Trump could sacriifice Ukraine to win a Nobel Prize

 

Gordon L. Weil

Russia’s Vladimir Putin wants to destroy an independent Ukraine.

America’s Donald Trump wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Trump would give Putin what he wants, hoping that his role in ending hostilities would produce the Prize.

If the killing is halted, he believes he will have achieved “peace.”  It probably won’t be more than a dubious truce.  Ukraine would surrender, justifying Russia’s invasion.   The shooting would stop in time for him to win this year’s prize.  Then Russia could then resume its invasion, just as it has done twice before.

Trump tried to browbeat Ukraine into accepting a deal under which it gives up 20 percent of its territory and remains vulnerable to Putin’s expansionism.   Because Ukraine has depended on American military support, he implies that common sense will lead it to accept his deal rather than face outright defeat. 

He even gave Ukraine, the victim of aggression, a sample of life without the U.S. when he temporarily cut off arms supplies and intelligence to the beleaguered country.

Putin tries to rally support for his attempt to obliterate independent Ukraine by claiming that it is under Nazi rule.  Yet Russia, like Nazi Germany, is the invader.

Beginning in 1937, Nazi Germany pursued an almost identical policy, taking control of European areas with German-speaking populations.  Encountering little opposition from the major powers, it invaded more than ten other countries in its effort to dominate the entire Continent and beyond. 

Putin now demands from Ukraine its territory, its neutrality, having only a weak military and a change of leadership.  Ukraine would become a Russian satellite, an element of Putin’s effort to restore as much of the Soviet Union as possible.  It could serve as a platform for invading at least five more countries.

Trump’s hope and Putin’s plan have encountered Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his opposition to giving up sovereignty.  Another problem is Europe and other countries who back Zelenskyy because of their bitter memories of Nazi aggression.

After the war, NATO and the European Union were created to provide regional deterrence to any such move by Russia.   NATO relies heavily on American security guarantees.  Ukraine wants to join both groups.  Russia invaded to make that impossible and the U.S. acquiesces.

Facing the Russian invasion, the Europeans are joining together to reject it.  They back Ukraine for its sake and their own.  They count on the continued support of the U.S., their World War II ally, and the historical opponent of foreign takeovers of independent countries.   They are not yet ready to assume full responsibility themselves.

But, as usual, Trump has upset traditional expectations.  Unwilling to supply arms directly to Ukraine, the U.S. would sell them to the European nations who could give them to Ukraine.  Grossly exaggerating the previous amount of American aid, he will go no further.

His apparent agreement with Putin’s terms for a quick end to the war has awakened a strong European reaction.  Inadvertently, he may have helped boost European unity.  He refuses European requests for increased U.S. sanctions on Russia, but at least listens to their demands for an immediate truce.  Still, he does not press Russia to agree.

Experience has shown that any new Russian peace agreement would need to be policed.  Europe could provide a protective force, but the U.S. would go no further than conducting overflights and providing intelligence.  For the time being, even these assurances are shaky.

Before security arrangements are needed, there must be a truce.  Peace negotiations cannot take place while war rages.  Putin has convinced Trump that he is winning, so he will not negotiate directly with Zelenskyy.  Europeans believe that Trump must join them in forcing Putin to negotiate by applying tougher sanctions, which Trump threatens, but never deploys.

Trump’s Nobel ambition is hostage to Putin’s decision about a truce and peace talks.  The future of the Atlantic alliance and opposition to further aggression await Trump’s willingness to risk his hopes for a greater cause.  His current approach is likely neither to end the war nor win him the prize.

His self-promotion for the Nobel Prize is unprecedented and awkward.  His love of praise, including soliciting Nobel nominations, is often gratified, but he may not understand the depth of European concerns if Ukraine is placed in greater jeopardy.

At his White House meeting with European leaders, he managed to mention that he had already settled six conflicts, part of his Nobel campaign claims.  While history does not support him, the Europeans, mindful of his sensitivity, continued to avoid directly differing with him. 

Trump may be unconcerned about the loss of U.S. leadership in the world, the hallmark of his second term.  He rejects the concerns and interests of traditional allies.  The result may be American isolation, which awards no prize.

 

 

 

Trump won’t win Nobel Prize

 

Gordon L. Weil

President Trump works hard at trying to earn the label of peacemaker.  He has his eyes on the Prize -- the Nobel Peace Prize.  He won’t win it.

Though he may charge that the Peace Prize is worthless unless he wins it or that the vote was “stolen,” some factors influencing the award are not aimed at him personally, and he seems not to understand them.  They make it impossible for him to win.

The selection is made by a special Norwegian committee from a list of nominees proposed by hundreds of people worldwide.  The five-member committee is appointed by the Norwegian parliament. To ensure that it cannot be seen as representing the country’s policies, it does not include any public office holders.

Alfred Nobel set idealistic standards for the Peace Prize and the Peace Prize committee continues to honor them.  Its selections often are meant to promote his version of peace and not only as a reward for a winner’s past peacemaking.

For example, the committee saw the award to Barack Obama, soon after he became president, as a sign of its hope for change in the world.  It wanted to encourage what it saw as his commitment to nuclear disarmament and fewer barriers to international cooperation.  It did not link the award to his historic election.

Fifty years ago, I wrote an article asserting that all Nobel Prizes, including the science awards, are political.  They are even more obviously political now. The committees balance regions and countries, favor some rivals over others and have their own leanings.  They often react slowly and follow other awards, especially in the sciences.

Why will Trump fail?

His view of peacemaking seems to consist of getting two sides in a controversy to stop shooting at one another.  He does not necessarily require that they agree on a settlement with lasting effect. 

Nobels don’t go for this minimal result.  The agreement between Egypt and Israel continues, despite calamitous events in the Middle East.  An agreement between Israel and Hamas or between Ukraine and Russia would have to be more than a ceasefire.  Each would involve more than real estate, but would touch on national sovereignty and survival.  That’s not quick or easy to do.

Even if he were lauded for gaining a ceasefire, Nobel Peace Prizes go to the two sides making an agreement, not the mediator who may have shepherded the deal.  George Mitchell got no reward for the Good Friday agreement in Northern Island.  Although he won later for other efforts, Jimmy Carter was not recognized for the Israel-Egypt accord.

The Peace Prize goes more often to people exercising “soft power” than those using “hard power.”  Greater emphasis is placed on negotiations and shared values than on the use of force to reach an agreement. 

The Nobel “art of the deal” involves negotiations and voluntary compromise.  It may entail political risk for the parties and even for the mediator.  By itself, Trump’s coercive Oval Office meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, may have torpedoed his chances for the Prize.

Nobody is perfect, so it’s likely that any Prize recipient has defects.  But the committee seeks to draw attention to admirable people like Martin Luther King, Jr., Nelson Mandela or George Marshall.  Here, Trump’s personal prejudices, his retaliation against opponents, and his attacks on universities plus his disrespect for the law, all count against him.

While the Nobel Peace Prize Committee recognizes that its awards may be controversial, its choices favor winners likely to gain broad international support.  Trump’s aggressiveness in trade policy and attitudes toward Canada and Greenland, part of Denmark, a fellow Scandinavian nation, do not make him an obvious choice for the Norwegian committee. 

In fairness, his approach could bring positive results, but they would fall far short of Nobel Prize standards.  His hard power approach has recently sent a message to Israel, which continues to destroy Gaza. 

His deal with the Yemini Houthis about the release of an American hostage, his business-oriented trip to Arab countries while skipping Israel, and his negotiations with Iran over a nuclear deal are all moves that could put pressure on Israel.  The outcome of his efforts might replace the attempted Israeli military solution to Middle East relations with regional economic cooperation, just as happened in Europe, though he may miss the similarity.

At the first sign of success, he is likely to assert his claim to the unreachable Prize.  He may not understand why Barack Obama or Al Gore or Jimmy Carter or many unknown people have won the award.  It is this very lack of understanding of the politics of hope that will cost him the Prize.