Maine U.S. Senate race: Collins-Mills for the swing seat

 

Gordon L. Weil

Susan Collins now has her chance for her place in history. 

No, it wouldn’t be from being elected six times to the U.S. Senate.  It would arise from her taking a stand in favor of traditional American and Republican values.   She should show courage and principle even if it brings crude denunciation by President Trump.

Sen. Collins has prided herself on being a moderate Republican, true to the values of limited government, free enterprise with a commitment to equal rights and environmental protection. She comes from a Maine political family closely identified with that brand of Republicanism.

Donald Trump has stolen that party away from her.  The Trump GOP has crushed her ambition to become a major influence on public policy in the Senate, while reducing her power by using the functionally stunted Republican Senate to rubber stamp his policies.  The only use the GOP and its president have for Collins is her vote to maintain his unquestioned control of the Senate.

Collins has made political sacrifices to advance the interests of the nation and Maine and her political career.  When her integrity clashes with Trump’s excesses, she temporizes by cloaking her positions in expedience or dubious superior knowledge, as compared with the rest of us, of how the system really works.

She occasionally breaks with Trump and his demands for blind loyalty, and that is to be commended.  But she seldom either recruits support or casts the deciding vote.  This is leadership by gesture, not by consistent and assertive application of her principles.

Maine and the country may be shortchanged by her approach.  Now is the time that demands her vindicating the courage of her convictions as a moderate or being held accountable for having misled us about her principles.

She likes recalling the story of Sen. Margaret Chase Smith’s Declaration of Conscience, her public stand against Joe McCarthy, a Republican colleague intent on destroying political decency.  That took courage, yet she made a partisan speech, making clear her belief that real Republicanism could defeat the Democrats without McCarthy’s vitriol.

Margaret Chase Smith ultimately lost re-election.  But her electoral defeat is not what we remember.  Her assured place in history derives from that single statement of her principles in defiance of her party.

The nation needs a functioning two-party system, operating through compromise. The majority party should dominate decision making, but it should accommodate views of the minority to promote a sense of unity of purpose.

Instead, we have a nation divided.  The two sides appear beyond any hope of compromise. The war is on, not only for this presidential term, but for the indefinite future. 

The Democrats are dazed by finding themselves in this situation and remain unable to pull themselves together with a coherent policy under strong leadership.  While the times demand a bold alternative to Trump, they rely simply on the slim hope that opposition to him and his ego-based politics will produce their electoral victory. 

The country not only needs the Democrats to find themselves but the recovery of the traditional Republican Party.  If this is the great nation that we believe it is, that’s the result of the historical interaction of the two parties.  The nation needs two strong political parties; neither now qualifies.

Susan Collins can do more for her country by keeping the spark of Republicanism alive and giving it oxygen than by mere futile gestures.  She may not turn the Party around, but in the current crisis, she can play a strong, visible and independent role in preserving and promoting the traditional GOP.

 

Collins v. Democrats

The Trump Republican Party is likely to see Collin’s situation differently.  It wants to retain at least 51 seats in the U.S. Senate to ensure that the president can pursue his personal agenda without interference from Congress.  That’s the same reason for the Texas redistricting aimed at picking up five more GOP House seats, which otherwise might fall under Democratic control.

Collins is not loyal by Trump standards, though she has either backed him on critical matters or opposed him with meaningless opposition when he could prevail without her.  But she casts one critical vote – to keep the Trump Republicans in control of the Senate.  It is doubtful if Maine could find another person who could hold the seat for the GOP.

That means the Maine campaign could boil down to a single question: which party will control the Senate?  If it’s the GOP, Trump could have a blank check for his entire second term.  If it’s the Democrats, he may be held to account or face somewhat limited powers.   

The challenge for the Democrats is simple.  They need to find a candidate who can defeat Collins.  She successfully overwhelms lesser-known candidates.   Polls showing her popularity is fading are not a basis for Democratic optimism.

The best hope for the Democrats is Gov. Janet Mills.  She is widely known and is more favorably viewed by Maine voters than Collins.  She is a right-of-center Democrat, entitling her to be considered a moderate.  With the chance to defeat Collins, liberal Democrats would likely support her, despite past differences.

The problem with Mills is her age, now 77.  She would be the oldest new senator ever; she would begin when most senators retire.  With Sen. King at 80, Maine would probably have the most geriatric U.S. Senate duo ever.

The Democrats could elect the next governor at the same time as a Mills’ victory, who could appoint her replacement, if necessary.  To ensure their hold on the Senate seat, the Democrats would need the next governor to serve as their insurance policy.

No matter the governor’s affiliation, the Legislature could adopt a law requiring that any replacement must belong to the same party as a departing senator, as is done in 10 states. 

In either case, Mills could serve less than a full term, secure in the knowledge that her seat would go to another Democrat.  (The Legislature could also require a special election to fill a vacancy, as is done in five states.)

America's secret police and 'shadow' court

Gordon L. Weil

1. Lt. Columbo, one of the most famous television police officers, always identified himself and showed his credentials.  There’s a reason that police officers wear badges, so it was routine for him and almost all officers to identify themselves.

The purpose of the Constitution is to protect people from an overzealous government that might trample on their “inalienable rights.”  The badge identifies the police to a person who they approach and gives that person a means to take action against an abuse of their authority.  It can limit arbitrary police action and promote accountability.

But agents of Immigration and Customs Enforcement show no identification, even wearing no insignia on their uniforms.  This American secret police wears face masks.  It is impossible to know if a person is being accosted by an authorized law enforcement agent or a thug.  ICE says they need to be protected from illegal immigrants.  Children?  University graduate students? People asking who they are and risking arrest for impeding them?

This looks remarkably like a policy that says a national emergency allows the government to ignore the Constitution.  That document is not meant only for use on sunny days; it’s meant for any day.

2. President Trump is hailed for getting NATO allies to agree to match the American spending of five percent of GDP on defense.  The U.S. is a continental nation, unlike all NATO members except Canada.  It must maintain a two-ocean defense plus a presence elsewhere.  That’s not true for Belgium or Spain.  Maybe one size does not fit all.

Besides, five percent, like so many other rules, is based on the number of fingers on the human hand.  When Spain says it can meet the alliance’s obligations applying to it, but at a lower cost, the NATO Secretary General, a total Trump fan, flatly says they can’t.  That raises the question if member countries even have specific military obligations to the alliance or just a budget commitment to keep Trump satisfied and on board.  Maybe we don’t have to see them, but we need evidence they exist.

3. Maine Sen. Susan Collins was one of only three GOP senators to vote against the One Big Beautiful Bill.  Her risk-taking deserves credit.

Some of her Maine critics allege that she takes on the president when she knows it won’t influence the outcome.  Did she know that Alaska’s Murkowski, normally her ally, would vote for the bill?

Collins is proud to chair the once-powerful Appropriations Committee, a post which requires her to show GOP loyalty.  But her committee was entirely bypassed by the OBBB.  It had no visible say on any appropriations in the bill; Collins was just another face in the Republican crowd.

North Carolina’s GOP Sen. Thom Tillis was so unhappy with Washington events, that he chose not to run next year for a third term.  Collins seems to be moving toward seeking a sixth term, more than any senator from Maine has ever had.  Her place in history might be better if she showed more independence and either chose not to run or accepted the risk of defeat.  Margaret Chase Smith is well remembered, but she lost her last race for the Senate.

4. Trump likes to count people like the leaders of Russia, China and North Vietnam as his friends.  Maybe he thinks that will flatter them.  Maybe he thinks that, in his select group of friends, he will be respected and get results.  For him, world politics is personal.

He may be missing out on history.  The other chiefs are not wheeling and dealing; they are pursuing centuries-old goals and relationships.  Trump simply does not have the educational background to know where they are coming from.  He does not get results as he might in a purely business deal.

Maybe the authoritarians think they can string him along so that they can pursue their ambitions without his interference?  We’ve heard of the “fog of war.”  How about their “fog of false friendship?”

5. The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded by a select group of five Norwegians.  Often, the Prize reflects the idealism of Alfred Nobel or the political values of Norway.  For example, the 1935 Prize went to an imprisoned German journalist who had been critical of illegal Nazi rearmament.  And it doesn’t usually go to peace mediators, but rather to the parties that have agreed to make peace.  Negotiations are rewarded more often than surrenders after being bombed.

Trump has been nominated for the Prize by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for whom the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant to face charges of responsibility for war crimes.

Taking this all together, it’s doubtful Trump will be invited to Oslo in December.

6. A Supreme Court “shadow docket” decision just allowed Trump to reorganize the federal government and lay off thousands of workers until such time as the Court decides if what he has done was allowed by law.  By that time, Trump will have reshaped the government without congressional approval, in effect overriding its decisions.

Thus, what is served up as a procedural decision, overriding the detailed analysis by a district court without providing any substance, has the effect of a major ruling.  In the unlikely case that the Supreme Court were persuaded by the lower court’s ultimate ruling, its decision would amount to locking the barn door after the horse is stolen.

Either it should have taken the case, heard arguments, and made a reasoned decision or it should have left the temporary stay in place until the district court did its job.  That court could have been given a limited time to produce an appealable decision. Instead, the Supreme Court continued rubberstamping presidential actions without any sign of serious consideration.

The shadow docket – decisions without reasons – are a cause for public losing confidence in the Court.

Biden, if he had determined that he was retiring after one term, might have tried to restore some balance to the Court by “packing” it?  Instead, he was sure he would win, so did nothing to undermine what he thought was his popularity. 

Big Beautiful Bill opponents: right thing for right reason

 

Gordon L. Weil

If you oppose him, it isn’t like swimming against the tide.  It’s like swimming against a tsunami.

The One Big Beautiful Bill, President’s Trumps hoped-for legislative triumph, will happen in some form.  He probably doesn’t care what form, so long as it happens.  If you get in his way, you may be drowned.

Two senators opposed the bill for the right reason.  It would deprive hundreds of thousands of people in both of their states of Medicaid, health care for people who otherwise cannot afford it.  Trump has promised to protect Medicaid, but the only way he could get the tax cuts he wanted had to come at its expense.

Thom Tillis, the Republican senator from North Carolina, could not accept that 663,000 people from his state would lose health care coverage.  Trump’s response was to attack him and threaten to have a MAGA candidate challenge him in the GOP primary next year.

Tillis stuck to his position and said he would not run for reelection.  His move might be interpreted as giving in to threats, but he made it clear that he was tired of the loss of bipartisanship in Congress.  He preferred to walk away from political extremism, just as had Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe.  There must be more to life than constant conflict.

That made Tillis’ decision the right thing to do and for the right reason.

He will leave after serving two terms in the Senate.  If time in government is meant to be public service rather than building a career in politics, his decision amounted to a self-imposed term limit. 

Susan Collins, Maine’s Republican senator, voted against the OBBB, mainly because of its harmful effect on 400,000 Maine people.  She tried to amend the bill to deal with the problem, but was soundly defeated with only a few poor states helping her.   After that, because she’s up for re-election next year, her vote in opposition was a good political move.

Trump had little chance of opposing Collins, so she could afford to take a stand against him. At 72, she should be retiring after five terms, but, unlike Tillis, she wants to stay.  Supporting him would have made her more vulnerable to a Democratic challenger.    

Tillis did the right thing for the right reason.  While hoping for a political reward, Collins also did the right thing.  Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski, usually a Collins ally, was bought off by adding even more debt to the deal.

A word must be written about Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, the third GOP senator to break with the president.  He opposes increasing the federal debt, which the OBBB not only did, but used dishonest accounting.  He stuck to principles closely identified with him and refused to be swept under by Trump’s tidal wave.  He showed integrity.

In the end, that’s what it boils down to.  The disastrous and dishonest OBBB, a jumble of conservative causes piling up more debt, led some members of Congress who could have resisted Trump and forced through a better bill to abandon their integrity.