Trump, always dominant, now seems desperate

 

Trump, always dominant, now seems desperate

Power ebbs, as time passes

 

Gordon L. Weil

Trump’s time is passing.

He has been at the center of national affairs for 10 years. History teaches that, without dictatorial control, political power often passes in about a decade.  Hitler, the worst despot in history, lasted 12 years.  Napoleon was French emperor for 10 years. 

Under a democratic system, U.S. presidents are limited to two four-year terms.  French President Macron is nearing the end of his ten-year presidency.

No matter how popular a national leader may be, their standing begins to erode the moment they take office.  The reasons are obvious.

Officeholders make decisions, and even positive moves have negative consequences.  Adversely affected groups grow, decreasing the initial popularity of an office holder.  President Trump’s immigration enforcement, going well beyond “the worst of the worst,” has undermined support among some minorities.

Another cause of lost popularity occurs when promises made during an election campaign are not kept or, even worse, the opposite action is adopted.  Trump has emphasized that he keeps his promises, contributing to his electoral appeal.  But the Iran war has marked a departure from his promises to avoid lengthy foreign wars and to bring prices down.

During a leader’s term, they exhaust the promises inherent in their campaign platform.  Either they achieve their goals or they abandon them.  Voters grow tired of their leadership, limiting their influence.  Trump made big promises on tariffs and their economic effects.  When he failed to produce promised results, voters suffered long-term harm and their confidence in him waned.

At their worst, a long-term leader may become overly impressed by their supposed popular support and their resulting power, which may encourage them to go beyond acceptable limits.  They may believe they can exercise unlimited discretion.   The enrichment of Trump and his family, thanks to his presidency, has produced hostility from people who had supported him.

While these trends may exist for any leader as their term lengthens, they have become especially evident for Trump.  The problem for him, as it has been for many of his predecessors in history, is hubris, defined as “exaggerated pride or self-confidence.”

He is unyielding in his self praise and his claims to intellectual superiority over just about anybody else.  It showed in his campaign claim that, “I will be the greatest jobs president that God ever created.”   Hubris allows him to override good advice in favor of his own instincts, often unsupported by facts. 

His super self-confidence radiates out through his undeniable charisma.  His unchecked and assertive personality arises from a career in forcing his way to success.  Assertion is everything and denial is absolute.  His personal style has been the key element in the creation of a core of supporters –the essential MAGA followers – whose allegiance is cult-like.

As his appeal erodes, Trump has two ways of retaining his authority.  One, the more dangerous, is to sabotage the political system so that elections, the central mechanism of popular control, are undermined by baseless challenges.  That is the story of the 2020 presidential election and its aftermath in the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.

The other tool Trump uses is a series of efforts to gain popular support with government largesse.  Here are his major offers:

1. DOGE dividend.  As much as $5,000, it was to be paid from savings in federal government operations.  While it did not happen, Trump has proposed a payment to each adult American citizen of $5,000, if the Republicans win the midterms and presumably have the votes for this $1 trillion plus payout.

2. Warrior dividend.  Members of the Armed Forces were paid $1,776 as a one-time bonus.  Redirected from military housing.

3. Tariff dividends or rebates.  Taxpayers were promised $2,000 either from tariff benefits or to compensate for the costs of tariffs, later ruled unlawful.  Nothing has been paid.

4. Trump accounts. A $1,000 one-time payment funds education accounts for a limited group of children.  Approved by Congress, these payments have begun.

5. Affordable Care Act rebates.  Some, facing large premium increases, receive $500 redirected from existing Obamacare funds.  Payments have begun.

6. Medicare Part B.  Many Medicare recipients will receive $90 from the program. Payments from another designated purpose have begun.

Faced with skyrocketing diesel prices resulting from the Iran war, Trump moved to lift sanctions on Russia, allowing diesel sales that he hoped would lower prices.  Intended to help with the midterms and reduce Iran war opposition, it will not work, because it is too little and too late.  Trump has also ignored deep popular dislike of doing favors for Russia. 

His other last-minute moves are likely to fail.  To swing voters, he may now appear desperate, no longer dominant.

For Trump, hubris carries him onward, and he concludes, “Bottom line, it’s all gonna work out.   You know why?  It always does.”