Gordon L. Weil
Lurking behind almost all political speculation about the
Trump regime is whether low poll ratings of him and his performance may
translate into the results of the 2026 congressional elections.
If the Trump GOP can hold onto control of both the House and
Senate, Trump could be emboldened to extend his efforts to reshape not only the
American government but the entire nation. If the Democrats gain some political leverage,
they would have a chance at halting his progress or even reversing some of his
changes.
While he is making drastic changes to the way the government
operates, aided thus far by a supportive Supreme Court, the best
national polls, based on their careful and publicly revealed methods, show
that his performance is unpopular, as is each of his major policy moves.
The likely electorate is about evenly divided between Republicans,
Democrats and independents. While he
continues to enjoy strong support among the Trump GOP, the Democrats
steadfastly oppose, and a clear majority of independents joins them. Will these sentiments convert into votes for
Democrats and independents or will partisan loyalties prevail at the ballot box
in 2026?
The latest NY
Times/Siena poll reveals the doubts of some Republicans. Asked if Trump’s “actions go so far that they
are a unique threat to our system of government,” 45 percent of Republicans
said they did. Even 17 percent of
Republicans said he is exceeding his lawful powers. And 26 percent thought he had gone too far in
attacking the media.
On possibly the most important question, given Trump’s
promises to improve the economy, 42 percent of Republicans said his moves had
not made much of a difference to them.
People who have been struggling with prices and wages offered him
support in 2024. Without improvement in
their lives, some become possible defectors.
If some of Trump’s key policies were receiving a net
positive response, they might outweigh these sentiments. But they aren’t, possibly leaving him with
the hope that his forecast of a thriving economy works next year and impresses
voters just in time.
Without a strong and unified Democratic Party, this could
mean that the 2026 elections, though focused on Congress, would be a referendum
on Trump. Before the vote, the Democrats
could better target their campaign to the concerns of a broad number of voters –
the economy, health care, and jobs. Or
Trump could abruptly change course, at least on some issues.
Beyond the possible loss of some Republicans, so
disillusioned with Trump that they would vote against him, the other election rebalancing
could be a higher turnout than usual for a congressional election year. The electorate shrank
between the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections, including many Democrats, so some
absentees might come back to vote.
While the 2026 elections could look like a referendum, they
will consist of 435 separate House races and 35 Senate contests (including two
special elections). Conventional wisdom is
that the party opposing the president usually picks up seats. With only a four-seat
margin now, the Trump GOP is trying to gerrymander districts to allow them to surmount
the conventional outcome.
Both parties usually win most House districts by large margins,
especially when aided by incumbency. But,
in 2024, each won enough seats by a margin of less than five
percent to be able to tip the balance in their favor, if they hold their own
and pick up a few close races they had lost.
Democrats (and independents) would be likely to focus on GOP
seats in Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Texas and Florida. Those seats could make the difference.
The Senate is different and closer to a referendum, because
national issues often arise in statewide races.
Twenty-two Republican seats and only 13 Democratic slots are at stake.
The most vulnerable Senate Republican is Maine’s Susan Collins. Despite her easy past wins, the Democrats will
challenge her Trump support, and she is polling
poorly. Open seats held by the GOP in
Iowa, Kentucky and North Carolina will be highly contested. Perhaps surprisingly, even Texas, Ohio and Alaska
could be in play.
While the Democrats could regain House control, they are
unlikely to move from their 47 seats (including two independents) in the Senate
to the 60 that would give them a veto over Trump, unless he faces a tidal wave
of rejection. But they could set the
Senate agenda with only a simple majority, as the GOP now does.
This analysis does not suggest that the Democrats will pick
up control of either house, just that it’s possible, depending mainly on Trump.
But he has become more vulnerable since
his inauguration.
The campaign may have just begun with the shutdown clash. We are entering into the season of speculation as more state and local elections, including New York City, build toward next year’s vote.
