Trump, the would-be autocrat, gets Supreme Court backing

 

Gordon L. Weil

What does Donald Trump want to do with the presidency?

He makes his intentions clear, though less clear is whether he can turn his plans into reality.  Kamala Harris describes him as “unserious,” but cautions that voters ought to consider as “serious” the risks of his presidency.

Trump favors a strong presidency, enjoying powers he can exercise with little or no control by Congress and with the expected support of his Supreme Court majority.  His next term, if he gets it, could look a lot like authoritarian government.

One indicator is his obvious affinity for leaders who bear the title of president, but who exercise strong or total control of their national governments.  He almost fraternally refers to Russia’s Putin, China’s Xi and North Korea’s Kim.  In fact, he likes their style and their complete freedom of action.

The presidential system of government places elected presidents, serving fixed terms, at the head of the executive branch alongside legislative bodies that cannot readily remove them, but can limit their powers.  In parliamentary systems, the legislative bodies control and can remove the top executive, usually the prime minister.  

In the U.S. system, the checks on a president are a key element of democracy.  The contrast between democratic balance and the authoritarian rule of false presidents is obvious. 

Independent ranking systems are surely not absolutely correct, but they offer strong signals that prove the point. Britain’s Economist Intelligence Unit ranks countries by their degree of democracy.  Among the counties ranked as being “full democracy,” almost all in this category have parliamentary systems.

The U.S. presidential system is rated in the “flawed democracy” group, which also includes India, Poland and Hungary.  America gets a high rating for “electoral process,” but a weak rating for “functioning of government.”  There’s also an “authoritarian” group, which includes Russia, China and North Korea, operating as one-party states.

Trump plans to use his governmental powers to pursue the political enemies he calls “vermin,” expel millions of migrants, and deploy the military to carry out his policies.  Sounds like an autocrat.

His extreme departure from national norms leads conservative Republicans, who may like his policies on the economy and immigration, to endorse Harris with whom they may disagree on the issues.  She is simply safer.

In the White House, Trump would be likely to do whatever pleases the right-wing constituency that put him in office.  Although he honestly reports that he has not read the 887-page Project 2025 blueprint, he is likely to follow its right-wing manifesto.  He has little of his own policy, but depends heavily on outside, conservative advocates.

Under its terms, the Justice Department and the FBI would be bought firmly under his control.  The Education Department would be abolished, and the Federal Reserve brought under  greater political control.  No agency would be missed.

Trump would be able to take control of the government.  Though the president is supposed to be constrained by Congress, it has failed to do its job.  It delegates much of its power to executive agencies.  The Senate is often unable to act, thanks to its rules allowing decisions to be blocked by a minority of senators.

The Supreme Court’s July decision, aptly named Trump v. United States, gave the president almost complete immunity from legal scrutiny for all but his most personal actions. And who gets to decide if his actions are presidential or personal?  The Supreme Court, now dominated by his allies.

This decision does more for placing the presidency above Congress and the states than any other event in American history.  It could easily mean that limits no longer exist on a president using the military for domestic, political purposes.

Congress, because it is ineffective except in doling out benefits and increasing the debt, and the Court, because it has become so obviously partisan, have become quite unpopular.  The unfavorable rating of Congress has reached 76 percent, and it is 51 percent for the Supreme Court. 

The remaining option for controlling presidential excess is impeachment and conviction.  But impeachment has become mere political routine, and conviction continues to be impossible and ineffective. 

Trump covets unlimited power, which no president of either party is meant to have.  The pathway to unchecked presidential power has been paved by the Supreme Court’s decision.  The evidence is that it intended to achieve this result before the election.  That leaves the decision to the voters.

The Court’s Roe v. Wade decision on abortion established policy in the absence of congressional action.   Trump v. U.S. did so as well.  As Roe shows, Court decisions can be reversed.  Congress can remove the Court’s jurisdiction, but seldom does.  Presidents can reshape the Court by their appointments.

A political movement pushed the reversal of Roe v. Wade.  A similar effort should now demand the reversal of Trump v. U.S.

 

 

When shootings happen, there are rules

Ten Rules for Assassinations/Shootings/Attempts

Gordon L. Weil

Assassinations and shootings are as big as it gets, but they do not bring out the best in us.

Politicians and media select from this menu or use it all in the aftermath of shootings.  This checklist may look like the event is being taken seriously, as it should, but nothing changes.  More bluster, more shootings.

1.  Charges are made that the security people failed to detect the shooter when they should have.

 2.  Motive for shooting unknown.

3.  Season opens for unlimited speculation and free-lance blame assignment.

4.  Shooter was alone, often promptly killed, making answer to 2. more difficult.

5.  Shooter had blog with threats or kept a diary, but was usually ignored as being “odd”.

6.  Matter under investigation, report to come after we forget/care about the incident.

7.  Law enforcement agencies are cooperating, but each gets equal press conference access.

8.  Some authority somewhere had been warned sometime about the shooter.

9.  Shooter obtained gun legally; calls made for tougher laws.

10. Nothing happens. Wait for next event - but not very long. Restart at 1. above.

  

Harris' biggest campaign event; Trump's 'best'?

 

Gordon L. Weil

The debate revealed a split between the presidential candidates going beyond their differences on the issues.

At several points, Kamala Harris directly addressed viewers, reaching beyond the limits of the ABC debate set.  Donald Trump, expected to be on offense but finding himself mostly on defense, never left the limits of the debate.

After the war of words, Trump told the media, “It was the best debate I’ve ever had.”  That may be a case of wishful thinking or an attempt at campaign spin. But that statement amounted to his giving himself a grade on his performance.  He was telling the voters that this was him at his best.

The presidential election is held in each state for its electoral votes.   Trump played to his core backers in the belief that he had locked up safe states and could raise doubts about Harris in the swing states.  Of course, Harris has her own safe states, but she was reaching for voters in both swing states and on Trump’s own turf.

It’s all about electoral math. Just below the surface of the presidential election lies a politically deadly force that could pick the winner despite the will of the people.

This forecast is not merely a possibility; it is a certainty.   When the votes are counted on and after November 5, the outmoded Electoral College will determine the winner, no matter the popular vote.

The practical effect of the Electoral College is that the Democratic candidate for president must win by much more than a slim majority in the national popular vote.  If Harris leads by one or two percent in the polls, that’s probably not enough.  She needs more than a national squeaker to be assured of enough support across enough states to prevail.

The reverse is true for the Republican candidate.  They may win less than a majority of the vote nationally, but still be elected.  This seems to be an iron law: every time since 1824 when there has been a minority winner, the victor was a Republican.  Trump can win with less than a popular majority, as he did in 2016.

While a narrow national margin either way may mean a Trump victory, Harris can win by carrying swing states, and she can win big by taking one or two safe Trump states.  If she trails in swing states, even while winning the national popular majority, Trump’s electoral vote could overrule her majority.

So, Harris had to accept the electoral math and tried to turn the debate to her national advantage.  For her, it was not so much a debate as a way to talk directly with swing voters all across the country.  For Trump, it was a matter of reinforcing his hold on his MAGA core and raising doubts about Harris with other Republicans and possibly with independents. 

She stuck to her case and often avoided answering some moderators’ questions.  She needled him. He boldly asserted untruths, knowing there was not enough time to refute them all.  He was so intent on his false claims, some of them wild, that he failed to successfully link her to President Biden.

Whatever the points the candidates thought they scored in the debate format, Harris sought to use it as her only national campaign stop.  In what was clearly the best answer given by either candidate, she forcefully laid out the case for reproductive freedom for women.  This was an attempt to reach voters in all states.  If successful, she could overcome the electoral math.

The effect of the Electoral College can only be defeated in one way – turnout.  Motivated voters showing up to vote can undermine the implicit assumptions about the way states will decide. 

When voter turnout is unexpectedly high, it can upset what polling forecasts.  A surge in support for a candidate might overturn the expected outcome, flipping the electoral math.  This might occur in both the swing states and in supposedly safe states.  Momentum can make swings happen anywhere.

The debate was Harris’s chance to recover her momentum and Trump’s chance to block it.  If she rekindled enthusiasm for her candidacy, the debate could have helped her in swing states, but also to reach into Trump’s supposedly safe states.  It seems less likely that Trump could have loosened her hold on her safe states.

If one party invades the other party’s safe states, then a voter anywhere can make a difference.  That’s possible this year, because Trump may have peaked, leaving Harris nowhere to go but up.

Growing enthusiasm helps boost momentum.  Watch the number of small contributions; they reflect that enthusiasm.  Also, the surge in voter registration may be a positive sign for either candidate.

Will there be another debate?  It could help either candidate, but in hugely different ways. 

 

Close election? Don't count on it

Gordon L. Weil

“It don’t mean a thing, if you ain’t got that swing.”  That’s the name of an old popular song.

It could be the theme song of this year’s presidential election.  And it may be the key to a big win for Kamela Harris, not the expected close election.  Instead of barely scraping by, as the pundits and polls now forecast, she could win by a convincingly large margin.

We are constantly reminded that in a few states, a few votes could determine the result.  Because the outcome could go either way, that makes them swing states, while the results in all others are considered to be locked in. 

But the election across the country may depend on the changing preferences of key groups of voters.  Swing voters could have an effect in many states beyond the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

Who are these groups?  Voters over 65, disaffected Republicans, Latinos, Asians and rural residents.  And the biggest group – women.

Beyond these groups are those whose leanings are known, and the question is if they will turn out to vote and have unimpeded access to the ballot box.   They are Blacks and young people.

As I’ve repeatedly noted, the so-called suburban women with a post-high school education have become a major voting force.  They outnumber the blue-collar men having no education beyond high school.

Not only do they outnumber the supposed Trump core, but they vote at a higher rate. They are reported to be better motivated in this election because of the abortion issue.  And they are becoming a separately identified and independent minded political force.

Older voters have traditionally been Republican supporters, but they have become almost evenly divided between the two presidential candidates.  They show up to vote at a higher rate than any other age group, so this shift could move active voters from one camp to another.  The same trend may be true for rural voters.

Clearly, Trump forces have taken control of the GOP from traditional economic conservatives.  While many Republicans will remain faithful to the ticket, others are now in play. Will they hold their noses and vote for Harris or will they stay home? 

Their leader is likely to be Liz Cheney, the former Wyoming GOP member of Congress. While she was soundly defeated in the party primary by a Trump backer, she retained a share of her state’s Republican voters.  Now that she has spoken out against Trump, millions of disaffected Republicans across the country might follow her lead.

Latino and Asian voters are not expected to depart from their usual voting patterns.  Much support will remain with Trump.  But to the extent that their support is loosened, possibly because they are uncomfortable with his style, they weaken his chances.  Given that he has likely hit his maximum level of support, he cannot afford such defections.

Black voters had been reported as lacking enthusiasm for President Biden leading to a reduced turnout and some even turning to Trump.  Their loss was a major problem for Biden.  But Harris, firmly recognized as a Black, despite Trump having tried to create doubt, can bring them back.

The constitutional amendment allowing voting at age 18 has been a disappointment as many young people have remained aloof from politics. But issues ranging from abortion to Gaza appear to be creating a wave of new registrations among the youth.  The Democrats think they stand to gain from first-time voters.

These swing voters may not only be a factor in the seven swing states, but are likely to appear to some extent in almost all states.  That may mean that states rated as solidly in the Republican camp could move closer to being in play.

Florida, once a toss-up state, has been thought to be a win for Trump.  Texas, seeming to be firmly under Republican domination, has been seen as a sure thing for him.  Neither now appears likely to disappoint him.  But the gap between Trump and Harris has narrowed to the point where both, with a total of 70 electoral votes, have lost their certainty for Trump.

The campaign is far from over.  Trump could win half of the swing states. He could try to slug it out in Pennsylvania, a state critically important for Harris.  And, of course, there could be major, unforeseen events that can radically change the election outlook.

But if the swing voters turn out to make a difference across the country with their shift not limited to the swing states, Harris could gain a major victory.  Her momentum matters.

Not only would such a win give her a clear mandate, but it would undermine any disruptive Trump “Stop the Steal” effort and promote an orderly transition.

Close election?  Don’t count on it. 

This group could decide the election

 

Gordon L. Weil

A dozen people will meet behind closed doors next month and make a decision that will heavily influence the presidential election and might even decide it.

They are not politicians. They are a group of almost anonymous economists and bankers who will set the interest rate affecting everything from mortgages and housing to credit cards and pensions. 

Its decision will have an immediate and nationwide impact. That’s more real change than most economic policy actions by the president.  And it could also determine the election.

The group bears a technical sounding name: the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC.  But its effect is hardly technical.  It is coldly practical, and its decision will cascade through the economy the minute it is announced at two o’clock on the afternoon of September 18.  This will come at the end of the only FOMC meeting scheduled before the elections.

The FOMC is poised to lower interest rates.  That’s a big deal and is expected to be politically popular.  Coming while a Democratic president holds office, the lower rates could boost the Democrats’ election chances.  Yet the decision will be a judgment based on economic factors, information available to the public, and not on politics.

The FOMC supports the Federal Reserve, which has two major tasks – keeping employment high and inflation low.  It’s a balancing act, because promoting one goal can produce negative results for the other.

Many people have faced a higher cost of living and assign blame to high interest rates.  Whatever the underlying factors, a majority holds President Biden responsible, with inflation being a key contributor to his unpopularity.  Lower rates and resulting lower prices could boost the chances of Kamala Harris.

Donald Trump has been an advocate of lower interest rates, a position that has political appeal.  He has come to dislike the rate policy of Jerome Powell, the person he had appointed as the Fed chief.  Recently, Trump has favored waiting to lower rates to deny political help to the Democrats. 

Trump backers have suggested that presidents ought to take part in setting interest rates.  If the president played such a role, it would be like their having a say in Supreme Court decisions.  Now, the president’s role with both the Supreme Court and the Federal Reserve Board consists of appointing their members. 

Presidents are supposed to keep away from these economic decisions.  Otherwise, short-term politics can seriously harm the national economy.  Leading central banks around the world, like the Fed, are kept independent of political leaders by law. 

The Federal Reserve has traditionally kept its distance from presidential politics, especially following a major crisis about 50 years ago when Fed policy got too close to a campaign. Since then, they have been a carefully reserved Reserve.

The FOMC is composed of twelve members:  the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Fed, appointed by the president for 14-year terms, plus five representatives of regional Federal Reserve banks.  The FOMC votes are made public, and, unlike the Supreme Court, there is remarkable agreement among the members, no matter their political affiliation.

Following the Great Recession of 2008 and the Covid crisis beginning in 2020, employment fell, eventually leading the FOMC to stimulate the economy by setting interest rates at zero.  Then, as the economy improved, it raised rates to block inflation by slowing business investment. 

Its policy worked.  First, unemployment was sharply cut.  Then, the FOMC raised rates back to traditional levels.  Price increases have slowed, but so has employment growth.  

Here’s where politics comes in.  People had grown accustomed to the low interest rates used to stimulate the economy.   When the FOMC increased rates, it intended to slow economic growth and reverse inflation.  But many people liked low rates, so grew unhappy with the FOMC interest policy.

The Fed has tried to bring about what is called a “soft landing.”  In dealing with both employment and inflation problems, it had to avoid pushing too hard either way, because it wanted to avoid a recession.  That’s a tough challenge, not always popular, and it seems to be working.  But the Fed has struggled to get the right timing for its moves.

If, by its decision in September, the FOMC lowers costs in the economy, almost everybody will take that as good news.  Their new optimism, probably accompanied by higher stock market values, could have a political effect.  With Trump now holding a slight lead on his ability to handle the economy, it could help Harris.

The cut won’t be huge, either a quarter or a half percent, but it will produce lower costs for people and businesses.  In this short campaign, that could be a big influence on how people vote.  Let’s see how the hot politics of a cold economic decision play out.

Harris, Trump promises depend on Congress

 

Gordon L. Weil

Promises, promises.

Presidential candidates make them.  Voters complain that they don’t keep them.

Promises reveal a candidate’s political views, but often they cannot be kept.  Keeping them most likely depends on the president’s party winning majorities in both the U.S. House and Senate. 

This year, the presidential election takes place alongside races for all 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats.  The results of those 438 other federal elections may reveal as much about national policy in the next couple of years as the outcome of the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Right now, the balance of power in both houses of Congress is close and is expected to remain tight.  Currently, the House has 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats with three vacancies.   In November’s election, 21 seats are rated as toss-ups, so House control is up for grabs.

A toss-up seat is usually one where the representative aligns with one party, while the voters support a presidential candidate of the other party.  Maine’s Second District, represented by Jared Golden, is one of the most Republican districts with a Democratic representative.

Golden is a classic case, like Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a Democrat who keeps the views of his district always ahead of pure partisanship.  Goldin has made clear why he is a Democrat, but keeps his distance from the Democratic Party, sometimes opposing it on issues supported by most of its House members.

While he has voted against the policies of President Biden more than any other House Democrat, he has not cast the decisive vote to kill a Biden policy. That’s partly because there are other Democrats who share his approach.  In 2021, he refused to back Nancy Pelosi for House Speaker and joined others voting for another Democrat.  Still, Pelosi was elected.

The presidential race could have a major influence on his re-election chances.  Trump expects to carry the district.  Either Golden must continue to convince voters that his loyalty to them is greater than his Democratic ties or Harris must succeed in reducing Trump’s strength in the district.

By not endorsing Harris, Golden has immunized himself from having to support or defend her positions as she announces them, keeping his focus on district interests. Still, as a Democrat, he is sure to get seats on House committees, less possible for a true independent.  His committee roles can be important for Maine.

Golden’s race could be critically important to the Democrats, because they have a realistic hope of winning control of the House.  Their chances in the Senate are far slimmer, so the House could be the barrier to the possibility of full Trump government control.

The Senate now includes 51 Democrats and allies and 49 Republicans. The Democrats have 22 seats up for election this year while the GOP has only 11.   Only two of these seats, both held by Democrats, are considered to be toss-ups.  If they hold those seats, the full Senate would end up split 50-50.  The Vice President breaks ties, so the presidential election outcome matters.

But tie-breaking might not be enough, because the minority party could deny the 60 votes required to end debate and could block most decisions.  The only limit is that the American people have no appetite for a government shutdown resulting from total disagreement, so a band-aid budget could be allowed to pass.

Presidents have gained more power in recent years, but they are not completely free to act.  The courts may restrain them, and the congressional power of the purse may limit how far they can go.  Without congressionally approved spending, they can be at least partially blocked.

After the Democratic National Convention, the campaigns enter into the home stretch of this unusually short race.  The September 10 presidential debate could be a turning point.  Trump might step up his efforts to undermine public confidence in Harris.  As the younger candidate with special appeal to women voters, she could try to push her momentum.

If Trump regained the polling lead, he could have a strong influence either way on the congressional races.  Voters might support Democratic candidates to ensure a balanced or divided government or they might vote Republican to give Trump the full support he needs to keep his promises.

In contrast, a growing Harris lead would mean she had strong momentum.  That could yield her a bigger win, possibly providing a margin that would make it more difficult for the almost inevitable election challenges that would follow a Trump loss.   

If her gains continue, her momentum could help Democrats in toss-up congressional races.  Beyond that, watch to see if any race where the GOP candidate is currently rated as a sure winner becomes a toss-up, which could be a bellwether of a possible Harris victory.

 

Harris’ policies versus Trump’s

 

Gordon L. Weil

During the Democratic National Convention, news analysts repeatedly say that Kamala Harris had better hurry up and define her policies before Trump does it for her, putting her on the defensive.

They start from a false premise.  She has stated these major policy positions:

Reproductive choice (formerly known as abortion rights).  She is outspoken on this key issue and wants a federal guarantee of this right.  By contrast, Trump varies between banning it nationally and state action.

Economy.  She has proposed traditional Democratic pump-priming measures to stimulate housing and jobs.   She wants anti-gouging laws as some states, like Texas, already have. She favors an independent Federal Reserve.  By contrast, Trump favors wealth accumulation, which should be an incentive to striving workers. This is even less than trickle-down.  He would end Fed independence.

Immigration.  She supports bi-partisan legislation, which Trump instructed the GOP to block, so he could later get the credit for it.  She also supports Biden’s immigration controls which are working with Mexican help. Trump wants to deport millions of long-term residents, that would undermine the economy.  Plus, the wall.

Labor unions.  She supports them and their greater role.  Trump would fire people who seek to organize.

Israel-Palestine.  She supports immediate cease-fire, but cannot depart from Biden policy on arms sales.  The country can have only one foreign policy at a time.  Trump supports Netanyahu, so could not broker peace.  This is a loose end for Harris, but you cannot negotiate independently from Biden or by showing your hand publicly.

In a short campaign, the candidates can focus on a few of the most major issues.  They have done so and have contrasting positions.  The pundits should back off. 

Finally, Trump sees America as failing; Harris sees it rising.  It’s the “vision thing.”