Trump win confirms America’s political change

 

Gordon L. Weil

American political history has reached a turning point.

So, too, has the country’s moral sense, at least about politics.

But that did not happen this week.  It happened eight years ago, when Donald Trump was first elected president.  Any doubt was erased by his victory and the powerful vote for Republicans across the country this week.  Except for the coasts, that win was national.

Just as in 1933, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt and his New Deal changed the country, so have Trump and his intent to “Make America Great Again.”  For FDR, the emphasis was on a “new” start while for Trump the emphasis has been on greatness “again.” 

Before FDR, the nation had been essentially conservative.  The private economy dominated and the role of government and individual rights were limited.  The economic crisis of the Great Depression and World War II forced change. The New Deal era and American post-war world dominance transformed people’s thinking.

By 2016, Trump had absorbed and embodied the increasing public sense that the country had gone too far beyond its conservative origins.  Whether he exploited that sentiment or truly believed it did not matter.  He came to be the flag around which the people yearning for the political norms of the past could rally.

That realization was more than the supporters of the politics and institutions of the New Deal era could readily accept.  Government was the main tool by which Americans took care of one another, and it was difficult for them to believe that cutting its cost would assume a higher priority than increasing or even maintaining its services.

The political aberration may not have been the 2016 election, but the 2020 election when the old guard barely clung to office.  Looking back, it becomes less difficult to understand how bitter it was for Trump and his backers to accept Joe Biden and company who stood as obstacles on their path to changing the country.

This year, Democrats believed they could snuff out Trump’s movement, because of their appeal to growing segments of the electorate and on the abortion issue.  The rushed selection of their candidate, made necessary by a president who ignored his own failings, left them running on the hope that the people would inevitably recognize Trump as a mistake.

They ignored the scope of the belief that the government had gone too far, too fast.   Social change, focused mostly on the sexual identity of some people, was not yet acceptable to many.  The lack of control of the border, seen by some as the government’s intent, created national uneasiness.   Democratic progressives, buoyed by a few election upsets, overreached.

American politics have fundamentally changed, and Trump has been able to take advantage of it.  Originally, Congress was supposed to be the dominant power of the federal government, not the president who had replaced the British king.  Parties were not expected to matter as much as the balanced institutions with their built-in checks.

In 1992, Newt Gingrich, the House Republican leader, set out to change the system.  GOP members of Congress would commit to acting like a bloc and would loyally back the leader of their party.  In effect, the U.S. would adopt the parliamentary system.  It has worked and congressional Republicans, whatever they may think of Trump, are totally loyal to him.

This year, the power of the president was further boosted by the decision of the Supreme Court that the chief executive could exercise almost unchecked power.  The appointed Court, confirmed by the president’s party, became a prime driver of presidential dominance.

Underlying the changes that are taking place is a reversal of what had come to be accepted political morality.  It has been a version of the Golden Rule: “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.”

In practice, that meant there were certain unwritten understandings about political behavior.  The Constitution could not describe every possible form of government conduct, but the early leaders believed that certain customs would be observed.  They could not suspect that acceptable behavior would change as much as it has.

Trump was clearly behind the assault on the Capitol.  He radically denies undeniable facts.  He savagely attacks those who oppose him and shows no respect for many people who have earned respect, even if they disagree.  The way he denigrated John McCain, an American hero of unlimited courage, went beyond civilized bounds.

If not dead, the constitutional culture is seriously wounded.  Unwritten understandings are readily repealed. The Trump goal is nothing less than the transformation of government.

Voters may be ready to believe that Trump does not mean what he says when he lashes out or that he cannot carry out his threats, but they may find his claim is true: he will be a president unlike any other. 

Election campaign worries? Take the long view

 

Gordon L. Weil

The political campaign these days often makes it sound as if the ultimate fate of the democracy and the country will be decided in November.  It’s now or never.

But this year’s election, though of unusual importance, will not represent the last word in American history no matter how much the campaigns raise fears.  Of course, elections matter and people should always vote, but some current trends seem highly likely to recede over time.  The underlying course of the country yields reasons for optimism.

The motto of Donald Trump and the Republican Party he has captured is “Make America Great Again.” By its own terms, this is a backward-looking message.  It is based on the belief that if the country can return to its glorious past, reversing immigration, halting inflation, ending diversity efforts, limiting environmental protection and stymying the rise of women.

This premise is almost entirely false.  Many of the claims lack evidence, but gain some acceptance thanks to sheer repetition.  It’s the triumph of politics over truth.

Here are some facts.  Immigration policy has been proposed more than once, but it won’t happen without the support of both parties, and that has been lacking.  Meanwhile, illegal immigration has again been slowed, though much needs to be done. And we can’t deport the millions who arrived in the U.S. unlawfully.  Besides, their removal would severely damage the economy.

Both inflation and prosperity have many causes, and presidents should not take the blame or the credit for either.  Government institutions, created to tame economic excess, have done generally well. No president can be held responsible for economic change.  Many forces outside of the government will propel the economy.

Without full equality for all Americans, some people exploit others. That may be fine with the people on top. That may be what “great again” means to some MAGA partisans, but, however traditional, it’s a long way from American ideals.  And it doesn’t work.

If corporate success is more important than human health, then the country could dismantle efforts to protect land, water and air.  That would restore some version of “great again,” by trading future survival for short-term gain.

The dominance of women by men, dating back to the Stone Age, may be what some men want, but women are better educated and less dominated these days.  Their progress can no longer be stopped or reversed.  Four of the nine Supreme Court justices are women.  More than a quarter of Congress members are women.

The country was long controlled by white men, presumably when America was “great.”  If you want to reverse or halt the loss of that control, preventing a majority from sharing in it, then MAGA is your movement.  But demographic reality rejects MAGA.

We are urged to believe that if Trump and the GOP win in November, MAGA will rule and its policies will be applied, dismantling representative democracy and replacing it with an irreversible authoritarianism.

Like the bases of MAGA itself, this conclusion won’t stand up. Nations pass through difficult times without necessarily succumbing to them. 

Take the extreme case of the Civil War when the very existence of the country was at stake. The Union was preserved and a changed country emerged to become the world’s greatest power.  While the war and its aftermath transformed the country, America kept its ideals intact and was able to adapt to rapid change.

Under far worse circumstances, countries recover.  Germany went from Nazi rule to liberal democracy with widely enjoyed prosperity.  In Chile, a popularly elected left-wing government was overthrown by the military.  Yet that the authoritarian regime could not hold onto power and democratic government has come back.

This year’s elections, whatever way they go, will not be the last word.  Of course, MAGA will fight the result, if it loses.  Over the longer term, it will be overtaken by change.

Despite efforts to block “the browning of America,” the make-up of the American population is gradually changing.  The Census Bureau forecasts that no one racial group will be a majority after 2044. 

Educated women wield new political power and anti-abortion efforts stimulate their increased involvement.  Racial attacks increase Black and Latino participation.  Climate change raises broader environmental concerns.  As it always has, immigration will change the country.

Liberal Democrats should neither panic nor hunker down while fearing eventual MAGA long-term rule.  They should agree on and pursue their own agenda and not merely respond to Trump. The moment when MAGA loses its hold could come anytime.

The greatest victim of the MAGA movement has been historically constructive American conservatism.  Traditional conservatives could retake the Republican Party.  The country needs them to get back into the political system.

This long view points to a day when “Make America Great Again” might be only an historic relic.