The GOP: bitter, but possibly liberated as elections bring a chance for change

 

The GOP: bitter, but possibly liberated

Elections bring a chance for change

 

Gordon L. Weil

In the wake of next week’s midterm elections, two images of the Republican Party may emerge, one a renewal of bitter conflict and the other more constructive.

One will be the MAGA reaction to the results.   Trump has created the model of what you do when you lose an election.   The losers charge it was tainted by illegal voting and dishonest vote counting.   That leads to claims that the election was invalid and the results should be nullified.  The challenges are settled in court.   Meanwhile, the winners cannot take office.

It’s not clear what would happen next, because, lacking evidence, it never gets that far.  Possibly, new elections.  Certainly, confidence in the democratic system would be undermined with the aim of more authoritarian rule.  Chaos is the goal, not a different outcome.  That’s what occurred in 2020.

The Democrats seem to have helped the Trump effort to question the results.  In Alaska, they found a person with an almost identical name as incumbent GOP Sen. Dan S. Sullivan to run with the intent of confusing voters.   That’s not illegal, but the revelation is not likely to help the Democratic candidate.

Even before the election, Trump’s Department of Justice asked the federal district court to block the result if the senator loses but would have won with the votes of the duplicate candidate.

Such an order would not be possible.  The court would have to assume, without knowing, who voted for the copy candidate and why.  

The DOJ probably knows that.  But the case boosts Trump’s claim that the Democrats undermine free elections.  Before the revelation of their promoting the copy, they had denied any connection with his candidacy.  It matters little that the Alaska situation does not involve either phantom voters or dishonest vote counting; it adds to the atmosphere of distrust.

A Blue Wave, with big Democratic margins, could discourage GOP claims, but challenges are highly likely.  The Democrats have set up an election protection task force.  Federal district courts should be ready to decide promptly unless the Republicans have evidence and not mere suspicion. 

The immediate aftermath of the elections could produce the political chaos that voting irregularity charges are meant to cause.   The lame duck Congress will try to pass many Trump policies while the GOP still controls the government and uncertainty swirls.   The election effect won’t be over until the new Congress is seated.  

If the Democrats gain control of one or both houses of Congress in January, they may investigate the Trump administration and will surely hold hearings to restage those conducted by the GOP.   They will try to block Trump’s judicial and executive nominations and will try to take control of the legislative agenda.  Republicans will resist.

Democrats and many political analysts assume that the GOP members will remain almost monolithic in their support for the president and his agenda, just as they were in the first two years of this Trump term.  Whatever the Democrats may try, they assume a united GOP opposition, still committed to the Trump agenda.

This assumption could be incorrect.  The election may not only reshape the Democrats, but the results may influence congressional Republicans.  Some Republicans may be liberated from their blind loyalty to Trump.

Even if Trump himself remains unyielding, Republican members of Congress will most likely have to deal with the realities highlighted by the elections.  Congressional Republicans may increasingly want to determine their own political fates, rather than falling in line behind a weakened and lame duck Trump.  

They would have good reasons to change course.

1. Trump is deeply unpopular.   Voters have begun to focus on what they see as his corruption and his willingness to attack anyone or any country disagreeing with him.  He is not only a lame duck, but his endorsement of primary opponents in 2028 may carry little weight, meaning GOP legislators have less to fear.

2. Bringing down prices and inflation tops the agenda.  As Bill Clinton said, “It’s not about woke.  It’s about broke.”  Trump’s social policy focus has fail to take attention away from the economic hardship of many Americans.

3. Trump’s immigration policy worked, but his deportation policy didn’t.  ICE should stop tracking down respectable, long-term residents, who contribute to the economy and focus on lawbreakers, as promised.   

4. The unpopular Iran war must be ended, and Ukraine should be supported.

5. Issues like Social Security cannot be ignored any longer and virtually require either an overwhelming majority of one party or really working across the aisle, thus strengthening Congress.

The Republicans will have a choice between fighting a rearguard battle supporting Trump trying to maintain some control by blocking the Democrats or reading the election results as a call to begin the renewal of the Grand Old Party.