Why Trump won't win Nobel Peace Prize

Gordon L. Weil

1. The Nobel Peace Prize award will be announced on Friday, October 10.  Nominations closed January 31, 2025 for this year; Trump had been president only 11 days.  The Nobel Committee can add names after that date but with hundreds of nominations made, that’s unlikely.  Who was nominated is not known for 50 years.  The Committee is composed of five Norwegians, as Alfred Nobel had decided.  An idealist, he wanted the awards to go to peacemakers and those who created conditions of peace.

2. Mediators seldom win.  Presidents Carter (Egypt-Israel) and Clinton (Jordan-Israel and Eritrea-Ethiopia) plus Sen. Mitchell (Northern Ireland), all successful mediators, did not win, though some of the parties on each side, settling their conflict, did.  Carter won for his later efforts.  President Theodore Roosevelt won for mediating the end of the Russo-Japanese War.

3. Warriors don’t win if they use force or power.  Bombing Iran or using promised U.S. tariff cuts to induce agreement is probably not peacemaking.  

4. The U.S. has been the sole vote in the 15-member UN Security Council against decisions calling for a ceasefire in Gaza.  Israel has been condemned by the UN and others for its actions there, resulting in the deaths of many Palestinians, aid workers and journalists.  With its veto in support of Israel, the U.S. under Trump has blocked calls for a ceasefire.

5. Trump has relabeled the U.S. Department of Defense as the Department of War.  That is clearly not what Alfred Nobel had in mind.

6. Trump claims to have ended seven wars.  In the case of India-Pakistan, the issues are far from resolved, and India rejects his claim.  In another case, he does not seem to know what countries were involved.  Others, even if true, were relatively minor or not armed conflicts.  Quality, not quantity, counts.

7. Promoting oneself publicly does not work. The Nobel Committee wants to appear independent, not pressured.  By the same token, it is supposed to be insulated from Norwegian politics, which Trump tried to leverage.  Nobel Prizes may have political overtones, but they are usually not the result of public campaigns.

8. Trump may feel that if Obama received one quickly, so should he. The Nobel citation for Obama was based on his being the first American president to endorse disarmament (not because of his race).   To the Committee, the statement was historic.  Like other anticipatory Nobel Prizes, this one did not yield the desired result.  Vietnam turned out so badly so quickly that Kissinger wanted to give his Prize back.

9. The Nobel Committee received many nominations of organizations doing peace-promoting work.  While it may not honor an organization it has already recognized, like the International Committee of the Red Cross (actually, a Swiss organization), it could look to Africa, Asia, Latin America or Oceania to award its seal of approval.  It might avoid picking an aid organization involved in Gaza, unless it wanted to make a strong statement.  If it selected a laudable organization anywhere, the choice could lessen the chance of Trump claiming to be more qualified than another individual who won the Prize.

10. Maybe next year.