Gordon L. Weil
Last December, I wrote a column headed, “Biden versus Trump?
Not so fast.” A month earlier, I had described
a scenario in which Trump could face somebody other than Biden.
I recall these columns not to say, “I told you so,” but to underline
again how much we should be skeptical of campaign punditry and polling.
Between now and Election Day, there will be a new and short
campaign with former president Trump and Sen. J. D. Vance facing Vice President
Kamala Harris and her running mate. That’s
all we really know.
Within seconds of Biden withdrawing and endorsing Harris,
the pundits hit the media. The range of subjects on which they began speculating
was breathtaking, sacrificing thoughtful analysis for the sake of speed. Notably, comments instantly criticized Harris,
going tougher on her than it had on Vance, when Trump named him.
These shoot-from-the-hip opinions will probably prove
worthless and will soon be forgotten, to be replaced by new rounds of punditry.
Right now, it is more useful simply to focus
on the “known unknowns” about the race.
Why will Harris be the Democratic nominee?
Any challenger would have a tough time overcoming Harris’
advantage as the heir to the Biden-Harris campaign. The campaign will be short, so the Democrats opted
not to spend weeks in a nomination contest ending at an open convention.
Does Biden’s withdrawal improve the Democratic Party’s chances
for the presidency?
With Biden having appeared increasingly weak, voters may no
longer worry about the age of both candidates.
Harris is younger and more connected to middle-aged and young voters. Democrats, especially donors, seem to be
enthusiastic about her. That should improve
the party’s prospects, but is far from ensuring a win.
Does the focus on Trump change?
He will now be the old man of the election and that could
change perceptions of him and increase attention to his oratorical confusion
and false statements. Harris could exploit
his weaknesses as Biden couldn’t and try to change the focus from being a
referendum on Trump. She might push her
own agenda, while dismissing his attacks and recalling his legal woes.
Who will the Democrats pick as their vice-presidential
candidate?
They have the opportunity to avoid an elite image. Trump
chose mid-American Vance, and the Democrats may be tempted to pick a male candidate
from Arizona, Kentucky, Pennsylvania or North Carolina, an election victor in a
GOP state who could help Harris in swing states.
Has the influence of women in the election changed?
With Harris heading the ticket, women might be even more
engaged than they have been, because of the abortion issue. The battle for the suburbs could turn on the
votes of women determined to show up at the polls. She may attract some supporters of Nikki
Haley, the last GOP opponent to Trump’s nomination.
What about Black voters?
They were reportedly losing some enthusiasm for Biden. Harris is a graduate of Howard University, a leading
Black school. That contrasts even with
former president Obama’s education at Ivy League universities. Her background could help motivate Black
voters, who might swing the election.
Will there be debates and will they matter?
Both say they want to debate, but they must first agree on
the media and rules. Trump may not want the CNN rules, preferring a format that
allows him the chance to interrupt.
Harris may try to put him on the defensive in her own style, distinct
from Biden’s or Hillary Clinton’s. A
debate could be the high point of the campaign and make the election into a
real contest.
Is there something happening below the surface?
Voters pick the president. But who gets to the ballot box
matters, and Trump’s GOP is ready to make voting access difficult. If he loses,
Trump will inevitably challenge the result and is already preparing. It’s not clear if the Democrats are ready to
deal, quickly and effectively, with both attempts.
Could something unexpected happen?
Yes. The debate, the assassination
attempt on Trump, and Biden’s withdrawal have had major unforeseen effects. Candidates are vulnerable in many ways,
especially to their own failings. A single
unexpected event could still change everything.
Will pundits promote a clear view of the election?
Unlikely. The “experts”
change their views as often as they change their clothes. They engage more in speculation than in
careful analysis. A single day’s news
event becomes the foundation of their short-term take on long-term wisdom.
What about opinion polls?
Their problems in finding willing participants and phrasing questions
are well known. In this new political
situation, they are likely to be unreliable at the outset. Polls appearing just before the elections are likely
to be the most valid forecasts.
Bottom line on the election?
Be skeptical. Avoid speculation. There’s a lot we don’t yet
know.
