Gordon L. Weil
The Epstein affair, with Trump supporters attacking him for
supposedly blocking the release of the damaging client files of the convicted
sex offender, reveals the nature of political conspiracy theories.
A conspiracy theory begins with a premise, built on what its
creators believe is logical. It’s a theory
that lacks evidence and rests on belief.
It’s also contagious; people in the MAGA world who believe in one conspiracy
theory likely believe in several others as well.
Here’s how conspiracies can work.
1. Premise: People providing sexual favors keep client lists
of their clients and possible prospects.
2. Epstein provided sexual favors to the rich and famous. See the case of Britain’s Prince Andrew.
3. Therefore, Epstein had a client list that contained
embarrassing information or worse on the rich and famous.
Only point 2 is based on evidence. Even
if it’s logical that Epstein would keep a list, there is no evidence of it. People often believe others have done what
they would do in the same situation. “Everybody
keeps a list,” they say, meaning, “I would keep a list.”
If there is a list, it logically contains names, which if
revealed, would embarrass people. Once again, this is a matter of something
that seems logical being accepted as fact.
It it’s logical, it must be true.
Now, the next phase of the conspiracy theory.
4. The Epstein list is not being made public.
5. Some politicians could disclose the list, but resist
doing so.
6. It is logical that the reason that they refuse to make
the list public is that it will embarrass them or their allies.
Here, point 4 might be accurate if there were a list, but in
point 5, we assume that Democrat Joe Biden was involved in blocking disclosure,
while having the legal right to make the list public. We lack evidence for either of these beliefs,
but they seem logical. Point 6 also seems
to be the logical result, though there’s no evidence.
Before moving to the next phase, the conspiracy thus far is
based on what the creators believe are inescapable logic and reasonable
assumptions. If another person does not
share these views, we can assume that it’s only logical that they are defending
the bad guys.
This train of reasoning is widely distributed. It fits neatly with the idea that bureaucrats¸
known as the deep state, are running the government. Nobody elected them, but they can withhold the
Epstein list. They must be protecting
government leaders who are content to let them run the country.
People who believe that the government is corrupt and
unresponsive latch onto this reasoning, because it confirms their own
opinions. Withholding the Epstein list
is part of a broader conspiracy, backed by the deep state, to use the
government for their own nefarious purposes.
Now, the next phase.
7. Trump ran for president, but had no personal agenda. He sought the support of constituencies seeking
change who wanted to oust the incumbent administration. He adopted the agendas of these people to
build his core support.
8. The Epstein list conspiracy believers are an available
constituency.
9. He absorbed the Epstein conspiracy people and pledged
that, if they get him elected, he would find and make public the list they
seek.
Final phase: it works. With their ardent support, he was elected. Promoting the conspiracy has made him president.
Conspiracies work so well, Trump uses them
repeatedly: international trade is a plot against the U.S., the 2020 election
was stolen, Joe Biden was a robot. He
moved on, expecting the Epstein people to focus approvingly on how he is changing
the country
The conspiracy believers still expect him to uncover the
truth that they assume exists. They want
him to focus on the Epstein list, as promised.
Trump’s backers believe that the Democrats could have released it, but
risked embarrassment, so now they must pay.
In office, Trump’s aides find no list. Maybe Epstein kept it in his head or destroyed
it or maybe we already know all there is to know. But Trump had to tell loyal backers that the promised
list does not exist, producing the badly timed death of a false promise.
The conspiracists are furious, claiming Trump did not keep
his promise, an essential reason that they backed him. Maybe they believe he cynically used Epstein
to gain their support. Or is he hiding something? His solution: blame the Democrats. For what?
A political conspiracy is not based on provable facts. If the charges could be proved, there would
be evidence, not a theory based on false logic and questionable assumptions. Conspiracy theory is a lie.
Telling lies is like walking on a tight rope. You can easily fall off.
