Sen. Collins meets the common man

Sen. Collins meets the common man

Big money, big attacks coming

 

Gordon L. Weil

Gov. Janet Mills left the Maine Democratic Senate primary race, and the pundits flooded the media with their opinions.

Her story fit their story: the Democratic Party is split between traditional moderates and leftwing progressives.   Her withdrawal showed the progressives are gaining.

The pundits may have been partly correct, but that’s not the whole story.  The split was more practical than ideological.  The dominant question was not about the direction of the Democratic Party, but who had the best chance of defeating Sen. Susan Collins.

The almost automatic response was that Mills, a proven statewide winner with high name recognition, was the ideal candidate to end Collins’ hold on the Senate seat.  Undoubtedly, that led Sen. Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, to endorse Mills, but it proved to be too simple a theory.

Sen. Susan Collins usually looks vulnerable to a Democratic challenger, but always wins.  This year, for the first time, with Mills out, she will face a candidate who has not previously held public office – an outsider.   Mills gave way to Graham Platner, an oyster farmer who never held a higher office than harbormaster.

Mills got into the race late.  Collins, who too often had supported President Trump, was losing her reputation as a rare GOP moderate.   Mills, as a two-time statewide winner, could have calculated that her right-of-center record and high voter recognition would give her an advantage.  Platner, already running, could be easily defeated.

She might have believed that she could readily assemble a coalition of coastal liberal voters and her more inland moderate constituents.  After all, that has worked in the Legislature while she’s been governor. 

But Mainers, like people elsewhere, are increasingly dissatisfied with the failure of government, federal or state, to improve their lives.  Collins could bring home Capitol largesse, but a new dock or dam doesn’t put food on the table or gas in the tank.

This sentiment suggests voter despair with both parties.  Voters say they want a candidate who expresses independence from the system.   Sen. Angus King may be an independent, but he comes across as a conventional Democrat. 

Platner appears as bold, basic and original.  His personal defects have emerged, notably a tattoo linked to Nazi symbols and his negative posts about women and even lobstermen.  He readily admits his errors, attributing them to a heedless youth.  Though virtually sure to win, he still faces a respectable, but unfunded, primary opponent.

Collins campaign allies are already attacking him for these faults, but the Democrats seem undeterred.  Since candidate Trump survived his Access Hollywood remarks about grabbing women, voters may have come to ignore the past failings of candidates whose politics they prefer.

The pundits focus on Maine as a purple state – one that could swing between the red GOP and the blue Dems.  One of its two congressional districts has voted for Trump each election.  That might raise doubts about Platner, backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, when facing a statewide electorate.

Trump’s popularity has reflected discontent with government among many Second District rural voters, but he may have lost some appeal.  He backs a candidate in the GOP governor’s primary and has attracted massive financing for him, which pays for a big media buy.  But, at this stage, he is still trailing a more traditional conservative.

Many Democrats saw Mills as too right-of-center.  She opposed the creation of a system of public defenders, though Maine was the last state without one.  She later gave some ground.  Just before her departure, she vetoed a Democratic move to suspend approval of any data centers in the state, which would have set Maine apart.

At 78, Mills’ age counted against her.  She would have been the oldest first-year senator ever.  King, the other Maine senator, is 82.  Maine has the oldest median age, and many seniors are aware of the limits imposed by age when working the long hours required by public life.

Collins, 73, faces age and possibly a health issue, a “benign essential tremor.”  No Mainer has ever served six terms in the U.S. Senate, as she would.  Platner, 41, is slightly younger than the state’s median age of 45.  He will face relentless attacks focusing on his past.  Collins may have some deniability, if her campaign does not directly sponsor the ads.

Her split-the-difference form of moderation will be weakened by her having backed Trump’s cabinet nominations and key policies.  She rarely differs with the president when it counts.

The Maine GOP is divided between moderates and conservatives.   Collins may have miscalculated that she can still hold onto both Rockefeller Republicans and MAGA Trumpers.   She clings to her Senate seat, unlike Olympia Snowe, a GOP moderate who retired gracefully.  Platner may be strong competition in a down year.

Let the campaign cash flow.

 

 

  

The big gap is not wealth, but age

 

Gordon L. Weil

Last week, eight Democratic U.S. senators broke ranks with their party and voted to end the government shutdown.  In return, they got a weak promise for a later vote on health insurance. 

To some, it looked like “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.”  By hanging tough, the Democrats could have forced the GOP to agree to help for ACA beneficiaries.   Instead, they gave up all leverage.

The Democrats’ split and its political implications ignored its underlying message about the state of American politics.

The average age of all defecting senators is about 70 and six are eligible for Medicare (plus the federal government’s own employee coverage).  The oldest is Maine’s Angus King, who is 81.  The 22 million people adversely affected by the ACA cuts, resulting from an earlier Republican budget bill, are not eligible for Medicare.  They are too young.

The big gap in the U.S. is supposedly the wealthy and everybody else.  But an even bigger gap may exist between the old and everybody else.  The Senate vote may be a good indicator of how much a geriatric Congress is out of touch with the needs and worries of most Americans.

The U.S. is a gerontocracy.  The current Congress is the third-oldest in American history.  The average age of senators is about 64.  The median age of all Americans is 39.

Surveys show that most Americans are not satisfied with the government, but there is little action to modify and improve the system.  Some may believe that the inherent strength of the political system will restore a government that will again merit their trust.  But many seem to feel they must make the best of an increasingly authoritarian regime.

That may not be true of the new, young voters.  They believe that the government fails in dealing with the public’s needs for health care, housing and income support.  That is the similarity between recently elected New Your Mayor Zohran Mamdani and right-wing influencer Nick Fuentes.  Though one thinks it does too little and other that it does too much.

Mamdani favors a government large enough to provide the resources to meet those needs.  Fuentes wants less government.  Mamdani personifies a government reflecting diverse groups in society.  Fuentes espouses racist policies and wants to turn control over entirely to white, Christian men.

Unlike most of the older generation, young activists like these know their way around the new media.  They have escaped the world of traditional journalism and network television for social media and influencers.  They want to be seen as people like their young constituents in their personal taste and familiarity with popular culture.

They want to exploit the frustration of young people which appears to be bringing them increasingly into the political process.  Their participation is putting politics in a different light.

The Republicans have largely become loyal followers of Trump.  Whatever he wants, however erratic, becomes their policy, and many hurry to develop rationales for his personal preferences.  The Democrats have largely become nothing more than the Trump opposition.  They believe that he will offend so many Americans, that, even without offering cogent alternatives, they will win.

In neither party, does the current political leadership actually lead.  The complacent GOP and the cowering Dems can come up with nothing innovative.

In contrast, the new, young activists have proposals.  The Democrats promote universal health care, civil rights and reducing climate change.  Oddly, their oracle is an old man, Sen. Bernie Sanders.  The MAGA influencers propose to dismantle much of the government and return to a society in which privilege ruled.  Oddly, their oracle is an old man, Trump.

The young Democrats are a key component of their party’s Progressive wing, which seeks to make their proposals the central element of the Democratic platform.  They believe that the moderate Democrats are not responding to public needs.  Mamdani’s win encourages them to believe they are gaining momentum.

The young Trump Republicans are at the extreme of the MAGA faithful.  They call Democratic proposals for government policy a socialist conspiracy.  They oppose the growing role of women and non-whites in government.  The reaction to the assassination of Charlie Kirk encourages them to believe they can reach more people with a nationalist message.

Neither the young Progressive Democrats or the extreme MAGA Republicans are likely to prevail.  But they can pull each of the parties somewhat closer to their views and serve as a powerful political influence.  Each lays the groundwork for their future growth.

The old guard leading the parties misses the appeal of the young activists to many average voters who share their belief that the government has failed and cannot be trusted.  Their outmoded perspective prevents them from accepting demands for change.

Clearly, it’s time for new and younger leadership that can listen better. 

 

 

 

Maine Gov. Mills wants Collins' Senate seat

 

Gordon L. Weil

The formal announcement Tuesday by Maine Gov. Janet Mills that she will seek the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Republican Susan Collins deserves attention.

Collins’ skill consists in convincing Maine voters she’s a moderate.  But her support for some of Trump’s actions and appointments look less like her traditional balancing between two sides and more like temporizing.  Her support for Justice Kavanaugh and Secretary Kennedy work against her.  The political situation has become too dire for some voters to accept her usual approach.

Mills is a right of center Democrat in a state that is majority Democratic with a heavy concentration in the southern First C.D. and a smaller GOP preference in the Second C.D.  By her own balancing, she has managed to rile some liberal Democrats.  Whether she has pleased more conservative voters remains to be seen.

Mills is 77 years old.  She would be the oldest first-year senator ever.  Even if candidates soft- peddle the age issue, it is sure to be a factor.  Collins is 72 and Sen. Angus King is 80.  Mills has been endorsed by Sen. Chuck Schumer, which probably means little in Maine, though it tells you something about how he sees his role.

She will face a primary challenge next June from several declared candidates.  Right now, Graham Platner, an oyster farm operator, veteran and local official, seems to be the most serious. He’s raising money and has the strong backing of Sen. Bernie Sanders.  Could Platner be Maine’s Mamdani (though less progressive)?

In some ways, the outcome of a Mills-Platner contest could suggest the direction of the Democrats.  Younger voters may want a change from the usual balancing by the state’s major politicians.  For example, in the two state referendums this fall, Mills opposes GOP efforts to make voting more difficult, and opposes a red flag law. That’s one for each side. 

Maine will be a money magnet.  The referendums are attracting major funding as will the Democratic primaries for Senate and governor.  Of course, the GOP will go all out for Collins, a possible key to their holding their Senate majority.

Collins, even when she starts out with low poll numbers, has succeeded in defeating relatively weak Democratic candidates.  This year, Mills, who has won two state-wide elections for governor and is well-known, is a different kind of challenger with a track record.  Collins has not yet announced that she’s running.

Are the times right for Mills rolling to primary and election wins?  Could be, but watch for the Democratic left and if Collins can sustain her appeal as a moderate.

Maine U.S. Senate race: Collins-Mills for the swing seat

 

Gordon L. Weil

Susan Collins now has her chance for her place in history. 

No, it wouldn’t be from being elected six times to the U.S. Senate.  It would arise from her taking a stand in favor of traditional American and Republican values.   She should show courage and principle even if it brings crude denunciation by President Trump.

Sen. Collins has prided herself on being a moderate Republican, true to the values of limited government, free enterprise with a commitment to equal rights and environmental protection. She comes from a Maine political family closely identified with that brand of Republicanism.

Donald Trump has stolen that party away from her.  The Trump GOP has crushed her ambition to become a major influence on public policy in the Senate, while reducing her power by using the functionally stunted Republican Senate to rubber stamp his policies.  The only use the GOP and its president have for Collins is her vote to maintain his unquestioned control of the Senate.

Collins has made political sacrifices to advance the interests of the nation and Maine and her political career.  When her integrity clashes with Trump’s excesses, she temporizes by cloaking her positions in expedience or dubious superior knowledge, as compared with the rest of us, of how the system really works.

She occasionally breaks with Trump and his demands for blind loyalty, and that is to be commended.  But she seldom either recruits support or casts the deciding vote.  This is leadership by gesture, not by consistent and assertive application of her principles.

Maine and the country may be shortchanged by her approach.  Now is the time that demands her vindicating the courage of her convictions as a moderate or being held accountable for having misled us about her principles.

She likes recalling the story of Sen. Margaret Chase Smith’s Declaration of Conscience, her public stand against Joe McCarthy, a Republican colleague intent on destroying political decency.  That took courage, yet she made a partisan speech, making clear her belief that real Republicanism could defeat the Democrats without McCarthy’s vitriol.

Margaret Chase Smith ultimately lost re-election.  But her electoral defeat is not what we remember.  Her assured place in history derives from that single statement of her principles in defiance of her party.

The nation needs a functioning two-party system, operating through compromise. The majority party should dominate decision making, but it should accommodate views of the minority to promote a sense of unity of purpose.

Instead, we have a nation divided.  The two sides appear beyond any hope of compromise. The war is on, not only for this presidential term, but for the indefinite future. 

The Democrats are dazed by finding themselves in this situation and remain unable to pull themselves together with a coherent policy under strong leadership.  While the times demand a bold alternative to Trump, they rely simply on the slim hope that opposition to him and his ego-based politics will produce their electoral victory. 

The country not only needs the Democrats to find themselves but the recovery of the traditional Republican Party.  If this is the great nation that we believe it is, that’s the result of the historical interaction of the two parties.  The nation needs two strong political parties; neither now qualifies.

Susan Collins can do more for her country by keeping the spark of Republicanism alive and giving it oxygen than by mere futile gestures.  She may not turn the Party around, but in the current crisis, she can play a strong, visible and independent role in preserving and promoting the traditional GOP.

 

Collins v. Democrats

The Trump Republican Party is likely to see Collin’s situation differently.  It wants to retain at least 51 seats in the U.S. Senate to ensure that the president can pursue his personal agenda without interference from Congress.  That’s the same reason for the Texas redistricting aimed at picking up five more GOP House seats, which otherwise might fall under Democratic control.

Collins is not loyal by Trump standards, though she has either backed him on critical matters or opposed him with meaningless opposition when he could prevail without her.  But she casts one critical vote – to keep the Trump Republicans in control of the Senate.  It is doubtful if Maine could find another person who could hold the seat for the GOP.

That means the Maine campaign could boil down to a single question: which party will control the Senate?  If it’s the GOP, Trump could have a blank check for his entire second term.  If it’s the Democrats, he may be held to account or face somewhat limited powers.   

The challenge for the Democrats is simple.  They need to find a candidate who can defeat Collins.  She successfully overwhelms lesser-known candidates.   Polls showing her popularity is fading are not a basis for Democratic optimism.

The best hope for the Democrats is Gov. Janet Mills.  She is widely known and is more favorably viewed by Maine voters than Collins.  She is a right-of-center Democrat, entitling her to be considered a moderate.  With the chance to defeat Collins, liberal Democrats would likely support her, despite past differences.

The problem with Mills is her age, now 77.  She would be the oldest new senator ever; she would begin when most senators retire.  With Sen. King at 80, Maine would probably have the most geriatric U.S. Senate duo ever.

The Democrats could elect the next governor at the same time as a Mills’ victory, who could appoint her replacement, if necessary.  To ensure their hold on the Senate seat, the Democrats would need the next governor to serve as their insurance policy.

No matter the governor’s affiliation, the Legislature could adopt a law requiring that any replacement must belong to the same party as a departing senator, as is done in 10 states. 

In either case, Mills could serve less than a full term, secure in the knowledge that her seat would go to another Democrat.  (The Legislature could also require a special election to fill a vacancy, as is done in five states.)