Trump policy-making: a new version of 'Whack-a-mole'

Gordon L. Weil

"Whack-a-mole" is an old arcade game that's an exercise in futility.  It has come to mean that each time you try to solve a problem, another problem pops up.

In the original game, players would hit the mole on the head, forcing it back into its hole.  Another would pop up, and players had to move fast to hit each new one.  Satisfaction from whacking each mole did not last long.

Much American policy under President Trump is like playing Whack-a-mole.  In trying to fulfill his campaign promises, each problem Trump attacks seems to create another. 

Take China.  It pursues unfair trade policies and has a trade surplus with the U.S.  It also steals American trade secrets and forces U.S. companies to turn them over, if they want to do business in the huge Chinese market.

Trump whacked China by raising tariffs on its exports, a move reducing trade by making their goods more expensive.  He believes that will bring them to the bargaining table, where the U.S. can win concessions.

But higher tariffs raise prices for American consumers.  U.S. agriculture loses markets in China when it retaliates by increasing its own tariffs and buys elsewhere.  The trade deficit with China has grown a little worse, according to official statistics.

More moles.  Quit the Trans Pacific Partnership and lose allies opposing China and farm exports to Japan.  Meet with the North Korean leader without result, but boost his international standing.  Force a North American trade deal, creating hostility with neighbors. 

Taxes are too high, stifling economic development, Trump says.  They should be cut, notably for the middle class and for business, which will invest the money with the profits yielding offsetting tax revenues.  Smack that mole.

In 2017, the GOP lowered taxes on the biggest taxpayers, also supposedly the biggest investors.  It also allowed corporations to bring foreign profits home and cut the corporate tax rate.

But the tax bill's economic effect faded by 2019.  Corporations used added funds to buy back their stock and increase executive pay, with only a portion going into new productive capacity.  Federal debt grew faster than the promised new tax revenues.  That's the new mole.

Or immigration, Trump's signature issue.  He warned that Mexican gangsters and rapists were streaming into the U.S.  Building a wall, paid for by Mexico, would end the problem.  Meanwhile, separating immigrant families is stepped up, supposedly to serve as a deterrent.

But keeping his promise depended on Congress and Mexico, and neither agreed with him.  Immigrants arrived in even higher numbers.  They were not Mexicans, but mostly from Central America and Africa.  Instead of U.S. aid to slow the flow at the source, it was cut.  Americans were shocked by immigrant family separations. 

Undeterred, Trump promised to sweep up millions of undocumented immigrants and deport them.  But his immigration agencies were caught by surprise and were unready for the task.  The president backed off, saying he wouldn't carry out the threat if the Democrats agreed to his demands to change the immigration laws.

The mole: Iran.  The nuclear deal with Iran was unsatisfactory, because 15 years later Iran could choose to resume its production of nuclear fuel.  Also, the deal did not halt Iran's aggressive moves in the Middle East.

The U.S. withdrew from the deal and has put strong economic pressure on European participants to force them to stop buying Iranian oil.  No direct talks with Iran.

Iran announced that, if the U.S. stops its oil exports, it will restart nuclear fuel development that would have been forestalled under the deal.  The situation became more tense than it was under the now-rejected agreement, as both sides rattle their sabers.

When Iran shot down an American drone, which the U.S. says was over international waters, Trump readied a retaliatory strike, but then backed off.  He said the U.S. did not want to cause 150 deaths.  Is it possible the U.S. was not absolutely sure of the drone's location?

Trump has had some big successes.  He has set a new record in sustaining President Obama's economic recovery.  He has induced European countries to increase NATO-related spending.  He now has China's attention.

But he usually announces immediate solutions – Whack-a-mole – instead of traditionally less dramatic, incremental measures, creating new problems. 

Will the oncoming campaign and what he has learned as president lead Trump to cut back on playing the game?

In his recent immigration and Iran reversals, Trump may have begun to recognize that his sudden policy announcements raise new issues and don't finally settle matters.

Separation of church and state slowly erodes

Gordon L. Weil          

This week, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that a large Latin cross on public land in Maryland was no longer a religious symbol, but merely a tribute to fallen American soldiers of any faith.  Government was not giving special status to a Christian symbol, it ruled.

This blurring of the line between church and state takes place in a country in which religious belief is increasingly given special status.

We now run the risk of government a la carte, a system in which people can choose which laws they are willing to obey.

When religious belief conflicts with public policy, individuals may demand a choice not to obey the law.  Vaccination, same-sex marriage and abortion all raise this issue.

The Constitution's drafters thought they had avoided such conflicts.  Government can neither endorse any religion nor prevent people from practicing their religion or none at all. 

Of course, government leaders are influenced in their policies by their opinions and religious beliefs.  They may be guided by those beliefs, but they must stop short of imposing them on others.  Neutral laws, applying to all, are supposed to be adopted by government in the name of the people.

This approach arose from the emphasis on personal freedom, central to the American political system.  The threat, as Europe's history taught, was that government would force religion, perhaps even a specific religion, on the people. 

In practice, government did not impose religion on anybody, and it accommodated a wide variety of religious beliefs.  Such action was not merely meant to prevent laws that endangered the free exercise of religion.  So long as others were not harmed, it served to facilitate individual belief.

A clear example has been conscientious objector status.  When men were required to provide military service, those who refused to kill another person, even in defense of their country, could be assigned non-combat duty.

The risk to others of allowing some people not to obey the law may result from a conflict between religious belief and the public interest as defined by government.  That has happened in recent years over the issue of vaccination.

Decades ago, medical science demonstrated that inoculation against certain diseases could prevent their spread, even to the point of eliminating them.  Starting vaccination among children was usually the most effective method of preventing the spread of illness.

Without scientific evidence, but as a matter of belief, some people concluded that even if vaccinations prevented some diseases, they caused other maladies.  As a result, they chose to opt out of government-required vaccinations, a practice that was adopted by some religious groups.

While there was no evidence to support the belief that vaccinations caused illnesses, there was mounting evidence that the absence of vaccinations could allow the spread of fatal diseases that had almost been eliminated.  In short, opting out has an effect on others, not merely the children who were not vaccinated.

Vaccinations are under state control, and previously only two states denied a religious exemption from required inoculations.  With the spread of measles this year, the number of states accepting only a medical exemption has grown to five, including Maine, which acted this year.

A conflict between religious belief and public policy has also arisen as a result of the Affordable Care Act requiring access to contraception.  Before the passage of the ACA, the U.S. Supreme Court, led by conservative Justice Antonin Scalia, ruled that religious belief could not overrule a neutral law of general application.

Congress then passed a law requiring courts to decide if a law subject to dispute on religious grounds was the least burdensome way of accomplishing a public purpose and, if not, to overturn it.

The result was that a company can inform the government it will not provide contraceptive coverage under the ACA, because such coverage is against the religious beliefs of its owners.  The government may then tell the insurer to provide such coverage.

Undoubtedly, the greatest conflict has arisen on abortion.  As a matter of religious belief, some find that abortion amounts to taking a life, while many others see it as a legal medical procedure, performed at the discretion of a woman.

While the Supreme Court has ruled that abortion is not prohibited by the Constitution or laws, the controversy continues.  Under their control of medical procedures, some states have imposed conditions intended to virtually prevent abortions.

In contrast, Maine this year required insurance coverage for abortions and funded this coverage in the low-income health plan

Conflicts between neutral laws and religious belief take on huge political roles.  Parties may exploit them as "wedge" issues, adopting positions on them to gain almost blind support for their policies on many other issues.  

Far from the Constitution's intent, religious belief may end up getting special consideration in government decisions.  The result could be an expanding menu of government policy options, with choice left to individuals, rather than a uniform set of general laws.   

Trump's the issue, but congressional math matters – especially Maine

Gordon L. Weil

Last week, President Trump travelled to Europe, jumped into British politics, patronized the Irish Prime Minister and attacked House Speaker Pelosi while he sat in front of American war graves at Normandy.

It's no surprise that Democrats and "Never Trumpers" want to see him defeated next year.  But Trump won't be the sole focus of the 2020 campaign.  Most Democratic presidential hopefuls are trying to keep voters' attention on issues.  And much will depend on congressional races.

In fact, Republicans may focus more on Trump than will the Democrats.  Because he has broad backing within his party, they strongly support his reelection with its possible coattail effect for their congressional candidates.  If the party controls the presidency and the House or Senate, it rules.

For the Democrats, there's a dilemma.  Should they try to unify around a progressive platform or seek to draw moderate voters away from Trump Republicans?  It's less about Trump than a focus on the political math.  In that calculation, Maine matters.

Looking at the House of Representatives, in 2018 the Democrats picked up a surprising number of seats in formerly GOP districts.  Not only was the vote about Trump, but it reflected reduced ability of Republican state legislatures to gerrymander, resulting in more fairly designed districts.   

The GOP will target first-term Democrats like Maine's Second District Representative Jared Golden.  He has remained independent of his party's liberal wing in hopes of boosting his narrow margin in last year's election. 

Even state legislative races will matter to congressional math.  The new legislatures will draw House district lines for the next 10 years.  Republicans have benefitted in recent decades, but their gains could be reduced or erased by Democratic legislatures or neutral redistricting commissions.

Politically influenced district lines exist all over the country.  Even with just two districts in Maine, redrawing the line could improve Democratic chances of holding both House seats.  Moving some of the party's voters into the Second District could also reduce the chances of the GOP picking up one of the state's electoral votes.

As for the U.S. Senate, Democrats held 25 of the 35 contested seats in the 2018 elections.  They surprised the pundits, losing only a net two seats.  The GOP gained only a 53-47 majority.

Next year, the situation flips with 22 GOP seats up for grabs out of 34 to be contested.  The Democrats may find that picking up the four seats needed for a safe majority will be difficult. Much depends on the mood of the voters, incumbents' records and turnout, especially among African Americans, women and the young.

Sen. Susan Collins is considered vulnerable because of her vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh and the plentiful Democratic money that could match her large war chest.  She remains popular, so much depends upon whether the Democrats can field a strong candidate.

Collins's election could prove to be a key factor in the battle for the Senate control.  If the Democrats fail to win a majority, Mitch McConnell would remain in charge, assuming he holds onto his own seat in Kentucky.  He needs Collins' support.

This congressional math suggests that there will be more to the elections next year than an up-or-down vote on Trump.  But the media will keep him the focus.

The Democrats seek to win by attacking his trade tactics that cost jobs and raised prices and the GOP tax cuts favoring the wealthy.  They believe his backing can be stripped away by showing his supporters that they have been hurt by his policies.

That means Democrats may avoid making their main focus his lack of truthfulness or treatment of women, because such arguments will not necessarily move his backers.

The Republican Party is now almost totally Trump's and he enjoys overwhelming popularity within his party.  His political challenge is how far beyond the party, whose supporters number less than either Democrats or independents, his appeal extends.  He cannot win without votes from more than Republicans.

Trump relishes the challenge and stays on message.  While he must avoid alienating his congressional allies, he pushes the limits of traditional constraints on presidential action. 

His brash style seems to remain popular with many voters.  Still, Trump's 2016 victory may owe more to a Democratic candidate who failed to inspire her party's faithful in key states like Pennsylvania and Michigan than to his appeal.  

In 2020, while the Democrats' policies emphasize women, the young, consumers and the environment, he believes he could benefit from the extended economic recovery, immigration fears and nostalgia for the America of yesteryear.

Impeach Trump? Good case on either side

Gordon L. Weil

Independence Day comes in less than a month.  Many remember it as marking end of British rule over the American colonies.  But, as the Declaration of Independence itself stated, the purpose was to end "all allegiance to the British crown."

The Declaration is not a collection of grievances about Britain.  It is a list of complaints about King George III.  For example, it charges: "He has obstructed the administration of justice...."

Because of their experience under the British king, the Founders worried about a strong executive.  For its first 13 years, U.S. lacked the office of president.  Congress had the lead role.

Congress has since given the president great powers.  Some occupants of the Oval Office claim the office is "unitary," giving the president supreme power in the government.  Forget checks and balances.  The president may exercise even greater powers than those given by the Constitution.

The drafters of the Constitution worried about such a theory.  One protective measure they included was impeachment and removal from office.  They said that federal officials who engaged in "high crimes and misdemeanors" in their conduct while in office or to gain election could be removed by Congress.

Impeachment talk grows.  More Democrats, resentful of President Trump's breach of constitutional and government traditions, now favor it.  Opponents are wary, but still complain that calls for impeachment are purely political.

The Constitution's drafters understood impeachment was a political act by elected politicians.  Otherwise, they might have turned it over to the Supreme Court, supposedly politically independent.  The Founders required a two-thirds Senate majority for removal from office, reducing the chances of purely partisan action.

The current discussion is based mainly on Special Counsel Robert Mueller's conclusion that Trump may have tried to obstruct justice, but that he cannot be prosecuted while in office.  Mueller made it obvious that the only way to decide the question now was up to Congress.

Why impeach?

It is the right thing to do.  Mueller has provided evidence of possible obstruction of justice.  Impeachment could focus on alleged obstruction and not the host of Democratic complaints.

Evidence that Trump tried to block the Mueller investigation merits hearings to yield a conclusion.  President Trump and Attorney-General Barr should not be allowed to whitewash the findings. 

Impeachment by the Democratic House is almost certain to result from an investigation.  It should not matter that the Republican Senate would not remove him.

Former Maine GOP House and Senate member Bill Cohen advocates a House investigation.  He believes that, as the facts are brought out, sentiment for further steps against Trump would grow.

That was Cohen's experience on the House committee that voted the impeachment of President Nixon in 1974.  Public opinion initially opposed ousting Nixon, but, by the time he resigned, he was sure to be removed by the Senate.

Another view is that an impeachment investigation will benefit Democrats politically by undermining Trump's support.  Some Republicans could no longer stick with their president, improving the chances for Democratic candidates in next year's elections.

Why avoid impeachment?

It won't work.  While a Democratic House might impeach Trump, a Republican Senate would not remove him.  Only if House and, possibly, Senate Republicans begin talking about impeachment would it be worth considering.

Short of impeaching the president, Congress could limit the powers it has generously given the White House.  That would take a veto-proof majority, but would Republicans split with Trump, even to help Congress restore its constitutional role? 

Impeachment might seem excessively partisan.  Just as the misguided GOP House impeachment of President Bill Clinton hurt the Republicans in the following elections, the same might be true for the Democrats in 2020.  The process could be divisive, exactly what many Americans say they don't want.

Politically, it might even help Trump.  He could point to the Democrats as being so unhappy about the results of the 2016 elections that they prevented the Wall and other useful legislation and even tried to reverse the result.  He could cast himself as the victim of the opposition.

Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi opposes impeachment, because she fears it would jeopardize chances of gaining moderate GOP support and would draw attention away from key issues.  Many of the party's presidential candidates favor impeachment, seeing it as a way to rally primary voters.

The impeachment process would get in the way of doing almost any other government business.  The U.S. would be buried in tweets and counter-tweets.

Take your pick.  Congress faces a tough decision with no easy answer.