‘Figures don’t lie’ except when they do

Political polls far from ‘scientific’ 

Gordon L. Weil

“Lies, damned lies and statistics.”  

That old saying about the levels of lying both reveals and warns about the excessive use and misuse of numbers.

People love numbers.  Rankings and ratings are the basis of decisions that may determine matters ranging from which country is a world power to what toaster browns bread best to where a student should go to college.

These decisions matter, but they may be based on flimsy data.  Because we place much confidence in numbers, they become the tools or weapons of those seeking to impress or convince us.   Every day, we are flooded with facts and factoids by supposed experts who keep pumping out statistics.

The reason why numbers seem to be the gateway to the truth is that science relies heavily on numerical data.  A scientific law can be verified all the time by data and observation.  People who disagree on almost everything can accept scientific proof of a law of nature.

Sir Isaac Newton discovered the law of gravity, and its existence can be endlessly proved by observation and measurement.  It was not merely his opinion, wrapped in numbers.

Science distinguishes laws from theory.  Theory can be tested against alternative explanations.  Many numbers today would give us the same impression of certainty that we get from a scientific law.  In fact, they are so far from the real truth that they wouldn’t even qualify as theory. 

Take the Summer Olympics, soon to occur in Paris, which will produce numbers that are widely accepted as the truth.  Athletes will be proclaimed as winners, the best in the world.  Countries will engage in a race for the most medals, which somehow will indicate their superior standing among the nations of the world. 

Russia seeks to pile up medals in the belief that winning more medals is an indicator of its superiority.   So, it cheats by doping its athletes.   The late, unlamented East Germany used extensive doping to boost its international reputation.

Some events, like gymnastics and artistic swimming, are judged not scored, but awarded numerical rankings.  Judges rate break dancing, a newly added athletic event.  Baseball, which produces a score, has long been excluded. 

Athletic judges may make personal judgments, yet they contribute to the same medal count as timed races.  In fact, most ratings and rankings are based at least in part on the opinions and values of the raters and judges and not on standards required by good science. 

Among the most popular numbers are the college rankings that help young students decide where to pursue their education.  The numbers are unreliable.  The components may change, undermining long-term comparisons.    Information provided by colleges to raters may be falsified, fudged or incomplete.  Yet the rankings are revered.

When they hand out the Academy Award Oscars, do they truly go to the best picture or best performer?  The current ranked choice voting could produce a distorted result reflecting popularity and prejudice more than quality.  Some big mistakes have been made in the past. The best picture could be everybody’s second choice.

When it comes to ratings, from military power to movies, always beware of the word “best.”

Probably the subject where we most willingly follow questionable numbers too closely is public opinion polling about elections.  Numbers are published with so-called “margins of errors” that give the data the appearance of science.  Yet we know little or nothing about who participated or whether questions were fair.  What was the bias of the pollster?

And a survey is only a snapshot; the world can change.  Six months ago, few responses would have been influenced by events in the Middle East, but the Israel-Gaza situation is now a major issue.  How and how much will it influence voter preferences about six months from now?  And many other key issues may look different by then.

The message that emerges from our excessive reliance on numbers of dubious validity is that they should not be taken at face value. None of the daily flood of data that drowns us is truly scientific, no matter any claim.  Still, it may be as good as we can get it.

Perhaps the most useful information we derive from rankings and ratings is whether they change over time and, if so, by how much. Biden’s or Trump’s ratings moving by a point or two over a few days are probably meaningless.  If a trend continues long enough, a voter may begin to understand who is gaining or losing.

If we are not skeptical of statistics, we risk accepting politics as if it were nothing more than an athletic competition.  Poll numbers, like other statistics, are not perfect, and they are often overanalyzed.

The biggest risk is that another old saying may apply: “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure.” 

Election math favors Republicans

Democrats need big win

Gordon L. Weil

If the Democrats want to win the elections, they will have to win big.  The numbers are against them.

The Democrats depend on, well, democracy.  They expect to win when they get a majority of the votes.  Maybe not.  They could lose the presidency and Congress because of election math.

In four presidential elections involving the two major parties, the new president did not win a majority of the popular vote.  All of the winners in these elections – Hayes (1876), Harrison (1888), Bush (2000) and Trump (2016) were Republicans.

This outcome, which could well occur again in 2024, because an understanding among the Framers of the Constitution has gone awry.  At the time they wrote the document, their plan would have resulted in the president being chosen by electors representing a popular majority.

Before the first census, the Framers assigned seats in the House of Representatives based on population estimates.  The result was that a presidential candidate relying on the smaller states would need nine states of the 13 to collect enough electoral votes.  Perhaps not coincidentally, the Framers required ratification by at least nine states for the Constitution itself to take effect.

But the Framers also understood that a candidate relying on the larger states might need only six states to win the presidency.  Those states’ electors would represent 55 percent of the population compared with the 51 percent represented in the smaller states group.

In either case, when the Constitution was drafted, the Framers could expect that the president would be elected by states inhabited by a popular majority even if not chosen by a majority of the states.

History did not follow that rule.  Today, it is mathematically possible for 41 smaller states to elect the president, though they have only 46 percent of the population.  At the other extreme, the president could be elected by 12 states with 60 percent of the population.

Of course, states do not vote by population blocs but by party.  Many small, rural states are controlled by the Republicans, who also dominate former Confederate states like Texas and Florida.  The Republican candidate can win even without a popular majority, as Donald Trump did in 2016.

The proposed National Popular Vote Interstate Compact would restore the traditional expectation of a popular majority.  States with a majority of electoral votes would agree that all will assign their votes to the presidential candidate having won the majority of the national popular vote.  They would only be bound if all participating states kept this commitment.

Maine has just become the most recent state to accept the National Popular Vote.   By narrowing the gap to only 61 more electoral votes needed to join, the state’s move is significant. 

Inevitably, the Supreme Court will be asked to rule on the Compact and almost certainly its decision will be heavily influenced by politics.  In theory, though, the national popular vote could occur without a compact as the result of independent decisions of states with 270 electoral votes.

Maine has also been in presidential focus thanks to the way it picks electors.  The state, later followed by Nebraska, decided to assign electors to the statewide victor and the winner in each congressional district.  Other states use the statewide winner-take-all. The Second District in each state has occasionally departed from the state’s total result.

Seeking another possible electoral vote for Donald Trump, Nebraska is considering returning to pure statewide voting, eliminating the possibility of Biden carrying Omaha.  A Maine Democratic leader has warned the Cornhuskers that Maine could retaliate by taking away the chance it gives Trump to win a single vote. 

Just as the current method of picking the president favors one party, so does electing members of Congress.  State legislatures can design congressional district boundaries to divide voting groups to produce biased results.  Gerrymandering sometimes aims at limiting seats held by Blacks, but it often focuses on favoring one party.

Both parties gerrymander, but the GOP makes its moves in Texas and Florida – the second and third largest states.  The Supreme Court tries to block racial gerrymandering, but avoids most political redistricting disputes, except where they have a racial effect.  Much gerrymandering has already taken place, so the Court would have to unravel past actions.

Added to such creative House redistricting will be voter suppression, often intended to limit minority voting.  It’s based on unproven Republican assertions of possible fraud in federal elections (but not in their own state races).   It undermines efforts to increase participation.

Popular control of elections won’t improve for this year’s elections.  The Democrats would have to focus attention on voting issues as a way to turn out their supporters.  Faced with election reality, capturing seats from the White House to Capitol Hill will require the Democrats winning by big margins and carrying swing states.

Polls miss major issues, GOP’s big problems

 

Gordon L. Weil

As we come to the final six months of the political campaigns, the polls predict close races. But a number of key questions remain and raise doubts.

Will there be one or more Trump trial verdicts and will he be acquitted or convicted?

Who will Trump pick as his running mate?

Will either Biden or Trump say or do something so outrageous or incompetent as to compromise their candidacy?

Will the health of Biden and Trump hold up under the pressures of the campaign?

Will Supreme Court decisions on abortion laws, student loan forgiveness or other issues influence voters?

Will the Republicans be able to keep up with Democratic fundraising?

Will the GOP successfully suppress voting?

Will swing voters – women, young people, traditional Republicans, Blacks – switch sides or stay home?

Add to the ultimate answers to these questions, the political reality that the Republicans now bear more of a disadvantage than might be expected. As campaigns grow more intense, these critical concerns may affect the GOP’s chances for success.

The first concern is Donald Trump, the once and hopeful president.  The election seems to be about him more than any issue or event.  His unusually faithful support comes from millions who admire his unfettered and outspoken style.  He makes his simple solutions to complex issues easy to grasp, a real advantage in a complicated world.

But just how far his faithful support can carry him remains to be seen.  While his presidency and candidacy have brought him a loyal core, they have also inspired an increasingly organized opposition.  Donald Trump is the biggest unifying force the Democrats have enjoyed in many years.

Trump’s courtroom tests add to his controversial candidacy.  Never before has the leader of a national ticket been embroiled in criminal proceedings during his campaign. This situation causes incalculable risks for the GOP.  Trump might score points arguing that the charges and timing are politically inspired, but they must also hurt.

Right now, it is impossible to gauge the electoral effect of the indictments and trials, but they will certainly influence the elections.  That Trump fears their effect is shown by his efforts to sidetrack them.  The political impact of the proceedings may be as important as the possibility of his being convicted.

One sign that the Republicans are faltering in the Trump trial era is their inability to match the Democrats’ fund-raising efforts. Not only has Trump diverted some funds to his legal defense, but party coffers are relatively short of cash.

This shows up in U.S. Senate campaigns. In Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the Republicans have recruited candidates mostly distinguished by their ability to finance their own campaigns.  Their inexperience may prove politically costly as they run against veteran Democratic incumbents. Their cash is supposed to prove the critical difference.

Trump lauds himself for having appointed Supreme Court justices who buried the court-established federal right to abortion.  While activists ardently support this decision, a popular majority has far less restrictive views, putting the GOP on the defensive.  Even Trump has backpedaled far enough to anger Mike Pence, his formerly faithful vice president.

The abortion issue, central to Republican policy, is a gift that keeps on giving for the Democrats. It could turn the tide of congressional elections, just as it did in 2022.

Perhaps the most powerful Trump-GOP issue has been immigration.  Here, President Biden has been extremely vulnerable.  Facing a backlash even from Democratic states, he accepted GOP positions in order to get a bill enacted. This provided the unusual prospect of a bipartisan immigration bill, meeting key GOP demands, that could have passed.

This Republican victory might have been a big plus in November.  But Trump wanted to deny Biden any credit, even for swallowing his loss, and led the House GOP to torpedo the bill. By this action, he gave Biden a boost, enabling him to argue that the GOP put Trump’s interests above a needed national policy.  They turned victory into defeat.

If these concerns weren’t enough, tack on the embarrassing inability of the House GOP to use its slim majority effectively.  Instead, the extreme right dominates to block compromise. Stunningly, they ousted their own speaker and have rebelled against his successor who promoted a key agreement in cooperation with Democrats.

In many cases, the Republicans are their own worst enemies.  But none of their problems guarantees Democrats’ success.  These issues suggest that polling forecasts are premature, because they ignore these underlying GOP problems for the final stages of the campaign.   They suggest that we really know little about November’s likely results. 

Perhaps the GOP’s problems will matter less than, say, Biden’s age, but that’s a big gamble.  Momentum matters, and the GOP campaign may be at a point where it would suffer without a positive push.

Politicians are far older than their voters

Old senator wants younger judge to retire

Gordon L. Weil

A marvel of modern politics occurs when a U.S. senator, age 78, urges a U.S. Supreme Court justice, age 69, to step down because she is too old.

The senator’s worry is that, like Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the jurist will stay on the bench too long, die in office, and allow a Republican president to name her successor. He is concerned that she has diabetes, ignoring that when he voted to confirm her, she had the same life-long illness.

Sen. Richard Blumenthal, who would like the resignation of Justice Sonia Sotomayor, will be 82 when his current term expires. Coming from Connecticut, he would almost certainly be replaced by another Democrat when either he or his term expires.

The senator, more than the justice, illustrates a major problem with American politics today. Our leaders are too old.

Donald Trump and the media regularly point out President Joe Biden’s advanced age.  At 81, he is the oldest U.S. president.  Trump comes in second.

Obviously, there is a chance that an older president will die in office. Why put the country to such a test?  And if there is a real concern, that makes the choice between their running mates as important as the top of the ticket.  That could play out this year, though each candidate seems to think himself quite durable.

But equally important is whether an older person is able to sense and understand the values, concerns and interests of much younger people.  Simply put, our leaders may be out of touch with a lot of the population, including with its language and culture.

This lack of awareness of the sentiments of middle-aged and younger voters has been brought home by the Israel-Gaza conflict.  Support for Israel has long been a part of the fabric of American politics.  In today’s war, it manifests itself in the outpouring of military aid for Israel and frequent support for it at the U.N.

But many younger Democrats are openly dissatisfied with Biden’s support for Israel.  They want to see the U.S. withhold arms supplies until Israel agrees to a ceasefire.  Biden won’t go that far, possibly reasoning that those voters will remain faithful when it comes down to a choice between him and Trump.  In a close race, however, he may lose their needed enthusiasm.

In this context, it is worth watching Vice President Kamala Harris closely.  She may be trying to shore up the Democrats’ progressive wing and also to prepare for her own political future by sending more sympathetic signals to liberals.

The problem of age does not stop with the presidency.  In general, Congress is also out of line with the population it represents.  That is especially true for the U.S. Senate.

Blumenthal now ranks eighth in age among the 100 senators.  Maine’s Angus King, 80, ranks sixth. If reelected this year, he has a good chance of finishing his term in 2031 as the oldest senator. Though independent, he aligns with the Democrats.

The Connecticut senator worries that a departing Sotomayor could be replaced by a Republican president, if Biden loses.  When a Senate vacancy occurs, the home-state governor appoints a replacement.  Gov. Joe Brennan appointed George Mitchell to the Senate.  In his next term King could serve alongside as many as three different governors.  Might one of them be a Republican?

About one-third of the senators, including Maine’s Susan Collins and King, are over 70.  Only slightly more than 11 percent of the total population is past 70.  For this to reflect a representative democracy, one must believe that older is wiser. 

The House of Representatives average age is lower than the Senate’s.  Maine’s Rep. Jared Golden is the 41^st youngest representative out of a House of 435 members.  But about 19 percent of House members are over 70.

The solution to the age question won’t be left to officeholders who voluntarily decide to depart because they believe they are too old.  Retirement is up to the voters, and age should be a factor among others in determining whether candidates merit holding public office. Clearly, the judgment should recognize that not everybody ages at the same rate.

U.S. Supreme Court openings have not usually influenced voters’ choices of president or senators who must confirm judicial appointments.  Trump promised to appoint justices to overturn Roe v. Wade, and, with a GOP Senate, he did.  In 2016, younger women did not mobilize against him to the degree they actively back abortion rights Democrats today.

This year, more than 50 senators and representatives are not seeking reelection.  Some have quit early, and departing incumbents say they are fed up with the partisan political atmosphere in which they can accomplish little.  The vacancies created this year could offer the opportunity for younger leadership.

 

Trump’s N.Y. criminal trial: Remembering Al Capone

 

Gordon L. Weil

If you recall the movie “The Untouchables,” you may remember that gangster Al Capone, called “America’s Public Enemy No. 1,” was ultimately tried and convicted for income tax evasion.  He was not tried for the far more dramatic gangland killings for which he was widely thought responsible.

Donald Trump now becomes the first American president on trial for alleged crimes. The 34 charges by the New York County District Attorney are not for tampering with the 2000 vote count or causing the attack on the Capitol.  They are simply for falsifying business records in connection with the 2016 election. 

The charges say Trump acted “with intent to defraud and commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof.”

He had made an arrangement with Michael Cohen, who was his lawyer, and the National Enquirer newspaper to “catch and kill” stories that could harm his candidacy for president.  Trump, the lawyer and the rumor-spreading tabloid cooperated on three matters.

The first involved a former doorman at Trump Tower, who claimed that the candidate had fathered a child out of wedlock.  The doorman wanted $30,000.  This was to be paid until the National Enquirer found the claim was false.  But Cohen asked its boss not to dismiss the demand until after the election, so it could be easily forgotten no matter the outcome.

The second involved Woman 1, former Playboy model Karen McDougal, who said that she had a sexual relationship with Trump while he was married.  She was paid $150,000 by the National Enquirer, which would never publish her article about the relationship but promised to give her some free publicity. 

The third involved Woman 2, adult actress Stormy Daniels. Just three days after the release of the “Hollywood Access” video that revealed Trump’s predatory attitude toward women, she contacted him threatening to disclose her affair with him.  He agreed for the National Enquirer to pay her $130,000 for exclusive rights to her story.

Trump hoped to delay the deal until after the election.  As voting day approached, Daniels made clear she was ready to go public.  Trump asked Cohen to make the payment and committed to reimbursing his lawyer.

Cohen drew on his home equity line of credit and placed the funds in a new company he had created for the purpose of the deal.  He then transferred $130,000 to Daniels’ lawyer.  She remained quiet during the campaign.

Trump personally and the Trump organization would repay Cohen.  He would get twice what he had paid to Daniels so as to cover the income taxes on what he received.  He would also get a $60,000 bonus.  The full $420,000 would go to Cohen in $35,000 monthly payments over the course of  2017.

The payments would go onto Trump’s books as amounts due under a retainer agreement with Cohen.  That way Cohen would treat them as taxable income and Trump could treat them as a tax-deductible business expense.  The only problem was that there was no such retainer agreement at any time.

Eventually, the federal government caught up with the arrangements, thanks to Daniels.  Cohen was convicted of tax and campaign law felonies relating to Woman 1 and Woman 2.  Cohen served a prison term for his actions. The National Enquirer openly admitted the scheme and its role in it.  It was not charged.  The evidence from both contributed to Trump’s criminal indictment.

The indictment lists the 34 records that are alleged to be untrue and used to disguise attempts to prevent disclosures unfavorable to Trump and to enable him to deduct the Cohen payments from his taxable income.  The records are in the hands of the prosecution.  Both New York State and New York City have income taxes.

This case is entirely different from the civil case, now on appeal, in which Trump was held responsible for making false statements to banks and others about his assets, a violation of New York law no matter the presence or absence of direct harm to others.

It may prove difficult for Trump to win on the facts, which are decided by a jury.  He may argue that what he did broke no law or that the law does not apply to him for any one of a number of reasons.  He is likely to claim the charges were purely political in intent and should not be allowed to disrupt his political campaign.

The judge will decide on these claims and, in effect, already has.  Trump will certainly appeal an adverse decision through the New York judicial system. This may take time, which could work to his advantage.  He might assert that, because all appeals had not been exhausted, he has not yet been found guilty.

In the end, a major potential campaign violation and tax scheme has boiled down to the seemingly routine matter of falsifying business records. What voters make of these proceedings is not a judicial matter and won’t be decided in court.

 

Why Trump Gains Support

 His bonanza reveal a secret to his success

Gordon L. Weil


Donald Trump is a lucky person.

His social media website goes public, and he gains a bonanza worth billions

He is indicted for crimes and with each new charge, he seems to become more popular.

He holds a campaign fundraiser and rakes in tens of millions of dollars from billionaires, even though some of that money is likely to be siphoned off to pay his legal expenses.

He is generally thought to be leading President Joe Biden in his effort to regain the White House.

His popularity is often explained as showing that his core supporters have formed a cult and, like any cultists, they blindly support their leader.

But the recent explosion in the value of his social media company has prompted a closer look at why he has progressed so far.

The company has suffered a one-year loss of $58 million on total revenues of $4.1million (not billion). The company might be worth about $41 million in a normal market. With Trump’s involvement, its market value is about $5 billion.

One explanation is that the more investments get away from real value the more valuable they become. Many are “derivatives” – investments that are essentially bets on other investments or simply on other bets. They are a form of gambling. That may explain the meteoric rise of Bitcoin, a crypto-currency that is more crypto than currency.

But that would not explain why some of the wealthiest people still line up to back Trump. One suggestion is that their support and that of other potential Trump voters is a matter of what is called “motivated reasoning.”

This theory says that people allow their biases to affect how they see new information. They favor news that lines up with their beliefs and reject evidence that disagrees. Fact checking simply doesn’t matter. This analysis has been around for a long time, and it could boost Trump’s success. And some progressives also think this way.

It happens in a casino when a person wins a bet and then keeps on making losing but hopeful bets. In this case, something inevitably happens, and this is not a theory. It’s called “gambler’s ruin.” When you bet long enough against the house with its endless resources, you lose.

The focus must not be what Trump’ social media investment will turn out to really be worth or if his trials, win or lose, are political and should be ignored, but when the gamble fails. And the question is not only if Trump is the gambler, but if the U.S. would also be if he’s president.

Biden gets little support from backers engaged in motivated reasoning. Trump’s advantage may be a key element in his lead over the president, leaving Biden to argue that his record should gain him the political credit he needs to win.

The biggest issue may be the economy, because many voters appear to believe they are suffering from difficult times as their incomes increase more slowly than their expenses. Biden cannot convince them that the economy is in good shape and getting better.

That has to be frustrating because of motivated reasoning based on the belief the economy is in bad shape and is still wobbling. The effects of the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid pandemic have created beliefs that stand in the way of the facts. In reality, inflation is down, wages are rising faster than prices, unemployment is low and interest rates are at average levels.

Interest rates may not be interesting, but they are probably the key economic factor that can improve Biden’s chances. In fighting past crises, the Federal Reserve kept rates at close to zero. Then, the Fed raised them to block inflation resulting from a hot economy.

The central bank’s policies have worked. The effects on employment and wages have been positive, though prices had to increase but that growth has been cut in half. In effect, after about 16 years of crisis economics in which people were sent negative signals by the Treasury Department and the Fed, the economy looks like it is settling back to normal.

The Fed lower interest rates this year. It operates entirely independently of the rest of the government, but Trump has already suggested that any rate reductions will be intended to help Biden. While the president has nothing to do with Fed policy, Trump will be giving him credit for taking popular action.

The biggest issue may be continued uncertainty about the future. Will either Biden or Trump be able to provide the sense of stability missing since the financial crisis? Trump preaches fear that matters are growing worse, and he gains support. Biden struggles to break through the barrier of the public’s own worried expectations.

Traditional GOP could swing election

Gordon L. Weil

The political guesswork is that the presidential and congressional elections this year will be settled by narrow margins.

Speculation focuses on several swing groups that could play key roles in the races.

Will the abortion issue bring a large turnout of women to support the Democrats?

Will President Biden’s lingering support for Israel in the Gaza War turn off liberal Democrats who will stay home?

Are Black and Hispanic voters drifting toward the GOP, while union members are returning to the Democrats?

Would a Trump criminal conviction lead some of his core backers to stay home or energize them?

One possible swing group may have been overlooked. If loyal Republicans who had previously backed Donald Trump and his handpicked candidates choose to sit out the elections, they could have a major impact on the GOP’s chances.

Traditional Republicans must be added to the list of swing voters. Having taken over the GOP, Trump labels many lifelong party voters as RINOs – Republicans in Name Only. Many obviously resent being pushed aside by a person they may regard as a RINO,

Although she has not backed Trump in the past, Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins reflects the new wave of frustration of traditional, establishment party members when she says, “I don’t think it should surprise anyone that I will not support him.” She remains a loyal Republican.

Several other GOP leaders have said they will not support Trump or refuse to say what they might do. Would former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, former candidate Nikki Haley, Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, Utah Sen. Mitt Romney and Collins accept a Republican defeat to revive the Grand Old Party?

It’s difficult to gauge the strength of most swing groups, but the potential power of non-Trump Republicans can be more easily estimated. Voting in key state races in 2022 and 2024 plus this year’s GOP primaries provide some helpful numbers.

In 2020, Biden won close victories in five swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Four years earlier, Trump had carried all of them, also by narrow margins. Biden relied on those states to defeat Trump, though he faced his opponent’s unproven claims of election fraud.

In each of these states, both candidates improved on their party’s past presidential performance. If there are GOP defections from Trump this time for reasons ranging from the Capitol insurrection to his criminal cases, Biden might more easily hold onto all or most of these states. But he might face Democratic defectors in Georgia.

It would take three of these states moving from Biden to Trump for the former president to gain essential support. In 2022, four of them elected or reelected Democratic governors. If Trump really faces more defections by traditional Republicans, any losses in these states could prove costly to him.

Three of these swing states held GOP primaries before former South Carolina Gov. Haley withdrew. In Arizona, she received 110,000 votes. In Georgia, she gained 77,000 and in Michigan she tallied 296,000 votes. If some of these people had voted for Trump in 2020 but won’t back him now, their lack of support could boost Biden’s grip on those states.

At least one additional state could become much closer to helping Biden, if Trump-designated RINOs defect from him.

In North Carolina, Trump defeated Biden in 2020 by 74,000 votes. In this year’s GOP primary for governor, the Trump-favored candidate defeated two anti-Trump Republicans who together received 191,000 votes. A loss of some of these voters could give North Carolina, with as many electoral votes as Georgia, to Biden.

More improbable but still worth attention is Florida. Trump defeated Biden by 372,000 votes in 2020. In this year’s GOP presidential primary, Haley received 155,000 votes. If these were usual Republican voters who would not now stick with Trump, their absence could greatly narrow his lead. Florida was formerly a swing state and could head back in that direction.

Two other electoral votes could be affected by Trump defectors. Maine and Nebraska each choose some presidential electors by congressional district. In 2020, Biden won Nebraska’s second district and could hold onto it. Maine’s second district could flip from Trump to Biden if the former president dropped about 8,000 votes.

The presidential campaign will undoubtedly change in the coming months. Polling predictions likely will vary over time and could turn out to be flat wrong if people are lying to pollsters. Future events may yet influence voters or even turn them against voting at all.

Throughout the process, it will be worth paying attention to swing groups. Not only can a relatively small number of voters determine a close outcome, but collectively they could also produce a wide victory.

Among these swing groups, follow the RINOs. They may not be extinct.