American power is weakening.

Ratified treaties are part of American law that should not be violated, as are the laws enacted by Congress. Yet Trump has often overridden “the supreme law of the land” without suffering any consequences in the U.S.  He can ignore the law in favor of his own “morality,” because his compliant party controls Congress and like-thinkers sit in the Supreme Court majority.

In the absence of court disapproval and congressional independence, he faces only two formal enforcement tools against unlimited power.

Two-thirds of both houses can suspend the president upon the recommendation of the vice president and a cabinet majority. Two-thirds of the Senate can remove the president from office after impeachment by a House majority.  These are drastic and disruptive procedures, unlikely to be used.  Still, Trump fears a third impeachment, which is possible. 

A congressional majority that will exercise control over presidential actions would reflect a national popular sentiment that Trump’s discretion must be limited.  Yet it is extremely unlikely that enough new senators would be elected to provide the two-thirds needed to overcome a presidential veto. 

But either house could reject presidential proposals, including for spending on military operations.  And an opposition majority could deal with the president, approving presidential initiatives in return for concessions or modifications.  This is governing through compromise, just what voters supposedly prefer and as the Framers of the Constitution intended.

In the final analysis, unchecked presidential power has become likely and easy.  Enforcement of the law to force presidential compliance is complex and difficult.  The problem is not about policy, but about process.  The solution comes in electing presidents willing and wise enough to submit to the constitutional process. 

America against itself

 

America against itself

Can the experiment work?

 

Gordon L. Weil

The November congressional elections are widely seen as a referendum on President Trump. 

Will a divided country approve his presidency or try to restrain his actions during his last two years in office.   The choice may turn out to be about the kind of government Americans now want.

In his first Inaugural Address, George Washington said that “the preservation of the sacred fire of liberty, and the destiny of the Republican model of Government, are justly considered as deeply, perhaps as finally, staked on the experiment entrusted to the hands of the American people.”

The age of reason had led to the creation of a republican form of government with power ultimately in the hands of the people.  Breaking with centuries of royal rule, the American system was an “experiment.” 

Ancient thinkers had argued that government by the people would fail.  It could be subverted by a public whose interests and values turned elsewhere, poor leadership, decadence and foreign enemies.

But Americans gradually gained confidence that the experiment could succeed, though two events – the Civil War and the Great Depression – forced restarts in the process.  For almost a century, American history has moved slowly toward making the experiment successful and the model for the world.

In the past 33 years, five presidents have each produced an historic achievement that was evidence of the nation’s continual, if unsteady, progress.

President Bill Clinton led the nation into a period of domestic prosperity and Pax Americana, the maintenance of global peace under its influence, to a post World War II high point. 

President George W. Bush undertook educational reform, expanded Medicare by adding prescription coverage, and made the U.S. the world’s leader in fighting AIDS, a disease that threatened millions.

President Barack Obama symbolized equality and led the creation of a national health insurance program – the Affordable Care Act – that opened medical care to millions who previously could gain only emergency room attention. 

President Donald Trump, faced with a stunning worldwide pandemic, took swift and bold action to encourage the rapid development of Covid vaccines, providing both reassurance and recovery to millions. 

President Joe Biden developed a massive public works program to reverse the downward course of the economy resulting from the Covid pandemic and initiated the largest U.S. effort ever to slow environmental degradation.

None of these presidents was immune from controversy or error, but the system worked to produce progress.

Despite this halting progress, an increasing number of people have come to believe that the government was not working for them.  The representative form of government did not yield an economy in which they could prosper or health care that provided adequate protection.  They see a government responsive to special interests and not to them.

Faith in the American experiment faltered.  Perhaps a strong leader, brushing aside the checks and balances inherent in that experiment, might be better able to produce results.  Donald Trump promised that he could, and a majority of voters accepted those promises.

In the first year of his second term, Trump reversed or drastically reduced virtually all the major accomplishments of recent presidents.  Their aspirations and the normal processes of the America government were replaced by the will of a single person, relying on a single election victory.  The institutions of the federal government yielded to authoritarian innovation.

Democrats, opposing this change, seek to recover their role, presumably believing that they can restore confidence in the American system, because Trump is an aberration, benefitting from frustration that their party can overcome. 

Liberals are convinced their analysis is correct, and the country will come to its senses and return to constitutional traditions.  They fail to understand that MAGA believers are similarly convinced that their view is correct, have written off the experiment and prefer authoritarian rule.

Neither side shows confidence that they represent a strong majority of the people.  The Democrats are split between moderates who believe the country can be put back on track and progressives who want to move the track.  Failure to reconcile this major difference could undermine their chances of regaining power.

The Republican Party is dead, replaced by MAGA partisans, Republicans in name only, who reject the party’s traditional positions on the environment, the economy and public spending.  This GOP tinkers with voter access, trying to cling to office. 

It would be reasonable to conclude that “it must get worse, before it gets better.”  At that point, the people would decide if the experiment can be pursued or if the country reverts to authoritarianism, the historic default.  The alternative to both is chaos.

By imposing his values, cancelling programs, closing agencies, and taking the nation to war, Trump makes his case for ending the experiment.   He may force voters to make their choice on the ballot in November.

Trump threatens total war against Iran

 

Trump threatens total war against Iran

Risks a major conflict

Gordon L. Weil

The U.S. threat to bomb Iran’s electric power plants is an expression of “total war” – a conflict waged against civilian populations.

Total war includes operations going beyond military targets and aimed at harming or killing civilians who are not combatants. Its goal is to turn people against their own government, making them into allies, however unwilling.  They are expected to force their leaders to surrender, bringing people relief from their danger and suffering. 

History up to today is full of examples of the resort to total war.

In 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine.  Russia obviously wanted to turn Ukraine into its satellite, based on Putin’s belief that Ukrainians are really Russians.  He expected an easy victory with the population welcoming Russian control.

Total war can produce an opposite result from what was intended.  Instead of promptly surrendering, Ukrainians revealed a fierce commitment to their country’s political and cultural independence from Russia.  They would pay for their new-found patriotism by having their homes and power plants destroyed. 

Restrained by its American and European backers, Ukraine cannot respond in kind.  But its popular support produces strong resistance, imposing a high cost on Russia.   Russia’s total war strategy may be beyond what it can afford, and it looks likely to fail.

The 2024 Hamas terrorist attack on Israeli civilians was clearly intended to reveal the price Israel would be forced to pay for its Palestine policy.   Innocent civilians were killed, and Hamas took hostages, a move out of the Middle Ages.   If it had more than sheer terrorism as a goal, it might have expected fearful Israelis to pressure their government to alter its policy.

Instead, the country unified by attempting to eliminate Hamas.  No room was left for negotiations.  But Israel, too, resorted to total war.  Without offering evidence, it alleged that civilian institutions, including hospitals, were Hamas bases.  Its attacks were aimed at turning civilians against Hamas, which exercised absolute administrative and military control.

Ultimately, Israel shifted to the all-out destruction of Gaza.  Its actions went far beyond punishing Gaza and extended to an assault on innocent Palestinians there, presumably because they had accepted Hamas domination.  Total punishment was the product of total war.

Last week, Israel extended its total war strategy to Lebanon.  By evacuating hundreds of thousands from the south and bombing Beirut, it seemed to be trying to get the Lebanese to turn against Hezbollah and expel it.   To achieve this objective, it invaded a country with which it is not at war.

In the Iran war, both the U.S. and Israel have said they want regime change.  Based on previous anti-government demonstrations, they seem to believe that they can create the conditions for a successful uprising by attacking civilian life.    UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk reports that aerial attacks increasingly focus on areas in Iran that are densely populated. 

Iran has closed the essential oil supply route at the Straits of Hormuz.  To retaliate, Trump would engage in total war.  The principal victims of an American attack on electric supply would be civilians and institutions like schools and hospitals that depend on reliable power.   Iran would retaliate against civilian installations in Middle East countries aligned with the U.S.

Total war is not traditionally a part of American policy.  In World War II, the U.S. would not engage in British-style area bombing at night, clearly designed to demoralize and harm civilians, but instead used precision daylight bombing of military targets.

Contrary to this American policy, the U.S. would now resort to total war. Even more worrisome, with Israel, it would extend this war over a wide area with the risk that its scope could not be fully limited.   This is how regional conflicts can become major wars.

Trump once criticized Ukraine President Zelenskyy, claiming that he had started the war with Russia, because he refused to turn over land Putin demanded.  He said, “Listen, when you start a war, you got to know that you can win the war, right?”

Attacking Iran, Trump said, "What we did in Venezuela, I think, is … the perfect scenario."  Iran could be a quick victory, producing a government acceptable to the U.S.  Then, he discovered his belief in a short war and easy victory was overly optimistic.

Instead of returning to negotiations, Trump escalates the war.  His frustration has led him to the brink of total war and to the possible unpopular and dangerous deployment of American ground troops.

As the war deepens, so do economic problems in the U.S. and elsewhere, and political concerns grow among his own backers.  He needlessly alienates European allies by criticizing their insufficient support, when they might have helped give him cover in backing off the war.

Whatever the embarrassment, Trump needs to quickly find a way out.  Total war must be off the table.

Trump’s mythical mandate for war

 

Trump’s mythical mandate for war

‘Unprecedented’ victory?

 

Gordon L. Weil

President Trump justifies his broad assertion of authority to wage war against Iran or abolish entire agencies of government by his election victory claim that “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate.”

He sees his supposedly crushing victory as authorization by the American people of his exercise of extraordinary powers.  Or he knows that his win was not particularly unusual, but believes that he can spin the result by boldly asserting a false claim.   Then, it’s carpe diem – seize the day – and make the most of your opportunity without much thought for the future.

That explains the Iran war.  He thought he could win quickly and did not worry about the long-running economic crisis that his war could create

Karoline Leavitt, his highly promotional press secretary, touted that, “the American people gave President Trump an overwhelming mandate.”

That he could live off his self-proclaimed mandate came from the acquiescence of intimidated congressional Republicans.  “We have taken back control of the Senate. Wow, that’s great,” he proclaimed post-election.

In short, his presidential actions, ignoring historic constitutional practices, are justified by the “unprecedented,” “powerful” and “overwhelming” mandate he received.  

Something is “unprecedented,” when there is no previous example of it.  Implied in his claim was that his victory was by the largest margin ever and that he swept his party into unusually taking control of both houses of Congress.    

What are the facts about the mandate that is the basis of his power?

● Margin of victory.  In 2024, Trump’s popular vote margin was the smallest since 1968.  In the 13 elections over the 52 years beginning with the 1972 contest, no margin of victory in the popular vote had been as narrow as his in 2024.

● Congressional coattails.  A presidential winner being accompanied by the congressional victory of his own party has happened six times since the 1980 election of President Carter, including Trump’s own 2016 election.  Only one of the six retained his party’s congressional majority in the following mid-terms: Carter in 1982.   So, the Senate win was virtually routine.

● The Trump world interprets his 2024 election as an act of the “American people”.   His win did not produce an “overwhelming” or “unprecedented” result, and it was hardly the voice of the American people?  Here’s the data.

            Citizen population aged 18 and older      236 million

            Registered voters                                     174 million     73.6% of total 18+ population

            Voters                                                        154 million    63.7% of registered voters

            Voted for Trump                                          77 million     49.8% of voters

Among all citizens 18 and over, Trump received 32.6% support.

● Number of votes.   Trump did not achieve the greatest number of popular votes for president; Joe Biden did in 2020. 

● Electoral vote.  Presidents Reagan, Clinton and Obama (twice) had bigger electoral vote margins.

The claim that Trump won unprecedented, overwhelming support from the American people is false.  He clearly won the election, but he has used his appraisal of the result as authority for the virtually unlimited use of presidential powers, as he understands them. 

Further, the voters who supported him count as the American people; everybody else is not.  He says he “hates” those who did not support him and misuses his power to go after them.

His four-year mandate misrepresents the political will of a plurality of voters, expressed through an election on a single day.   Their political act, misrepresented by him, can only be reversed or confirmed through political action.

One alternative would be impeachment by the House and conviction by the Senate.   Trump fears impeachment for a third time, which indeed would be unprecedented. 

He strives to retain control of the House, though his methods involve unusual mid-census redistricting and an ongoing effort to reduce the electorate by false claims of fraud.   He must win in the House to prevent impeachment.  This may be a tough challenge given his unpopularity in the polls.   

If impeached, he is unlikely to be convicted in the Senate.  That would require the votes of 67 senators, and that could only result from a huge landslide defeat for the Republicans.  GOP senators would be unlikely to break ranks.   It’s inconceivable that there would be enough Democrats and Independents next year to produce the majority needed to convict.

Still, the alternative could come at the ballot box in November.  The congressional elections emerge more as a referendum on Trump than as a routine collection of partisan, local contests.  The Democrats could take control of the House (likely) and perhaps also the Senate (increasingly possible).

Seats can flip if voters want to impose limits on Trump’s powers and to shift Washington’s focus to affordability issues.  Or they could confirm that they want more authoritarian rule.  Either way, Trump might then learn the true extent of his mandate.