Why Sen. Susan Collins lost: the demise of a moderate

Why Susan Collins lost

The demise of a moderate

 

Gordon L. Weil

In 1987, I testified for Susan Collins to be confirmed as Maine Commissioner of Professional and Financial Regulation, a position both my wife and I had previously held.  My support proved justified as she did well in the post.  She deserves great credit for her efforts reforming Workers Compensation.

Collins was smart, competent and a member of a prominent Republican family that placed public service above political partisanship.  She once told me that she prized that tradition and sought to honor it.  But political moderation became impossible.  Adjusting to the GOP’s rightward shift became both a challenge and the ultimate source of the loss of her Senate seat.

When she went to Washington in 1997, she embodied that moderate tradition and promised to serve no more than two terms, evidence of her Senate tenure being public service not the beginning of a career stretching until 2027.  The changing political atmosphere and her own political ambition had their effect on her moderate stance.

In Maine, the Republican Party abandoned its good-government legacy for more conservative partisanship.  To avert challenges from the right, Collins accommodated the new GOP.  She maintained the image of civil moderation, allowing the GOP to hold onto the Senate seat by tolerating her lack of complete loyalty.

In Washington, she also adjusted to conservative reality.  To gain Senate influence, she had to serve her party’s needs, accepting its national policies while her demeanor allowed her to continue to project moderation at home.  But she needed to manage her political balance as Maine moved toward the Democrats.  By 2020, her election margin had narrowed.

She served with fellow Republican Senator Olympia Snowe, a moderate dedicated to compromise.  The contrast showed in the office space and committee assignments each was given by GOP leadership.  Collins could see the rewards of party loyalty, while Snowe stuck to her independence.  Ultimately Snowe chose to leave the Senate, while Collins climbed.

In Congress, members vote themselves “earmarks,” payments enabling each to take credit for bringing home federal money.  Earmarks were temporarily abandoned, but returned when incumbents could not resist their value in convincing voters to send them back for more.  To help her keep her seat, the party made Collins a prime harvester of federal cash.

With a bit of good luck, Collins rose to leadership of the Appropriations Committee, supposedly having a key role in deciding federal spending.  That helped in doling out earmarks, but the GOP’s unquestioning acceptance of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill meant her legislative power was limited.  She never exercised the influence she might have expected, but she hung on.

She could not use her almost demure image as protection in every situation.  She continues to be attacked for her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.  To many, he seemed sure to vote to overturn Roe v. Wade, but Collins interpreted her interview with him as assurance that he would not reverse its precedent.

The undercurrent of his failure to perform as she expected was that either she had been easily duped or that she was not telling voters the truth when she went along with Trump’s nominee.  She could never overcome such negative vibes.

Though the Maine media may have cast her as a titan based on her six terms, she isn’t in the same league as Margaret Chase Smith, Ed Muskie, Bill Cohen or George Mitchell.  All of them became nationally known figures and took political risks, bringing reflected credit to Maine.  That aura may still matter to Maine voters, and it was missing.

Her claim to moderation became hollow as time passed.  She occasionally expressed opposition to Trump, though it usually made no difference in critical votes.  She was not a leader who boldly took him on, ready to take political risks.  Her statements lacked force and became temporizing – speaking just enough to suit the needs of the moment.

Any person who holds public office long enough loses support, because some constituents will always be disappointed by their actions.  To some degree, political campaigning is meant to remind voters of the best and gloss over problems.  Campaigns depend on attacking the opponent.  Collins did all that, and ads run by her backers conflicted with her image.

She lost because of Trump, though not only because she had followed the loyalist GOP leadership.  She failed to recognize that her earmarks for firehouses meant little compared with the cost of gas, heating oil and food, increased by his tariffs and, above all, the Iran war.

On February 28, the day the war began, Trump began to lose the midterms, ultimately toppling the Republican Congress.  Collins might have saved herself if she had taken the risk of becoming the outspoken leader Maine wanted and needed.  The winner by default was Troy Jackson.