Sen. Collins meets the common man
Big money, big attacks coming
Gordon L. Weil
Gov. Janet Mills left the Maine Democratic Senate primary race,
and the pundits flooded the media with their opinions.
Her story fit their story: the Democratic Party is split
between traditional moderates and leftwing progressives. Her withdrawal showed the progressives are
gaining.
The pundits may have been partly correct, but that’s not the
whole story. The split was more practical
than ideological. The dominant question
was not about the direction of the Democratic Party, but who had the best
chance of defeating Sen. Susan Collins.
The almost automatic response was that Mills, a proven
statewide winner with high name recognition, was the ideal candidate to end
Collins’ hold on the Senate seat.
Undoubtedly, that led Sen. Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, to
endorse Mills, but it proved to be too simple a theory.
Sen. Susan Collins usually looks vulnerable to a Democratic
challenger, but always wins. This year,
for the first time, with Mills out, she will face a candidate who has not
previously held public office – an outsider.
Mills gave way to Graham Platner, an oyster farmer who never held a higher
office than harbormaster.
Mills got into the race late. Collins, who too often had supported
President Trump, was losing her reputation as a rare GOP moderate. Mills,
as a two-time statewide winner, could have calculated that her right-of-center
record and high voter recognition would give her an advantage. Platner, already running, could be easily
defeated.
She might have believed that she could readily assemble a
coalition of coastal liberal voters and her more inland moderate constituents. After all, that has worked in the Legislature
while she’s been governor.
But Mainers, like people elsewhere, are increasingly dissatisfied
with the failure of government, federal or state, to improve their lives. Collins could bring home Capitol largesse,
but a new dock or dam doesn’t put food on the table or gas in the tank.
This sentiment suggests voter despair with both
parties. Voters say they want a candidate
who expresses independence from the system.
Sen. Angus King may be an independent, but he comes across as a
conventional Democrat.
Platner appears as bold, basic and original. His personal defects have emerged, notably a
tattoo linked to Nazi symbols and his negative posts about women and even lobstermen. He readily admits his errors, attributing them
to a heedless youth. Though virtually
sure to win, he still faces a respectable, but unfunded, primary opponent.
Collins campaign allies are already attacking him for these
faults, but the Democrats seem undeterred.
Since candidate Trump survived his Access Hollywood remarks about grabbing
women, voters may have come to ignore the past failings of candidates whose
politics they prefer.
The pundits focus on Maine as a purple state – one that could
swing between the red GOP and the blue Dems.
One of its two congressional districts has voted for Trump each election. That might raise doubts about Platner, backed
by Sen. Bernie Sanders, when facing a statewide electorate.
Trump’s popularity has reflected discontent with government
among many Second District rural voters, but he may have lost some appeal. He backs a candidate in the GOP governor’s primary
and has attracted massive financing for him, which pays for a big media buy. But, at this stage, he is still trailing a more
traditional conservative.
Many Democrats saw Mills as too right-of-center. She opposed the creation of a system of
public defenders, though Maine was the last state without one. She later gave some ground. Just before her departure, she vetoed a
Democratic move to suspend approval of any data centers in the state, which
would have set Maine apart.
At 78, Mills’ age counted against her. She would have been the oldest first-year
senator ever. King, the other Maine
senator, is 82. Maine has the oldest
median age, and many seniors are aware of the limits imposed by age when working
the long hours required by public life.
Collins, 73, faces age and possibly a health issue, a “benign
essential tremor.” No Mainer has ever
served six terms in the U.S. Senate, as she would. Platner, 41, is slightly younger than the state’s
median age of 45. He will face relentless
attacks focusing on his past. Collins may
have some deniability, if her campaign does not directly sponsor the ads.
Her split-the-difference form of moderation will be weakened
by her having backed Trump’s cabinet nominations and key policies. She rarely differs with the president when it
counts.
The Maine GOP is divided between moderates and
conservatives. Collins may have miscalculated that she can still
hold onto both Rockefeller Republicans and MAGA Trumpers. She clings
to her Senate seat, unlike Olympia Snowe, a GOP moderate who retired gracefully. Platner may be strong competition in a down
year.
Let the campaign cash flow.
