Trump's truths face the facts

Gordon L. Weil

“Everybody is entitled to their own opinion, but nobody is entitled to their own facts.”

This quote is attributed to many people and liberally advanced as an obvious truth.  But it is not; it is not a fact.

President Trump asserts that he is entitled to his own facts.  He can make a verifiably false assertion as fact, while a contrary, evidenced-based statement is “fake news.” 

Many people in the U.S. and elsewhere defer to him, because he is the powerful president of the most powerful country.  Opposition to his version of truth is overcome by intimidation and the accompanying appeasement.  Trump gains an aura of invincibility when others must accept his version of the truth.

The Washington Post fact checker found 30,573 times when Trump advanced his untruth as a truth during his first term.  He seems not to have slowed down.  In fact, his opinion-as-fact has been working even better than it did the first time around.

Trump backers have taken over the Republican Party.  Politicians in office before Trump arrived are given the choice between aligning themselves with his policies, facing defeat by one his backers in a party primary or retiring.  Loyal Trump backers can expect to keep their seats and hope for appointment by him to higher office.

In his first administration, Trump named competent people to top positions.  But he found they were not sufficiently loyal, relying on their own expertise and experience.   When they refused to follow orders that contradicted practice and sound policy, he fired them.  There was much turnover in that term.

For his second term, he sought loyalty above competence.  It is obvious that he did not want any more frequent turnover.  He has found people whose ambition led them to abandon their own past versions of the truth in favor of his.  The most obvious examples are Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

At the same time, he found cheerleaders, grateful for high office and pleased to support whatever his version of the truth might be, even embellishing it.  Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noam would blatantly lie about the killings of American citizens to justify the actions of personnel of her agency enforcing Trump’s immigration sweeps.

Attorney General Pam Bondi obediently seeks dubious prosecutions of Trump’s opponents and critics, mostly pursuing Democrats. 

Dealing with other countries, Trump could easily exploit America’s superior military and economic power.  Many nations depend on the U.S. for their defense or their export market and appease the president.  They fall in line behind his actions based on his version of the facts, though he often abruptly shifts course.

He has claimed that Greenland’s waters are being patrolled by Russian and Chinese vessels, though there is no evidence of their presence.  He asserts that only U.S. ownership of the island would offer adequate Arctic protection, although over 10,000 American troops had been withdrawn from Greenland without his sending any replacements.

Trump’s peace policy also included invading Venezuela, bombing Iran and sinking boats on the high seas.  He imposed arbitrary and excessive tariffs on world trade for political, not economic, purposes.  Because he went largely unopposed, he deemed his actions acceptable and appropriate.

Finally, he began to face pushback.  Bystander videos of the Minneapolis shootings of immigration enforcement opponents showed that Noam had manufactured false charges about them.  Resistance grew to the killing of people who posed no lethal threat.  He then promised to “de-escalate a little bit.”

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney forcefully declared his country’s dissent from Trump trade and invasion policies.  Carney’s Davos speech galvanized world opinion.  Trump warned the Prime Minister that Canada is a U.S. dependent.  Then he phoned Carney to hold a civil discussion of mutual concerns.

Still, his sycophants’ lying remained unrelenting.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promptly bragged that Carney had backed off his Davos positions.  He attempted to transform Trump’s call into a political win, not expecting a Carney response. But the Prime Minister immediately confirmed that he had stood his ground with Trump.  Bessent had lied.

Trump’s popularity with American voters, to say nothing of foreign leaders, is declining.  While polls are not entirely accurate and they do not forecast future sentiment, they indicate a trend away from Trump.  Republicans remain strongly loyal, yet some are beginning to put daylight between themselves and the president.

His high opinion of himself may lead Trump to create his own truth.  Much of his political power depends on other people’s willingness to accept his truth.  In Minneapolis, irrefutable evidence overcame self-serving falsehood.   In Davos, his potential retaliation became less menacing than his existing international behavior.

Trump’s truth is failing.  Evidence and nerve are beginning to emerge. What are the consequences for him and the U.S. if his mystique melts?

Carney, Powell stand up to Trump

Gordon L. Weil

President Trump seems to convert almost all leaders into fans, mostly because they know he thrives on flattery.  He readily accepts their artificial praise.

The media likes to report how he forces skeptics or critics to appease him in pursuing their own interests.  They end up settling for less than his original demand and consider the deal a win or else helplessly let him take advantage of them.

But this week, two people have carefully stayed on their own course despite his pressure.  Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stand out from crowd.

When Trump first sharply hiked tariffs, then Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promptly retaliated.  His countermove, rare among the early U.S. tariff victims, was designed to get the U.S. to retreat.  Tariffs between the two countries soared to the point that would harm both sides.

To his credit, Trump realized he had gone too far, depriving the U.S. of needed fuel and raw materials.  He eliminated tariffs on trade under USMCA, the trade agreement among the U.S., Mexico and Canada.  Major barriers remained on steel, aluminum, autos and softwood lumber. 

The Canadian government changed when Carney took office.  Politically, he could not quickly reciprocate for the Trump cut, though he recognized that its effect on essential imports was harming Canadian consumers and industry.   He also found that the overall effect of the USMCA preference gave Canada the lowest U.S. tariff at 5.6 percent.

Trade talks repeatedly missed deadlines as Canada held firm.  To negotiate with the U.S. and provide some relief to Canadians, Carney has just reciprocally reduced Canadian tariffs to the USMCA level.  Some in Canada erroneously saw this move as appeasement, ignoring the fact that the U.S. had moved first.

Before acting, he called Trump, who apparently accepts Canada’s independent policy and recognizes U.S. dependence on some Canadian imports.  The New York Times reported that Trump said that he and Carney “are working on something.”  He continued, “We want to be very good to Canada. I like Carney a lot. I think he’s a good, good person.”

Carney had been ready to seek other trading partners.   Now, a deal on autos is likely and accords on the other three products are possible.  The U.S. and Canada may also be finding areas of agreement on the upcoming revision of the USMCA, under which Mexico has gained the most benefit.

If Trump has kind words for Carney, despite the Canadian’s independent stance, he does not hold back when it comes to the Federal Reserve’s Powell, whom he calls a “numbskull” for refusing to cut interest rates.  He’s gradually realizing that Powell does not act alone and that the kind of deep cuts he wants aren’t likely, no matter who sits on the Fed’s Open Market Committee.

Powell, who clearly believes in the Fed’s independence from the politics of the day, appropriately refrains from answering Trump’s attacks.  To do so would plunge the Fed into politics.

The Fed’s missions are maintaining full employment and controlling inflation, striking a delicate balance with the entire world waiting to judge its actions.  In recent years, it has leaned toward the fight against inflation.  Now, Powell’s analysis suggests that the Fed can ease up on inflation and reduce the interest rate until it sees the impact of higher U.S. import tariffs.

The current Federal Funds interest rate, used for lending among banks and dominating short-term interest from credit cards to mortgages, is set between 4.25 and 4.5 percent.  In July, two Trump appointees favored a one quarter percent cut, hardly the three percent that Trump wants, while the majority left the rate unchanged.  The media exaggerated this small difference.

Trump and his economists could have sat with Powell and made the case that the inflation risk is less worrisome, avoiding the usual unrealistic demands and threats.  The president would have been playing, perhaps persuasively, on the Fed’s court, but that’s not his style.

Instead, Trump attacked.  Based only on an unsubstantiated charge that a Fed member had cheated on a mortgage application, he demanded her resignation.   Knowing that it was grandstanding, the Justice Department baited Powell by demanding he fire her, though he has no such power.

The U.S. and much of the world depend on a soundly managed American economy and dollar, still the international reserve currency.  Trump would willingly endanger both if he could claim before the next election that he had boosted the economy to new heights.  He expects his Fed appointees to be his foot soldiers in this effort.

There’s no doubt that higher tariffs will increase some costs and prices.  Trump cannot make Powell responsible for that, simply because he won’t lower interest rates.  Trump may not understand that, but Powell does and holds firm.  So far, that works. 

Canada defies U.S., its unity growing

 

Gordon L. Weil

President Trump’s threatening and vacillating trade policy has produced a burst of Canadian national unity that would have been unimaginable earlier this year.  His disdain for Canada, which he has treated as nothing more than a weak satellite, led him to claim that it should simply give up and become the 51st American state.

His threats, both economic and territorial, produced a stunning election upset.  The Conservatives, led by a Trump fan, had been set to sweep national elections, after the Liberals dumped Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.  His replacement was Mark Carney, a man who had held major offices in Canada and the U.K. and headed a major international firm. 

Carney and the Liberals won.  His competence was obvious and appealing in the crisis.  Despite Canada’s historic dependence on the U.S., Trump’s persistent desire to absorb Canada gave Carney the opportunity to be defiant. 

Prime Minister Carney promptly proved himself an unconventional Liberal, abandoning partisan politics in favor of seeking practical solutions.  He is producing results in pushing for a more integrated domestic market for Canadian production and building access to trade relationships with Europe and Asia to supplement and somewhat replace the U.S.

Under Carney’s leadership, Canada now works toward being an energy superpower and having the fastest growing economy in the G-7.  The world, possibly including Trump, had not recognized that its economy has edged past Russia’s.  It has the natural resources, particularly hydrocarbons, and the productive capacity to keep growing, reducing dependence on the U.S.

It is unified and moving quickly.  The Council of the Federation groups the heads of the ten provinces and three territories.  Its meeting this week with Carney was the most unified that its members said they could recall. 

Trump has succeeded in bringing Canada together behind Carney.  Doug Ford, the Conservative premier of Ontario, the country’s most populous province, aligned with Trump until this year. Now, he almost gushes in his praise for Carney and worries about the lack of U.S. reliability.

For Canada’s leaders, no deal with the U.S. would be better than a bad deal.  The deadline, set by Trump and Carney, is August 1.  Will this be a case of TACO – Trump Always Chickens Out, with U.S. accepting a deal on a few key items, or the outbreak of economic hostilities?  Canadians may be willing to pay more for Canadian-made products rather than to give in.

In rejecting a loyal friend, the U.S. has succeeded in making Canadians more aware of their country.  There is no turning back; Canada will never be the same.  Neither will the U.S., which will never again be fully trusted in a country that had believed it was America’s closest ally.

But this is not the first time that strains in the U.S.-Canada relationship have resulted in a stronger Canada.   At least twice previously, it has been challenged and has responded as a nation.

During World War II, the U.S. built airbases in Newfoundland and Labrador, then a British colonial possession.  These major airbases developed new areas and created thousands of jobs.  The U.S. became the major economic force in the territory.

Newfoundland was mostly self-governing, though Britain provided significant financial support and could control its government.  After the war, Britain had little interest in continuing to finance Newfoundland.  The territory was given three choices: independence, joining Canada or an economic union with the U.S.

Canadian Prime Minister W.L. McKenzie King opposed a U.S. takeover, favored by many  Newfoundlanders, fearing it would lead to the U.S. gaining control of Canada.  The American government, not seeking new territory, did not pursue the alternatives to Canada.  By a narrow margin, Newfoundland and Labrador voted to join Canada, and it became its tenth province. 

The U.S. had built bases there during World War II because of its proximity to Europe.  Its strategic importance later declined, but the new Russian threat and technology’s effect in shortening distances may renew its role.

Immediately east of Labrador is Greenland, a Danish territory technically on the North American continent.  Trump sees it providing the U.S. the kind of security and control that might have come with Newfoundland and Labrador. 

McKenzie King had dealt with an earlier American challenge.  Early in 1942, the U.S. built the Alcan Highway, providing a road link across British Columbia and the Yukon to Alaska.  The unpaved highway could allow supplies and troops to flow north when the Japanese attacked Alaska.

McKenzie King was warned that the U.S. could easily take over western Canada.  U.S. Army road builders greatly outnumbered the few Mounties on patrol there.  McKenzie King reacted, appointing a Canadian regional official to protect against U.S. overstepping its authority.  He quickly created a national park to keep Americans out. Late in 1942, the Americans were gone.

Trump’s desire to absorb Canada picks up from past missed opportunities.  But Canada has moved on.

How a country, leader impresses Trump

 

Gordon L. Weil

You know it when you see it. 

Donald Trump does.   He sees it in British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.  He does not see it in Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy or former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.  When he sees it, his quick take on a leader influences his policy toward that person’s nation.

It’s called gravitas.  That’s a term from ancient Rome.  If a person has it, they are thought to be serious, substantial and dignified.  Their gravitas gains them respect and enhances their ability to lead.  That respect benefits their countries and the aura of leadership gives them the ability to govern effectively.  

Americans seem to place little value on it, preferring to see a president as a pal.  Look at Gerry (Gerald Ford), Jimmy (James Carter), Bill (William Clinton), Al (Albert Gore), and Joe (Joseph Biden). Trump might aspire to gravitas. He may appear as a plain-speaking guy, but he enjoys a big military parade with its multiple salutes.

Carney recently made it clear that a leader with gravitas is essential if a nation wants to be taken seriously by the U.S., China or Russia. “If you are not at the table,” he said, “you’re on the menu.”  See Zelenskyy at the White House.

The effect can be found in the serious trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, the U.K. and Canada, while the rest of the world is in the waiting room.  Its absence can be seen in the way Trump treats Ukraine.

Carney has given Canada a new image, one immune from Trump’s ridiculous and offensive claim that it should be the 51st American state.  With his respected standing, extensive international experience and proximity to the U.S., he has been able to express clearly how Canada and others see the U.S. and to act on his conclusions.

He laid it out recently.  Here is his view, which is a clear statement reflecting the sentiment of leaders of other countries as well.

The U.S. played a “predominant role” in the world after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  It exercised a “gravitational pull” on Canada.  “Today, that predominance is a thing of the past.”

“Now, the United States is beginning to monetize its hegemony, charging for access to its markets and reducing its relative contribution to our collective security,” he stated. 

A key word for Carney is “reliable.”  You could always count on America, especially as the protector of international rules-based order.  That has changed. Canada now finds itself in an “age of disorder” and feels threatened by “a new imperialism.”

Like a substantial investor, Canada will seek to diversify.  This does not mean abandoning its close relationship with the U.S., which is an asset for both countries.  But by diversifying, Canada can reduce the risk that Washington will set Canadian national policy.  The same formula is true for Britain, France and Germany.

“We’re far too reliant on the United States,” Carney said. “We can no longer send three-quarters of our defense capital spending to America.”  His country is now seeking to form a new relationship with Rearm Europe, a multinational effort to expand non-American military production.

He asserts that “the world’s trade routes, allegiances, energy systems and even intelligence itself are being rewired.”  Canada will seek “a new international set of partnerships” and “deeper alliances with stable democracies.”   The clear implication is that he questions whether the U.S. is a “stable” democracy.

Carney recognizes that his new policy, involving stepped up defense spending, will impose a cost on the country.  He has already shown himself to be more aware of the economic interests of Canadian provinces to promote accelerated growth and a stronger economy beyond what Trudeau’s utopian agenda would have permitted.

His view is increasingly the common view of countries from Estonia to Australia.  Trump’s vision of nations orbiting the U.S., not so much for American domination as for its enrichment, is leading other countries to reassess their relationship with the U.S. and to form “a new international set of partnerships.”

Nowhere is this better illustrated than in today’s crisis points in Europe and the Middle East.  American interests, influenced by its relationships with Russia and Israel, do not align with those of Canada or Europe, which may see themselves as targets.  Trump’s easy claims to Canada or Greenland reveal the gap with countries that have been threatened or invaded.

“When we stand up for territorial integrity, whether it is in Ukraine or West Bank and Gaza, we are standing up for the territorial integrity of the Canadian Arctic,” he said.

Perhaps one positive result of the Trump’s pressure on trade and territory is that Canada and Europe are being forced to accept their own responsibility for a stable and reliable world order.