Showing posts with label Summer Olympics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Summer Olympics. Show all posts

Friday, May 24, 2024

Political redlines vanish amid partisan fury

Opens way for more authoritarian rule 

Gordon L. Weil



“How dare you attack the physical appearance of another person,” fumed Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, after GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene criticized the appearance of another female House committee member. Greene’s statement might have had racial overtones.

Greene had lashed out against a colleague’s eyelashes and Ocasio-Cortes’ retort, dissing Greene’s figure, both crossed a “redline” of acceptable behavior. However strong their partisanship, members of Congress traditionally have stayed away from personally attacking their opponents based on their appearance, race, age or religion.

A “redline” is supposed to serve as a warning: if you cross the line, you risk suffering adverse consequences. Hence, the relatively minor House committee exchange.

The idea is that you “draw a line in the sand” that is the acceptable limit. It’s a poor analogy, because, given the softness of sand, that line is increasingly and easily blown away.

In the late 1940s, Arthur Vandenberg was a Republican senator during Democratic President Harry Truman’s administration. While he might oppose Truman’s foreign policy, he asserted that Congress should unite behind the policy once adopted and make it bipartisan. “Politics stops at the water’s edge,” he said. That was a redline.

Recently, New York Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik addressed the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, to criticize President Biden’s Israel-Gaza positions. She is a member of House leadership and an ardent supporter of Donald Trump. Vandenberg’s redline crossed.

Her party’s once and hopeful president shows no restraint in attacking the policies of other American political leaders while abroad. He sees the world as his campaign stage and does not worry that a lack of foreign policy continuity, even allowing for its evolution, is essential for maintaining confidence in the U.S. For him, politics does not stop at the water’s edge.

When political leaders adopt no-redlines policies, the effect can get out of hand. People can take politicians’ wild admonitions as permission or even encouragement for taking physical action. A federal court may someday get to decide if the January 6 Capitol insurrection responded to Trump’s call to “fight like hell.”

Members of Congress, judges, prosecutors and witnesses are now physically threatened. If the operation of the federal system is pushed aside by threats or injury caused by a relative few incensed about a decision, it is also endangered. That system is not perfect, but it has rules, the redlines all have agreed to observe to protect officials.

The bias of Florida federal District Court Judge Aileen Cannon toward Trump is so evident that it is embarrassing to her and the judiciary. The people rely on courts to provide at least the appearance of not taking sides between the parties. But her efforts to excessively complicate and delay the Trump documents retention case destroy any such impartiality.

Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito’s home flew an American flag upside down at the time of the Capitol insurrection. That intended political support for Trump is likely illegal under the Flag Code and raises doubts about his fairness in political cases. He blamed it on his wife, a claim that insults peoples’ intelligence and cannot pass the straight-face test.

His apologists resort to whataboutism, claiming that Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg opposed candidate Trump before the 2016 election. Assuming that’s true, two wrongs still don’t make a right to wipe out an established redline against the appearance of bias.

Before that same election, a tape revealed Trump’s having groped women, feeling his celebrity gave him license. Surprisingly even to him, society’s redline against such behavior was swept away by millions of voters.

The U.S. House Speaker heads a cornerstone institution of the federal government. Part of the Speaker’s job is to maintain the dignity and stature of the House, independent of the Senate and president. But Speaker Mike Johnson dashed to New York to stand in the street supporting Trump in a N.Y. state trial. Redline gone.

Given the power, role and influence of the president, candidates and incumbents have for decades made their full medical and tax records public. Trump never did either and the media took note and simply moved on. Trump and Biden, for his medical data, have given themselves a free ride. Redline deathbed?

Customs have grown up to make the bare bones of constitutional government work. Over time, these customs take the form of the redlines around the behavior of the people who operate that government. When redlines can be crossed without any penalty, the essential understandings that allow a political system to operate across a vast territory and population can be lost.

Of course, customs and redlines must evolve as the world changes. What was once not allowed can become acceptable. But this evolution must continue to protect or enhance the people’s rights. If it is abrupt, arbitrary or self-serving, crossing redlines leads to more authoritarian government.

Friday, May 10, 2024

‘Figures don’t lie’ except when they do

Political polls far from ‘scientific’ 

Gordon L. Weil

“Lies, damned lies and statistics.”  

That old saying about the levels of lying both reveals and warns about the excessive use and misuse of numbers.

People love numbers.  Rankings and ratings are the basis of decisions that may determine matters ranging from which country is a world power to what toaster browns bread best to where a student should go to college.

These decisions matter, but they may be based on flimsy data.  Because we place much confidence in numbers, they become the tools or weapons of those seeking to impress or convince us.   Every day, we are flooded with facts and factoids by supposed experts who keep pumping out statistics.

The reason why numbers seem to be the gateway to the truth is that science relies heavily on numerical data.  A scientific law can be verified all the time by data and observation.  People who disagree on almost everything can accept scientific proof of a law of nature.

Sir Isaac Newton discovered the law of gravity, and its existence can be endlessly proved by observation and measurement.  It was not merely his opinion, wrapped in numbers.

Science distinguishes laws from theory.  Theory can be tested against alternative explanations.  Many numbers today would give us the same impression of certainty that we get from a scientific law.  In fact, they are so far from the real truth that they wouldn’t even qualify as theory. 

Take the Summer Olympics, soon to occur in Paris, which will produce numbers that are widely accepted as the truth.  Athletes will be proclaimed as winners, the best in the world.  Countries will engage in a race for the most medals, which somehow will indicate their superior standing among the nations of the world. 

Russia seeks to pile up medals in the belief that winning more medals is an indicator of its superiority.   So, it cheats by doping its athletes.   The late, unlamented East Germany used extensive doping to boost its international reputation.

Some events, like gymnastics and artistic swimming, are judged not scored, but awarded numerical rankings.  Judges rate break dancing, a newly added athletic event.  Baseball, which produces a score, has long been excluded. 

Athletic judges may make personal judgments, yet they contribute to the same medal count as timed races.  In fact, most ratings and rankings are based at least in part on the opinions and values of the raters and judges and not on standards required by good science. 

Among the most popular numbers are the college rankings that help young students decide where to pursue their education.  The numbers are unreliable.  The components may change, undermining long-term comparisons.    Information provided by colleges to raters may be falsified, fudged or incomplete.  Yet the rankings are revered.

When they hand out the Academy Award Oscars, do they truly go to the best picture or best performer?  The current ranked choice voting could produce a distorted result reflecting popularity and prejudice more than quality.  Some big mistakes have been made in the past. The best picture could be everybody’s second choice.

When it comes to ratings, from military power to movies, always beware of the word “best.”

Probably the subject where we most willingly follow questionable numbers too closely is public opinion polling about elections.  Numbers are published with so-called “margins of errors” that give the data the appearance of science.  Yet we know little or nothing about who participated or whether questions were fair.  What was the bias of the pollster?

And a survey is only a snapshot; the world can change.  Six months ago, few responses would have been influenced by events in the Middle East, but the Israel-Gaza situation is now a major issue.  How and how much will it influence voter preferences about six months from now?  And many other key issues may look different by then.

The message that emerges from our excessive reliance on numbers of dubious validity is that they should not be taken at face value. None of the daily flood of data that drowns us is truly scientific, no matter any claim.  Still, it may be as good as we can get it.

Perhaps the most useful information we derive from rankings and ratings is whether they change over time and, if so, by how much. Biden’s or Trump’s ratings moving by a point or two over a few days are probably meaningless.  If a trend continues long enough, a voter may begin to understand who is gaining or losing.

If we are not skeptical of statistics, we risk accepting politics as if it were nothing more than an athletic competition.  Poll numbers, like other statistics, are not perfect, and they are often overanalyzed.

The biggest risk is that another old saying may apply: “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure.”