‘Figures don’t lie’ except when they do

Political polls far from ‘scientific’ 

Gordon L. Weil

“Lies, damned lies and statistics.”  

That old saying about the levels of lying both reveals and warns about the excessive use and misuse of numbers.

People love numbers.  Rankings and ratings are the basis of decisions that may determine matters ranging from which country is a world power to what toaster browns bread best to where a student should go to college.

These decisions matter, but they may be based on flimsy data.  Because we place much confidence in numbers, they become the tools or weapons of those seeking to impress or convince us.   Every day, we are flooded with facts and factoids by supposed experts who keep pumping out statistics.

The reason why numbers seem to be the gateway to the truth is that science relies heavily on numerical data.  A scientific law can be verified all the time by data and observation.  People who disagree on almost everything can accept scientific proof of a law of nature.

Sir Isaac Newton discovered the law of gravity, and its existence can be endlessly proved by observation and measurement.  It was not merely his opinion, wrapped in numbers.

Science distinguishes laws from theory.  Theory can be tested against alternative explanations.  Many numbers today would give us the same impression of certainty that we get from a scientific law.  In fact, they are so far from the real truth that they wouldn’t even qualify as theory. 

Take the Summer Olympics, soon to occur in Paris, which will produce numbers that are widely accepted as the truth.  Athletes will be proclaimed as winners, the best in the world.  Countries will engage in a race for the most medals, which somehow will indicate their superior standing among the nations of the world. 

Russia seeks to pile up medals in the belief that winning more medals is an indicator of its superiority.   So, it cheats by doping its athletes.   The late, unlamented East Germany used extensive doping to boost its international reputation.

Some events, like gymnastics and artistic swimming, are judged not scored, but awarded numerical rankings.  Judges rate break dancing, a newly added athletic event.  Baseball, which produces a score, has long been excluded. 

Athletic judges may make personal judgments, yet they contribute to the same medal count as timed races.  In fact, most ratings and rankings are based at least in part on the opinions and values of the raters and judges and not on standards required by good science. 

Among the most popular numbers are the college rankings that help young students decide where to pursue their education.  The numbers are unreliable.  The components may change, undermining long-term comparisons.    Information provided by colleges to raters may be falsified, fudged or incomplete.  Yet the rankings are revered.

When they hand out the Academy Award Oscars, do they truly go to the best picture or best performer?  The current ranked choice voting could produce a distorted result reflecting popularity and prejudice more than quality.  Some big mistakes have been made in the past. The best picture could be everybody’s second choice.

When it comes to ratings, from military power to movies, always beware of the word “best.”

Probably the subject where we most willingly follow questionable numbers too closely is public opinion polling about elections.  Numbers are published with so-called “margins of errors” that give the data the appearance of science.  Yet we know little or nothing about who participated or whether questions were fair.  What was the bias of the pollster?

And a survey is only a snapshot; the world can change.  Six months ago, few responses would have been influenced by events in the Middle East, but the Israel-Gaza situation is now a major issue.  How and how much will it influence voter preferences about six months from now?  And many other key issues may look different by then.

The message that emerges from our excessive reliance on numbers of dubious validity is that they should not be taken at face value. None of the daily flood of data that drowns us is truly scientific, no matter any claim.  Still, it may be as good as we can get it.

Perhaps the most useful information we derive from rankings and ratings is whether they change over time and, if so, by how much. Biden’s or Trump’s ratings moving by a point or two over a few days are probably meaningless.  If a trend continues long enough, a voter may begin to understand who is gaining or losing.

If we are not skeptical of statistics, we risk accepting politics as if it were nothing more than an athletic competition.  Poll numbers, like other statistics, are not perfect, and they are often overanalyzed.

The biggest risk is that another old saying may apply: “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure.” 

Election math favors Republicans

Democrats need big win

Gordon L. Weil

If the Democrats want to win the elections, they will have to win big.  The numbers are against them.

The Democrats depend on, well, democracy.  They expect to win when they get a majority of the votes.  Maybe not.  They could lose the presidency and Congress because of election math.

In four presidential elections involving the two major parties, the new president did not win a majority of the popular vote.  All of the winners in these elections – Hayes (1876), Harrison (1888), Bush (2000) and Trump (2016) were Republicans.

This outcome, which could well occur again in 2024, because an understanding among the Framers of the Constitution has gone awry.  At the time they wrote the document, their plan would have resulted in the president being chosen by electors representing a popular majority.

Before the first census, the Framers assigned seats in the House of Representatives based on population estimates.  The result was that a presidential candidate relying on the smaller states would need nine states of the 13 to collect enough electoral votes.  Perhaps not coincidentally, the Framers required ratification by at least nine states for the Constitution itself to take effect.

But the Framers also understood that a candidate relying on the larger states might need only six states to win the presidency.  Those states’ electors would represent 55 percent of the population compared with the 51 percent represented in the smaller states group.

In either case, when the Constitution was drafted, the Framers could expect that the president would be elected by states inhabited by a popular majority even if not chosen by a majority of the states.

History did not follow that rule.  Today, it is mathematically possible for 41 smaller states to elect the president, though they have only 46 percent of the population.  At the other extreme, the president could be elected by 12 states with 60 percent of the population.

Of course, states do not vote by population blocs but by party.  Many small, rural states are controlled by the Republicans, who also dominate former Confederate states like Texas and Florida.  The Republican candidate can win even without a popular majority, as Donald Trump did in 2016.

The proposed National Popular Vote Interstate Compact would restore the traditional expectation of a popular majority.  States with a majority of electoral votes would agree that all will assign their votes to the presidential candidate having won the majority of the national popular vote.  They would only be bound if all participating states kept this commitment.

Maine has just become the most recent state to accept the National Popular Vote.   By narrowing the gap to only 61 more electoral votes needed to join, the state’s move is significant. 

Inevitably, the Supreme Court will be asked to rule on the Compact and almost certainly its decision will be heavily influenced by politics.  In theory, though, the national popular vote could occur without a compact as the result of independent decisions of states with 270 electoral votes.

Maine has also been in presidential focus thanks to the way it picks electors.  The state, later followed by Nebraska, decided to assign electors to the statewide victor and the winner in each congressional district.  Other states use the statewide winner-take-all. The Second District in each state has occasionally departed from the state’s total result.

Seeking another possible electoral vote for Donald Trump, Nebraska is considering returning to pure statewide voting, eliminating the possibility of Biden carrying Omaha.  A Maine Democratic leader has warned the Cornhuskers that Maine could retaliate by taking away the chance it gives Trump to win a single vote. 

Just as the current method of picking the president favors one party, so does electing members of Congress.  State legislatures can design congressional district boundaries to divide voting groups to produce biased results.  Gerrymandering sometimes aims at limiting seats held by Blacks, but it often focuses on favoring one party.

Both parties gerrymander, but the GOP makes its moves in Texas and Florida – the second and third largest states.  The Supreme Court tries to block racial gerrymandering, but avoids most political redistricting disputes, except where they have a racial effect.  Much gerrymandering has already taken place, so the Court would have to unravel past actions.

Added to such creative House redistricting will be voter suppression, often intended to limit minority voting.  It’s based on unproven Republican assertions of possible fraud in federal elections (but not in their own state races).   It undermines efforts to increase participation.

Popular control of elections won’t improve for this year’s elections.  The Democrats would have to focus attention on voting issues as a way to turn out their supporters.  Faced with election reality, capturing seats from the White House to Capitol Hill will require the Democrats winning by big margins and carrying swing states.

Polls miss major issues, GOP’s big problems

 

Gordon L. Weil

As we come to the final six months of the political campaigns, the polls predict close races. But a number of key questions remain and raise doubts.

Will there be one or more Trump trial verdicts and will he be acquitted or convicted?

Who will Trump pick as his running mate?

Will either Biden or Trump say or do something so outrageous or incompetent as to compromise their candidacy?

Will the health of Biden and Trump hold up under the pressures of the campaign?

Will Supreme Court decisions on abortion laws, student loan forgiveness or other issues influence voters?

Will the Republicans be able to keep up with Democratic fundraising?

Will the GOP successfully suppress voting?

Will swing voters – women, young people, traditional Republicans, Blacks – switch sides or stay home?

Add to the ultimate answers to these questions, the political reality that the Republicans now bear more of a disadvantage than might be expected. As campaigns grow more intense, these critical concerns may affect the GOP’s chances for success.

The first concern is Donald Trump, the once and hopeful president.  The election seems to be about him more than any issue or event.  His unusually faithful support comes from millions who admire his unfettered and outspoken style.  He makes his simple solutions to complex issues easy to grasp, a real advantage in a complicated world.

But just how far his faithful support can carry him remains to be seen.  While his presidency and candidacy have brought him a loyal core, they have also inspired an increasingly organized opposition.  Donald Trump is the biggest unifying force the Democrats have enjoyed in many years.

Trump’s courtroom tests add to his controversial candidacy.  Never before has the leader of a national ticket been embroiled in criminal proceedings during his campaign. This situation causes incalculable risks for the GOP.  Trump might score points arguing that the charges and timing are politically inspired, but they must also hurt.

Right now, it is impossible to gauge the electoral effect of the indictments and trials, but they will certainly influence the elections.  That Trump fears their effect is shown by his efforts to sidetrack them.  The political impact of the proceedings may be as important as the possibility of his being convicted.

One sign that the Republicans are faltering in the Trump trial era is their inability to match the Democrats’ fund-raising efforts. Not only has Trump diverted some funds to his legal defense, but party coffers are relatively short of cash.

This shows up in U.S. Senate campaigns. In Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the Republicans have recruited candidates mostly distinguished by their ability to finance their own campaigns.  Their inexperience may prove politically costly as they run against veteran Democratic incumbents. Their cash is supposed to prove the critical difference.

Trump lauds himself for having appointed Supreme Court justices who buried the court-established federal right to abortion.  While activists ardently support this decision, a popular majority has far less restrictive views, putting the GOP on the defensive.  Even Trump has backpedaled far enough to anger Mike Pence, his formerly faithful vice president.

The abortion issue, central to Republican policy, is a gift that keeps on giving for the Democrats. It could turn the tide of congressional elections, just as it did in 2022.

Perhaps the most powerful Trump-GOP issue has been immigration.  Here, President Biden has been extremely vulnerable.  Facing a backlash even from Democratic states, he accepted GOP positions in order to get a bill enacted. This provided the unusual prospect of a bipartisan immigration bill, meeting key GOP demands, that could have passed.

This Republican victory might have been a big plus in November.  But Trump wanted to deny Biden any credit, even for swallowing his loss, and led the House GOP to torpedo the bill. By this action, he gave Biden a boost, enabling him to argue that the GOP put Trump’s interests above a needed national policy.  They turned victory into defeat.

If these concerns weren’t enough, tack on the embarrassing inability of the House GOP to use its slim majority effectively.  Instead, the extreme right dominates to block compromise. Stunningly, they ousted their own speaker and have rebelled against his successor who promoted a key agreement in cooperation with Democrats.

In many cases, the Republicans are their own worst enemies.  But none of their problems guarantees Democrats’ success.  These issues suggest that polling forecasts are premature, because they ignore these underlying GOP problems for the final stages of the campaign.   They suggest that we really know little about November’s likely results. 

Perhaps the GOP’s problems will matter less than, say, Biden’s age, but that’s a big gamble.  Momentum matters, and the GOP campaign may be at a point where it would suffer without a positive push.