Power of the superpowers on the wane
Rise of the 'middle powers'
Gordon L. Weil
The idea that the world can be dominated by superpowers is
outmoded. There soon may be no superpowers left, especially as the U.S. quits
aspiring to the status.
A superpower is nation that, when it says “jump,” smaller
countries jump. A superpower can
influence events anywhere in the world or at least in large parts of it. Each may use an array of measures, overt and
covert, legal and illegal, to gain an advantage over another. Most of the remaining countries are either
spectators or victims.
Why does a nation want to be a superpower? The obvious but incorrect answer is
territory. Of course, the country wants
to be surrounded by a buffer of states.
From that comes the idea of a central nation and its satellites. A country may not need to occupy others, so
long as it can be assured of a sympathetic and compliant regime.
A superpower seeks to show that it produces better results
than any other nation and the greatest benefit for itself and its people (or at
least its ruling class). To accomplish
these goals, it must bend others to its will and make them tributaries to its
success. Its tools for domination may be
military, economic or political.
At the end of World War II, analysts saw three superpowers,
based mostly on the size, reach and the power of their armed forces. Foremost was the U.S, the leader and supplier
of the other two – the Soviet Union and Great Britain.
Soon, there were only two.
Britain didn’t have the economic strength to retain its role. The U.S. could treat it like a satellite, and
India and other colonial possessions could rebel and shed its rule, a pattern
set by its earliest lost colony in 1776.
Later, there would be only one superpower. The Soviet Union underwent a process similar
to Britain and even faced growing discontent at home when its people began to
see how well others lived. It
disintegrated and Russia, though the second nuclear power, stayed onstage but
no longer a star.
Its failure to gain a victory in Ukraine revealed that its
power was overrated. NATO worried about
its potential aggression along its borders, so expanded and regrouped. Russia was no longer the cosmic threat its had
once been, and it could be deterred.
The conventional wisdom after the Soviet Union was that,
dominated by a benevolent and democratic America that had no territorial
designs, a kind of permanent peace could prevail with Uncle Sam as the world’s
top cop.
Pax Americana was undermined by at least three forces. One was terrorism, the ability of non-state
players, to shape world events. A
superpower could seem vulnerable when others toppled its key buildings and
successfully thwarted its policies.
Another change came from China, the historical giant that
was modernizing itself into a world force.
It is a military threat in its Asian neighborhood. It wants Taiwan, and knows the U.S. won’t sacrifice
American lives to protect that island. In
the South China Sea, China probably wouldn’t risk conflict by attacking
American planes or ships if they are kept on station.
Then came Trump’s ego.
He focuses on his personal influence and fame and the accumulation of an
ever-larger fortune. While he uses
American power, especially the U.S. military, to support his goals, he may
undermine its superpower status. His
inconsistency has made America appear weak.
He launched a war on Iran.
As Russia’s Putin learned, when the limits of his arms supply were
revealed, the reputation of American armed forces suffered. Also, seeking control of the Fed, he weakened
confidence in the dollar, possibly the most powerful instrument of the
country’s domination. Overreaching led
to underperforming.
Finally, there is the superpower that never happened. The
creation of the European Union was meant to yield a new world economic and
military power. On the military side,
the EU hired out its defense to the U.S.
It’s better at talk than action on foreign and defense issues, leaving
decisions to 27 governments, each with veto power.
The EU integrated national economies, preventing the
Europeans from attacking one another and launching another world war. That worked.
Through supranationalism, Europe was supposed to become the partner of
the U.S., almost its equal. That didn’t
work. Nationalism survives; Europe’s
flag and anthem are purely symbolic. In
short, it can’t get its act together.
In effect, the world is arriving at competition more than
conflict among the waning superpowers. A
new model is coming from countries, like India, Saudi Arabia and Canada, that
are increasingly adept in dealing with China, Russia and America.
Canada’s Prime Minister Carney issued what others have called
a “declaration of independence.” Those
he labelled as “middle powers,” including European nations, may be the most
influential actors in world affairs.
