If Democrats are communists, so is Trump

 

If Democrats are communists, so is Trump

Reckless charges keep flying

 

Gordon L. Weil

The Democrats are communists.  Donald Trump is a communist.

The Democrats push national health insurance, a key element of European socialism.  Communists claim to be socialists and are the dedicated opponents of the American political and economic systems.  MAGA Republicans say that pro-government Democrats undermine the U.S. and are communists.

Donald Trump cultivates one-person rule à la Joseph Stalin, the late leader of the Communist Party’s Soviet Union, America’s enemy.   An authoritarian regime, it always won sham elections and ruthlessly suppressed any opposition.  It hijacked socialism, using it as a myth to cloak outright dictatorship by one person.

Like Stalin, Trump sanctions the killing and persecution of people who oppose his policies and gladly tries to ignore due process.  He seeks to skew elections so that his party never loses.  If he deploys a presidency like Stalin’s regime, does that mean Trump can be called a communist?

Nobody calls Trump a communist, because communism is understood as a left-wing political theory that favors a powerful government, while Trump is a conservative who opposes big government. 

In practice, the Soviet Union was a right-wing dictatorship, as Vladimir Putin, Stalin’s latest successor as Russia’s leader, now reveals.  Stripping away the mythology, Soviet Communism was as conservative and authoritarian as most dictatorships.   The false ideology aside, the difference between Stalin’s rule and Trump’s is a matter of degree, not intent.

Trump freely asserts that Democrats are communists.  This is remarkably unfair, like calling Trump a Nazi.  He aims to link his political opponents, for whom he shows no respect, with an international conspiracy that has threatened the U.S.  Some of his followers take him seriously.   

Trump distorts the political label used by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders – Democratic Socialist.  Sanders’s allies have begun to win elections, notably Zohran Mamdani’s successful run for New York City mayor.   Trump broad brushes all Democrats as Democratic Socialists and Democratic Socialists as communists, the enemy.

America’s Democratic Socialists aren’t communists.   They are in the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, roughly equivalent to right-wing MAGA Republicans.  Neither is the branch of foreign enemy.  Each probably believes itself to be loyally American, while charging the other side is not.

It’s often said that the U.S. is divided.  Division is caused by divisiveness, sometimes becoming “weaponization.”  The opposition is described in harshly negative terms to turn opinion against it.  The nature of politics is mostly about getting voters to reject the opposition because of its faults, true or false, rather than convincing them to support your side.

Pundits point out that American politics has always involved mudslinging, so today’s divisiveness should not be taken as unusual.  This “two-wrongs-make-a-right” justification winks at actions that might otherwise be rejected if they stood alone.   Besides, it’s historically wrong.

The Civil War was the most divisive time in U.S. history.  Neither President Abraham Lincoln nor rebel leader Jefferson Davis regularly used the same kind of attacks on one another as President Trump applies to Democrats and their leaders.  Lincoln wanted to preserve the possibility of reconciliation, but Trump seeks domination.

Trump calls Democrats “godless communists” and labelled Kamala Harris, his competitor for the presidency, as “Comrade Kamala,” pushing the supposed communist linkage

He insults people with whom he should work, calling them “Dumocrats.”  Former President Biden is “Crooked Joe.”  Democrats may call Trump derogatory names as well, but he alone is President of the United States, the chief of state, responsible for and responsive to all Americans.

Trump’s exalted view of himself, accepted by his GOP, gives him a free hand in running the government and using his presidency for personal enrichment.   That self-esteem leads him to expect submission and to allow the government’s use of force.

People want to enjoy freedom from fear.  The American system has gradually given people a greater sense of security, with the government’s use of force becoming less likely.  Members of previously endangered minorities have been able to gain more equality and enhanced roles.  Trump now retracts their progress as having been a mistaken gift of the historical majority.

Under Trump, fear has been increasing and seems to be a tool to gain his goals.  The killing of two innocent white demonstrators in Minneapolis increased national uneasiness, as have his undisciplined and harmful references to Africans, Muslims, and women.

Governments holds the most physical power and can instill fear to induce acceptance of their demands.  When an arbitrary regime strips people of due process of law, its threat becomes menace, and menace produces obedience.

Both Trump now and Stalin decades ago have used the enormous power of government to force compliance with their individual will.   Trump is not a communist, but neither was Stalin.  Both qualify as authoritarians, flaunting their power and promoting their greater glory, no matter what the cost.

NEW: Amerexit: Trump’s version of failed Brexit COMPLETE POST

Amerexit: Trump’s version of failed Brexit

You can’t go home again

 

Gordon L. Weil

Ten years ago, the British decided to leave the EU.  It was a bold but flawed move, and recovery will take many years, if ever.

The seeds that yielded Brexit have been planted on this side of the pond.  The U.S. version might be labelled Amerexit.  Britain left Europe; the U.S. is leaving the world. 

Brexit was driven by three forces – sovereignty, identity and history.   The U.S. is now being driven by the same forces.

In the British referendum, the majority opposed compromises with British sovereignty required by the EU’s rules and courts.  Reverence for the monarchy, though outmoded compared with other countries, promoted a sense of special status for its laws and customs.  England dominated the result, while Scotland and Northern Ireland rejected British exceptionalism.

The vast and unrestricted, EU single market gave British production access to a huge market, a real benefit to small businesses.  But a single market must have a single set of rules, and that took exclusive control away from Parliament and the U.K. courts.  That change was a price too high to pay, even if markets were lost.

Throughout its history, the U.S. has been reluctant to enter into international agreements that could limit its sovereignty.  It might accept accords only when they served American interests, and the U.S. could dominate.

NATO provided the U.S. a buffer against Soviet expansion and a guarantee that European nations would no longer drag it into war.  The organization, always led by the U.S., successfully served both purposes.  But its success led President Trump to mistakenly see it simply as a European plan for free-riding on American military protection.

Similarly, the U.N., created by an American initiative, aimed at reducing the chances of war, and maintained U.S. global influence.   It ended or contained some conflicts and provided humanitarian aid in line with U.S. priorities.

Trump’s policy is “America First,” and he seeks to quit international agreements.  Other countries see the policy as “America Alone,” a return to isolationism.  But Trump sees it as “America Only,” where others are expected to fall in line with unilateral U.S. policy, imposed by a superpower.  That explains his disappointment that NATO did not back his Iran war.

The EU requires the free movement of labor among its member countries, just as within the U.S.   But the Brexiteers worried about immigrants from Poland and elsewhere in Eastern Europe, who could undermine the essence of British identity.

U.S. opposition to immigration reflects a similar concern about new Americans changing the nation’s ethnic mix.  American identity has become more narrowly defined, while the flow of immigrants, legal or not, has slowed.

To maintain the U.S. as a white, Christian country, as he sees its historic origin, he prefers immigrants from Norway or the white population of South Africa over Muslims and people of color. 

The third focus might easily have been dominant, overriding any potential costs from Britain’s leaving Europe.  Great Britain was once among the world’s great powers.  Its empire extended around the globe.  It is a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council.  In a nation whose military has more royal parade horses than battle tanks, the trappings of empire still matter.

The EU thwarted recognition of British history.  As an historical great power, Britain might emerge again to rise above being a mere member of Europe’s club.  Its worldwide recognition could bring it trade deals that would surpass the gains from being an EU member. For Brexiteers, “Leave” meant gaining rightful independence, while “Remain” made that impossible

Britain simply could not get over its history and adhered to an exalted view of itself not shared by other.  To the leavers, the EU was a trade deal that came at too high a cost for a great country.

Trump’s Make American Great Again is much the same.  In his view, glorious days in America’s past must be recovered.  The country was “Great” and it should be great “Again.”  To achieve this goal, the tariff policy of President McKinley should be revived as should the territorial policy of President Polk.   Its view of itself is decreasingly shared by others.

Brexit is failing.  Trade did not grow.  Small businesses closed.  Prosperity did not occur. Immigrants from outside Europe entered to staff essential services, especially healthcare.  The military became almost irrelevant.  If Brexit is not yet a catastrophe, it is a serious handicap.

Amerexit is also beginning to fail.  Tariffs do not improve the trade balance.  The U.S. loses the support of traditional European allies, who are realizing the changing nature of war and the Russian threat.  The limitations of American power have become clear.  Domestically, government policies make personal lives more costly.

Brexit and Amerexit fail for the same reason – their failure to recognize and adjust to change. You can’t go home again.

  

Amerexit: Trump’s version of failed Brexit

 Amerexit: Trump’s version of failed Brexit

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Democrats need common platform to oppose GOP

Democrats need common platform to oppose GOP

Core message should unify party

 

Gordon L. Weil

The Democrats like to fight.

But they are getting it wrong.  Instead of fighting against Trump and his MAGA Republicans, they fight with one another. 

Progressives and moderates each argue that their party must adopt their message as its platform.  Each group claims to know what will give Democrats control of Congress, while charging the other side is doomed to lose.

Will Rogers, the prairie humorist, famously proclaimed, “I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat.”  For many, the thought still rings true.  The party struggles to organize a winning campaign.

The master of forming winning coalitions was President Franklin D. Roosevelt.  He had to unify northern Blacks and blatantly racist southerners behind a common program.   He stressed issues that they shared, while making some concessions to each side.   The result was his 1936 reelection, when he carried all but two states.

Progressives want a more activist federal government, social reform, and political change.  Moderates want to focus on bread-and-butter issues, to avoid social issues, and political restoration. Each side’s commitment to its own beliefs gets in the way of their finding a platform built from issues that both believe are important.

Obviously, the Democrats’ best hope of winning is as the alternative to an unpopular President Trump.  While merely opposing Trump may not be enough to yield a congressional majority, it is their campaign’s basis.  Beyond defeating Trump, his practices and policies, the Democrats lack a unified program based on shared views and concerns.

The party might rally around a platform recognizing the needs and hopes of most Americans and refraining from ideas, however worthy to either wing of the party, that fail to recognize the practical and current concerns of voters.  The Democrats should build on the opportunity Trump has given them and should avoid either looking too far back or too far ahead.

Here’s what a core Democratic platform could include.

Tariffs are a traditional source of revenue and protector of emerging economic sectors, but they have become the president’s political plaything, raising raises costs for consumers.  His policy cuts trade deficits by limiting imports rather than boosting exports.  Democratic policy should stress American strengths and no longer enhance its vulnerability.

The Abraham Accords were meant to foster peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors through cooperation rather than confrontation.  Why not extend that thinking to Iran?  A closer economic relationship could do more to defuse Iran’s threat than futile acts of war.  

Ukraine, Taiwan and Palestine policy should emphasize the traditional American opposition to territorial takeovers, reversing the Canada and Greenland blather.  The U.S. freed the Philippines and other countries and has fought against the territorial expansion of aggressors.  It should oppose attempts to subjugate others. 

Science does not have all the answers, but it has brought much longer lives and much less disease.  Abandoning research harms the American people and makes the U.S. dependent on others.  With a leading role in the sciences, the U.S. is assured of worldwide influence.  Without it, America risks becoming a dependent country.   Saving science is a must for the Democrats.

The judicial system should be based on the concept of justice for all.  Trump packed the Supreme Court to produce a loyal ideological majority, fixed on boosting his presidential power.  The Court’s bias needs to be brought into balance.   A Democratic government should restore a nonpartisan rule of law. 

Americans are losing health care insurance. While “Medicare for all” is too glib to persuade voters, the Democrats can promise coverage for all, which can be done through private insurers as in Germany and Switzerland.

The failure of immigration policy reveals the unwillingness of the parties to compromise.  The country needs both real border security and more immigrants.  The Democrats should declare their willingness to compromise to reach a viable, long-term policy.  They should take the lead in promoting bipartisan negotiations.

It is unrealistic to expect an early return to cooperation and negotiations between the two parties. Their differences are too deep, and the undisciplined use of social media has transformed disagreement and reasoned debate into impulsive fury.  Voters say they want pragmatic compromise, but it’s not likely. 

Voters also want less heated charges and claims.  The Democrats should pledge division without divisiveness. And practice civility.

Disagreements among Democrats are normal.  Congressional elections are not a presidential vote; what wins in New York need not be identical with what works in Georgia.  One wing of the party need not dominate it everywhere, and each can make its case district-by-district while all promote the common agenda.

Moderates and progressives can pursue their agendas and avoid speaking ill of one another.  And all Democrats could now create a unified platform that states their party’s core goals. It’s not an either-or choice.

Saving Social Security before it's broke

 

Saving Social Security through simple tax reform

Planning for the coming crisis

 

Gordon L. Weil

Tax reform.  Everybody talks about it but nothing happens.

President Trump might disagree.  After all, taxes were cut for the wealthiest sliver of the population and partially removed on tips.  Unlike traditional Republicans, he does not promote tax cuts to trickle down to create jobs; it’s simply a reward to the rich.

Trump’s critics say that everybody ought to “pay their fair share.”  Billionaire Warren Buffet says he pays at a lower rate than his secretary.  Paying his “fair share” would increase his taxes.  If the people like him are not taxed appropriately, the cost of government boosts the public debt, ultimately raising the tax tab through inflation.

Government spending could be reduced.  Social Security benefits will automatically be less without reform.  In 2032, its retirement reserve fund will be gone and payroll taxes will only cover 78 percent of benefits, which would have to be cut.  There’s a surplus of talk about the problem and a deficit of action.  The clock ticks on.

The 1986 tax act produced real reform.  Taxes were simplified, loopholes were eliminated, and rates were reduced.  Then, with the help of Congress, the big players went to work gaming the new rates and cutting their taxes.  Simplification was lost, together with real reform.  Renewed tax reform could recover some of the 1986 progress.

Taxes could be simple, with fewer loopholes – deductions, exemptions and special rates.  Revenues could increase with lower rates.  Administering the tax system would cost less.  The wealthiest would pay their fair share, supporting government services from which they benefit.  But the wealthiest would get around a new round of tax reform. 

What worries some people about the talk of tax reform is the language of the most aggressive would-be reformers.  Advocates make the system sound so deeply unfair today, that confiscating wealth would be justified.  These extreme reformers attack “oligopoly.”  In turn, they are attacked as “socialists.”  The result?  Talking about tax reform makes a lot of people feel uneasy.

The temperature of the debate could be lowered by learning a couple of lessons from the current tax system.

Trump falsely claims that he eliminated taxes on Social Security.   Instead, he successfully added a limited, three-year tax cut for many seniors, which he claimed cancelled the tax on their benefit payments.  Though it did not fully cover the tax, Trump successfully sold the temporary measure as a major Social Security reform.   Marketing matters.

Social Security contributions are paid at the source.  The party that pays a person’s income also pays the Social Security contribution for itself and the recipient directly to the government.  It’s a flat rate, with no loopholes.  The contribution base is capped at a specific income ($184,500 in 2026); any higher payroll income is free from any contribution.

Social Security can be saved and taxes reformed with no increase for more than 90 percent of taxpayers by a simple reform.  It would not touch the Internal Revenue Code and could readily be adopted by Congress.

The cap on income subject to a Social Security contribution should be eliminated and the definition of income should be changed.  Income to any taxpayer from any source could be subject to the contribution.

The Social Security contribution is now based only on wages paid to individuals.  The base could include all income paid for wages, government payments and investments.  That way, tax evasion by failing to accept a wage could be avoided.

The annual amount of U.S. personal income above $200,000 is estimated at $7.5 to $8 trillion.  The Social Security self-employed tax rate of 12.4 percent would produce about $1 trillion a year from individuals. That would cover the Social Security shortfall, with the surplus going into general federal revenues to fund debt payments, tax cuts or increased benefits.

(Medicare contributions are not subject to an earnings cap.) 

This reform would increase taxes on the wealthiest without allowing loopholes.  With payments to the government coming directly from the source, the taxpayer would not take any action.  Benefits need not be changed.

Companies could also be made subject to making Social Security and Medicare contributions on their retained profits. No loopholes would be available. If corporations have the rights of individuals, they should be treated like them and be contributors.   These contributions would have to be meshed with existing corporate taxes. 

Major individual and corporate contributors might argue that higher taxes thwart their investment in growth.  Economic studies question that argument.

This reform could be marketed, à la Trump, as “Save Social Security,” reassuring lower-income recipients and getting an indecisive Congress off the hook.  Social Security already has elements of income redistribution, so the reform would be doing nothing new.

This could be one way to deal with deficit spending and Social Security.  It’s worth a look.

 

Trump conducts foreign policy like a business

 

Trump policy: ‘Beat ‘em or buy ‘em’

Foreign affairs as a business

 

Gordon L. Weil

In a competitive world, one rule keeps cropping up. 

The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding is a prime example.  The rule is “beat ΄em or buy ΄em.”

By any standard existing beyond the confines of the White House, President Trump led the U.S. into defeat in its effort, along with Israel, to strip all power from Iran.  Trump now hopes to extract economic advantage from the ashes of military failure.

He learned this rule in the real estate business.  One way to beat a competitor is to buy it.  Your market share increases and you reduce competition.  You argue that the loser should be happy, because you bought him off generously.   His pride has a price.  Pay it and his pain is lubricated by cash.  If necessary, you can make him your subordinate partner.

The Iran war was sold as a military necessity, aimed at preventing it from acquiring a nuclear weapon to threaten the Middle East.   Its leadership could be forced into submission, ending the country’s support for Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, terrorist groups staging furious opposition to Palestinian subjugation.

From that perspective, Iran was not defeated and could develop a weapon superior to nuclear arms – control of the Strait of Hormuz.  The Iran war revealed the limits of American power.

The MOU alternative to unattainable military victory would tame Iran by investment and economic recovery.  Prosperity may be a better weapon than missiles.  Iran will become more integrated with Europe and North America, reducing it as a threat. 

That’s difficult to accept for MAGA hardliners, who bought the exaggerated tale that Iran’s nuclear missiles could begin flying next week, when the conflict was mostly about power.  In the end, buying them when you couldn’t beat them is the card that consumer discontent with high-priced gas at the pump has forced Trump to play.

This approach explains Trump’s principal foreign policy representatives – Steve Witcoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner.  Both are real estate developers without any diplomatic experience.  Every problem to Trump and his agents can be solved by them as in business, and trained foreign policy or intelligence experts should be ignored.

That way of thinking explains why Trump claimed he could solve Russia’s war on Ukraine in a day.  All Ukraine had to do was give up some real estate, and Russia would settle.  He thought Russia would prevail sooner or later, so Ukraine would save lives by ceding territory.  He did not consider Ukraine’s desire to survive as a nation, which goes well beyond a land swap.

Consistent with his business sense, Trump believed that Ukraine would go along with his plan in return for increased American investment.  He also dabbled with the idea that Russia might be similarly bought off.   The backing of U.S. investors (and profit for American corporations) should be a sufficient incentive to seal the deal.   It wasn’t.

Trump has repeatedly used this buy-it-if-you-can’t beat-it policy.  He sees it as a great success in Venezuela, where American companies may return to exploit its massive oil reserves, and he showed he could topple its leader, if not its regime. 

He sees Gaza, wiped clean by Israel, as ripe for western-style development and the use of incentives to get the Palestinians to move out.  While it may be impossible to suppress Palestinian hopes for their own country, prosperity and emigration might work.  The real obstacle is Israel, whose hardliners simply want the U.S. to leave the land to them.

Greenland is a good example of the policy.  Trump could envisage Denmark, looking at a handsome payoff, being willing to sell the island to the U.S.  It matters less that the U.S. today could have whatever military bases it wants there than that the vainglorious president would get credit for expanding U.S. territory.

Trump’s insulting proposal to make Canada the 51st state is the same policy.  He saw that country as a weak dependency that might easily give up its pretensions of having its own culture and history to get in on his leadership.  Its goods would no longer face the artificial trade barriers he had just created.

In Iran, Ukraine, Palestine, Greenland and Canada, Trump has been confronted by nations that are willing to make sacrifices to preserve their identity.  Just as Old Glory means something to Americans, their flags stir emotions that cannot be purchased or readily suppressed. 

Given the changed nature of war caused by drones, Trump’s planes and his proposed battleship could not impose American will militarily.  Nor can Russia and maybe not even China.  Economic cooperation is far better than military action, but it is taking long and painful conflicts for Trump to understand that.

Still, something’s missing that goes beyond war or foreign policy as a business.  Respect for others.  With that, foreign policy might work better.

Maine primaries show Democrats could win big

 

Maine primaries show Democrats could win big

But RCV unduly complicated

 

Gordon L. Weil

Maine’s unusual primary elections produced expected results, but raised new puzzles.

In the Democratic primary for governor, former House Speaker Hannah Pingree, who had finished second initially, defeated Nirav Shah, the former Maine CDC director.  Her win came thanks to an unusual ranked-choice-voting ticket.  Pingree and two other candidates asked voters to rank them, skipping Shah and Angus King III.

Pingree, former Senate President Troy Jackson and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, were experienced state leaders and sought to ensure that newcomers Shah and King should not represent the party.  Pingree received more second choice support from others on the ticket to pass Shah.  Voters agreed with the unified ticket strategy.

Proponents of RCV probably had not thought of electoral tickets to the extent this one worked.  Clearly, each of the three wanted a like-minded candidate with a good state record to the point of being willing to risk their own chances.

In the Republican primary, Bobby Charles, the first-round frontrunner, won the election.  A loyal Trumper, he faced competitors whose general election backing seems to be in doubt. He might have lost to more unified opposition.  He may now try to move more toward the center. If his opponents remain cool to him, he’s in trouble, because Pingree does not face defections.

Charles’ win opens the door to Rick Bennett, the moderate Republican running as an independent, who could pick up the GOP defectors.  But he will need independents and Democrats, so he must take votes from Pingree.  She favors ending Maine’s selection of presidential electors by congressional district, so he could differ from her on that issue.

In the Second District Democratic House primary, State Auditor Matt Dunlap defeated Joe Baldacci, the former Bangor city council member who had been endorsed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.  Though Dunlap is seen as more progressive, he is known as a gun rights advocate.

National Democratic endorsements of Baldacci and Gov. Janet Mills in her failed run for the Senate nomination suggest that the national party ought to stay out of Democratic primary races.  Leaders might suppose they can pick general election winners better than the locals, as Trump does among Republicans, but they can’t, and their meddling can hurt fundraising.

Both the Senate and the Second District races are critically important to the Democratic effort to take congressional control, allowing them to bring Trump somewhat under legislative control. But that significance does not make Washington wiser about Maine politics than the local folks.  It’s not over, but more Maine campaign mistakes will likely be made by outsiders.

The Maine primaries sent a message about the November elections that may be reflected nationally.  While the pundits focus on the redistricting battles meant to reduce Democratic seats, especially those held by Blacks, and on swing districts where seats could flip, they miss the possibility of something bigger.

Twice as many Democrats as Republicans voted in the Maine primaries.  Even if the Second District congressional race contributed, the margin was large nonetheless.  Democrats are fired up and Republicans seem dispirited, possibly because of the high consumer prices resulting from the Iran war and fatigue with Sen. Collins’ support for Trump.

In Texas, the Democratic Senate primary was also impressive.  They may have slightly edged the Republicans in their primary.  This showing is unusual in Texas, a reliably red state. 

If these are omens of political enthusiasm, then a Blue Wave is possible.  Traditional district-by-district analyses could be less useful if the nation has tired of Trump.  As with Democrats in 2024, many unhappy Republicans could stay home.  Big campaign spending might help the GOP, but huge outlays have limited effectiveness past a certain point. 

Trump has succeeded in creating doubts about the honesty of vote counting, though he lacks evidence.  Democrats have gone overboard attempting to counter such doubts.  The Maine primary RCV count was a prime example.  It took ten days between voting and the final count, all because of an overblown effort to achieve perfect accuracy.

Votes are supposed to be counted in the municipality where they are cast.  In RCV, Maine allows only first-choice winners to be counted locally, leaving later rounds to the state. Ballots or electronic data must be transported to Augusta.

But local counts of all voting would let winners be tentatively calculated in a day.  The state count could determine the final numbers, which would not vary significantly from the sum of local counts.  Counting would be quicker and depend less on the opaque operation of computers, reducing opportunities for false claims about vote tampering.

Under the Maine Constitution, plurality voting must be used in races for governor and the Legislature.  Using RCV for federal races and primaries creates confusion.

Maine has created an unduly complicated system.  It treats voters as ignorant or lazy.