Trump could sacriifice Ukraine to win a Nobel Prize

 

Gordon L. Weil

Russia’s Vladimir Putin wants to destroy an independent Ukraine.

America’s Donald Trump wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Trump would give Putin what he wants, hoping that his role in ending hostilities would produce the Prize.

If the killing is halted, he believes he will have achieved “peace.”  It probably won’t be more than a dubious truce.  Ukraine would surrender, justifying Russia’s invasion.   The shooting would stop in time for him to win this year’s prize.  Then Russia could then resume its invasion, just as it has done twice before.

Trump tried to browbeat Ukraine into accepting a deal under which it gives up 20 percent of its territory and remains vulnerable to Putin’s expansionism.   Because Ukraine has depended on American military support, he implies that common sense will lead it to accept his deal rather than face outright defeat. 

He even gave Ukraine, the victim of aggression, a sample of life without the U.S. when he temporarily cut off arms supplies and intelligence to the beleaguered country.

Putin tries to rally support for his attempt to obliterate independent Ukraine by claiming that it is under Nazi rule.  Yet Russia, like Nazi Germany, is the invader.

Beginning in 1937, Nazi Germany pursued an almost identical policy, taking control of European areas with German-speaking populations.  Encountering little opposition from the major powers, it invaded more than ten other countries in its effort to dominate the entire Continent and beyond. 

Putin now demands from Ukraine its territory, its neutrality, having only a weak military and a change of leadership.  Ukraine would become a Russian satellite, an element of Putin’s effort to restore as much of the Soviet Union as possible.  It could serve as a platform for invading at least five more countries.

Trump’s hope and Putin’s plan have encountered Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his opposition to giving up sovereignty.  Another problem is Europe and other countries who back Zelenskyy because of their bitter memories of Nazi aggression.

After the war, NATO and the European Union were created to provide regional deterrence to any such move by Russia.   NATO relies heavily on American security guarantees.  Ukraine wants to join both groups.  Russia invaded to make that impossible and the U.S. acquiesces.

Facing the Russian invasion, the Europeans are joining together to reject it.  They back Ukraine for its sake and their own.  They count on the continued support of the U.S., their World War II ally, and the historical opponent of foreign takeovers of independent countries.   They are not yet ready to assume full responsibility themselves.

But, as usual, Trump has upset traditional expectations.  Unwilling to supply arms directly to Ukraine, the U.S. would sell them to the European nations who could give them to Ukraine.  Grossly exaggerating the previous amount of American aid, he will go no further.

His apparent agreement with Putin’s terms for a quick end to the war has awakened a strong European reaction.  Inadvertently, he may have helped boost European unity.  He refuses European requests for increased U.S. sanctions on Russia, but at least listens to their demands for an immediate truce.  Still, he does not press Russia to agree.

Experience has shown that any new Russian peace agreement would need to be policed.  Europe could provide a protective force, but the U.S. would go no further than conducting overflights and providing intelligence.  For the time being, even these assurances are shaky.

Before security arrangements are needed, there must be a truce.  Peace negotiations cannot take place while war rages.  Putin has convinced Trump that he is winning, so he will not negotiate directly with Zelenskyy.  Europeans believe that Trump must join them in forcing Putin to negotiate by applying tougher sanctions, which Trump threatens, but never deploys.

Trump’s Nobel ambition is hostage to Putin’s decision about a truce and peace talks.  The future of the Atlantic alliance and opposition to further aggression await Trump’s willingness to risk his hopes for a greater cause.  His current approach is likely neither to end the war nor win him the prize.

His self-promotion for the Nobel Prize is unprecedented and awkward.  His love of praise, including soliciting Nobel nominations, is often gratified, but he may not understand the depth of European concerns if Ukraine is placed in greater jeopardy.

At his White House meeting with European leaders, he managed to mention that he had already settled six conflicts, part of his Nobel campaign claims.  While history does not support him, the Europeans, mindful of his sensitivity, continued to avoid directly differing with him. 

Trump may be unconcerned about the loss of U.S. leadership in the world, the hallmark of his second term.  He rejects the concerns and interests of traditional allies.  The result may be American isolation, which awards no prize.

 

 

 

Trump backs down from ceasefire demand in Putin meeting

 

Gordon L. Weil

While waiting for the Trump-Putin Anchorage talks to end, workers tested microphones in the media conference room.  They were readied for questions from the large media corps assembled to learn about the discussions and to question the leaders.

It was a futile effort, because after two statements composed of great generalities, Trump and Putin promptly left the room. No questions. 

The immediate impression was that the two had performed a significant achievement in the field of physics: they created a perfect vacuum.  The journalistic air was totally drained from the room.  Feel sorry for Anchorage; its name will always be associated with a massive diplomatic flop.

There are four players in the Ukraine War – Ukraine, Russia, Europe and the U.S. 

Ukraine tossed out a pro-Russian president in favor of seeking to align with the EU and NATO.  It removed itself from the Russian sphere of influence that Putin had been trying to reassemble after the demise of the Soviet Union. 

Putin’s Russia could not accept an increased NATO on its border, though it knew that the defensive alliance had no designs on its territory.  But a Western economy and values could seep across the border, undermining his autocratic rule and Putin’s hopes for a greater Russia. To reverse the westernization of Ukraine, exploited by Russia for centuries, it went to war.

Nobody counted on Ukraine’s ability to resist and the sham state of the Russian military.  A supposed easy military victory turned into a multi-year war costing hundreds of thousands of lives.  Russia became dependent on China, Iran and North Korea.  Ukraine became dependent on the U.S.

Across Europe, the Russian invasion was seen as a push to reassert Soviet-style regimes on the Continent.  Hungary, betraying the EU’s values, was a prime example of the risk.  Europe steadily increased its resolve and support for Ukraine, but kept looking over its shoulder for U.S. leadership.

The instinctive American reaction was to back Ukraine, the victim of a foreign invasion by a traditional U.S. adversary.  But Biden was unwilling to risk American boots on the ground, making a NATO response impossible, and worried about nuclear-armed Russia.  The best Russian weapon remained America’s overblown fear of it.

After seeing Ukraine’s resistance, Biden stepped up critical military support.  Weapons flowed, creating more armaments jobs in the U.S.  Ukraine resisted Russian advances.

Then came Trump.  Ignorant of Russia-Ukraine history, he saw peace there as a matter of trading real estate for silent guns.  But Ukraine land would be gone, while the guns could again begin firing.  He and JD Vance tried to browbeat Ukraine into going along.  Not only did they fail, but they succeeded in convincing Europe it had to step up its efforts.

Frustrated, Trump was repeatedly disappointed in trying to convince Putin that he could get him a good deal if he ended his aggression.  When brotherly conversation did not work, he moved to the threat of tougher sanctions and weapons sales to Europe, which could pass them on to Ukraine.  This, he thought, was what brought Putin to the Alaska talks.

Contrast the red carpet, hand-clapping greeting of Trump to the aggressive abuse of Ukraine’s Zelenskyy at the White House.  Trump conceded Ukraine territory and NATO membership before even arriving in Alaska.  That’s the art of the deal?

Giving Putin the Invader an image boost, he gained nothing.  It was a classic case of TACO – Trump Always Chickens Out.  Arriving back at home, the incredible, shrinking Trump dropped his repeated demand for an immediate ceasefire, allowing Russia to war on, just as it wished, and directly against Ukraine’s interests. 

He meets with Zelenskyy, perhaps even civilly.  But he must understand that, just like Russia, Ukraine has specific demands about territory and other matters like its captive children in Russia.  He sees that Europe now openly backs Ukraine with less reliance on the U.S.  A good American answer to Putin would be a major and immediate weapons supply for Ukraine.

The U.S. should also be willing to guarantee, along with Europe, a Ukraine-Russia accord, even though many will have questionable confidence in it, given Trump’s meandering on NATO’s Article 5, governing mutual defense.

European nations, too, can do more.  They can send their own currently home-based weapons to Ukraine now.  If they truly believe that the attack on Ukraine is an attack on them, they should regard Ukraine as their front line in a real war.

In the end, so long as Ukraine is willing and able to fight on, Trump won’t be the dealmaker.  He is obviously biased toward Putin, who obligingly affirms his assertion that Russia did not try to influence the 2016 election, and readily envisages peace as merely a matter of real estate.  Approving aggression, he gave away America’s world leadership in Anchorage.