Close election? Don't count on it

Gordon L. Weil

“It don’t mean a thing, if you ain’t got that swing.”  That’s the name of an old popular song.

It could be the theme song of this year’s presidential election.  And it may be the key to a big win for Kamela Harris, not the expected close election.  Instead of barely scraping by, as the pundits and polls now forecast, she could win by a convincingly large margin.

We are constantly reminded that in a few states, a few votes could determine the result.  Because the outcome could go either way, that makes them swing states, while the results in all others are considered to be locked in. 

But the election across the country may depend on the changing preferences of key groups of voters.  Swing voters could have an effect in many states beyond the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

Who are these groups?  Voters over 65, disaffected Republicans, Latinos, Asians and rural residents.  And the biggest group – women.

Beyond these groups are those whose leanings are known, and the question is if they will turn out to vote and have unimpeded access to the ballot box.   They are Blacks and young people.

As I’ve repeatedly noted, the so-called suburban women with a post-high school education have become a major voting force.  They outnumber the blue-collar men having no education beyond high school.

Not only do they outnumber the supposed Trump core, but they vote at a higher rate. They are reported to be better motivated in this election because of the abortion issue.  And they are becoming a separately identified and independent minded political force.

Older voters have traditionally been Republican supporters, but they have become almost evenly divided between the two presidential candidates.  They show up to vote at a higher rate than any other age group, so this shift could move active voters from one camp to another.  The same trend may be true for rural voters.

Clearly, Trump forces have taken control of the GOP from traditional economic conservatives.  While many Republicans will remain faithful to the ticket, others are now in play. Will they hold their noses and vote for Harris or will they stay home? 

Their leader is likely to be Liz Cheney, the former Wyoming GOP member of Congress. While she was soundly defeated in the party primary by a Trump backer, she retained a share of her state’s Republican voters.  Now that she has spoken out against Trump, millions of disaffected Republicans across the country might follow her lead.

Latino and Asian voters are not expected to depart from their usual voting patterns.  Much support will remain with Trump.  But to the extent that their support is loosened, possibly because they are uncomfortable with his style, they weaken his chances.  Given that he has likely hit his maximum level of support, he cannot afford such defections.

Black voters had been reported as lacking enthusiasm for President Biden leading to a reduced turnout and some even turning to Trump.  Their loss was a major problem for Biden.  But Harris, firmly recognized as a Black, despite Trump having tried to create doubt, can bring them back.

The constitutional amendment allowing voting at age 18 has been a disappointment as many young people have remained aloof from politics. But issues ranging from abortion to Gaza appear to be creating a wave of new registrations among the youth.  The Democrats think they stand to gain from first-time voters.

These swing voters may not only be a factor in the seven swing states, but are likely to appear to some extent in almost all states.  That may mean that states rated as solidly in the Republican camp could move closer to being in play.

Florida, once a toss-up state, has been thought to be a win for Trump.  Texas, seeming to be firmly under Republican domination, has been seen as a sure thing for him.  Neither now appears likely to disappoint him.  But the gap between Trump and Harris has narrowed to the point where both, with a total of 70 electoral votes, have lost their certainty for Trump.

The campaign is far from over.  Trump could win half of the swing states. He could try to slug it out in Pennsylvania, a state critically important for Harris.  And, of course, there could be major, unforeseen events that can radically change the election outlook.

But if the swing voters turn out to make a difference across the country with their shift not limited to the swing states, Harris could gain a major victory.  Her momentum matters.

Not only would such a win give her a clear mandate, but it would undermine any disruptive Trump “Stop the Steal” effort and promote an orderly transition.

Close election?  Don’t count on it. 

‘The Big Mo’ -- Harris needs momentum; Trump would block it

 

Gordon L. Weil

Political candidates want “The Big Mo” – big momentum.

The idea, which originated in professional sports in the 1960s, soon spread to politics.  The theory is that momentum influences how people vote. Progress promotes progress.

In this year’s presidential race, we may see momentum. That’s because the 100-day campaign is much shorter than it has been in more than half a century.  President Biden’s withdrawal produced a new Democratic candidate and entirely changed the landscape for the challenger. 

Not only is the campaign brief, but also both candidates start from scratch.  Though her success came rapidly, Vice President Kamala Harris could not begin her campaign until she had lined up the necessary delegate support.  For former President Donald Trump, it meant going “back to the old drawing board” to redesign his campaign.

For Harris, given the declining Biden support, there’s nowhere to go but up and momentum is essential.  She needs to restore Democratic unity and gain among independents and disaffected Republicans.  For Trump, who may have peaked just short of 50 percent, the challenge is stalling her momentum by adding to his core support.

The shorter campaign with its necessarily sharper focus might increase voter interest between now and November 5.  In this short race, the vice-presidential picks could be a factor.

Trump’s choice of hard-hitting JD Vance was meant to appeal to Mid-America’s workers. So far, Vance has not boosted Trump’s standing.  Harris’ had the same intent with Tim Walz.  She may hope that his affable style plus his greater federal government experience than Trump, Vance or herself can add to her momentum.

The media plays a critical role in how campaign interest develops.  Aside from the purely partisan players like MSNBC and Fox, preaching to the faithful, many voters develop their impressions of candidates from the media’s coverage.  Media messages may not be explicit, but can be tilted.

Of course, money also matters. With huge war chests, candidates’ paid media conveys often exaggerated or false information, focusing more on the opposition than themselves.  That can motivate their supporters and influence people who accept the video spots as fact.  The bias is obvious but still can be influential.

A driving force behind media attitudes is opinion polling.  The polls now come in a daily torrent.  Every day’s little movement, even within the so-called margin of error, influences the media. Does it focus on Harris’ experience or inexperience?   On Trump’s policies or his posing?  The polls may guide the coverage.

As frequently noted in this column, polls have serious defects, ranging from the refusal of many voters to participate to the undisclosed bias of the pollsters.  So, survey numbers should be viewed with skepticism.

But they are useful in at least one respect. They reveal momentum.  If a candidate’s numbers are steadily growing, that shows positive momentum.  At that point, the media can be expected to become more positive about a candidate whose support is growing.  In turn, more positive media coverage can stimulate more positive poll results.

Handle with care. The poll results are fragile and can be affected by a single major event.  The bottom fell out for Biden after his debate failure in a way that could not have been foreseen.  That one evening changed the entire election campaign.  If the event or error is big enough, simple coverage of it can affect voters.

Much of the media and voter focus is on the national poll standing of the candidates.  That’s not really helpful, because we do not have a national, popular election.  Given the way the electoral vote works, a Democrat is likely to need a solid lead in the country as a whole to be assured of gaining enough electoral votes.  Running even with a GOP opponent may not do the job.

Where history has shown close races, the media focuses on swing states that might determine the election outcome.  Polling may focus on individual states, but the surveys may be intermittent or incompetent. The same concerns apply as for national polling.

The greater the margin between the two alternatives, the more reliable are the poll results.  Statistics show that survey data is more reliable the wider the gap.  Here polling momentum can matter, flowing through to the media and back again.  Within the margin of error, differences don’t matter.

Trump must try to block any Harris momentum by extending his appeal beyond his MAGA core.  If he holds onto Republican conservatives, he could win.

Harris has benefitted from increased party unity following her selection and may get a lift from the Democratic National Convention. 

Can she capture “the Big Mo” next month?  If her progress is more than a polling “bounce,” she could surprise with a solid victory. The bigger her margin, the lower the likelihood of an effective Trump post-election challenge.

Trump-Harris race confused by wild speculation

 

Gordon L. Weil

Last December, I wrote a column headed, “Biden versus Trump? Not so fast.”  A month earlier, I had described a scenario in which Trump could face somebody other than Biden.

I recall these columns not to say, “I told you so,” but to underline again how much we should be skeptical of campaign punditry and polling.

Between now and Election Day, there will be a new and short campaign with former president Trump and Sen. J. D. Vance facing Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate.  That’s all we really know.

Within seconds of Biden withdrawing and endorsing Harris, the pundits hit the media. The range of subjects on which they began speculating was breathtaking, sacrificing thoughtful analysis for the sake of speed.  Notably, comments instantly criticized Harris, going tougher on her than it had on Vance, when Trump named him.

These shoot-from-the-hip opinions will probably prove worthless and will soon be forgotten, to be replaced by new rounds of punditry.  Right now, it is more useful simply to focus on the “known unknowns” about the race.

Why will Harris be the Democratic nominee?

Any challenger would have a tough time overcoming Harris’ advantage as the heir to the Biden-Harris campaign.  The campaign will be short, so the Democrats opted not to spend weeks in a nomination contest ending at an open convention. 

Does Biden’s withdrawal improve the Democratic Party’s chances for the presidency?

With Biden having appeared increasingly weak, voters may no longer worry about the age of both candidates.  Harris is younger and more connected to middle-aged and young voters.   Democrats, especially donors, seem to be enthusiastic about her.  That should improve the party’s prospects, but is far from ensuring a win.

Does the focus on Trump change?

He will now be the old man of the election and that could change perceptions of him and increase attention to his oratorical confusion and false statements.  Harris could exploit his weaknesses as Biden couldn’t and try to change the focus from being a referendum on Trump.  She might push her own agenda, while dismissing his attacks and recalling his legal woes.   

Who will the Democrats pick as their vice-presidential candidate?

They have the opportunity to avoid an elite image. Trump chose mid-American Vance, and the Democrats may be tempted to pick a male candidate from Arizona, Kentucky, Pennsylvania or North Carolina, an election victor in a GOP state who could help Harris in swing states.

Has the influence of women in the election changed?

With Harris heading the ticket, women might be even more engaged than they have been, because of the abortion issue.   The battle for the suburbs could turn on the votes of women determined to show up at the polls.  She may attract some supporters of Nikki Haley, the last GOP opponent to Trump’s nomination.

What about Black voters?

They were reportedly losing some enthusiasm for Biden.  Harris is a graduate of Howard University, a leading Black school.  That contrasts even with former president Obama’s education at Ivy League universities.  Her background could help motivate Black voters, who might swing the election.

Will there be debates and will they matter?

Both say they want to debate, but they must first agree on the media and rules. Trump may not want the CNN rules, preferring a format that allows him the chance to interrupt.  Harris may try to put him on the defensive in her own style, distinct from Biden’s or Hillary Clinton’s.  A debate could be the high point of the campaign and make the election into a real contest.

Is there something happening below the surface?

Voters pick the president. But who gets to the ballot box matters, and Trump’s GOP is ready to make voting access difficult. If he loses, Trump will inevitably challenge the result and is already preparing.  It’s not clear if the Democrats are ready to deal, quickly and effectively, with both attempts.

Could something unexpected happen?

Yes.  The debate, the assassination attempt on Trump, and Biden’s withdrawal have had major unforeseen effects.  Candidates are vulnerable in many ways, especially to their own failings.  A single unexpected event could still change everything.

Will pundits promote a clear view of the election?

Unlikely.  The “experts” change their views as often as they change their clothes.  They engage more in speculation than in careful analysis.  A single day’s news event becomes the foundation of their short-term take on long-term wisdom.

What about opinion polls?

Their problems in finding willing participants and phrasing questions are well known.  In this new political situation, they are likely to be unreliable at the outset.  Polls appearing just before the elections are likely to be the most valid forecasts.

Bottom line on the election?

Be skeptical. Avoid speculation. There’s a lot we don’t yet know.