Bellwether election coming up -- One May race could tell it all

Bellwether election coming up

One May race could tell it all

 

Gordon L. Weil

Is he a good Republican?  

Reject Obamacare?  Check.   Close Department of Education?  Check.  Loosen gun control? Check.  Claim global warming is pseudoscience?  Check.  Balance the budget? Check.

That’s Thomas Massie, the Republican House member from Kentucky’s Fourth District.  He’s an 84 percent backer of President Trump, while Maine GOP Sen. Susan Collins, classified as a moderate, backs him 96 percent.  That makes him a despised rebel.

Trump backs a well-financed candidate challenging Massie in the May 19 primary.  The president now defines what it means to be a Republican and will tolerate no independence.  If successful, Massie’s rival could help end the president’s political heartburn.

The race comes down to Massie versus Trump.  It will be a test of Trump’s popularity among Republicans and if the traditional budget-balancing party, the classic conservative GOP, still exists and can make a comeback.  The district is solid red, so its vote will take the pulse of Republican support.

Massie, like Kentucky U.S. Senator Rand Paul, is a libertarian.  Like Paul, he is true to his beliefs and is closely aligned with deep conservatism.   Government should do less, a lot less, and sharply cut the mounting national debt.  If that means no aid to Israel, no Iran war, little foreign involvement, that’s all right.  Just not with Trump.

The primary represents a test for Trump of his own choosing.  He demands and usually gets total loyalty from GOP House members.  In the first year of his second term, Trump appeared to enjoy unlimited and complete power.  Massie’s opposition has mostly been annoying, though he led in getting some of the Epstein papers made public.  Most House Republicans treat him as a pariah.

But the corruptive force of Trump’s power is challenging his hold on the party and the country.

Part of Trump’s 2024 electoral success depended on his making inroads into traditional Democratic constituencies.  Some of his actions have harmed the interests of social and ethnic groups, which split to support him.  Their disappointment may now emerge as a barometer of his standing.  At the same time, Democrats who did not vote in 2024 may also rejoin their party.

His purification of the Republican Party by discrediting and defeating traditionalists pushes away potential supporters.   They have sustained his policies, but will they begin to respond to voter concerns and become more independent of Trump’s threats as the campaigns progress?  He should have cause for concern.

His failure to tame inflation, a major factor in his victory, affects middle-class voters who backed him because of his cost-cutting promises.

His attack on the pope and his self-portrayal as Jesus has aroused open opposition among religious conservatives.

His obvious discrimination against Blacks and women, beginning with the dismissal of the Chair of the Joint Chiefs, a Black, and the head of the Navy, a woman, has offended some in these large constituencies and may lead to increased opposition.

His abuse of the law by demanding the prosecution of his political opponents, going back to the 2020 elections, creates discomfort.

His indifference to Ukraine accompanied by his inexplicable Russian sympathies, his attempt to take Greenland from Denmark, an ally, and, contrary to his promise, his launching the Iran war without consulting Congress or American allies have all faced strong opposition.

His trade policy and his absurd desire to make Canada the 51st state has imposed new costs on American consumers and manufacturers.

His family’s unprecedented and open enrichment by benefitting from his policies and foreign friendships displeases people.

Taken together, these concerns have raised questions even among his core backers that he is losing mental acuity and focusing almost entirely on his personal reputation and legacy.  The prospects for the next two and a-half years are not positive.

If the Massie election reveals GOP disaffection from Trump, it could help elect traditional Republican backers elsewhere, enabling them to gain more influence.  In Congress, that could loosen Trump’s virtually total control and promote compromise.  Trump could be forced to deal with his skeptics and opposition.

Conventional wisdom is that the Democrats should hammer affordability and back away from more controversial issues favored by progressives.  Yet it’s possible that any Democratic vote, moderate or progressive, helps the party, because it is united in its opposition to Trump.

Increasingly, Trump is making himself into the 2026 campaign issue, above even immigration, taxation or Iran.  If Massie wins the Kentucky primary convincingly, that could signal a strong rejection of his MAGA politics.

Looming over this scene is the specter of Hungary’s landslide defeat of right-wing Premier Viktor Orban, who indulged in the same style of governing as Trump.  It would be an almost impossible stretch for the Democrats to gain two-thirds control of Congress as did Orban’s opposition, but they could put the brakes on Trump.