Collins-Jackson election is about her Trump support

She goes on the attack

 

Gordon L. Weil

 

Maine Democrats have come up with their candidate to challenge Republican Susan Collins as she seeks her sixth term in the U.S. Senate.  His hazing began immediately.

His path to the nomination came via Graham Platner, a political neophyte who turned out to have more personal problems than the Democrats could bear.  Because taking this seat is critical to their hopes for gaining Senate control, revelations about Platner threatened their plans.  He had to be replaced.

The Democratic State Committee did not handpick his replacement, but created a mini-primary/convention system.  Democrats caucused in Maine’s 16 counties and select uncommitted delegates to a state convention, composed of 601 delegates to select the nominee, using a variation on ranked choice voting.

On Saturday, the meeting took place in Bangor, but the winner was a foregone conclusion.  Though delegates were technically unpledged, most had preferred candidates.  Senate hopefuls promoted the selection of delegates favorable to them.

More than a week before the state meeting, one Senate candidate had enough delegate support to be sure to win, and other candidates withdrew.  The party was unified, despite some grumbling about the winner’s effective organizing.   The selection process was open, included a televised debate, and it worked.  Outside pundits had mistakenly forecast a mad scramble.

Who is the Democratic candidate for Maine senator?

Troy Jackson, a logger and the former president of the Maine Senate, is the Democratic candidate.  He had run for the party’s nomination for governor and was able to deploy his existing organization effectively to get his supporters to the county caucuses.

He’s from northern Maine, a Trump-leaning area.  While the Democrats normally carry the southern part of the state handily, he offers the possibility of picking up votes in the region where they need added support.

He is a former legislator running for a legislative seat, giving him the chance to hit the ground running if elected.  And he is well known to the state’s Democratic leaders and activists.  Like most of them, he is part of the dominant progressive wing.

What’s Jackson’s relationship with Platner?

Platner preferred Jackson; both were endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders.  Like Platner, he is working class, so he may appeal to average voters.  His association with Platner could have a negative effect.

Having missed badly on Platner, the GOOP and the media may compensate by overdoing scrutiny of Jackson. They will try to “platnerize” him by seeking past behavior that could weaken or destroy his candidacy.   Undoubtedly, he will be subject to more attacks than Collins, thanks to clear media bias in her favor.

Even before the convention, the media reported on his admitted temper with few details about his record.  It also focused on a late income tax payment of $4,600 and how his positions have changed over time. 

Is Jackson starting too late to have a chance?

His campaign will be far shorter than Platner’s, but most Maine voters don’t focus on campaigns until after Labor Day.  The Democrats’ selection process has drawn favorable attention to the party and to Jackson.

The key may be fundraising.  If Jackson runs close to Collins in early polling, outside money could flow to make him competitive with her.  It will take time for Jackson to become known and for reputable polls to emerge.  There’s enough time for effective television buys and mailings.  In a small state, there’s just so much money can buy.

In Maine, field organization matters.  Platner’s campaign was said to be chaotic, so Jackson’s battle-tested operation is likely to be an improvement.   He will inherit help from workers for the other Senate/Governor hopefuls, who have endorsed him.

Can Jackson defeat Collins?

She has been able to overcome weak poll forecasts with election victories.  She has enjoyed being considered a moderate Republican, though she is often loyal to Trump and may carefully oppose him when her vote does not change the result.  She brings home federal money.  The conservative Maine GOP sticks with her. 

She will be well funded.  The out-of-state, pro-Trump funding, massively available alongside her campaign, could itself become an issue.

In 2020, she won with only 51 percent of the vote.  Jackson is a stronger candidate than the last Democratic candidate.  Like Collins, his family has lived in Maine for generations.  His working-class credentials, missing among past Collins’ opponents, might have appeal. 

Age is an ignored factor in this election.  He is 58, while Collins is 73.   Voters seem concerned about older candidates this year. 

In the end, the election will be a referendum on Trump.  Collins will try to revive her reputation as a moderate.  But she voted with him 94.6 percent of the time in 2025.  If Maine voters believe she has been too closely aligned with him, Jackson has a path to the Senate.