Gordon L. Weil
Running under the surface of all politics these days is next
year’s battle for congressional control.
It will amount to a report card on President Trump, and it could set the
terms for his administration’s final years and the 2028 presidential elections.
Trump knows that. This week he made a televised address that sounded
like a campaign speech. He asked voters
to withhold their judgment on his promises until they see the results next
year. Meanwhile, without the required
congressional approval, he may make transition payments to taxpayers, beginning
with a bonus to military personnel.
That he is desperate to turn around his falling poll ratings
was evident from his false claims and extravagant promises. For example, no reduction in drug prices could
exceed 100 percent, but he promised more – “even 600 percent.” His speech contained none of the bipartisan
appeal of a traditional presidential address; it was pure Trump campaigning.
Can he hold onto the congressional control that gives him the
ability to do almost anything he wants?
The 2026 elections hold the answer.
The Republican majority now hold a narrow and fluctuating majority
in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate.
The party of an incumbent president usually loses seats in midterm
elections. Since Franklin D. Roosevelt,
only Bill Clinton and the second George Bush picked up seats. Unlike Trump, they both enjoyed high popularity
at the time.
The Democrats should flip the House. Trump believes GOP gerrymandering can produce
new Republican seats to offset Democratic gains. The Democrats have reacted by trying to redistrict
in states they control.
Even if he is right, a GOP House majority might no longer give
him unlimited power. MAGA loyalists
dislike his changing positions on releasing the Epstein files, and his foreign
moves. The obviously limited role
allowed House GOP women is also beginning to cause problems. MAGA members have begun to defy Speaker Mike
Johnson, on whom he relies.
The Senate is not subject to redistricting. The GOP may now feel safe, but history shows
that, like the House, Senate midterm races are influenced by the president’s
popularity.
The election results yield several possible scenarios.
The third term scenario.
Republicans retain control of both houses and act as if Trumpism would
roll on in 2028. Fearful of his ability
to defeat them in primaries, GOP members continue to allow him broad powers.
The lame duck scenario.
No matter which party controls one or both houses, Trump’s influence
fades. Members look forward to no longer
having him at the top of the ticket, and being forced to run on their own
records.
The Democrats would try to create issues for 2028, as they
have with healthcare assistance. If they control the House, they would have an
enhanced forum to make their case.
Stalemate scenario. If
the Democrats win the House, they will be able to block at least some of the
president’s proposals. If Trump holds
fast to his treatment of the Democrats as “the enemy,” the government could be
deadlocked. The 2028 presidential campaign
becomes the sole focus.
If the Democrats win the Senate, it could mean political war. They could block Trump’s nominees to the courts
and executive agencies. While his veto
would limit their chances to dictate their own policies, his power would be
substantially reduced. His eyes on the
Prize, he would concentrate on foreign affairs, where congressional power is
limited.
Compromise scenario.
If the Democrats were to control either or both houses, Trump could decide
to try to make deals with them, in line with political tradition. His concern with his legacy is greater than
his commitment to GOP conservatism. He
wants to be seen positively and hailed for great achievements, so compromise
could yield more for him than conflict.
That could explain his surprisingly friendly encounter with
Zohran Mamdani, the newly elected New York city mayor. He was friendly to Mamdani, making many MAGA
backers nervous. Just as an aging President Biden faded from
the scene, Trump could compensate for his aging by being less combative.
The Democrats’ burden would then face the choice of either
cooperating, which the polls say people want, or seeking partisan redlines as a
way of striking a clear contrast with Trump and undermining 2028 Trumpism.
The media focus is now on gerrymandering and the contest to
redraw House maps, but the real 2026 contest may be about whether Trump has retained
enough popularity to carry on. Or is
the electorate returning to more traditional GOP conservatism and regaining some
confidence in the Democrats?
Mere opposition to Trump is not enough as the Democratic platform. While they may not achieve total unity, the
Democrats need better leadership and to offer practical alternatives with bipartisan
appeal if they want to stage a comeback next year.
