Showing posts with label NATO. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NATO. Show all posts

Friday, September 19, 2025

Putin can win in Ukraine

 

Gordon L. Weil

Putin is poised to achieve his key objectives in invading Ukraine.  His goals were to reverse its growing alignment with the West and to recover Russian-speaking areas in the eastern part of the country.

He had thought so little of Ukraine that he believed he would have an easy victory, possibly taking over the government and most territory.  But both Russia and the U.S. were surprised by Ukraine’s ability to resist.  Russia committed itself to fight on, even as the conflict turned into war, and the U.S. provided essential arms and munitions to Ukraine.

The U.S. and Europe were alarmed by the resurgence of aggression in Europe, and the countries there feared that Russian ambitions could extend further unless halted in Ukraine.  Under Biden, the U.S. shared their concern and determination to repel Russia.

Putin was willing to cover his bet and make almost limitless sacrifices to pursue Ukraine.  The Europeans committed to resist, but their military strength and armaments are limited and mostly dedicated to their own defenses.  They supply as much as they can, often acquired from the U.S. for hard cash.

Both Finland, with an extensive Russian border, and Sweden joined NATO.  While these developments might seem to be a setback to Putin, he appeared surprisingly unflustered.  His reaction may be the result of conclusions that events led him to draw about NATO.

As Europe tried to respond to what it saw as a real threat, it became clear that few of the 32 NATO members have military forces that can project itself beyond their own national borders.  Only Turkey, France and the U.K. have the forces under arms and the armaments needed for foreign deployment. 

France and the U.K., both nuclear states, have been creating a voluntary coalition of willing countries that would contribute forces to provide a barrier to Russian incursions into Ukraine after an end to hostilities.  But this coalition would not engage in any combat on its own.  Other European countries are providing arms support and funding.

The Europeans have also pressed hard for sanctions, which appear to have some effect on Russia. But, given its autocratic regime, its people have no choice but to make the sacrifices Putin demands of them.  So, he can maintain his offensive.

Because Putin has come to understand that NATO is reluctant to directly confront Russia, he enjoys a significant military advantage.  He can attack Ukraine without worrying about major retaliation against Russian territory.  Plus, he makes vague nuclear threats that the West won’t answer in kind.

Ukraine effectively uses its drones to attack Russian military and energy sites.  But it remains under relentless attack and needs outside support.

Keeping the war going, Putin still pursues a neutral and weak Ukraine, vulnerable to a later wave of Russian aggression.   That’s why he opposes the Coalition of the Willing forces, even only as peacekeepers, being installed in Ukraine.  He may believe that the Europeans will both understand their own limits, as he does, and grow tired of a multi-year war.

The missing piece is, of course, the U.S.  It has gone from the staunchest backer of Ukraine to an American enigma.  Trump had planned on a quick swap of Ukraine land for Russia’s ending its military action. But Putin had higher hopes, and Ukraine’s Zelenskyy could not cede territory for a Trump-made deal with no long-term protection.

When that concept failed, Trump implied that the U.S. might step up its military backing for Ukraine.  At times, however, he reduced such support and now demands payment for any arms that would be supplied.

Trump has applied sanctions against Russia, even going so far as to use them against its oil customers, notably India.  The Europeans want more pressure, and Trump indicated that he might be willing to follow their lead.  So far, nothing more has apparently happened.

He has been even careful about backstopping coalition forces if matters ever progressed to a ceasefire.  Without U.S. support, the coalition guarantee to Ukraine would be worth little.

Putin can see NATO for what it’s worth, not much of a threat and perhaps even vulnerable.  He has just begun testing Polish defenses.  Given the overwhelming influence of the U.S. in the alliance, coupled with Trump’s reluctance to act, Putin may worry less about the West and perhaps launch more unanswered incursions, while still hiding behind Russia’s borders.

Why Trump seems so impressed and influenced by Putin remains unknown, yet it is the key to saving both Ukraine and NATO.  Trump was right to push the NATO allies to do much more, but that alone is not enough.  It still comes back to him.

NATO without Trump, as it well might be, meets Putin’s goal.  So does Ukraine without Trump.

The game’s not over, but right now, Putin’s winning.

 


Wednesday, July 9, 2025

America's secret police and 'shadow' court


Gordon L. Weil

1. Lt. Columbo, one of the most famous television police officers, always identified himself and showed his credentials.  There’s a reason that police officers wear badges, so it was routine for him and almost all officers to identify themselves.

The purpose of the Constitution is to protect people from an overzealous government that might trample on their “inalienable rights.”  The badge identifies the police to a person who they approach and gives that person a means to take action against an abuse of their authority.  It can limit arbitrary police action and promote accountability.

But agents of Immigration and Customs Enforcement show no identification, even wearing no insignia on their uniforms.  This American secret police wears face masks.  It is impossible to know if a person is being accosted by an authorized law enforcement agent or a thug.  ICE says they need to be protected from illegal immigrants.  Children?  University graduate students? People asking who they are and risking arrest for impeding them?

This looks remarkably like a policy that says a national emergency allows the government to ignore the Constitution.  That document is not meant only for use on sunny days; it’s meant for any day.

2. President Trump is hailed for getting NATO allies to agree to match the American spending of five percent of GDP on defense.  The U.S. is a continental nation, unlike all NATO members except Canada.  It must maintain a two-ocean defense plus a presence elsewhere.  That’s not true for Belgium or Spain.  Maybe one size does not fit all.

Besides, five percent, like so many other rules, is based on the number of fingers on the human hand.  When Spain says it can meet the alliance’s obligations applying to it, but at a lower cost, the NATO Secretary General, a total Trump fan, flatly says they can’t.  That raises the question if member countries even have specific military obligations to the alliance or just a budget commitment to keep Trump satisfied and on board.  Maybe we don’t have to see them, but we need evidence they exist.

3. Maine Sen. Susan Collins was one of only three GOP senators to vote against the One Big Beautiful Bill.  Her risk-taking deserves credit.

Some of her Maine critics allege that she takes on the president when she knows it won’t influence the outcome.  Did she know that Alaska’s Murkowski, normally her ally, would vote for the bill?

Collins is proud to chair the once-powerful Appropriations Committee, a post which requires her to show GOP loyalty.  But her committee was entirely bypassed by the OBBB.  It had no visible say on any appropriations in the bill; Collins was just another face in the Republican crowd.

North Carolina’s GOP Sen. Thom Tillis was so unhappy with Washington events, that he chose not to run next year for a third term.  Collins seems to be moving toward seeking a sixth term, more than any senator from Maine has ever had.  Her place in history might be better if she showed more independence and either chose not to run or accepted the risk of defeat.  Margaret Chase Smith is well remembered, but she lost her last race for the Senate.

4. Trump likes to count people like the leaders of Russia, China and North Vietnam as his friends.  Maybe he thinks that will flatter them.  Maybe he thinks that, in his select group of friends, he will be respected and get results.  For him, world politics is personal.

He may be missing out on history.  The other chiefs are not wheeling and dealing; they are pursuing centuries-old goals and relationships.  Trump simply does not have the educational background to know where they are coming from.  He does not get results as he might in a purely business deal.

Maybe the authoritarians think they can string him along so that they can pursue their ambitions without his interference?  We’ve heard of the “fog of war.”  How about their “fog of false friendship?”

5. The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded by a select group of five Norwegians.  Often, the Prize reflects the idealism of Alfred Nobel or the political values of Norway.  For example, the 1935 Prize went to an imprisoned German journalist who had been critical of illegal Nazi rearmament.  And it doesn’t usually go to peace mediators, but rather to the parties that have agreed to make peace.  Negotiations are rewarded more often than surrenders after being bombed.

Trump has been nominated for the Prize by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for whom the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant to face charges of responsibility for war crimes.

Taking this all together, it’s doubtful Trump will be invited to Oslo in December.

6. A Supreme Court “shadow docket” decision just allowed Trump to reorganize the federal government and lay off thousands of workers until such time as the Court decides if what he has done was allowed by law.  By that time, Trump will have reshaped the government without congressional approval, in effect overriding its decisions.

Thus, what is served up as a procedural decision, overriding the detailed analysis by a district court without providing any substance, has the effect of a major ruling.  In the unlikely case that the Supreme Court were persuaded by the lower court’s ultimate ruling, its decision would amount to locking the barn door after the horse is stolen.

Either it should have taken the case, heard arguments, and made a reasoned decision or it should have left the temporary stay in place until the district court did its job.  That court could have been given a limited time to produce an appealable decision. Instead, the Supreme Court continued rubberstamping presidential actions without any sign of serious consideration.

The shadow docket – decisions without reasons – are a cause for public losing confidence in the Court.

Biden, if he had determined that he was retiring after one term, might have tried to restore some balance to the Court by “packing” it?  Instead, he was sure he would win, so did nothing to undermine what he thought was his popularity.